African tropical wave 99L has potential to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:10 PM GMT on July 30, 2012

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The first African tropical wave of 2012 with a potential to develop is Invest 99L, located in the Eastern Atlantic near 9°N 36°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa. Visible satellite loops show a large area of the surrounding atmosphere has a pronounced counter-clockwise spin, though there is no surface circulation. The disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity is pretty sparse, but appears to be slowly increasing. Water vapor satellite loops show that 99L has a reasonably moist environment, and the latest Saharan air layer analysis shows that the dry air from the Sahara lies well to the north of 99L. WInd shear over the disturbance is a light 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is well above the 26.5°C (80°F) threshold typically needed to allow formation of a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Forecast for 99L
Wind shear is expected to remain light for the next five days, and ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. The disturbance is at 9°N, which is close enough to the Equator that the storm will have some difficultly getting spinning. Most of the models are showing some slow development of 99L, with the storm reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, August 3. NHC gave 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. I expect the storm will have trouble with dry air at times this week as it crosses the Atlantic, but I give 99L a 50% chance of eventually developing into Tropical Storm Ernesto sometime in the next ten days. Residents and visitors to the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate heavy rains and strong winds from 99L beginning to affect the islands as early as Friday night. The long-range fate of 99L is uncertain, but a trough of low pressure is expected to be present over the Eastern U.S. early next week, which would be capable of turning 99L more to the northwest.

Hot in the Central U.S.
The heat in America's heartland continued on Sunday, with Wichita, KS hitting 111°F, just 3° short of their all-time hottest temperature of 114° set on 8/12/1936. Other notable highs on Sunday:

111° Coffeyville, KS
111° Winfield, KS
110° Chanute, KS
110° Parsons, KS
109° Joplin, MO (all-time record is 115° on July 14, 1954)

The low temperature in Tulsa, Oklahoma this Monday morning dropped to only 88°F. This is the all-time warmest low temperature in the city since record keeping began in 1905. The previous record warmest minimum temperature was 87°F set on August 2, 2011 and July 16, 1980. The high in Tulsa Monday - Wednesday is expected to reach 110° - 111°, close to the city's all-time hottest temperature of 115° set on August 10, 1936.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS doesn't take the storm north of the islands...

All of the models that take 99L north of the islands show the storm intensifying. The GFS wind shear is probably off...but that's largely due to the fact that it also shows a completely different track.
I'm aware of this, but this loop shows the strong 200mb winds reaching far enough south to disrupt the circulation.

Link
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Quoting ncstorm:


Oh gosh..that made me laugh out loud!!
Yes! My sicko girl friend first pointed it out to me years ago. And we had a good laugh. Then recently I saw another one in front of the camera. I appreciate that these women have a career but I would think someone behind the camera would say something. Women get very sensitive to the shape our bodies are in, especially nearing the end. And really, that was all I could see. The "pointer" pointing to the weather map. They really just need a sitting down job by that stage.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


a majority of the GFS ensembles do not put it in the Caribbean though, don't be shocked if the 18Z GFS shifts northward


I will be looking for that.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Yes, once it does then it should develop but it is slowly organizing.


Yes, I agree with 30% at 8 PM.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14009
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
It does not move with the system... The 12Z GFS clearly shows possible Ernesto moving into this region of higher shear, and this is why the GFS weakens the cyclone....

The GFS doesn't take the storm north of the islands...

All of the models that take 99L north of the islands show the storm intensifying. The GFS wind shear is probably off...but that's largely due to the fact that it also shows a completely different track.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31456
Quoting Articuno:
Not all systems start completely "organized"



No but a focused LLC is usually what you look for prior to a TD. We still have an open belt of circulation on this low. That may change overnight, if it puts up some more convection.


As far as I can see right now only inhibitor is the circulation structure itself and the forward speed, convection wise that is.
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Why can't we discuss where the storm might be going..I just can't with some of you people...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
Quoting Hurricanes101:


also note that this area of strong shear moves with the system, so it likely means it is associated with it and will not hinder it
It does not move with the system... The 12Z GFS clearly shows possible Ernesto moving into this region of higher shear, and this is why the GFS weakens the cyclone....

