African tropical wave 99L has potential to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:10 PM GMT on July 30, 2012

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The first African tropical wave of 2012 with a potential to develop is Invest 99L, located in the Eastern Atlantic near 9°N 36°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa. Visible satellite loops show a large area of the surrounding atmosphere has a pronounced counter-clockwise spin, though there is no surface circulation. The disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity is pretty sparse, but appears to be slowly increasing. Water vapor satellite loops show that 99L has a reasonably moist environment, and the latest Saharan air layer analysis shows that the dry air from the Sahara lies well to the north of 99L. WInd shear over the disturbance is a light 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is well above the 26.5°C (80°F) threshold typically needed to allow formation of a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Forecast for 99L
Wind shear is expected to remain light for the next five days, and ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. The disturbance is at 9°N, which is close enough to the Equator that the storm will have some difficultly getting spinning. Most of the models are showing some slow development of 99L, with the storm reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, August 3. NHC gave 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. I expect the storm will have trouble with dry air at times this week as it crosses the Atlantic, but I give 99L a 50% chance of eventually developing into Tropical Storm Ernesto sometime in the next ten days. Residents and visitors to the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate heavy rains and strong winds from 99L beginning to affect the islands as early as Friday night. The long-range fate of 99L is uncertain, but a trough of low pressure is expected to be present over the Eastern U.S. early next week, which would be capable of turning 99L more to the northwest.

Hot in the Central U.S.
The heat in America's heartland continued on Sunday, with Wichita, KS hitting 111°F, just 3° short of their all-time hottest temperature of 114° set on 8/12/1936. Other notable highs on Sunday:

111° Coffeyville, KS
111° Winfield, KS
110° Chanute, KS
110° Parsons, KS
109° Joplin, MO (all-time record is 115° on July 14, 1954)

The low temperature in Tulsa, Oklahoma this Monday morning dropped to only 88°F. This is the all-time warmest low temperature in the city since record keeping began in 1905. The previous record warmest minimum temperature was 87°F set on August 2, 2011 and July 16, 1980. The high in Tulsa Monday - Wednesday is expected to reach 110° - 111°, close to the city's all-time hottest temperature of 115° set on August 10, 1936.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MississippiWx:
I mentioned this earlier, but you're not going to see the NHC jump on 99L's bandwagon too much until it departs from the ITCZ. It's still very far to the south and very much embedded within the convergence zone.


Still, I would have went up to 30%.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30242
Quoting MississippiWx:
I mentioned this earlier, but you're not going to see the NHC jump on 99L's bandwagon too much until it departs from the ITCZ. It's still very far to the south and very much embedded within the convergence zone.



looks pretty well organized to me, I would have gone with 30% considering many of the models develop it within the next 36-72 hours
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
1017. LargoFl
Quoting Civicane49:
..still does not look like its coming together, maybe thats why they kept it at 20%
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33260
1015. Grothar
Quoting Civicane49:
99L:



Looks like its coming together pretty good.
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1014. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
637 PM CDT MON JUL 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN DALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
EASTERN GENEVA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
WESTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 633 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
OZARK...OR NEAR HOOPER STAGE FIELD...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FORT
RUCKER...LEVEL PLAINS...DALEVILLE...NEWTON...PINCKARD...HARTFORD. ..
SLOCOMB AND TAYLOR

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33260
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Quoting MississippiWx:
I mentioned this earlier, but you're not going to see the NHC jump on 99L's bandwagon too much until it departs from the ITCZ. It's still very far to the south and very much embedded within the convergence zone.



Agreed.
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1011. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
634 PM CDT MON JUL 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 627 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH WAS LOCATED 4 MILES
SOUTH OF ANDALUSIA...OR NEAR LIBERTYVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 25
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SANFORD... LIBERTYVILLE... CAROLINA...
ANDALUSIA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HAIL UP TO NEAR ONE INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED JUST SOUTH OF
ANDALUSIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STORM...AND RADAR INDICATES THAT
EVEN LARGER HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33260
I mentioned this earlier, but you're not going to see the NHC jump on 99L's bandwagon too much until it departs from the ITCZ. It's still very far to the south and very much embedded within the convergence zone.

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1009. Grothar
Quoting spathy:


To further understand I am sure most that frequent Wu have friends and coworkers that tease them by asking so what swirl are you watching now,or when is it doom? Type of banter.

