African tropical wave 99L has potential to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:10 PM GMT on July 30, 2012

The first African tropical wave of 2012 with a potential to develop is Invest 99L, located in the Eastern Atlantic near 9°N 36°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa. Visible satellite loops show a large area of the surrounding atmosphere has a pronounced counter-clockwise spin, though there is no surface circulation. The disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity is pretty sparse, but appears to be slowly increasing. Water vapor satellite loops show that 99L has a reasonably moist environment, and the latest Saharan air layer analysis shows that the dry air from the Sahara lies well to the north of 99L. WInd shear over the disturbance is a light 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is well above the 26.5°C (80°F) threshold typically needed to allow formation of a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Forecast for 99L
Wind shear is expected to remain light for the next five days, and ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. The disturbance is at 9°N, which is close enough to the Equator that the storm will have some difficultly getting spinning. Most of the models are showing some slow development of 99L, with the storm reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, August 3. NHC gave 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. I expect the storm will have trouble with dry air at times this week as it crosses the Atlantic, but I give 99L a 50% chance of eventually developing into Tropical Storm Ernesto sometime in the next ten days. Residents and visitors to the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate heavy rains and strong winds from 99L beginning to affect the islands as early as Friday night. The long-range fate of 99L is uncertain, but a trough of low pressure is expected to be present over the Eastern U.S. early next week, which would be capable of turning 99L more to the northwest.

Hot in the Central U.S.
The heat in America's heartland continued on Sunday, with Wichita, KS hitting 111°F, just 3° short of their all-time hottest temperature of 114° set on 8/12/1936. Other notable highs on Sunday:

111° Coffeyville, KS
111° Winfield, KS
110° Chanute, KS
110° Parsons, KS
109° Joplin, MO (all-time record is 115° on July 14, 1954)

The low temperature in Tulsa, Oklahoma this Monday morning dropped to only 88°F. This is the all-time warmest low temperature in the city since record keeping began in 1905. The previous record warmest minimum temperature was 87°F set on August 2, 2011 and July 16, 1980. The high in Tulsa Monday - Wednesday is expected to reach 110° - 111°, close to the city's all-time hottest temperature of 115° set on August 10, 1936.

Jeff Masters

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1020. spathy
Quoting Grothar:


Very few of my friends know I track the weather. The few who do, tease the heck out of me. If a storm is threatening, they call here and ask for Weather Central. Or if some are planning and outing, they say, "We better check with .... (real name deleted) first".


You got it.
Thats exactly what I am talking about.
Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10663
Quoting MississippiWx:
I mentioned this earlier, but you're not going to see the NHC jump on 99L's bandwagon too much until it departs from the ITCZ. It's still very far to the south and very much embedded within the convergence zone.


Still, I would have went up to 30%.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34842
Quoting MississippiWx:
I mentioned this earlier, but you're not going to see the NHC jump on 99L's bandwagon too much until it departs from the ITCZ. It's still very far to the south and very much embedded within the convergence zone.



looks pretty well organized to me, I would have gone with 30% considering many of the models develop it within the next 36-72 hours
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 9011
1017. LargoFl
Quoting Civicane49:
..still does not look like its coming together, maybe thats why they kept it at 20%
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 56921
1016. spathy
Quoting Patrap:
"It's remarkable, but it's completely normal," said Jim Pogue, spokesman for the Army Corps of Engineers in Memphis. "You get a low river, you get a high river, but it's completely normal."

There isn't much man can do to deal with the exceptionally low river, which at Memphis, is just about 6 feet above the record low.

"Pray for rain," said Tommy Hart, director of the port in Greenville, Miss. "I'm not a big fan of rain, but this time I am."


I got that Pat.

But wouldnt my idea help both problems.

Or am I speaking in tunnels?
Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10663
1015. Grothar
Quoting Civicane49:
99L:



Looks like its coming together pretty good.
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1014. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
637 PM CDT MON JUL 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN DALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
EASTERN GENEVA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
WESTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 633 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
OZARK...OR NEAR HOOPER STAGE FIELD...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FORT
RUCKER...LEVEL PLAINS...DALEVILLE...NEWTON...PINCKARD...HARTFORD. ..
SLOCOMB AND TAYLOR

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 56921
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Quoting MississippiWx:
I mentioned this earlier, but you're not going to see the NHC jump on 99L's bandwagon too much until it departs from the ITCZ. It's still very far to the south and very much embedded within the convergence zone.