Link
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Quoting DataNerd:



GFS 012 run is showing due west. HWREF is showing due west. Quite a few still taking it west.

NW component is not just contingent on the trough, its not expected to be strong enough to induce that on its own for a system so far south, we would need a moderate to deep cyclone as well, strong ts-cat1 hurricane to feel that influence and it would need to be at that strength around 85 hours. I don't see that happening because we don't have a td now.


a majority of the GFS ensembles do not put it in the Caribbean though, don't be shocked if the 18Z GFS shifts northward
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It has to detach from the ITCZ zone to have a better chance to develop.
Yes, once it does then it should develop but it is slowly organizing.
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Quoting RussianWinter:


Not to mention it is at least 10 days away from the USA.

Can you imagine the cone of error for 10 days?

It will literally be 1000 miles of coastline, all in the threat of a possible landing.



Its actually the entire Atlantic Basin ;)


But its the internet.
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659. yoboi
Quoting ncstorm:


I do believe they called it "THE STORM OF THE CENTURY"..okay..from Forbes days after Irene

Get Real: Hurricane Irene Should Be Renamed "Hurricane Hype"
23 comments, 0 called-out
+ Comment now
+ Comment now
1638

Now on to Hurricane Irene:

Up until now (Friday evening) Irene has been very similar to 1985 hurricane Gloria, though a bit weaker. But the level of hype—because of its projected path near all of the I-95 major cities—is similar to that of 26 years ago.

See the track here.

When Gloria proved less deadly than expected CBS’s Dan Rather—a serial hurricane hyper who made his career on 1961 Hurricane Carla—he yelled at poor Neil Frank on live TV.

What had happened is that the night before landfall, Gloria took a sudden 40-mile jog to the east. The cyclone slid harmlessly east of the big cities, showing her weaker western side instead of the destructive northeast corner.

Irene has put on a remarkably similar show. Within the limits of forecasting error, Irene’s projected path makes it was impossible to rule out a major disaster. But, as a dangerous Category 3 storm within two days of land, something similar to what happened to Gloria occurred. Instead of going slightly off course, the power of her winds dropped markedly, at least as measured by hurricane hunter aircraft. Because it is prudent to not respond to every little tropical cyclone twitch (such as Gloria’s jog or Thursday’s wind drop), the Thursday evening forecast was virtually unchanged, the Internet went thermonuclear, and the Weather Channel’s advertising rates skyrocketed. From that point on, it became all Irene, all the time. With this level of noise, the political process has to respond with full mobilization. Hype begets hype.

A day later, the smart money is still riding a very Gloria-like track, but with a cyclone that will be weaker than projected (and hopefully kill fewer than the eight people who died in Gloria) though power outages east of where the center makes landfall (probably on Long Island) may be extensive.

As I complete this, there’s another tropical depression out in the Atlantic, and a couple more on the way in the very near future. Suppose one of these takes a similar path, except that it improbably threads the needle of the Mid-Atlantic Bight and makes landfall immediately to the west of New York City as a Category 3 storm. How many people will the hyping of Irene have killed?

That’s how Hurricane Hype followed by Hurricane Insanity leads to hurricane death.

I see a solution, in all places, in Washington DC, where a group of crackerjack weather forecasters, led Jason Samenow, have set up the Capital Weather Gang (www.capitalweathergang.com). It’s become the go-to group for potentially severe winter storms here (including hurricanes), and, because they are serving a smaller community than, say, NHC, they aren’t under the massive scrutiny of a politicized media. Is it time for similar diversity to develop all over the high-stakes world of tropical cyclones?

Or would that be an abject disaster? Consider if there are five competing hurricane forecasters, four suggesting evacuation while the fifth says “stay put”, and the fifth one is wrong. Surely most people would choose to stay, with disastrous results. Given the nature of the Internet, such an experiment is sure to run in the near future.



relax take a very deep breathe
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Quoting Grothar:
What is not shown on here is that a strong trough is expected to be in place along the Eastern seaboard, (as I wrote in my blog Saturday morning). Regardless of the strength, it could be what some of the models are looking at. Yes, it currently is moving west, but ALL of the models are indicating a west to West Northwest movement even now.

