African tropical wave 99L has potential to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:10 PM GMT on July 30, 2012

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The first African tropical wave of 2012 with a potential to develop is Invest 99L, located in the Eastern Atlantic near 9°N 36°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa. Visible satellite loops show a large area of the surrounding atmosphere has a pronounced counter-clockwise spin, though there is no surface circulation. The disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity is pretty sparse, but appears to be slowly increasing. Water vapor satellite loops show that 99L has a reasonably moist environment, and the latest Saharan air layer analysis shows that the dry air from the Sahara lies well to the north of 99L. WInd shear over the disturbance is a light 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is well above the 26.5°C (80°F) threshold typically needed to allow formation of a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Forecast for 99L
Wind shear is expected to remain light for the next five days, and ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. The disturbance is at 9°N, which is close enough to the Equator that the storm will have some difficultly getting spinning. Most of the models are showing some slow development of 99L, with the storm reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, August 3. NHC gave 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. I expect the storm will have trouble with dry air at times this week as it crosses the Atlantic, but I give 99L a 50% chance of eventually developing into Tropical Storm Ernesto sometime in the next ten days. Residents and visitors to the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate heavy rains and strong winds from 99L beginning to affect the islands as early as Friday night. The long-range fate of 99L is uncertain, but a trough of low pressure is expected to be present over the Eastern U.S. early next week, which would be capable of turning 99L more to the northwest.

Hot in the Central U.S.
The heat in America's heartland continued on Sunday, with Wichita, KS hitting 111°F, just 3° short of their all-time hottest temperature of 114° set on 8/12/1936. Other notable highs on Sunday:

111° Coffeyville, KS
111° Winfield, KS
110° Chanute, KS
110° Parsons, KS
109° Joplin, MO (all-time record is 115° on July 14, 1954)

The low temperature in Tulsa, Oklahoma this Monday morning dropped to only 88°F. This is the all-time warmest low temperature in the city since record keeping began in 1905. The previous record warmest minimum temperature was 87°F set on August 2, 2011 and July 16, 1980. The high in Tulsa Monday - Wednesday is expected to reach 110° - 111°, close to the city's all-time hottest temperature of 115° set on August 10, 1936.

Jeff Masters

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1820. ncstorm
2:40 PM GMT on August 01, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Euro 144 hrs. out:



GFS 144 hrs. out:



Euro is faster than the GFS, but both heading in a general westward path.


the models are trending more north..
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1819. Grothar
1:40 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
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1818. GetReal
1:34 PM GMT on July 31, 2012



Latest 13z run of the MOD has shifted east towards the Alabama coast on day thirteen. Very similar to an Ivan type track. Weak minimal TS trough the eastern and central Caribbean, and finally exploding into a strong hurricane just west of Jamaica. (flag on)
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1816. GeoffreyWPB
1:29 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
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1815. LargoFl
1:27 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
1814. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:26 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1813. LargoFl
1:25 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
754 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHERN CRENSHAW COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 900 AM CDT

* AT 749 AM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH WERE LOCATED ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM GREENVILLE TO 16 MILES NORTH OF LUVERNE...AND
MOVING SOUTH AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUTLEDGE... PETREY... LUVERNE...
I65 AND AL 185... I65 AND AL 10... GREENVILLE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 126 AND 139.

LAT...LON 3183 8618 3181 8620 3179 8618 3165 8620
3166 8664 3197 8672 3197 8641 3202 8641
3204 8630 3197 8629 3197 8619 3196 8618
3190 8617
TIME...MOT...LOC 1254Z 344DEG 39KT 3178 8662 3188 8635

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1812. kwgirl
1:24 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
Good morning all. I see the debate is still running concerning 99L. It looks more spread out to me this A.M. but I am only looking at a little snapshot. The blob by PR appears to have some rotation. Or is that just the shearing that makes it appear that way? Either way, it appears the blob is producing some heavy rains. Everyone have a great day today.
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1811. unknowncomic
1:24 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
Quite a blob coming down Alabama.
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1810. StormTracker2K
1:24 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
Quoting Pocamocca:

I'm thinking the same. It should find it's final resting place somewhere in the Caribbean.


Looks that way but we really have to watch and see if it can intesify some before reaching the islands because it does then 99L would turn more WNW. Basically between now and Friday is going to be key on where 99L ends up as for right now it looks like Central America.