Agreed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1011. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
634 PM CDT MON JUL 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 627 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH WAS LOCATED 4 MILES
SOUTH OF ANDALUSIA...OR NEAR LIBERTYVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 25
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SANFORD... LIBERTYVILLE... CAROLINA...
ANDALUSIA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HAIL UP TO NEAR ONE INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED JUST SOUTH OF
ANDALUSIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STORM...AND RADAR INDICATES THAT
EVEN LARGER HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 56921
I mentioned this earlier, but you're not going to see the NHC jump on 99L's bandwagon too much until it departs from the ITCZ. It's still very far to the south and very much embedded within the convergence zone.

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1009. Grothar
Quoting spathy:


To further understand I am sure most that frequent Wu have friends and coworkers that tease them by asking so what swirl are you watching now,or when is it doom? Type of banter.

Or its just me LOL :O)


Very few of my friends know I track the weather. The few who do, tease the heck out of me. If a storm is threatening, they call here and ask for Weather Central. Or if some are planning and outing, they say, "We better check with .... (real name deleted) first".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1008. etxwx

Rainstorms sweep parts of China
07-30-2012 13:40 BJT
Heavy rainfall has battered large parts of China since the weekend, from Heilongjiang in the northeast to Fujian in the southeast. The downpours have triggered floods and landslides, blocking traffic and leaving large areas inundated.
The city’s biggest rainfall this year came on Saturday.
Located in northeast China, Suihua has seen almost 140 millimetres of rain since the weekend.
After the storm came flooding... paralysing traffic.
On the same day, heavy downpours were seen in Xilinhot City in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, which saw 80 millimetres of rain.
Days of rainfall flooded bungalows, damaging countless homes.
No casualties were reported due to timely evacuations.
Yao Fu, Local Resident, said, "We left with nothing. It’s impossible for us to take away our belongings. People were transferred by tractors. Or else, they would not leave their houses. My house has become dangerous now, no one dares to enter."
In Linxian County in North China’s Shanxi province, six people were killed and four are still missing.
In just 3 hours, the precipitation rose to nearly 200 millimetres, affecting more than 50 thousand people.
Work teams have been sent by the provincial government to cities along the Yellow River, to prepare for potential floods.
In northwest China’s Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, heavy downpours began on Sunday with its central and northern areas experiencing strengthened downpours.
In the regional capital Yinchuan, torrential rains triggered landslides and floods.
In some parts, water accumulated as high as 300 millimetres, blocking transport arteries.
Over in the southeast, the approach of tropical storms Saola and Damrey has put authorities on high alert.Saola was packing winds up to 90 km per hour at its center on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Damrey is expected to move northwest at a speed of 10 to 15 km per hour.
Liu Ming, Chief Forecaster of Fujian Meteorological Bureau, said, "Damrey is currently moving in a northwest ward direction, it will take a long time to arrive on the mainland. However, it’s still hard to tell which regions will be affected."
China’s flood control authorities on Sunday called for intensified efforts on disaster prevention.
It urged weather authorities to enhance monitoring and to make sure major facilities in cities can resist strong winds and possible flooding as tropical storms were strengthening as they headed toward the country.
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1007. ala2010
Quoting wxchaser97:
I edited the post and now you can click to enlarge.


Thanks. Great graphic!
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oh well
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5100 Comments: 117347
1005. Patrap
"It's remarkable, but it's completely normal," said Jim Pogue, spokesman for the Army Corps of Engineers in Memphis. "You get a low river, you get a high river, but it's completely normal."

There isn't much man can do to deal with the exceptionally low river, which at Memphis, is just about 6 feet above the record low.

"Pray for rain," said Tommy Hart, director of the port in Greenville, Miss. "I'm not a big fan of rain, but this time I am."
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137203
12z 8-10 Day 500mb mean comparison of the Euro (left) and GFS (right):



The European shows basically zonal flow across the Northern US and the GFS shows subtle troughing over the Eastern Seaboard. The 588DM line extends well into the tropics as well (not favorable for development). I really don't see this getting north of the Caribbean until at least Haiti, if not later. A weaker system is going to stay south, and 99L is already very far to the south. If it isn't a TC by the time it reaches the Caribbean, it's going to have a very difficult time reaching TC status until it either reaches the W Caribbean or penetrates into the SW Atlantic.
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1002. spathy
Quoting Patrap:
A year after floods, shippers face low Miss. River

Updated: Jul 30, 2012 9:26 AM CDT



MEMPHIS, Tenn. (AP) - A year after the Mississippi River swelled to near-historic proportions and flooded farms and homes from Illinois to Louisiana, the level along the waterway's southern half is so low that cargo barges have run aground and their operators have been forced to lighten their loads.