True, models these far out are only being used to watch for trends. As some of you wrote, it depends on the strength of the system. But this is an important one to watch because it has a lot in its favor for development and will be close enough to many land areas to watch the models closely and watch as they change. Remember, the only thing written in stone is my birth certificate.


You mean this trough?



Too early to say anything with this system, but yes there is a trough over the East Coast 192 hours out.
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Not all systems start completely "organized"
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Ok first of all, what model are you basing this statement off of? Second of all I don't think it's smart to speculate on wind shear levels over 120 hours out. But since you are talking about it, here is the 180 hour 12Z GFS forecast, which shows a large area of very unfavorable conditions north of the Caribbean:



The 12Z GFS forecasts a TUTT to be over the Bahamas during this time, which will impose very strong wind shear over this region of the Atlantic.


correction, this is why the GFS and EURO weaken the system, but the models that take it north of the islands show more favorable shear
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Quoting wxchaser97:
It is only a 10% increase and there should be more organization in 2-3 hours.


We shall see. What sucks is losing the sunlight for RGB loop I love using that visible enhancement because on the floaters it gives you a really nice picture of the LLC systems. Has helped me alot in the past.
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Quoting LargoFl:
...................might be some damage and flooding out of these waves that keep coming in off the gulf,stay safe up there folks


The forecasts are a bit behind the 8 ball as a much wetter pattern is quickly returning this week, you can throw away the 20 to 30 garbage for a while, lol.

The trough of low pressure is kicking the large and dusty upper ridging that has put a "lid" on our atmosphere out of here pretty quickly, quicker than expected. We should have a nice week of increasing coverage. Bay News 9 so far are the only guys to catch notice the quick arrival of wetter weather. I expect much of August to be like June and July, maybe not necessarily the same pattern but we should see another wet month. We almost needed this dry spell as flooding was getting ridiculous my work place had serious flooding damage that kept coming back for a couple weeks. The water has finally receded there from this drier weather we've had.

I'll welcome the return of the rain though, that's for sure!
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I see more of an Earl situation than an Irene situation, honestly.
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Quoting scott39:
To predict landfalls of 99L based off of Computer models..... or just pulling it out of a hat is ludicrus. It is still an invest!


Not to mention it is at least 10 days away from the USA.

Can you imagine the cone of error for 10 days?

It will literally be 1000 miles of coastline, all in the threat of a possible landing.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Yes it is, should see its chances increase to 30% at 8pm imo.


It has to detach from the ITCZ zone to have a better chance to develop. Agree with 30% at 8 PM.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14009
Quoting Grothar:
What is not shown on here is that a strong trough is expected to be in place along the Eastern seaboard, (as I wrote in my blog Saturday morning). Regardless of the strength, it could be what some of the models are looking at. Yes, it currently is moving west, but ALL of the models are indicating a west to West Northwest movement even now.

True, models these far out are only being used to watch for trends. As some of you wrote, it depends on the strength of the system. But this is an important one to watch because it has a lot in its favor for development and will be close enough to many land areas to watch the models closely and watch as they change. Remember, the only thing written in stone is my birth certificate.



GFS 012 run is showing due west. HWREF is showing due west. Quite a few still taking it west.

NW component is not just contingent on the trough, its not expected to be strong enough to induce that on its own for a system so far south, we would need a moderate to deep cyclone as well, strong ts-cat1 hurricane to feel that influence and it would need to be at that strength around 85 hours. I don't see that happening because we don't have a td now.
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Quoting DataNerd:



Still not convinced. Convection is improving but the circulation is still not well organized.
It is only a 10% increase and there should be more organization in 2-3 hours.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

As ba as Irene was, had it finished its EWRC and maintained strength/intensified slightly on the way to NC...the storm would have been much worse.
But thankfully it wasn't.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
Quoting 954FtLCane:


shhhhh....be quite. be vawy vawy quite. we're hunting for wabbits! (don't mention agw)



the blog is hilarious today!!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14450
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
644. yoboi
Quoting ncstorm:


