African tropical wave 99L has potential to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:10 PM GMT on July 30, 2012

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The first African tropical wave of 2012 with a potential to develop is Invest 99L, located in the Eastern Atlantic near 9°N 36°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa. Visible satellite loops show a large area of the surrounding atmosphere has a pronounced counter-clockwise spin, though there is no surface circulation. The disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity is pretty sparse, but appears to be slowly increasing. Water vapor satellite loops show that 99L has a reasonably moist environment, and the latest Saharan air layer analysis shows that the dry air from the Sahara lies well to the north of 99L. WInd shear over the disturbance is a light 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is well above the 26.5°C (80°F) threshold typically needed to allow formation of a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Forecast for 99L
Wind shear is expected to remain light for the next five days, and ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. The disturbance is at 9°N, which is close enough to the Equator that the storm will have some difficultly getting spinning. Most of the models are showing some slow development of 99L, with the storm reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, August 3. NHC gave 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. I expect the storm will have trouble with dry air at times this week as it crosses the Atlantic, but I give 99L a 50% chance of eventually developing into Tropical Storm Ernesto sometime in the next ten days. Residents and visitors to the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate heavy rains and strong winds from 99L beginning to affect the islands as early as Friday night. The long-range fate of 99L is uncertain, but a trough of low pressure is expected to be present over the Eastern U.S. early next week, which would be capable of turning 99L more to the northwest.

Hot in the Central U.S.
The heat in America's heartland continued on Sunday, with Wichita, KS hitting 111°F, just 3° short of their all-time hottest temperature of 114° set on 8/12/1936. Other notable highs on Sunday:

111° Coffeyville, KS
111° Winfield, KS
110° Chanute, KS
110° Parsons, KS
109° Joplin, MO (all-time record is 115° on July 14, 1954)

The low temperature in Tulsa, Oklahoma this Monday morning dropped to only 88°F. This is the all-time warmest low temperature in the city since record keeping began in 1905. The previous record warmest minimum temperature was 87°F set on August 2, 2011 and July 16, 1980. The high in Tulsa Monday - Wednesday is expected to reach 110° - 111°, close to the city's all-time hottest temperature of 115° set on August 10, 1936.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Like this?



Or this?



Doesn't crash into Florida right?

That's the last thing I need on the 10th.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Imagine another Emily. This storm could end up just like it.

I'd rather take a well defined system, thanks. :P
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Nothing remarkable on the GFS so far:

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66 hours
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Imagine another Emily. This storm could end up just like it.
Two great minds think alike, I was just about to post that. And noticed how in the last run of the GFS it kills it before reaching Haiti and then redevelops it off the southeast coast of FL.
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Quoting Patrap:
O Lordy..

O Admin, most high, grant us a reprieve from idiocy this day.

Thanks be to Invest 99L.

"Ohmmm"





Amen and Amen
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Imagine another Emily. This storm could end up just like it.


I just thought of that as well and posted it..
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AL992012 - INVEST

Model Data

GFDL 10m Wind Speed & Sea Level Pressure

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even if it crosses over Hispanola, it still can regenerate..

Remember 2011 Emily that wouldnt die..
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Please we don't need a hurricane plowing into the S.E coast next week :(.

Like this?



Or this?

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Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If 99L moves westward into the Caribbean, it will be ripped apart by strong trade winds. If the system clips the Northeast Caribbean and passes north of the Caribbean Islands, we'll have a dramatically stronger storm. It's too early to speculate on whether this will be a USA threat or not...we've got to get development to occur first...but this storm reminds me a lot of Irene.

Imagine another Emily. This storm could end up just like it.
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Storm Relative 16km Geostationary Water Vapor Imagery

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AL992012 - INVEST

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

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54 hours
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The Weather Channel
about an hour ago

The National Weather Service is reviewing reports and images captured of a rare tornado that touched down on Colorado's Mount Evans over the weekend that could be the second highest ever in elevation on record in the United States. The tornado was reported Saturday afternoon just before 3 p.m. MDT, touching down at 11,900 feet on Mount Evans as strengthening thunderstorms moved over the area west of Denver, according to the NWS.

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Please we don't need a hurricane plowing into the S.E coast next week :(.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16745
WeatherNerdPR, stop lurking. I know you're out there!
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
This low track of 99L is very bad news for the US it can miss Hispanola. Shades of 2004 all over againg. SIGH!!


