Oil industry-funded "BEST" study finds global warming is real, manmade

By: Angela Fritz , 12:21 AM GMT on July 30, 2012

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The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) group is in the news again, surprising climate change skeptics with results from a new study that shows the earth has warmed 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, and that "essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases." Dr. Richard Muller, who heads the BEST team, now considers himself a "converted skeptic," which he wrote about in a New York Times op-ed on Saturday:

"Call me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I'm now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause."

Not only is the lead scientist of the project a former climate change skeptic, BEST itself is funded by the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, an organization that is rooted deep in the oil industry and the manufactured doubt industry. Two years ago a report found that the Koch brothers outspent Exxon Mobile in science disinformation at a whopping $48.5 million since 1997. Despite the special interest of their funders, BEST has made it clear, both on their website and in the results they've come to, that funding sources will not play a role in the results of their research, and that they "will be presented with full transparency."

Figure 1. The BEST surface temperature reconstruction (black) with a 95% confidence interval (grey). The overlying curve (red) is a curve fit to the temperature reconstruction based on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and volcanic activity.

Muller's research comes to essentially the same conclusion as similar well-known studies on the topic of global temperature rise. It attempts to address the question of attribution—how much has the globe warmed, and what is to blame? They found that solar activity relates very little to the fluctuations in temperature over the past 250 years, and that the warming is "almost entirely" due to greenhouse gas emissions, combined with some variability from volcanic eruptions. It's important to note that while Muller and his team found warming of 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, the IPCC did not find quite that much warming in their AR4 assessment.

BEST was in the news in October when they released results from their first independent study of surface temperature, which set out to address some common skeptic concerns about previous temperature reconstructions (e.g. NASA, NOAA, and HadCRU), including the urban heat island effect and the potential "cherry picking" of data. Both of these concerns were found to be non-issues. BEST concluded that the urban heat island effect does not contribute significantly to the land temperature rise. In fact, in their new study, they were able to reproduce the warming trend using nothing but rural stations.

BEST Part II doesn't necessarily bring anything new to the science as it currently exists; we've known for decades that the planet is warming and the cause is manmade. But in this case the scientific process played out the way it should: a skeptic of a certain scientific result took on the project, and was open and willing to accept whatever result the science gave him. We now have another batch of results in the group of well-known temperature reconstructions, funded by big-oil-interests, that tells us the planet is warming and that the cause is fossil fuel emissions.

Angela

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Straight into Central America. It does bring the first wave into the SE US which could be good for rain.

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 245
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Considering the Euro is taking too long to develop this system (due to its weak initialization of the system at 0-hour)...it naturally could have a south bias...so it may not pan out that way. Typically (but not always)... the faster a system develops...the further north it ends up...


The orientation of the high has nothing to do with how quickly the system develops. A ridge is of a much larger horizontal scale than a tropical cyclone.
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I can see Invest AL99 Taking a similar path to Gustav 2008...
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Quoting cajunroach:
the 144 hr euro is not good for the GOM. that big bermuda high looks like it is not going to back off.

Considering the Euro is taking too long to develop this system (due to its weak initialization of the system at 0-hour)...it naturally could have a south bias...so it may not pan out that way. Typically (but not always)... the faster a system develops...the further north it ends up...
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the 144 hr euro is not good for the GOM. that big bermuda high looks like it is not going to back off.
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
Quoting allancalderini:
Oh my the bams have it near me thank God all the shear in the Caribbean will kill it of.

LBAR has it doing a loop-ty-loop SE of the Lesser Antilles and then its gone. Isn't the LBAR usually clueless anyway? LOL
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Oh my the bams have it near me thank God all the shear in the Caribbean will kill it of.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4401
Quoting KoritheMan:


From his perspective it's not. Neither Beryl nor Debby had any significant impact on south Florida.

True dat...I guess N Florida bloggers are satisified with Debby and Beryl...but not S Florida...
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

C'mon...he'd be gettin greedy. Florida already had Beryl...wasn't that enough?


I thought up in Russia...a low-rida is one that recurves into Spain or somethin...


From his perspective it's not. Neither Beryl nor Debby had any significant impact on south Florida.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Was it you guys wishing for some rain in PR? If so, hoping you get it with this latest wave, might need to keep an eye on Invest 99L downstream.

Yeah...I think before we talk about the CONUS or Mexico...definetly Caribbean interests should watch 99L till its clearer where its headed...no kiddin.
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615. ENSO2012 6:28 AM GMT on July 30, 2012 +0
Quoting Skyepony:
99L



IM LOVING THOSE TRACKS, JASON, ^_^.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: July 28, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 221




wow i was sure i lovehurricanes13 was jasoniscoolman

not sky
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Not much development yet on here

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 245
Quoting ENSO2012:
I gotta say, I'm loving the track and intensity plots for soon-to-be, Ernesto, =).

FINGERS CROSSED.

Hopefully he'll turn into an eventual Florida threater!


Cmon Jan, I'm moving out of South FL on the 10th, keep the coast clear until then. Can you do this for just one storm and wish it to slow down, please?
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol. That's going to happen anyway. Pretty sure JFV has already fainted from the excitement.

C'mon...he'd be gettin greedy. Florida already had Beryl...wasn't that enough?

Quoting RussianWinter:


Hmm, for me it sounds more like one of those dead straight storms that make a westward landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula or somethin.

I thought up in Russia...a low-rida is one that recurves into Spain or somethin...
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Was it you guys wishing for some rain in PR? If so, hoping you get it with this latest wave, might need to keep an eye on Invest 99L downstream.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting ENSO2012:


IM LOVING THOSE TRACKS, JASON, ^_^.


