Oil industry-funded "BEST" study finds global warming is real, manmade

By: Angela Fritz , 12:21 AM GMT on July 30, 2012

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The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) group is in the news again, surprising climate change skeptics with results from a new study that shows the earth has warmed 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, and that "essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases." Dr. Richard Muller, who heads the BEST team, now considers himself a "converted skeptic," which he wrote about in a New York Times op-ed on Saturday:

"Call me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I'm now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause."

Not only is the lead scientist of the project a former climate change skeptic, BEST itself is funded by the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, an organization that is rooted deep in the oil industry and the manufactured doubt industry. Two years ago a report found that the Koch brothers outspent Exxon Mobile in science disinformation at a whopping $48.5 million since 1997. Despite the special interest of their funders, BEST has made it clear, both on their website and in the results they've come to, that funding sources will not play a role in the results of their research, and that they "will be presented with full transparency."

Figure 1. The BEST surface temperature reconstruction (black) with a 95% confidence interval (grey). The overlying curve (red) is a curve fit to the temperature reconstruction based on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and volcanic activity.

Muller's research comes to essentially the same conclusion as similar well-known studies on the topic of global temperature rise. It attempts to address the question of attribution—how much has the globe warmed, and what is to blame? They found that solar activity relates very little to the fluctuations in temperature over the past 250 years, and that the warming is "almost entirely" due to greenhouse gas emissions, combined with some variability from volcanic eruptions. It's important to note that while Muller and his team found warming of 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, the IPCC did not find quite that much warming in their AR4 assessment.

BEST was in the news in October when they released results from their first independent study of surface temperature, which set out to address some common skeptic concerns about previous temperature reconstructions (e.g. NASA, NOAA, and HadCRU), including the urban heat island effect and the potential "cherry picking" of data. Both of these concerns were found to be non-issues. BEST concluded that the urban heat island effect does not contribute significantly to the land temperature rise. In fact, in their new study, they were able to reproduce the warming trend using nothing but rural stations.

BEST Part II doesn't necessarily bring anything new to the science as it currently exists; we've known for decades that the planet is warming and the cause is manmade. But in this case the scientific process played out the way it should: a skeptic of a certain scientific result took on the project, and was open and willing to accept whatever result the science gave him. We now have another batch of results in the group of well-known temperature reconstructions, funded by big-oil-interests, that tells us the planet is warming and that the cause is fossil fuel emissions.

Angela

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Whee! Yellow circle!

Morning everybody... getting my last cup of coffee before I get outta here...
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I see we got a yellow circle too

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156 hours-GFS

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the CMC aint joking..Good Morning Everyone

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Does anyone have any idea what caused the apparently regular, and quite pronounced, temperature fluctuations, from about 1750 to 1900, in the graph at the top of the page?

The periodicity is too long to be due to the 11 year solar cycle, and there's no way it's just 'random'. Any ideas?
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681. SpFox
Is that a pinhole eye? OMG!!
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I keep forgetting the UKMET. :)

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

LOW PRES CENTER 1012 MB CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN ITCZ NEAR 10N34W
MOVING W AT 13 KT EXPECTED TO APPROACH TROPICAL ATLC LATE THU.
MODEL GUIDANCE STRENGTHENS FEATURE. ALL MODELS RECOGNIZE SYSTEM
AND MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN ITS TRACK AND TIMING WITH AGAIN GFS
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ONE. FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE BY
BLENDING WITH A TAMER UKMET.




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678. emguy
I agree regarding the GFS. Although, I do not want this to be confused with the overall performance of this model this season...which has been "more reliable". Overall setup for the ridge allows for such a track as this becomes more organized.

In other news, watch the wave that has entered the Carribean. It's a dark horse. It has always had a nice, yet broad circulation envelope with it. It's slightly more interesting now.
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I see no evidence of El Nino effects looking at the graphs.  In fact, we are two 

weeks early with this spike of activity and the MJO will be coming back mid

August.

Fasten you seat belts!
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Quoting RussianWinter:


Lol, for me, no scenarios can be favorable until the Hurricane Hunters have scouted the area. Until then his guess is as good as mine.


I agree. Synoptic surveillance missions are a must.
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The Gfs track is the most likely imo for now good night people.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Liking as in that's the one you favor, or liking as in that's what you are wishing for?