HAITI IS IN DANGER
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2153
Now......lets talk about 99L....
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Wow I haven't even had time to look at what is going on locally weather wise since I have been so caught up with what is going on in the tropics.

Looks like scattered showers and t-storms later today for the bay area as they are already forming out in the GOM. Some have already made it inland.


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This low track of 99L is very bad news for the US it can miss Hispanola. Shades of 2004 all over againg. SIGH!!

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
If 99L moves westward into the Caribbean, it will be ripped apart by strong trade winds. If the system clips the Northeast Caribbean and passes north of the Caribbean Islands, we'll have a dramatically stronger storm. It's too early to speculate on whether this will be a USA threat or not...we've got to get development to occur first...but this storm reminds me a lot of Irene.
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Quoting ncstorm:
oh gosh..he followed us to the new blog..

curse you wunderalertbot!!


How is he not banned? I didn't even post on here over the weekend because of the craziness this guy was causing.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You haven't been around long have you?

90% of the people on here come here to discuss things like 99L. We usually get 4,000+ comments a blog post because of it with systems like 99L.


OK, bro take it easy i just put a sarcastic comment. i know the good of the blog is interact , but i only put a comment saying about the good forecast of the Dr.master
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2153
36 hours
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Quoting ncstorm:
Interesting to note but the Nogaps looks like it may want to form something off the SE coast

Thats what I think! Nor Easter any one!!!
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Quoting ncstorm:
Interesting to note but the Nogaps looks like it may want to form something off the SE coast





Look whats in the caribbean.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16745
Thanks Dr. M. Hope someone will start monitoring the Blog a little closer and enforcing any bans on any folks not adhering to the rules or otherwise making inappropriate comments in the very near future. Going into the heart of hurricane season, when lots of folks tune in here for information and informed discussion, is not the place and time for some of the recent activity on the blog.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9024
Quoting RitaEvac:
The next 20 years will be unlike anything we've ever seen in the history of the world.

And those who aren't ready for what's coming will definitely look upon it as a catastrophe.

Nobody can talk, with absolute certainties, about what lies ahead in our path.

But we can definitely make some assumptions based on the evidence.

The exponential growth that has occurred with our energy, environmental, and economic systems has reached a point of no return.

It's not about running out of oil.

Or food and water.

It's about not being able to keep up with the demands of society.

And the dangerous economic constraints that will be put on our country and the world.

When these factors are combined with an American and global economy that's already on the verge of a meltdown, it's apparent that, while we may be able to delay the date this pyramid scheme crashes, the only unknowns at this point are when will that massive crash occur?

How severe will the outcome be?

And what is the best course of action for you to take in order to prepare and stay safe.

The first E – energy – is the piece of the pyramid scheme that has the most influence on the severity of the entire situation.

Because when we reach the point where oil can't fall below $150 a barrel...

Or $200 a barrel, say in 2013.

When we hit that mark, it's going to cause a ripple effect that weakens those other two Es tremendously.

Because the bedrock of our society is cheap and easy energy.

When that illusion gives way to the reality that there are no quick fixes, regardless of what politicians like to say...

The aftermath will go way beyond the $10-a-gallon gasoline we'll be paying in the near future.

And if we get caught in some period whether it's 10 years, or 20 years, or longer, where we are stuck between expensive oil and our transition to a mass integration of natural gas and other alternatives, it's going to stop the exponential growth patterns in the environment and economy right in their tracks.

When this pyramid comes crashing down, it will not be smooth.

We soon won't have the easy energy that would allow us to continue to cheaply extract necessary elements from our environment.

Our food and water is going to become infinitely more expensive in the years ahead.

It could get so bad that average folks may be spending 30% – even 40% – of their disposable income on it.

There will be areas of the world that experience increasing hostility around vital resources like water, farmland, and energy.

The fallout out from this will be truly frightening.

When this pyramid scheme goes, when that last card is placed on the top of this house of cards, we'll enter a time where the laws of money no longer apply to individuals.

Where bankruptcies and restructurings involve entire nation-states.

The world we live in right now has 10-20 times the amount of phony derivatives floating around than the entire size of our global GDP.

It's unsustainable and impossible to rectify.

Governments and central banks of the world have spent and borrowed us into oblivion by wasting our tax dollars, hard work, and loyal citizenship.

They've gambled our futures away.

I expect to see the collapse of sovereign debt occur sometime in the 20-teens.

Up to that point I expect to see absolute desperation on the part of the Federal Government, as they continue the aggressive money-printing to accommodate all of the debt we've already built up.