Wide, sandy strips of shoreline usually invisible even in the low season are now exposed, shrinking the river's width and affecting the way tow captains navigate.

Such is life along the nation's main inland waterway, where millions of tons of goods are shipped every year, some of which end up as exports departing from south Louisiana ports. Those who make their living along the Mississippi learn to adapt to the river's fickle nature.

"It's remarkable, but it's completely normal," said Jim Pogue, spokesman for the Army Corps of Engineers in Memphis. "You get a low river, you get a high river, but it's completely normal."

There isn't much man can do to deal with the exceptionally low river, which at Memphis, is just about 6 feet above the record low.

"Pray for rain," said Tommy Hart, director of the port in Greenville, Miss. "I'm not a big fan of rain, but this time I am."

Aside from that, the best coping mechanism is careful navigation. With the river this low, the channels are shallower and narrower, presenting problems for barges loaded with coal, grain, iron, steel, sand, gravel and more. They must reduce their loads to avoid bottoming out and take extra care not to collide when passing another string of barges in the thinner channel.

Also, low water at docks and terminals makes it more difficult to load or unload material, as ships have trouble getting close enough to docks. Companies must get permits from the Army Corps to dredge near their docks to find deeper places to load and unload.

The National Weather Service said the Mississippi River gauge in Memphis was at minus-4.8 feet on Friday, but there's no need to panic. The "minus" reading does not mean the river is dried up - it's just a measurement based on how the river gauge is designed. Essentially, the reading means the river level is far below normal.

That low level stands in contrast to the flood of 2011, which saw the Mississippi fall about a foot short of the record crest of 48.7 feet set in 1937. The National Weather Service has set the official crest of last year's flood at 48.03 feet on the Memphis gauge.

"It's basically just the opposite of last year," Pogue said.

One reason for the difference is a lack of rainfall in the Ohio River valley and the north Mississippi River basin, said Ryan Husted, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Memphis. Sections of Tennessee and regions to the north are experiencing drought conditions. Most areas in the Mid-South are 10 inches or more below normal for rainfall for the year, the weather service said.

Lower-than-normal snowfall levels over the northern plains this winter are also an issue, Husted said. Less snow means less water from melted snow making its way into the Mississippi and the rivers that feed it.

The record low on the Memphis gauge is minus-10.7, set during a severe drought in 1988. That year, a stretch of river about 100 miles south of Memphis was temporarily closed, Pogue said.

Near Greenville, Miss., more than 700 barges were backed up on the river. Crews dredged day and night to make the river deep enough for traffic to resume.

A paper published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society in September 1989 estimated that the drought caused the U.S. barge industry to suffer a 20 percent income loss, with total losses at about $1 billion that year.

The Army Corps predicts that the river will drop to within about 2 feet of the record, but it is not expected to reach it, Pogue said. So far, no stretch of the river has been closed, but at least one harbor, in Hickman, Ky., has been shut down.

Since 1988, the Corps has worked to improve the navigation system in the river, making sure channels are sufficiently deep. That means the river wouldn't necessarily close, even if the record low is reached this year, Pogue said.

Although Coast Guard officials say closings are not imminent, there have been problems. Towed barge groundings are up compared with years when the river's water level was normal, said agency spokesman Ryan Gomez said.

Meanwhile, barge operators have to carry less cargo to avoid running aground, which means they make less money each trip.

Nashville-based Ingram Barge Company, which operates on the Mississippi and other rivers, has seen business suffer, said Ingram spokesman Keel Hunt.

"Captains and crews know how to navigate through waters high or low," Hunt said. "In a time like this, however, it's a particular challenge because in some cases it's just very difficult to move a barge full of products."

In Arkansas, the water is so low where the White River meets the Mississippi that barges must pass through a series of river locks. And in New Orleans, the Mississippi is so low that the wooden pilings of the wharfs near the French Quarter have been exposed.

But shippers and river pilots reported no navigation problems. Michael Lorino, the head of a pilots group that takes ships across the pass at the mouth of the Mississippi, said recent dredging by the Army Corps had made it a smooth ride for ocean-going vessels.

Anthony Hauer, director of the port at Natchez, Miss., said his port has a deep water channel, and it's not likely barges would have to lighten their loads there.

At Greenville, port director Hart checks the river's level every day. This is harvest season, a busy time for a port that ships goods from the heart of Mississippi's farmlands. According to the Mississippi Department of Intermodal Planning website, the port at Greenville ships potash, rice, corn, wheat, grain feed ingredients, fertilizer and scrap.