Or its just me LOL :O)


Very few of my friends know I track the weather. The few who do, tease the heck out of me. If a storm is threatening, they call here and ask for Weather Central. Or if some are planning and outing, they say, "We better check with .... (real name deleted) first".
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1008. etxwx

Rainstorms sweep parts of China
07-30-2012 13:40 BJT
Heavy rainfall has battered large parts of China since the weekend, from Heilongjiang in the northeast to Fujian in the southeast. The downpours have triggered floods and landslides, blocking traffic and leaving large areas inundated.
The city’s biggest rainfall this year came on Saturday.
Located in northeast China, Suihua has seen almost 140 millimetres of rain since the weekend.
After the storm came flooding... paralysing traffic.
On the same day, heavy downpours were seen in Xilinhot City in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, which saw 80 millimetres of rain.
Days of rainfall flooded bungalows, damaging countless homes.
No casualties were reported due to timely evacuations.
Yao Fu, Local Resident, said, "We left with nothing. It’s impossible for us to take away our belongings. People were transferred by tractors. Or else, they would not leave their houses. My house has become dangerous now, no one dares to enter."
In Linxian County in North China’s Shanxi province, six people were killed and four are still missing.
In just 3 hours, the precipitation rose to nearly 200 millimetres, affecting more than 50 thousand people.
Work teams have been sent by the provincial government to cities along the Yellow River, to prepare for potential floods.
In northwest China’s Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, heavy downpours began on Sunday with its central and northern areas experiencing strengthened downpours.
In the regional capital Yinchuan, torrential rains triggered landslides and floods.
In some parts, water accumulated as high as 300 millimetres, blocking transport arteries.
Over in the southeast, the approach of tropical storms Saola and Damrey has put authorities on high alert.Saola was packing winds up to 90 km per hour at its center on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Damrey is expected to move northwest at a speed of 10 to 15 km per hour.
Liu Ming, Chief Forecaster of Fujian Meteorological Bureau, said, "Damrey is currently moving in a northwest ward direction, it will take a long time to arrive on the mainland. However, it’s still hard to tell which regions will be affected."
China’s flood control authorities on Sunday called for intensified efforts on disaster prevention.
It urged weather authorities to enhance monitoring and to make sure major facilities in cities can resist strong winds and possible flooding as tropical storms were strengthening as they headed toward the country.
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1007. ala2010
Quoting wxchaser97:
I edited the post and now you can click to enlarge.


Thanks. Great graphic!
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oh well
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114048
1005. Patrap
"It's remarkable, but it's completely normal," said Jim Pogue, spokesman for the Army Corps of Engineers in Memphis. "You get a low river, you get a high river, but it's completely normal."

There isn't much man can do to deal with the exceptionally low river, which at Memphis, is just about 6 feet above the record low.

"Pray for rain," said Tommy Hart, director of the port in Greenville, Miss. "I'm not a big fan of rain, but this time I am."
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125503
12z 8-10 Day 500mb mean comparison of the Euro (left) and GFS (right):



The European shows basically zonal flow across the Northern US and the GFS shows subtle troughing over the Eastern Seaboard. The 588DM line extends well into the tropics as well (not favorable for development). I really don't see this getting north of the Caribbean until at least Haiti, if not later. A weaker system is going to stay south, and 99L is already very far to the south. If it isn't a TC by the time it reaches the Caribbean, it's going to have a very difficult time reaching TC status until it either reaches the W Caribbean or penetrates into the SW Atlantic.
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1001. Grothar
Quoting spathy:


They must have been on their own boat while there,or were the evacuation mandates less strict back then?
We were camping on Ft Jefferson when "Dolly?" was threatening,they assured us they would have us out in plenty of time.
Turns out no need for alarm then.
But I was watching and concerned as usual.


Are you talking about Dolly Madison? She was OK.
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1000. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's going to hit Puerto Rico and then move north of the other islands.


Hey come on! XD

Too early in the year, I don't want a storm yet, I'm not prepared mentally to deal with that.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
.
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Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
new update at 8pm on invest 99L WILL IT GO UP TO 30%


I don't foresee any change.
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Quoting ala2010:


Hi WxC97, terrific graphic, but would be a whole let better if I could read it. I could read the valid date better than the relevant tropical information. Not trying to pick, just thought it might help. Have a great evening! Back to lurking..
I edited the post and now you can click to enlarge.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7885
Still 20%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 302330
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7885
000
ABNT20 KNHC 302330
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Quoting Gearsts:
Almost no rain for PR so far.


The PR split as TV met Susan says.
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99L:

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Remains at 20%.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30242
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


it cant go north of puerto rico and hit puerto rico so which is it.

It's going to hit Puerto Rico and then move north of the other islands.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30242
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
POLL TIME!!!!:

Will Invest 99L track:

A) North of the Greater Antilles
B) South of the Greater Antilles
C) Over the Greater Antilles

C/A area, brush PR and then move NW.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7885
Quoting spathy:


They must have been on their own boat while there,or were the evacuation mandates less strict back then?
We were camping on Ft Jefferson when "Dolly?" was threatening,they assured us they would have us out in plenty of time.
Turns out no need for alarm then.
But I was watching and concerned as usual.
They had a 50 ft Gulf-star sailboat. The anchorage area offers little protection from storms. A gust of 90 kts was measured there during Allen,s passage through the Yucatan Channel. My friends father broke both is arms while trying to adjust the the anchor line during the storm.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A and C since Puerto Rico is considered part of the Greater Antilles.


it cant go north of puerto rico and hit puerto rico so which is it.
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Strong Thunderstorms in the Southern California desert and mountains.
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Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7885
Almost no rain for PR so far.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
This sums things up