They will punitively tax those who've been responsible with their money.

I believe we could see America enter into a period of devastating inflation where the dollar becomes nearly worthless.



Some parts of the country are already starting to prepare for this.

Right now, there are no fewer than 11 places in the United States at least testing alternatives to the dollar in their local economy on a small scale.



nola has there own currency??
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O Lordy..

O Admin, most high, grant us a reprieve from idiocy this day.

Thanks be to Invest 99L.

"Ohmmm"


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12z gfs is running
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Watching Invest 99L for the threat of development - 7/30/12

Blog update!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The next 20 years will be unlike anything we've ever seen in the history of the world.

And those who aren't ready for what's coming will definitely look upon it as a catastrophe.

Nobody can talk, with absolute certainties, about what lies ahead in our path.

But we can definitely make some assumptions based on the evidence.

The exponential growth that has occurred with our energy, environmental, and economic systems has reached a point of no return.

It's not about running out of oil.

Or food and water.

It's about not being able to keep up with the demands of society.

And the dangerous economic constraints that will be put on our country and the world.

When these factors are combined with an American and global economy that's already on the verge of a meltdown, it's apparent that, while we may be able to delay the date this pyramid scheme crashes, the only unknowns at this point are when will that massive crash occur?

How severe will the outcome be?

And what is the best course of action for you to take in order to prepare and stay safe.

The first E – energy – is the piece of the pyramid scheme that has the most influence on the severity of the entire situation.

Because when we reach the point where oil can't fall below $150 a barrel...

Or $200 a barrel, say in 2013.

When we hit that mark, it's going to cause a ripple effect that weakens those other two Es tremendously.

Because the bedrock of our society is cheap and easy energy.

When that illusion gives way to the reality that there are no quick fixes, regardless of what politicians like to say...

The aftermath will go way beyond the $10-a-gallon gasoline we'll be paying in the near future.

And if we get caught in some period whether it's 10 years, or 20 years, or longer, where we are stuck between expensive oil and our transition to a mass integration of natural gas and other alternatives, it's going to stop the exponential growth patterns in the environment and economy right in their tracks.

When this pyramid comes crashing down, it will not be smooth.

We soon won't have the easy energy that would allow us to continue to cheaply extract necessary elements from our environment.

Our food and water is going to become infinitely more expensive in the years ahead.

It could get so bad that average folks may be spending 30% – even 40% – of their disposable income on it.

There will be areas of the world that experience increasing hostility around vital resources like water, farmland, and energy.

The fallout out from this will be truly frightening.

When this pyramid scheme goes, when that last card is placed on the top of this house of cards, we'll enter a time where the laws of money no longer apply to individuals.

Where bankruptcies and restructurings involve entire nation-states.

The world we live in right now has 10-20 times the amount of phony derivatives floating around than the entire size of our global GDP.

It's unsustainable and impossible to rectify.

Governments and central banks of the world have spent and borrowed us into oblivion by wasting our tax dollars, hard work, and loyal citizenship.

They've gambled our futures away.

I expect to see the collapse of sovereign debt occur sometime in the 20-teens.

Up to that point I expect to see absolute desperation on the part of the Federal Government, as they continue the aggressive money-printing to accommodate all of the debt we've already built up.

They will punitively tax those who've been responsible with their money.

I believe we could see America enter into a period of devastating inflation where the dollar becomes nearly worthless.



Some parts of the country are already starting to prepare for this.

Right now, there are no fewer than 11 places in the United States at least testing alternatives to the dollar in their local economy on a small scale.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The 12z GFS should be running soon.
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Interesting to note but the Nogaps looks like it may want to form something off the SE coast





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Thanks Dr. Masters.
Here in PR we are starting to feel the effects of a Tropical Wave that is over the Lesser Antilles.

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Quoting stormchaser19:
we don't need talk more about the 99l ,Dr. Jeff Masters said everything we needs to know


You haven't been around long have you?

90% of the people on here come here to discuss things like 99L. We usually get 4,000+ comments a blog post because of it with systems like 99L.
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Is that stormy weather off South Carolinia anything?
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oh gosh..he followed us to the new blog..

curse you wunderalertbot!!
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Thanks Jeff...
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Their are bloggers on here that live on the various land masses that could be affected no?.


I live in Dominican republic and if the low turns more west-norwest, maybe affect us here but i seeing in the point of view of forescast, hit the spot
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2153
Thanks Dr. Masters and good morning everyone.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.