I do believe they called it "THE STORM OF THE CENTURY"..okay..from Forbes days after Irene

Get Real: Hurricane Irene Should Be Renamed "Hurricane Hype"
23 comments, 0 called-out
+ Comment now
+ Comment now
1638

Now on to Hurricane Irene:

Up until now (Friday evening) Irene has been very similar to 1985 hurricane Gloria, though a bit weaker. But the level of hype—because of its projected path near all of the I-95 major cities—is similar to that of 26 years ago.

See the track here.

When Gloria proved less deadly than expected CBS’s Dan Rather—a serial hurricane hyper who made his career on 1961 Hurricane Carla—he yelled at poor Neil Frank on live TV.

What had happened is that the night before landfall, Gloria took a sudden 40-mile jog to the east. The cyclone slid harmlessly east of the big cities, showing her weaker western side instead of the destructive northeast corner.

Irene has put on a remarkably similar show. Within the limits of forecasting error, Irene’s projected path makes it was impossible to rule out a major disaster. But, as a dangerous Category 3 storm within two days of land, something similar to what happened to Gloria occurred. Instead of going slightly off course, the power of her winds dropped markedly, at least as measured by hurricane hunter aircraft. Because it is prudent to not respond to every little tropical cyclone twitch (such as Gloria’s jog or Thursday’s wind drop), the Thursday evening forecast was virtually unchanged, the Internet went thermonuclear, and the Weather Channel’s advertising rates skyrocketed. From that point on, it became all Irene, all the time. With this level of noise, the political process has to respond with full mobilization. Hype begets hype.

A day later, the smart money is still riding a very Gloria-like track, but with a cyclone that will be weaker than projected (and hopefully kill fewer than the eight people who died in Gloria) though power outages east of where the center makes landfall (probably on Long Island) may be extensive.

As I complete this, there’s another tropical depression out in the Atlantic, and a couple more on the way in the very near future. Suppose one of these takes a similar path, except that it improbably threads the needle of the Mid-Atlantic Bight and makes landfall immediately to the west of New York City as a Category 3 storm. How many people will the hyping of Irene have killed?

That’s how Hurricane Hype followed by Hurricane Insanity leads to hurricane death.

I see a solution, in all places, in Washington DC, where a group of crackerjack weather forecasters, led Jason Samenow, have set up the Capital Weather Gang (www.capitalweathergang.com). It’s become the go-to group for potentially severe winter storms here (including hurricanes), and, because they are serving a smaller community than, say, NHC, they aren’t under the massive scrutiny of a politicized media. Is it time for similar diversity to develop all over the high-stakes world of tropical cyclones?

Or would that be an abject disaster? Consider if there are five competing hurricane forecasters, four suggesting evacuation while the fifth says “stay put”, and the fifth one is wrong. Surely most people would choose to stay, with disastrous results. Given the nature of the Internet, such an experiment is sure to run in the near future.



huh????
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Quoting muddertracker:


If that plays out...NO one will evacuate this time (if they even did for Irene)...that's what happens when things get *overhyped*

Remember Cantore standing on the Staton Island peer saying ..."in just a few hours..this all could be underwater..." lol!


better safe than sorry
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I mean we were supposed to have Category 3 winds in Raleigh, but we end up having winds of a TROPICAL DEPRESSION at 35 mph.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Shear is forecasted to be better north of the caribbean, than it is IN the caribbean... Not sure what if youre talking about currently or not.
Ok first of all, what model are you basing this statement off of? Second of all I don't think it's smart to speculate on wind shear levels over 120 hours out. But since you are talking about it, here is the 180 hour 12Z GFS forecast, which shows a large area of very unfavorable conditions north of the Caribbean:



The 12Z GFS forecasts a TUTT to be over the Bahamas during this time, which will impose very strong wind shear over this region of the Atlantic.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Yes it is, should see its chances increase to 30% at 8pm imo.