Lol, for me, no scenarios can be favorable until the Hurricane Hunters have scouted the area. Until then his guess is as good as mine.
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
Quoting AussieStorm:
I am liking this scenario
CMC 144hrs



CMC Ensemble
240Hrs



Liking as in that's the one you favor, or liking as in that's what you are wishing for?
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I am liking this scenario
CMC 144hrs



CMC Ensemble
240Hrs

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670. txjac
I'll keep my fingers crossed and hope for the best ...you guys will have to put up with mom in meltdown if it goes that way
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Quoting txjac:
What ever happens and if something does come west ..I just want it to stay away from Guatemala ...my daughter is there doing charity work, building homes. I couldnt bear to think of anything going through without me there


I know how you feel. I was a little nervous when the NHC had Debby pointing at my son in Bay City. Hope nothing bad comes of this.
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Quoting txjac:
What ever happens and if something does come west ..I just want it to stay away from Guatemala ...my daughter is there doing charity work, building homes. I couldnt bear to think of anything going through without me there


That scenario is not out of the question. Alert her of the situation at once, things like this are always a concern.
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192hrs GFS
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666. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SAOLA (1209)
15:00 PM JST July 30 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon South Of Okinawa

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Saola (980 hPa) located at 20.1N 124.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 21.7N 124.5E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - South of Ishigaki Island
48 HRS: 23.6N 123.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 26.1N 122.3E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - East China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (1210)
15:00 PM JST July 30 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Ogasawara Waters

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Damrey (996 hPa) located at 25.4N 144.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 27.0N 140.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Ogasawara Waters
48 HRS: 29.2N 134.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 31.4N 127.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - East China Sea
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665. txjac
What ever happens and if something does come west ..I just want it to stay away from Guatemala ...my daughter is there doing charity work, building homes. I couldnt bear to think of anything going through without me there
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Late night blog for those of us still up.
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Quoting RussianWinter:


Lol, it's always a challenge for mother nature.


Every once in a while something big and unpredictable comes up.


Lol. I'm getting a little superstitious. Big and unpredictable are two apt words for Ike. According to climatology no storm had ever come into the gulf from as far north as he got in the Atlantic or something like that. Just goes to show ya never know where one of these may end up.
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Quoting robert88:
More like this...but not even close to intensity lol


I think a Gustav is a likely scenario right now.
Track and intensity with the TCHP and SST's the way they are.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah Ike was rare in that he made it all the way to Texas at all. We don't get that many long trackers. Please Mother Nature that's not a challenge. :) lol Believe me we remember the ones you do send.


Lol, it's always a challenge for mother nature.


Every once in a while something big and unpredictable comes up.
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Quoting robert88:
More like this...but not even close to intensity lol



Whoa there, don't scare the bloggers like that.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Possible track



Impossible track


Yeah Ike was rare in that he made it all the way to Texas at all. We don't get that many long trackers. Please Mother Nature that's not a challenge. :) lol Believe me we remember the ones you do send.
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More like this...but not even close to intensity lol

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Quoting ENSO2012:
G'nite, everybody, which includes you, GEORGE!

I ain't going to bed. it's 17:10 here in Sydney.
BTW you have a FB message from me.
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Possible track



Impossible track
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That setup has SA or MX bound written all over it.
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Finally rounds the high ends up on the Yucatan/BOC

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Quoting ENSO2012:


why isn't the euro impressed with it? =(

See comment 648. I think its because its 0-hour representation of 99L is too weak....the Euro doesn't really know how impressive it is right now....

The models are only as good as the 0-hour initialization. If it thinks a hurricane is there at 0-hour...then it think there is a hurricane. If it thinks nothing is there at 0-hour...it will show nothing...
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So now you have the GFS and EURO on board showing the wave going into the Caribbean graveyard. The models are saying it's just not ripe yet...but getting closer. The CMC is worthless and over does intensity imo
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Quoting KoritheMan:


The orientation of the high has nothing to do with how quickly the system develops. A ridge is of a much larger horizontal scale than a tropical cyclone.

No...I was saying the Euro takes too long to develop 99L because its representation of 99L at 0-hour is too weak. The CMC initialization at 0-hour is the other extreme...it shows it better than any other model does at 0-hour...
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Good night everyone, should be one interesting/great day today.
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Quoting ENSO2012:


why isn't the euro impressed with it? =(


To drive us crazy. :)
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Drew, if it weren't for all of my blog posts, I wouldn't give two ***** if I got banned. What's the point when I can just... make a new account?
same lol
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Either Gustav or Ike 2008...depending on how fast this develops.
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Quoting Stormchaser121:
I can see Invest AL99 Taking a similar path to Gustav 2008...


I hope not. My work schedule up to that point has already been compiled and finalized, so I can't request off for a day or two of hurricane chasing.
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Straight into Central America. It does bring the first wave into the SE US which could be good for rain.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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