Whut?

That's not Jason, he is the guy below her.

Also, at this time, there is no indication for a Florida landfall. Don't get your hopes up yet.
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
Quoting sunlinepr:


Sorry, looks like we posted the same at the same time....

Anyhow interesting tropics....

Bedtime...
It's definitely ok, we both thought of the same thing at the same time. Night sunline.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7949
Floater out for 99L
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7949
Quoting wxchaser97:
You just beat me to that, interesting SHIPS intensity forecast.


Sorry, looks like we posted the same at the same time....

Anyhow interesting tropics....

Bedtime...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
right yellow circle with 20% is it taged invest yet


Yes, Sir!

Invest 99L, Sir!
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
609. Skyepony (Mod)
99L

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Quoting KoritheMan:


Low-ri-da to me screams Isidore or Gustav. But that's just my Louisiana bias showing.


Hmm, for me it sounds more like one of those dead straight storms that make a westward landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula or somethin.
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
right yellow circle with 20% is it taged invest yet
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12157
Quoting Drakoen:
UKMET 00z

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.5N 49.2W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 02.08.2012 12.5N 49.2W WEAK

12UTC 02.08.2012 12.8N 52.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 03.08.2012 13.7N 55.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.08.2012 14.4N 58.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.08.2012 15.3N 61.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.08.2012 16.8N 65.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.08.2012 18.6N 68.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


Good to see you, Drak.

Looks like the UKMET want to take it into at least the Eastern Caribbean.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Just a reminder...A closed isobar does not represent a closed low. When we have several closed isobars, then you can take it to the bank that you have a closed low.

I think the Euro is out to lunch with this one anyway...so even in 3-days it still doesn't have a closed low (more than 1 closed isobar)...

On the other hand...the CMC might turn out too bullish...because this system may take longer to develop a tight center where all t-storms can focus around.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


low-ri-da rhymes with flo-ri-da...don't get that crowd excited....


Lol. That's going to happen anyway. Pretty sure JFV has already fainted from the excitement.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Farthest north solution at 120 hours:

BAMD 11.1N 43.3W 11.9N 47.8W 12.9N 52.3W 14.7N 56.8W

I'd say they want 99L to be a low-ri-da.
That would put it due west of Martinique by around 250 miles.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
UKMET 00z

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.5N 49.2W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 02.08.2012 12.5N 49.2W WEAK

12UTC 02.08.2012 12.8N 52.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 03.08.2012 13.7N 55.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.08.2012 14.4N 58.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.08.2012 15.3N 61.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.08.2012 16.8N 65.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.08.2012 18.6N 68.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Ruh-roh.
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
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Quoting sunlinepr:
You just beat me to that, interesting SHIPS intensity forecast.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7949
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


low-ri-da rhymes with flo-ri-da...don't get that crowd excited....


Low-ri-da to me screams Isidore or Gustav. But that's just my Louisiana bias showing.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
Well, I hope that 20% dissipates, I don't want anything west-bound developing yet.
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Farthest north solution at 120 hours:

BAMD 11.1N 43.3W 11.9N 47.8W 12.9N 52.3W 14.7N 56.8W

I'd say they want 99L to be a low-ri-da.


low-ri-da rhymes with flo-ri-da...don't get that crowd excited....
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Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7949
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
Relevant excerpt regarding Hurricane Gustav in 2008:

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING IN THE
CARIBBEAN. WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM.
ANALYSIS OF DIRECTIONAL AMBIGUITIES FROM A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS
INDICATED A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. THEREFORE WE ARE
INITIATING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. AN SSM/IS
IMAGE FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO DEPICTED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE AT THE 91
GHZ FREQUENCY...BUT IT WAS NOT EVIDENT ON THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL.
SINCE THE LATTER CHANNEL IS MORE SENSITIVE TO THE LOWER-LEVELS...
THIS EYE-LIKE FEATURE WAS PRIMARILY ALOFT. INTERESTINGLY
HOWEVER...THE GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES ALSO SHOW A RELATIVELY CLEAR
AREA NEAR THE CENTER THAT RESEMBLES AN EYE. OUR INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 30 KT BASED ON AN EARLIER REPORT
FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 42059. OBSERVATIONS FROM AN UPCOMING AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SHOULD GIVE UPDATED INFORMATION ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED OVER
ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. CURIOUSLY...THE GFS HAS FAILED
TO PREDICT DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE THUS FAR.


INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 305/13 ALTHOUGH RECENT IMAGES SUGGEST THAT
THE MOTION MAY BE A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THIS VALUE. THERE IS AN
UNUSUALLY LARGE SPREAD TO OUR TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SEEMS TO BE
THE RESULT OF TWO PRIMARY SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE MOTION OF THE
SYSTEM. ONE WOULD BE A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK INTO A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THIS IS
DEPICTED BY THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. A SECOND SCENARIO IS
FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO BEND MORE WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER FLORIDA...AND THAT IS DEPICTED BY THE
BAM TRACKS...THE HWRF...AND THE GFDL. OUR FIRST OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST SOMEWHAT SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BUT LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER
SCENARIO. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS NOT HIGH...PARTICULARLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

THIS FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
AND WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 15.5N 70.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 16.5N 71.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 17.6N 72.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 18.8N 73.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 19.7N 74.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 21.0N 75.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 22.0N 77.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 30/1200Z 22.5N 78.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

NNNN

Meaning, the Euro being slow or unwilling to develop it doesn't necessarily mean anything (though it would be good to have it join the bandwagon).
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AtHome is very sweet. She'd be one of those people that just brings you peace when you hang around her.
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Off to bed..G'night folks.. :)

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6844

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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