African tropical wave 99L slowly organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:26 PM GMT on July 31, 2012

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A tropical wave (Invest 99L) near 9°N 41°W, halfway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week as it moves westward at 10 - 15 mph. Visible satellite loops show that the disturbance now has a moderate amount of poorly-organized heavy thunderstorms that continue to slowly increase in intensity and areal coverage. There is no surface circulation, but some counter-clockwise rotation of the large-scale cloud pattern is evident. Water vapor satellite loops show that 99L has a reasonably moist environment. The latest Saharan air layer analysis shows that the dry air from the Sahara lies to the north of 99L and is currently not affecting the storm. WInd shear over the disturbance is a light 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is well above the 26.5°C (80°F) threshold typically needed to allow formation of a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Forecast for 99L
Wind shear is expected to remain light through Friday, and ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. However, a band of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots associated with the subtropical jet stream lies just to the north of 99L, and it would not be a surprise to see 99L experience some higher shear conditions than are currently forecast. The farther north 99L gets, the higher the shear it will experience, and the SHIPS model is predicting shear in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for Saturday - Sunday, as the storm works its way to 15°N. The disturbance is at 9°N, which is close enough to the Equator that the storm will have some difficultly getting spinning. Most of the models are showing some slow development of 99L. There are some major differences in the predicted forward speed of 99L, with the ECMWF and UKMET models predicting the storm will reach the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and the GFS predicting a later arrival, on Saturday. At 8 am Tuesday, NHC gave 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning. I expect the storm will begin having trouble with tendrils of dry air reaching down from the north at times this week, but give 99L a 50% chance of eventually developing into Tropical Storm Ernesto sometime in the next ten days. Residents and visitors to the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate heavy rains and strong winds from 99L beginning to affect the islands as early as Friday morning. The long-range fate of 99L next week is uncertain. A track west to west-northwest through the Caribbean, or to the northwest towards the U.S. East Coast are both possible. The storm is less likely to survive if it heads northwest towards the U.S.

Extreme heat in the Central U.S.
The withering heat in America's heartland continued on Monday, with high temperatures of 112° recorded in Winfield, Kansas and Searcy, Arkansas. Little Rock, Arkansas hit 111°, their 3rd hottest temperature ever record, behind the all time record of 114° set just last year on August 3, and the 112° reading of 7/31/1986. Wichita and Coffeyville in Kansas both hit 111° Monday, and in Oklahoma, Enid, Tulsa Jones Airport, and Chandler all topped out at 111°. Carr Creek, Missouri hit 110°, the hottest temperature measured in the state so far this year. Highs temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday in this region could reach 110° again, as the most extreme heat this week will stay focused over Oklahoma and surrounding states.

Jeff Masters

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hmmm


could this be right lol


Bird Land, Altus, OK

temper

111.4 °F

heat index

288 °F

dew point

111 °F


99%
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol. He's got you hook, line, and sinker.


No.
You made your own hook, line, and sinker, an then bit it.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

^ Yeah Mississippi, this is really JFV. LOL.


Lol. You don't have the emails that I have, bud.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Leeward islands are the one I believe north of Guadeloupe.
Windward islands are the one to the south.

Leeward Islands is from Dominica, north of the 15° to the Virgin Islands.
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Quoting Pocamocca:
He will be getting into much better conditions soon.



I see much lessening sheer near the islands in the days to come when he makes it that way. But after that, I don't see any reason why that sheer is suppose to lessen. I have not checked the SHIPS 12Z run for the sheer potential but if 99L comes anywhere near Jamaica, just not quite sure how it'll make it....CDO or not.


^ Yeah Mississippi, this is really JFV. LOL.

Sarcasm Flag: ON
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
Make way for the beast, make way for the beast ...

Click for animation ...

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Last frames look impresive...

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1111. VR46L
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
for 99L and the TWO and formation I think
8pm 50% red
2am 70% red
5am formation of TD 4 or TS Ernesto

for 99L's track I say steady W-WNW track untill it reaches 75-85W where it will then turn NW-NNW

for 99L strength after formation
before landfall of E Caribbean Islands 70-75mph
when it reaches 73W 85-90mph
when it reaches 75W 100mph (ok this part I am being a little nice about- when it reaches 78-80W goes to 114mph as it hits the very very very high tropical cyclone heat potentials in the W caribbean)
when it reaches 85W and entering the GOM 120mph
and I will stop there

NOTE: BEFORE YOU START BICKERING TO ME THIS IS JUST MY THOUGHS ON THIS POSSIBLE OUTCOME...