Hi WxC97, terrific graphic, but would be a whole let better if I could read it. I could read the valid date better than the relevant tropical information. Not trying to pick, just thought it might help. Have a great evening! Back to lurking..
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
POLL TIME!!!!:

Will Invest 99L track:

A) North of the Greater Antilles
B) South of the Greater Antilles
C) Over the Greater Antilles

A and C since Puerto Rico is considered part of the Greater Antilles.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30242
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POLL TIME!!!!:

Will Invest 99L track:

A) North of the Greater Antilles
B) South of the Greater Antilles
C) Over the Greater Antilles
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This sums things up

Click to enlarge
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7885
Quoting Patrap:
Eastern Atlantic
Precipitable Water

Great graphics!!!!,thank you for putting all this unusual graphics on this site.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
604 PM CDT MON JUL 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COFFEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
WESTERN DALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 601 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES NORTH OF ELBA...OR NEAR
WILKINSTOWN...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH. PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE
HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NEW
BROCKTON...LEVEL PLAINS...FORT RUCKER...ENTERPRISE AND DALEVILLE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.



LAT...LON 3152 8620 3153 8620 3154 8615 3161 8615
3162 8614 3162 8573 3121 8569 3120 8571
3119 8612 3118 8612 3119 8613 3119 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 349DEG 11KT 3160 8599



42-DVD
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33260
Quoting LargoFl:

..in the bottom right hand part of the match,you can see just the beginning of the wave coming into view..
Hello,thank you for putting great graphics!!.Do you think this wave east of Puerto Rico will develop into something tropical,it has been growing in size since yesterday,no spin but it might change once it move North of the island (IMO).
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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
359 PM PDT MON JUL 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN DIEGO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA...

* UNTIL 600 PM PDT

* AT 354 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOODING FROM A STORM OVER THE WARNED AREA. RADAR RAINFALL
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES IN THE LAST HOUR.
HOWEVER...SIMILAR STORMS NEARBY HAVE PRODUCED UP TO 2 INCHES IN
THE LAST HOUR...AND HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD BE OCCURRING.

* THE STORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33260
Saltwater wedge moving up the Mississippi River

Low water in the Mississippi River has allowed a “wedge” of saltwater from the Gulf of Mexico to work its way up to mile marker 43, just above the Plaquemines Parish community of Jesuit Bend, but is not yet considered a threat to New Orleans, St. Bernard or Jefferson water supplies, officials with the Army Corps of Engineers said Thursday. Plaquemines Parish officials have measured elevated salinity levels at water intakes in Boothville and Venice, but the lower end of the parish has access to freshwater from a pipeline from Belle Chasse, said Will Veatch, a corps hydrologist. The pipeline was installed after low river events in 1988 and 1999.

Denser, heavier saltwater flows upriver beneath fresh water flowing downstream when the river’s flow drops below normal. The federal drinking water standard for salt is 250 parts per million, which could be violated if the wedge’s upper level reaches the water intakes.
If officials believe the wedge is four weeks away from fouling the upriver freshwater intakes, the corps will block the saltwater from moving upstream by building an underwater sill of dredged sediment at mile marker 63.7, 31 miles below the Canal Street ferry.

But that’s not a threat until the leading edge of the wedge has moved 15 to 25 miles upstream of the intakes, Veatch said, and he said corps officials still don’t believe that will happen this summer.
The surface of the river was at only 2.5 feet above sea level at the Carrollton Gage in New Orleans on Friday, which was slightly higher than a reading of 2.1 feet over last weekend.

But hydrologists with the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center, based in the Slidell office of the National Weather Service, predict the water level will drop to 1.8 feet by Aug. 6, based on rainfall to date.
And the weather service’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting mostly dry weather in the Midwest, upstream of New Orleans, over the next two weeks, which could result in even lower water levels in New Orleans later this summer.

Veatch said the corps’ sill decision will be triggered by the river’s height and speed of its flow at Red River Landing, above Baton Rouge, since tidal flow at the Carrollton Gage complicates its use for long-term estimates of the wedge’s movement.
On Friday, the Red River Landing water level was 17.1 feet, and was forecast to drop to 13.5 feet by Aug. 8. Veatch said a forecast of 10 feet would be required to trigger the sill construction.

The corps has a standing contract with a dredging company to build what amounts to an underwater dam that fills in the lowest part of the river bottom where the saltwater is moving upstream, said Michelle Spraul, project manager for the Mississippi River’s operation from Baton Rouge to the Gulf.

She said about 2.5 million cubic yards of sediment would be dredged from two disposal areas located just upstream to create the sill. She could not estimate the cost of building it.
The sill will raise the bottom of the river to between 50 feet below sea level and 45 feet below sea level, which will still allow ocean-going vessels to move upstream, she said.
No additional dredging will be required to remove the sediment once river levels rise and the flow of fresh water flushes the saltwater out, Spraul said.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125503
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is good. Let's see if other islands like Antigua,Guadeloupe,St Kitts,Nevis,Dominica got the same.


Got some rain here in Antigua. Not as much as I had anticipated but thankful anyway
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.