Still not convinced. Convection is improving but the circulation is still not well organized.
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What is not shown on here is that a strong trough is expected to be in place along the Eastern seaboard, (as I wrote in my blog Saturday morning). Regardless of the strength, it could be what some of the models are looking at. Yes, it currently is moving west, but ALL of the models are indicating a west to West Northwest movement even now.

True, models these far out are only being used to watch for trends. As some of you wrote, it depends on the strength of the system. But this is an important one to watch because it has a lot in its favor for development and will be close enough to many land areas to watch the models closely and watch as they change. Remember, the only thing written in stone is my birth certificate.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25365
Quoting ncstorm:


Wash..they played doom music and didnt even focus on NC..they were already predicting chaos in NY before it left the bahamas..TWC was flavor flav..a hype man for Irene..
Yeah I know.Before Irene made landfall in N.C they were all ready talking about the places up in New England except for focusing on the area that was going to be impacted first.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
Quoting washingtonian115:
Meanwhile 99L is slowly organizing...

Yes it is, should see its chances increase to 30% at 8pm imo.
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Hurricane Irene was HYPED yes, but it still did damaged Eastern North Carolina pretty badly. However, Irene was expected to be like "Hazel" or "East Coast Katrina" or "Storm of the Century" when it end up being a Category 3 for NC (which is not even close to the worst storm ever for NC) and Tropical Storm for NYC (when it was forecasted to be Category 3). It was HYPED, but it still did DAMAGE.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
We hope that there is no doom and gloom solution that plays out.




I wouldn't evacuate unless I was dealing with strong side cat 3 or higher. And I would have to be confident that it was going to come in with that strength not drop off significantly just prior to landfall.


That of course would be if I lived well inland, if I was on the coast I would simply be thinking about storm surge.

My 2 cents on the whole "hype" thing.
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Quoting kwgirl:
You are correct TA. They have had quite a few good calls. But I think the way you defend them, you probably work for them. If you do, would you mind asking them to stop putting the very pregnant women on as "weather" girls. When they get that large, the navel protrudes and it starts to look like a pointer. If the women realized what they looked like, I bet they wouldn't do it.


Oh gosh..that made me laugh out loud!!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14450
Quoting washingtonian115:
Meanwhile 99L is slowly organizing...


Until it's organized, it remains an unorganized mess...
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To predict landfalls of 99L based off of Computer models..... or just pulling it out of a hat is ludicrus. It is still an invest!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I do think hurricane Irene was hyped a little.I mean c'mon "The east coast Katrina" is what some people called it.Let alone saying it would plow into NYC as a strong cat 2 to minimal cat 3.And plenty examples.

Glad she didn't turn out the way she was hyped on T.V our economy would be more in trouble than it is now.

As ba as Irene was, had it finished its EWRC and maintained strength/intensified slightly on the way to NC...the storm would have been much worse.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31456
Link


CMC at 126 hours shows nice pocket of calm central carib but more shear on the northern path. That is almost entirely due to outflow however.
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Meanwhile 99L is slowly organizing...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting washingtonian115:
I do think hurricane Irene was hyped a little.I mean c'mon "The east coast Katrina" is what some people called it.Let alone saying it would plow into NYC as a strong cat 2 to minimal cat 3.And plenty examples.

Glad she didn't turn out the way she was hyped on T.V our economy would be more in trouble than it is now.


Wash..they played doom music and didnt even focus on NC..they were already predicting chaos in NY before it left the bahamas..TWC was flavor flav..a hype man for Irene..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14450
Quoting muddertracker:


If that plays out...NO one will evacuate this time (if they even did for Irene)...that's what happens when things get *overhyped*

Remember Cantore standing on the Staton Island peer saying ..."in just a few hours..this all could be underwater..." lol!
We hope that there is no doom and gloom solution that plays out.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

If the storm took the northerly route, it would have an anticyclone to protect it, unlike in the Caribbean, where an anticyclone doesn't shield storms from strong trade winds.



That would have to be further north than what I am referring to I see that feature at 150 hrs south of the bahamas.