Who Knows at this stage ...I like seeing peoples opinions fair dues to you for having the courage to say your opinion on 99L
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
looking at top 10 best anolog track for 99L
is emily 05



I think 99L may take this one

Haha funny u shuld mention Emily of 05 cause thats exactly what i was starting to think it may look like
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1109. pcola57
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
An old research paper (love the old satt pics) from 1969 on a storm (Anna in this case) breaking away from the ITCZ and the observed "wavelike" pertubations in the ITCZ: looks familiar to what is trying to happen at the moment:

Link


Part of the paper by Dr. Agee:

Any tropical cyclone resulting from a breaking ITCZ wave may later intensify or weaken depending upon the conditions of the storm’s new atmospheric environment. Whether or not the tropical storm develops into a hurricane appears immaterial to the generating mechanism proposed here. An ITCZ wave that is amplifying, breaking, and shedding a cyclonically rotating vortex is an apparent means of hurricane genesis. Although beyond the scope of this note, a theoretical study of this problem is clearly in order.


That's a good read and pics like you mentioned.. :)
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Strong cell just came through south beachside New Smyrna.


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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
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looking at top 10 best anolog track for 99L
is emily 05



I think 99L may take this one
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
1104. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think that really narrows it down.


They really went on a limb with this one, eh, TA? LOL
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Quoting floridaboy14:
how many days will pass before it reaches jamaica? by the time it gets that far the favorable shear will spread west for all we know

8-10 days.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, for one, she's a girl and has actually posted good information on here without insulting anybody.


Lol. He's got you hook, line, and sinker.
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Quoting Grothar:

I think that really narrows it down.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
Quoting MississippiWx:


Psychopath.


Jason is the psychopath, Janiel is just a Florida-hater.
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Quoting Pocamocca:

Lol. I haven't been here long, but weren't you the one that mentioned a few weeks back about living through the Xenia tornado or something....

I couldn't help but wonder how horrific that must have been!!
Yep......... Horrific.....Xenia tornado and 3 hurricanes........ "Don't follow me"
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think it can make it fairly far into the Caribbean, but that shear around Jamaica will kill it:

how many days will pass before it reaches jamaica? by the time it gets that far the favorable shear will spread west for all we know
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1095. Grothar
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol. I beg to differ. Unless you can show me something otherwise, I know who this one is too.

Well, for one, she's a girl and has actually posted good information on here without insulting anybody.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think it can make it fairly far into the Caribbean, but that shear around Jamaica will kill it:


that won't be a problem its expected to push off to the N leaving the caribbean with low shear for 99L
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
My prediction is that this will effect Windward Islands as a tropical storm, intensify into a CAT I or II in the Caribbean and eventually threaten Yucatan/ GOM Interests as a significant hurricane. But I don't wanna forecast by my prediction, so I'll just say "a lot can happen with this system".
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Quoting Pocamocca:

I hope mostly good things though.
Some good.Some bad....... I still get in trouble myself... I inherited the family "foot in mouth disease"
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1089. yoboi
Quoting MississippiWx:


Psychopath.



oh ok....
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Quoting Levi32:


It's way too large. The wave axis is too long and the associated inverted-V structure is too broad to consolidate into a low pressure center in any reasonable amount of time, and the surface winds north of the Bahamas are out of the south now as that frontal boundary lies along the SE US coast, which means surface convergence is about to be taken away from the wave except for the trade winds coming into it from the east.
Fair enough, but a buoy just south-southwest of PR shows southeasterly winds right now, so I guess we need to keep our eyes open.

Too bad there aren't any buoy's that I can find further west, and due south of Hispaniola.

Anybody have the latest ASCAT of this area, I can't find the link?




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1087. LargoFl


WEST ALLIS, Wis. July 31, 2012 (AP)







Chris Covelli planted 1,000 zucchini seeds on his farm in southern Wisconsin this spring. Only a quarter sprouted in the parched soil. A few weeks later, he planted 1,000 more seeds and doubled his irrigation. This time, nothing came up.

Covelli also lost his broccoli and green beans to the drought that now covers two-thirds of the nation. Under pressure to fill the boxes he delivers weekly to families who buy annual subscriptions of produce, he recently threw in purslane, which he describes as a vitamin-rich, "delicious weed" that tastes like lettuce.

Small fruit and vegetable farmers throughout the Midwest are struggling with unusual heat and a once-in-decades drought. Some have lost crops, while others are paying more to irrigate. Most aren't growing enough to sell profitably to wholesalers, and sales at farmers markets are down. Those with community supported agriculture programs, or CSAs, are looking for ways to keep members happy, or at least satisfied enough that they'll sign up again next year.

Covelli said he and his crew have spent every day in the field, often in 100-degree heat, in an effort to deliver the vegetables promised to families who pay $14 to $45 per week. So far, he said, they've delivered most of what they promised, although they've had to get creative with the addition of drought-hardy items like purslane.






AP


A farm hand harvests potatoes a month early... View Full Caption



"There's no secret," said Covelli, who owns Tomato Mountain Farms in Brooklyn, Wis. "You just do what you have to do. If that means doing more plantings, trying different crops, waking up at 2 a.m. to move the irrigation pipe, we do it. That's what hard work is."

Other farmers have not fared as well. Bob Borchardt, who co-owns Harvest Moon Farms in Viroqua, Wis., lost most of his greens, including chard and kale. He also runs a CSA, but said thus far, he's only been able to deliver about 20 percent of what he planned. He hopes to make it up to members when his heirloom tomatoes come in next month.

