African tropical wave 99L has potential to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:10 PM GMT on July 30, 2012

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The first African tropical wave of 2012 with a potential to develop is Invest 99L, located in the Eastern Atlantic near 9°N 36°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa. Visible satellite loops show a large area of the surrounding atmosphere has a pronounced counter-clockwise spin, though there is no surface circulation. The disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity is pretty sparse, but appears to be slowly increasing. Water vapor satellite loops show that 99L has a reasonably moist environment, and the latest Saharan air layer analysis shows that the dry air from the Sahara lies well to the north of 99L. WInd shear over the disturbance is a light 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is well above the 26.5°C (80°F) threshold typically needed to allow formation of a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Forecast for 99L
Wind shear is expected to remain light for the next five days, and ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. The disturbance is at 9°N, which is close enough to the Equator that the storm will have some difficultly getting spinning. Most of the models are showing some slow development of 99L, with the storm reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, August 3. NHC gave 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. I expect the storm will have trouble with dry air at times this week as it crosses the Atlantic, but I give 99L a 50% chance of eventually developing into Tropical Storm Ernesto sometime in the next ten days. Residents and visitors to the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate heavy rains and strong winds from 99L beginning to affect the islands as early as Friday night. The long-range fate of 99L is uncertain, but a trough of low pressure is expected to be present over the Eastern U.S. early next week, which would be capable of turning 99L more to the northwest.

Hot in the Central U.S.
The heat in America's heartland continued on Sunday, with Wichita, KS hitting 111°F, just 3° short of their all-time hottest temperature of 114° set on 8/12/1936. Other notable highs on Sunday:

111° Coffeyville, KS
111° Winfield, KS
110° Chanute, KS
110° Parsons, KS
109° Joplin, MO (all-time record is 115° on July 14, 1954)

The low temperature in Tulsa, Oklahoma this Monday morning dropped to only 88°F. This is the all-time warmest low temperature in the city since record keeping began in 1905. The previous record warmest minimum temperature was 87°F set on August 2, 2011 and July 16, 1980. The high in Tulsa Monday - Wednesday is expected to reach 110° - 111°, close to the city's all-time hottest temperature of 115° set on August 10, 1936.

Jeff Masters

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Btw, what's the current position for 99L. I want to make a quick graph.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8041
1318. Patrap



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Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Don't rule out a more westward track similar to Emily:
I still think it's 35% chance for now, but I could agree with 40% as well. I think I'll wait and see what 99L do before going 50%.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8041
1315. Patrap

I'll stick with the Church Friday night fish fry.


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Quoting Grothar:


You forgot to pull your ear.


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1313. Patrap
RAMMB Invest page AL992012 - INVEST
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Got my Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook out a little early tonight.

Please remember that these images are in no way associated with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or any other official government agency.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
Don't rule out a more westward track similar to Emily:
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 541
Also can anyone post the XTRP model?
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
1309. Patrap


I was 8 in 68 and still a Beatle Maniac I believe.

That's a nice poster.
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Hey Pat, This was a good one......



I was at this concert, and 17.....
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From me!!:)
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4898
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well they got to go somewhere its either you or someone else

Ok, I want it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
1305. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
I guess 99L could develop on Wednesday night. Speaking of Wednesday, I will be going to support my local Chick-Fil-A since Wednesday is Chick-Fil-A Appreciation Day.
at the rise of the full moon a storm will be brewing

the moon goes full on thursday aug 2 2012
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So uhh, do you guys think the Euro is going to get back in the game or no?
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
1302. Patrap
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Quoting popartpete:
I see an Irene track. I am in Seaside Heights, New Jersey. Old timers here tell of the ferocity of early history (since 1913) storms, but my generation hasn't seen anything bad in the last 50 years. Big storms came to us in 1938, 1944, and 1954 & 55. None really since. If 99L goes along an East Coast trajectory akin to any of those GFS solutions, our coast is in for a shock. Irene was only a 70 mile per hour tropical storm here and the infrastructure couldn't take it. Imagine if was a Category Two or Three hurricane. They always seem to come spaced together closely in an unusual weather pattern. Let's see.


I think it will move more west or west northwest. If it does move more northwest, it will likely hit further south in SC or NC. Also, the reason why Irene wasn't stronger is because when storms get too far north the conditions quickly become less favorable for hurricanes.
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 541
From me!:)
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4898
1299. Patrap
Yeah, you are what u r.

But apparently yer eyesight needs improving

1232. Patrap 8:11 PM CDT on July 30, 2012 1
..a Lil Elvis is all.

In honor of Civccane49 departure
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1297. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why are they all coming here?
well they got to go somewhere its either you or someone else
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I see an Irene track. I am in Seaside Heights, New Jersey. Old timers here tell of the ferocity of early history (since 1913) storms, but my generation hasn't seen anything bad in the last 50 years. Big storms came to us in 1938, 1944, and 1954 & 55. None really since. If 99L goes along an East Coast trajectory akin to any of those GFS solutions, our coast is in for a shock. Irene was only a 70 mile per hour tropical storm here and the infrastructure couldn't take it. Imagine if was a Category Two or Three hurricane. They always seem to come spaced together closely in an unusual weather pattern. Let's see.
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1295. Patrap
That line was for Civicane49's departure from us for a spell.

Read whatever you like into it along with anyone else.