But what I am referring to is just north of the Antilles, from about 56-114 hrs that whole area is in higher shear then if you were moving due west.


Over all a low shear scenerio for both routes but I see more north then south. And it would have to be even further north still, IMO, to interact with that anticyclone.
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Quoting kwgirl:
You are correct TA. They have had quite a few good calls. But I think the way you defend them, you probably work for them. If you do, would you mind asking them to stop putting the very pregnant women on as "weather" girls. When they get that large, the navel protrudes and it starts to look like a pointer. If the women realized what they looked like, I bet they wouldn't do it.
like.it.shows.they.care.about.her..only.natural
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99L:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Every bit of so called "hype" The Weather Channel produced during Irene was warranted. The storm caused nearly 20 billion dollars in damage.


I do believe they called it "THE STORM OF THE CENTURY"..okay..from Forbes days after Irene

Get Real: Hurricane Irene Should Be Renamed "Hurricane Hype"
23 comments, 0 called-out
+ Comment now
+ Comment now
1638

Now on to Hurricane Irene:

Up until now (Friday evening) Irene has been very similar to 1985 hurricane Gloria, though a bit weaker. But the level of hype—because of its projected path near all of the I-95 major cities—is similar to that of 26 years ago.

See the track here.

When Gloria proved less deadly than expected CBS’s Dan Rather—a serial hurricane hyper who made his career on 1961 Hurricane Carla—he yelled at poor Neil Frank on live TV.

What had happened is that the night before landfall, Gloria took a sudden 40-mile jog to the east. The cyclone slid harmlessly east of the big cities, showing her weaker western side instead of the destructive northeast corner.

Irene has put on a remarkably similar show. Within the limits of forecasting error, Irene’s projected path makes it was impossible to rule out a major disaster. But, as a dangerous Category 3 storm within two days of land, something similar to what happened to Gloria occurred. Instead of going slightly off course, the power of her winds dropped markedly, at least as measured by hurricane hunter aircraft. Because it is prudent to not respond to every little tropical cyclone twitch (such as Gloria’s jog or Thursday’s wind drop), the Thursday evening forecast was virtually unchanged, the Internet went thermonuclear, and the Weather Channel’s advertising rates skyrocketed. From that point on, it became all Irene, all the time. With this level of noise, the political process has to respond with full mobilization. Hype begets hype.

A day later, the smart money is still riding a very Gloria-like track, but with a cyclone that will be weaker than projected (and hopefully kill fewer than the eight people who died in Gloria) though power outages east of where the center makes landfall (probably on Long Island) may be extensive.

As I complete this, there’s another tropical depression out in the Atlantic, and a couple more on the way in the very near future. Suppose one of these takes a similar path, except that it improbably threads the needle of the Mid-Atlantic Bight and makes landfall immediately to the west of New York City as a Category 3 storm. How many people will the hyping of Irene have killed?

That’s how Hurricane Hype followed by Hurricane Insanity leads to hurricane death.

I see a solution, in all places, in Washington DC, where a group of crackerjack weather forecasters, led Jason Samenow, have set up the Capital Weather Gang (www.capitalweathergang.com). It’s become the go-to group for potentially severe winter storms here (including hurricanes), and, because they are serving a smaller community than, say, NHC, they aren’t under the massive scrutiny of a politicized media. Is it time for similar diversity to develop all over the high-stakes world of tropical cyclones?

Or would that be an abject disaster? Consider if there are five competing hurricane forecasters, four suggesting evacuation while the fifth says “stay put”, and the fifth one is wrong. Surely most people would choose to stay, with disastrous results. Given the nature of the Internet, such an experiment is sure to run in the near future.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14450
Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol.I don't wanna get banned before the action heats up.Really keeping my eye on this one.Seems like another hard forecast track again.Lol.


Not for me.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25365
I do think hurricane Irene was hyped a little.I mean c'mon "The east coast Katrina" is what some people called it.Let alone saying it would plow into NYC as a strong cat 2 to minimal cat 3.And plenty examples.

Glad she didn't turn out the way she was hyped on T.V our economy would be more in trouble than it is now.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.