Meanwhile, he's been in dire need of cash. To tide him over, he sold "sponsorships" of two fields for a total of $5,000. The Illinois family who bought the sponsorships will be able to pick from the field, be treated to a home-cooked meal on the land and have a corporate logo or family portrait posted among the plants.

"We're not out of the woods yet, but we are optimistic," Borchardt said. "All we're thinking about now is getting through this year and staying in business."

Unlike farmers who grow corn, soybeans and other crops sold as commodities, vegetable farmers don't have insurance to cover them in case of drought or flooding.

But even those who have vegetables to sell say it has been a bad year.

Anna Ertl, whose family runs a farm in Raymond, Wis., near the Illinois border, shook her head as she watched a trickle of customers meander through a farmers market in the Milwaukee suburb of West Allis. In front of her was a table with pickles, sweet onions and several dozen zucchinis.

"You hear so much bad stuff in the media (about harvests), but people need to come down here and see what we have," Ertl said. "This is our livelihood. This is how we survive."

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Quoting yoboi:


who is jfv on here???


Psychopath.
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1084. yoboi
Quoting MississippiWx:


If any of you didn't know already, this is JFV as well. Fairly obvious through the emails I've gotten from this person today.


who is jfv on here???
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Quoting Pocamocca:

i've got lots to learn here on this blog I guess!!! lol
"LOTS"
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

For a change, you are actually incorrect here.


Lol. I beg to differ. Unless you can show me something otherwise, I know who this one is too.
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I think it can make it fairly far into the Caribbean, but that shear around Jamaica will kill it:

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An old research paper (love the old satt pics) from 1969 on a storm (Anna in this case) breaking away from the ITCZ and the observed "wavelike" pertubations in the ITCZ: looks familiar to what is trying to happen at the moment:

Link


Part of the paper by Dr. Agee:

Any tropical cyclone resulting from a breaking ITCZ wave may later intensify or weaken depending upon the conditions of the storm’s new atmospheric environment. Whether or not the tropical storm develops into a hurricane appears immaterial to the generating mechanism proposed here. An ITCZ wave that is amplifying, breaking, and shedding a cyclonically rotating vortex is an apparent means of hurricane genesis. Although beyond the scope of this note, a theoretical study of this problem is clearly in order.
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1079. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
502 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN LEXINGTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...
CENTRAL RICHLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...FOREST ACRES...COLUMBIA...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 458 PM EDT...OVER THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
DOWNTOWN COLUMBIA IN THE LAST HALF HOUR. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOODING
IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS IN COLUMBIA...ESPECIALLY THE 5 POINTS AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FIVE POINTS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF THE FIVE
POINTS AREA EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM ALONG ROCKY BRANCH CREEK. THIS
INCLUDES MAXCY GREGG PARK...THE PICKENS BLOSSOM STREET INTERSECTION
AND THE WHALEY MAIN STREET INTERSECTION.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...TOLL FREE 1 877 6 3 3...6 7 7 2.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


If any of you didn't know already, this is JFV as well. Fairly obvious through the emails I've gotten from this person today.

For a change, you are actually incorrect here.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
Quoting washingtonian115:
May not be to out of the realm of possible outcomes.All depends if shear is favorable in the caribbean or not.

well as I've been trying to say for the past day and night and still say it now shear will be no problem

sorry for the cap forgot I had the caps lock on
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Quoting MississippiWx:


If any of you didn't know already, this is JFV as well. Fairly obvious through the emails I've gotten from this person today.


i dont know about that
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you are trying to hard
Well said Keeper..... The rookies are trying to make a name for themselves
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my thinking and please dont argue with me on this because this is MY OPINION.... u r welcome to agree or disagree with it
8PM: 60%
11PM: 80%
2AM: 100%
5AM: TD Five
Eventually goes into the carribean
Western Carribean: Low end Cat 2 hurricane
GOM: DANGEROUS STORM
Everyone: Keep an eye on it!
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Quoting Pocamocca:
Why do you keep quoting the trolls MississippiWx? Hint: If you don't quote them or give them any attention, they will go away and find another blog/forum to disrupt.

Please.
Poca...... Give it a few years yourself...... You will understand
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
for 99L and the TWO and formation I think
8pm 50% red
2am 70% red
5am formation of TD 4 or TS Ernesto

for 99L's track I say steady W-WNW track untill it reaches 75-85W where it will then turn NW-NNW

for 99L strength after formation
before landfall of E Caribbean Islands 70-75mph
when it reaches 73W 85-90mph
when it reaches 75W 100mph (ok this part I am being a little nice about- when it reaches 78-80W goes to 114mph as it hits the very very very high tropical cyclone heat potentials in the W caribbean)
when it reaches 85W and entering the GOM 120mph
and I will stop there

NOTE: BEFORE YOU START BICKERING TO ME THIS IS JUST MY THOUGHS ON THIS POSSIBLE OUTCOME...
May not be to out of the realm of possible outcomes.All depends if shear is favorable in the caribbean or not.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17823

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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