I could give a Rats rear whatever you or anyone thinks.
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1293. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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now that we have a storm out there whats be care full on what we post in here or you could end up with a 24hr ban


infac too if gets too nuts in here i will go in too lurk mode
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1291. Patrap
Take a walk spathy, and check your Blog fishing line maybe, not too many wuba catfish on yer hook seems.
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Not only in USA / here in PR

Now India:

Excessive demand crashes electric grid in northern India- 370 million left without power in sweltering heat
Posted on July 30, 2012
July 30, 2012 – INDIA - A massive power cut has caused disruption across northern India, including in the capital, Delhi. It hit a swathe of the country affecting more than 300 million people in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan states............Link

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why are they all coming here?




they love you
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1287. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good night everyone. Here's one more 18z GFS ensemble member:


Why are they all coming here?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
1285. Patrap
Nothing like a Huge Haboob..
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1284. ackee
Earl IN 2004 or ERNESTO in 2006 might be likely track for 99L
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Good night everyone. Here's one more 18z GFS ensemble member:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7925


Just another day in Arizona: another day; another massive dust storm
Posted on July 30, 2012
July 30, 2012 – ARIZONA – A second cloud of yellow in less than a week overwhelmed suburban Phoenix on Sunday, mixing with torrential rains and gusty winds that wreaked havoc on midday traffic in the area. The thick wall of dust, known as a haboob, which is Arabic for ‘strong wind,’ was seen making its way through the town of Laveen about eight miles southwest of downtown Phoenix. The greater Phoenix area and northwest and north central Pinal County were under a dust storm warning that expired at 7pm on Sunday. This comes just days after an enormous dust cloud measuring around 2,000 feet tall and almost 100km wide swept over the city, traveling at 35mph. The dust cut power to some 9,000 homes and caused disruptions at the local airport. Caused by Arizona’s monsoon season which begins in early June and runs through till the end of September, haboob’s only occur in Africa, the Middle East, Australia and Phoenix, Arizona. Known as the grand daddy of dust storms, the haboob is a rare event and is caused by loose dust being blown upwards in the absence of rain and collecting skywards where it is then propelled by another more distant thunderstorm brewing behind it. Despite some of the 1.5 million residents of Phoenix objecting to the term haboob being used, meteorologists in the city confirmed that they have been using the Arabic word to describe the massive dust storms for over 30 years. ‘I think what’s going on is that we’ve had a higher frequency of stronger dust storms over the last couple of years and the term has been in play much more because of that,’ said Ken Waters of the Phoenix National Weather Service office to KPHO. Blowing gusts of up to 50 mph at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport, the haboob is destructive because of the fine dust particles that manage to permeate everywhere during the storm. –Daily Mail

Link
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1281. Patrap
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was actually upped to 60 knots.

It was? The warning I read had 55, lol.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7925
1277. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I'm so glad we had this time together.....


You forgot to pull your ear.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
JTWC's new warning on Saola is out... they kept it at 55kts:


It was actually upped to 60 knots.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
1275. Patrap
Corn prices hit record as crops shrivel
By Hibah Yousuf July 30, 2012: 1:21 PM ET



Corn prices surged to a new record high Monday, as the worst drought in more than 50 years continues to plague more than half the country.
Almost 90% of the United States' corn crops are in drought ravaged areas, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and nearly 40% are situated in the hardest hit spots.
Corn prices have soared more than 50% during the past six weeks as the crops continue to shrivel in relentless dry heat throughout the Midwest. They jumped another 3% Monday to a record high of $8.17 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.
The Teucrium Corn ETF (CORN), which tracks a basket corn futures contracts, gained 2.5%.
Soybean prices, which are up more than 20% in recent weeks, also advanced. Prices rose 1% Monday to touch $16.17 per bushel, the highest since July 23. The Teucrium Soybean ETF (SOYB) gained more than 2%.
Soybean prices will likely continue to rise as the heat lingers in the area where soybeans are the major crop.
"Soybeans are second only to corn as the biggest agricultural product in the Midwest," said Alex Sosnowski, expert senior Meteorologist at AccuWeather.com. "While episodes of rain will continue over some agricultural areas in the Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley and East in the coming weeks, part of primary soybean growing areas will continue to be slammed by heat and drought."

Related: Get ready to pay more for your steak
Sosnowski notes that the next few weeks are crucial for soybeans. From now through mid-August is when soybeans finish their flowering stage and set pods, so mid-August is considered the cut-off for soybeans to receive rainfall without having a serious impact on production. Without rain, soybean yields are likely to be between 10% and 15% lower than the USDA had originally projected.

Prices for wheat, another grain, have also been rising on the back of corn and soybean prices. Prices for wheat futures rose more than 2% Monday, and the Teucrium Wheat ETF (WEAT) gained 1.6%.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

How did u make that?


Windows 7 paint.... lol
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1273. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

No Active Atlantic Tropical Warnings
July-30-12, 9:30:02 PM | Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO)
As of Tue, 31 Jul 2012 01:30:02 GMT
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1272. Guysgal
Quoting Patrap:
..and now, the end is near, I feel I face, my final Blog post..


Why?
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Quoting stormchaser19:
For me this is the path of ernesto:

Yellow 20%
Orange 30%
Red 50%

How did u make that?
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Quoting Patrap:

When the Music's over



Uploaded by jessycalewilliamson on Feb 14, 2012

Jim Morrison's last night on stage with The Doors was at The Warehouse in New Orleans Louisiana on December 12, 1970. This short film uses interviews with The Warehouse owners, employees and a fan to tell the story of what really happened that night. This is a small portion of my larger documentary "A Warehouse on Tchoupitoulas" which delves into all the goings on at New Orleans' most infamous music venue.


I never saw them... Though they were ahead of time and marked that decade...

Jefferson Airplane, Gratefull Death and others were in our ears...

Thanks for the Youtube link and the info...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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