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1809. Tropicsweatherpr
1:23 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
852 AM AST TUE JUL 31 2012

PRC015-025-035-041-057-069-077-085-095-103-109-12 3-129-151-311545-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0289.120731T1252Z-120731T1545Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ARROYO PR-CAGUAS PR-CAYEY PR-CIDRA PR-GUAYAMA PR-NAGUABO PR-JUNCOS
PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-MAUNABO PR-PATILLAS PR-SALINAS PR-SAN LORENZO
PR-YABUCOA PR-HUMACAO PR-
852 AM AST TUE JUL 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ARROYO...CAGUAS...CAYEY...CIDRA...GUAYAMA...NAGUAB O...JUNCOS...
LAS PIEDRAS...MAUNABO...PATILLAS...SALINAS...SAN LORENZO...
YABUCOA AND HUMACAO

* UNTIL 1145 AM AST

* AT 848 AM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA AND MORE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1807 6621 1819 6615 1813 6577 1811 6577
1797 6591 1796 6597 1797 6602 1795 6604
1796 6608 1793 6614

$$

SNELL
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1808. LargoFl
1:22 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
.................................for you folks in Panama city, this first line of severe storms is just the beginning, a huge rain maker is following that first line..going to be a very interesting day up there for severe weather...now im wondering WHAT..is going to happen when this gets into the gulf with those 86 degree water temps.
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1806. StormTracker2K
1:20 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
PR is getting pounded this morning.

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1805. StormJunkie
1:19 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
Quoting Pocamocca:
Junkie ~

You buying some of these models taking it straight up to Summerville, SC?


No way, I'm not convinced it will every make it out of the Carib. May pretty much stay on a western path the whole way.
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1804. LargoFl
1:19 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
735 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN HOLMES COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
CENTRAL WALTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 815 AM CDT

* AT 730 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6
MILES WEST OF DE FUNIAK SPRINGS TO 6 MILES NORTH OF
VERNON...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...PLEASANT RIDGE...WAUSAU...RED BAY...LIVE
OAK...HOLMES VALLEY...NEW HOPE...FREEPORT...BRUCE...EBRO AND
CRYSTAL LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.



LAT...LON 3078 8561 3044 8550 3043 8617 3045 8617
3047 8623 3043 8625 3046 8624 3048 8627
3079 8634
TIME...MOT...LOC 1234Z 347DEG 21KT 3070 8621 3069 8569


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1803. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:19 PM GMT on July 31, 2012

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (1210)
21:00 PM JST July 31 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Damrey (975 hPa) located at 28.9N 137.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
====================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
300 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 30.7N 129.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - southwest city of Makurazaki
48 HRS: 33.3N 124.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Yellow Sea
72 HRS: 38.0N 120.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Bohai Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SAOLA (1209)
21:00 PM JST July 31 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon South Of Okinawa

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Saola (970 hPa) located at 21.6N 123.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
400 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 23.2N 123.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - southwest of Ishigaki Island
48 HRS: 25.4N 122.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - East China Sea
72 HRS: 28.2N 119.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Overland China
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1802. washingtonian115
1:19 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
IMO 99L may be a moderate to strong tropical storm when it reaches the islands.If it runs into the caribbean then expect it to get torn apart from shear.It may make a come back in the gulf if the circulation is still in tact.If 99L goes north of the caribbean and makes an exit near P.R then expect a much more stronger system that could either A.Go out to see(hoping that happens)B.Skirt the S.E coast or C...Make landfall some where along the coast.
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1801. 19N81W
1:18 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
if 99l is that sensitive to shear its not going to do much in the caribbean which is where it is coming....sure could use some rain though!
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1800. SFLWeatherman
1:17 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
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1799. 19N81W
1:16 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
anyone have any pics from storms rolling into Panama City?
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1798. stormchaser19
1:14 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
The shear is limiting 99L a little specialy in the North part of the system,I think in the next 12-24 hours the system will look much better, the shear is supposed to be lower, models say

00 HOURS

48 HOURS
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1797. SFLWeatherman
1:14 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
9.3N 39.6W It going up now!!
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1796. washingtonian115
1:12 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
Quoting islander101010:
vis...99.might.be.done
99L is far from finished.It's only beginning.

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1795. SFLWeatherman
1:12 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
IT going up at 8AM
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1794. Grothar
1:10 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
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1792. washingtonian115
1:08 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
Quoting Pocamocca:

You are one of the best hurricane forecasters here...right up with Levi and Stormchaser2007, and ST2K

I believe you.
Thank's.All though I don't think I'm on that level yet though.
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1791. SFLWeatherman
1:08 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
700MB

500MB

200MB
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1789. Stormchaser2007
1:05 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
The NHC seems to have had trouble with the ATCF for 99L last night.

Just getting the 6z runs in now. Looks like a Caribbean Cruiser.
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1788. stoormfury
1:05 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
wave train seems to have come alive over Africa. conditions have improved over the eatl and there are a number of strong distubances . watch out
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1787. weathermanwannabe
1:04 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
Finally (before I have to get some work done), if anyone is paying attention to that big meso-scale convective complex getting ready to enter the Gulf later today, it is heading towards 20-40 knots of sheer in the Northern Gulf, but, going to rock my world here in Tallahassee later today.