A major concern at Greenville and other ports is that the entrance to the river could get too shallow. If that happens, barges could be forced to carry lighter loads to make it to the channel, and the port is hoping to dredge its opening to the river to keep traffic flowing.

"We seem to be living in a day and age of extremes. We had the flood last year and now we have low water," Hart said.



Mohr reported from Jackson, Miss. Associated Press writer Cain Burdeau contributed to this report from New Orleans.

(Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.)


Just a question.

Isnt flood control part of the reason for lack of sediment flushing?

And lack of sediment deposits in the Louisiana Delta?

Thus killing off the grass that traps the sediment leading to further seawater intrusion that kills more grass?

How do we balance flood control further up the Mississippi and not cause marsh destruction further down river.

I post that as a hypothetical yet Would love ideas.

I often thought that river bottom bubblers (sediment stirrers) could solve some of the problems.

Any thoughts?

Email me!
Its not weather topic related most likely.
Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10663
1001. Grothar
Quoting spathy:


They must have been on their own boat while there,or were the evacuation mandates less strict back then?
We were camping on Ft Jefferson when "Dolly?" was threatening,they assured us they would have us out in plenty of time.
Turns out no need for alarm then.
But I was watching and concerned as usual.


Are you talking about Dolly Madison? She was OK.
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1000. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's going to hit Puerto Rico and then move north of the other islands.


Hey come on! XD

Too early in the year, I don't want a storm yet, I'm not prepared mentally to deal with that.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8963
.
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Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
new update at 8pm on invest 99L WILL IT GO UP TO 30%


I don't foresee any change.
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Quoting ala2010:


Hi WxC97, terrific graphic, but would be a whole let better if I could read it. I could read the valid date better than the relevant tropical information. Not trying to pick, just thought it might help. Have a great evening! Back to lurking..
I edited the post and now you can click to enlarge.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
Still 20%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 302330
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
000
ABNT20 KNHC 302330
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Quoting Gearsts:
Almost no rain for PR so far.


The PR split as TV met Susan says.
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99L:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Remains at 20%.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34842
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


it cant go north of puerto rico and hit puerto rico so which is it.

It's going to hit Puerto Rico and then move north of the other islands.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34842
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
POLL TIME!!!!:

Will Invest 99L track:

A) North of the Greater Antilles
B) South of the Greater Antilles
C) Over the Greater Antilles

C/A area, brush PR and then move NW.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
Quoting spathy:


They must have been on their own boat while there,or were the evacuation mandates less strict back then?
We were camping on Ft Jefferson when "Dolly?" was threatening,they assured us they would have us out in plenty of time.
Turns out no need for alarm then.
But I was watching and concerned as usual.
They had a 50 ft Gulf-star sailboat. The anchorage area offers little protection from storms. A gust of 90 kts was measured there during Allen,s passage through the Yucatan Channel. My friends father broke both is arms while trying to adjust the the anchor line during the storm.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A and C since Puerto Rico is considered part of the Greater Antilles.


it cant go north of puerto rico and hit puerto rico so which is it.
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Strong Thunderstorms in the Southern California desert and mountains.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 6866
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
Almost no rain for PR so far.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
This sums things up


Hi WxC97, terrific graphic, but would be a whole let better if I could read it. I could read the valid date better than the relevant tropical information. Not trying to pick, just thought it might help. Have a great evening! Back to lurking..
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
POLL TIME!!!!:

Will Invest 99L track:

A) North of the Greater Antilles
B) South of the Greater Antilles
C) Over the Greater Antilles

A and C since Puerto Rico is considered part of the Greater Antilles.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34842
Quoting spathy:
Thanks Groth for 941. Grothar 10:52 PM GMT on July 30, 2012

I hope you do know my paranoia is under control at most times. Its an private humor thing that most around me get.

But your Vort Sig Post did help calm the beast!


To further understand I am sure most that frequent Wu have friends and coworkers that tease them by asking so what swirl are you watching now,or when is it doom? Type of banter.

Or its just me LOL :O)
Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10663
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
POLL TIME!!!!:

Will Invest 99L track:

A) North of the Greater Antilles
B) South of the Greater Antilles
C) Over the Greater Antilles
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Groth for 941. Grothar 10:52 PM GMT on July 30, 2012

I hope you do know my paranoia is under control at most times. Its an private humor thing that most around me get.