Link

See Yall around lunchtime.
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1786. washingtonian115
1:03 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
I saw that African disturbance first! :).While the models were developing 99L it also developed that and turned it into at least a T.D.
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1785. StormTracker2K
1:00 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
The Panhandle of FL is getting roicked this morning. This line may make down to near Tampa later this afternoon so be careful if you Tampa north today as these storms look dangerous.



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1784. stormchaser19
1:00 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
Good news in 6z, GFS not dissipate before the islands
s
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1783. osuwxguynew
1:00 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
Quoting quasistationary:


I just ran some 925 mb models...what quick flow? Looks to be about 15 kts in about 6-7 days.

Link


Strong low level flow causing wind shear, acting to tilt whatever forms from west at low levels to east upper levels.

Saturday 12UTC as 99L crosses into eastern Caribbean through southern/central Lesser Antilles:

@850mb ~30 knots easterly
@700mb ~30-35 knots easterly
@500mb ~10-15 knots

While this is certainly not the worst/strongest flow we see in this climatologically favored area for it (and why it gets the nickname graveyard of invests), it's not favorable either.

The pouch of moisture with 99L is relatively small - making it likely that 99L will also be fairly small (models concur), which makes it especially sensitive to shear.
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1782. GeorgiaStormz
12:59 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Same general spread between CMC and GFS as yesterday morning as to 99L. CMC takes a stronger storm North of Puerto Rico and GFS has a weaker system moving into the Southern Caribbean. Basically, the CMC breaks the wave away from the ITCZ and the GFS keeps it as a low rider attached to the ITCZ and just missing the coast of South America at the last moment.

CMC

Link

GFS

Link


im leaning to the GFS since it pulled all the ensembles to the caribbean now, where most of the other models(including the euro) take 99L
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1781. stoormfury
12:58 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
99L is over 1200miles from the lesser antilles .which at its current speed is well over 4 days from reaching the islands. a lot can happen during this period of waiting ,as conditions could change for better or worse depending on what one is looking at. early days yet ,just watch and wait
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1780. weathermanwannabe
12:57 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
Same general spread between CMC and GFS as yesterday morning as to 99L. CMC takes a stronger storm North of Puerto Rico and GFS has a weaker system moving into the Southern Caribbean. Basically, the CMC breaks the wave away from the ITCZ and the GFS keeps it as a low rider attached to the ITCZ and just missing the coast of South America at the last moment.

CMC

Link

GFS

Link
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1779. StormTracker2K
12:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
we are going to get invest 90L soon.. look at the spin here at 20 west


What is going at the NHC this year as that looks impressive as well infact maybe more so than 99L.

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1778. GeorgiaStormz
12:55 PM GMT on July 31, 2012


all to a caribbean death...
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1776. GetReal
12:54 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
Quoting Pocamocca:

Wouldn't something have to become of 99L first before it can realistically be called DOOM?


99L is on the MOD schedule....
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1775. islander101010
12:52 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
vis...99.might.be.done
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1774. aspectre
12:52 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
AL, 99, 2012073106, 91N, 381W, 20, 1010, DB, 0
AL, 99, 2012073112, 93N, 396W, 20, 1010, DB, 34
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1771. GetReal
12:50 PM GMT on July 31, 2012


It is looking more and more like the M.O.D. model (model of doom) run that I mentioned yesterday may actually be spot on!!!
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1770. weathermanwannabe
12:50 PM GMT on July 31, 2012
Here is the am NCEP Caribbean discussion. Discussion as to the wave going through the Antilles right now but no mention yet as to the 20% wave:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
722 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES PROGRESSING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS NOW TO THE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. WIDESPREAD PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS ENHANCED VENTILATION EVEN MORE...WHICH CONTINUES VENTING DEEP CONVECTION BEHIND THE WAVE. TWO AREAS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED. ONE TO THE SOUTH OF PASAJE DE LA MONA...AND ANOTHER ACROSS SAN MAARTEN-ANGUILLA INTO THE EASTERN USVI.

MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING ACTIVE CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH 48-60 HRS...AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ESTABLISHING BY THAN AT 800-825 HPA. THE UKMET HAS A DRIEST SOLUTION WITH MAXIMA IN THE ORDER OF 30-35MM/DAY FOR DAY 1...WHILE THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS TOTALS OF 40-50MM/DAY AND THE GFS 55-65 MM/DAY. FROM THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE HRWRF IS SHOWING MORE REASONABLE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAN THE WRF-NMM...AS THE LATTER HAS A VERY WET SOLUTION WITH TOTALS APPROACHING 200MM/DAY. BASED ON MODEL TENDENCY AND CURRENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ORDER OF 50-75MM/DAY WITH HEAVIEST/MOST PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN/SOUTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 100MM/DAY. CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...TO LIMIT AGAIN TO SHALLOW DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)


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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.