But your Vort Sig Post did help calm the beast!
Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10663
This sums things up

Click to enlarge
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
Quoting Patrap:
Eastern Atlantic
Precipitable Water

Great graphics!!!!,thank you for putting all this unusual graphics on this site.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
604 PM CDT MON JUL 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COFFEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
WESTERN DALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 601 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES NORTH OF ELBA...OR NEAR
WILKINSTOWN...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH. PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE
HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NEW
BROCKTON...LEVEL PLAINS...FORT RUCKER...ENTERPRISE AND DALEVILLE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.



LAT...LON 3152 8620 3153 8620 3154 8615 3161 8615
3162 8614 3162 8573 3121 8569 3120 8571
3119 8612 3118 8612 3119 8613 3119 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 349DEG 11KT 3160 8599



42-DVD
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 56921
Quoting LargoFl:

..in the bottom right hand part of the match,you can see just the beginning of the wave coming into view..
Hello,thank you for putting great graphics!!.Do you think this wave east of Puerto Rico will develop into something tropical,it has been growing in size since yesterday,no spin but it might change once it move North of the island (IMO).
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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
359 PM PDT MON JUL 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN DIEGO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA...

* UNTIL 600 PM PDT

* AT 354 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOODING FROM A STORM OVER THE WARNED AREA. RADAR RAINFALL
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES IN THE LAST HOUR.
HOWEVER...SIMILAR STORMS NEARBY HAVE PRODUCED UP TO 2 INCHES IN
THE LAST HOUR...AND HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD BE OCCURRING.

* THE STORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 56921
Saltwater wedge moving up the Mississippi River

Low water in the Mississippi River has allowed a “wedge” of saltwater from the Gulf of Mexico to work its way up to mile marker 43, just above the Plaquemines Parish community of Jesuit Bend, but is not yet considered a threat to New Orleans, St. Bernard or Jefferson water supplies, officials with the Army Corps of Engineers said Thursday. Plaquemines Parish officials have measured elevated salinity levels at water intakes in Boothville and Venice, but the lower end of the parish has access to freshwater from a pipeline from Belle Chasse, said Will Veatch, a corps hydrologist. The pipeline was installed after low river events in 1988 and 1999.

Denser, heavier saltwater flows upriver beneath fresh water flowing downstream when the river’s flow drops below normal. The federal drinking water standard for salt is 250 parts per million, which could be violated if the wedge’s upper level reaches the water intakes.
If officials believe the wedge is four weeks away from fouling the upriver freshwater intakes, the corps will block the saltwater from moving upstream by building an underwater sill of dredged sediment at mile marker 63.7, 31 miles below the Canal Street ferry.

But that’s not a threat until the leading edge of the wedge has moved 15 to 25 miles upstream of the intakes, Veatch said, and he said corps officials still don’t believe that will happen this summer.
The surface of the river was at only 2.5 feet above sea level at the Carrollton Gage in New Orleans on Friday, which was slightly higher than a reading of 2.1 feet over last weekend.

But hydrologists with the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center, based in the Slidell office of the National Weather Service, predict the water level will drop to 1.8 feet by Aug. 6, based on rainfall to date.
And the weather service’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting mostly dry weather in the Midwest, upstream of New Orleans, over the next two weeks, which could result in even lower water levels in New Orleans later this summer.

Veatch said the corps’ sill decision will be triggered by the river’s height and speed of its flow at Red River Landing, above Baton Rouge, since tidal flow at the Carrollton Gage complicates its use for long-term estimates of the wedge’s movement.
On Friday, the Red River Landing water level was 17.1 feet, and was forecast to drop to 13.5 feet by Aug. 8. Veatch said a forecast of 10 feet would be required to trigger the sill construction.

The corps has a standing contract with a dredging company to build what amounts to an underwater dam that fills in the lowest part of the river bottom where the saltwater is moving upstream, said Michelle Spraul, project manager for the Mississippi River’s operation from Baton Rouge to the Gulf.

She said about 2.5 million cubic yards of sediment would be dredged from two disposal areas located just upstream to create the sill. She could not estimate the cost of building it.
The sill will raise the bottom of the river to between 50 feet below sea level and 45 feet below sea level, which will still allow ocean-going vessels to move upstream, she said.
No additional dredging will be required to remove the sediment once river levels rise and the flow of fresh water flushes the saltwater out, Spraul said.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137203
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is good. Let's see if other islands like Antigua,Guadeloupe,St Kitts,Nevis,Dominica got the same.


Got some rain here in Antigua. Not as much as I had anticipated but thankful anyway
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Dr. Masters (r) co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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