Oil industry-funded "BEST" study finds global warming is real, manmade

By: Angela Fritz , 12:21 AM GMT on July 30, 2012

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The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) group is in the news again, surprising climate change skeptics with results from a new study that shows the earth has warmed 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, and that "essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases." Dr. Richard Muller, who heads the BEST team, now considers himself a "converted skeptic," which he wrote about in a New York Times op-ed on Saturday:

"Call me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I'm now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause."

Not only is the lead scientist of the project a former climate change skeptic, BEST itself is funded by the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, an organization that is rooted deep in the oil industry and the manufactured doubt industry. Two years ago a report found that the Koch brothers outspent Exxon Mobile in science disinformation at a whopping $48.5 million since 1997. Despite the special interest of their funders, BEST has made it clear, both on their website and in the results they've come to, that funding sources will not play a role in the results of their research, and that they "will be presented with full transparency."

Figure 1. The BEST surface temperature reconstruction (black) with a 95% confidence interval (grey). The overlying curve (red) is a curve fit to the temperature reconstruction based on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and volcanic activity.

Muller's research comes to essentially the same conclusion as similar well-known studies on the topic of global temperature rise. It attempts to address the question of attribution—how much has the globe warmed, and what is to blame? They found that solar activity relates very little to the fluctuations in temperature over the past 250 years, and that the warming is "almost entirely" due to greenhouse gas emissions, combined with some variability from volcanic eruptions. It's important to note that while Muller and his team found warming of 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, the IPCC did not find quite that much warming in their AR4 assessment.

BEST was in the news in October when they released results from their first independent study of surface temperature, which set out to address some common skeptic concerns about previous temperature reconstructions (e.g. NASA, NOAA, and HadCRU), including the urban heat island effect and the potential "cherry picking" of data. Both of these concerns were found to be non-issues. BEST concluded that the urban heat island effect does not contribute significantly to the land temperature rise. In fact, in their new study, they were able to reproduce the warming trend using nothing but rural stations.

BEST Part II doesn't necessarily bring anything new to the science as it currently exists; we've known for decades that the planet is warming and the cause is manmade. But in this case the scientific process played out the way it should: a skeptic of a certain scientific result took on the project, and was open and willing to accept whatever result the science gave him. We now have another batch of results in the group of well-known temperature reconstructions, funded by big-oil-interests, that tells us the planet is warming and that the cause is fossil fuel emissions.

Angela

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Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
very bad



Anyone form FL to Maine is fair bet with this one but that only if it survives crossing Hispanola. Those mountians across Hispanola are over 10,000 feet tall.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Easy there son as this system has to make thru the Caribbean first and 2 a pretty stout trough is going to set up across the east so this system wont make any further west than the Yucatan.

Yeah, that first one I posted is highly unlikely. However, the second one that brings it into New England is actually quite possible; that member brings the system on a CMC like path, which would allow it to strengthen quite a bit. Not saying it will happen but it's possible.
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Gotta love the doom and gloom on here when we don't even have an organized system yet and the Caribbean is very hostile. Also throw in the fact that this system will like have to cross the greater Anitilles to get to the US if it makes it.
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Quoting yonzabam:


One inhibiting factor has already been mentioned by Dr. Masters earlier in the season - sinking air across the hurricane zone.

It suppressed hurricane formation last year, and the drought associated with high pressure over much of the US means that there will probably be sinking air over the tropical Atlantic again this year.
no.shortage.of.storms.last.yr?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
These are a couple ensemble members from the 18z GFS last night:






Easy there son as this system has to make thru the Caribbean first and 2 a pretty stout trough is going to set up across the east so this system wont make any further west than the Yucatan.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
IMO, no el Nino impacts likely for another 6 - 8 weeks....



We may already be beginning to feel the affects of El-nino as through is beginning to set up across the Midwest and east coast US and this feature will only get strong as the weeks go on.

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These are a couple ensemble members from the 18z GFS last night:




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Quoting mcluvincane:


Good morning, the low looks to be organizing quite well and conditions are improving. I see no reason this baby can't achieve decent cyclone status once the low closes off. One to watch for sure


One inhibiting factor has already been mentioned by Dr. Masters earlier in the season - sinking air across the hurricane zone.

It suppressed hurricane formation last year, and the drought associated with high pressure over much of the US means that there will probably be sinking air over the tropical Atlantic again this year.
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Meanwhile in India...wow! Apparently this is not uncommon there but still I couldn't imagine.

Major blackout hits northern Indian cities

NEW DELHI (AP) — Northern India's power grid crashed Monday, halting hundreds of trains, forcing hospitals and airports to use backup generators and leaving 370 million people — more than the population of the United States and Canada combined — sweltering in the summer heat...

The power deficit was worsened by a weak monsoon that lowered hydroelectric generation and kept temperatures higher, further increasing electricity usage as people seek to cool off. Shivpal Singh Yadav, the power minister in the state of Uttar Pradesh, home to 200 million people, said that while demand during peak hours hits 11,000 megawatts, the state can only provide 9,000 megawatts.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
so i go to bed and we get yellow circles and invests so fast?
Im never going to sleep again.... :P

and Levi's inverted Vs win again.

Some models want to beef up this wave, i dont know if it has enough time before the caribbean

The one that really beefs it up, the CMC, takes it north of the Caribbean; I think that's its only chance to become a decent storm, the Caribbean is just to hostile right now.
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Quoting islander101010:
hispanola.might.protect.florida.on.this.one..sorr y. .for.them


Yeah if this storm hits Hispanola then it will most likely go POOF. The GFS is consistant in bringing a strong TS right into Hispanola then dissipating after it makes landfall. A couple of things of note though for one this isn't going to Texas and 2 if it can miss Hispanola then anybody from the eastern Gulf and up to the Carolina Coast need to watch this one. Here are some words of reason for the blog this morning as it seems it's been bananas on here lately.

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Quoting islander101010:
hispanola.might.protect.florida.on.this.one..sorr y. .for.them



Not from florida but it "might" miss Hispaniola all together...
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hispanola.might.protect.florida.on.this.one..sorry. .for.them
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
so i go to bed and we get yellow circles and invests so fast?
Im never going to sleep again.... :P

and Levi's inverted Vs win again.

Some models want to beef up this wave, i dont know if it has enough time before the caribbean


Good morning, the low looks to be organizing quite well and conditions are improving. I see no reason this baby can't achieve decent cyclone status once the low closes off. One to watch for sure
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early.ones.dont.turn.out.to.sea.easily
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Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL... I remember the consternation in the blog when the models started presenting that track... nobody believed it when it actually started happening...


That's what keeps us comin' back. :)
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Right... I really gotta run now... will catch up later...

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so i go to bed and we get yellow circles and invests so fast?
Im never going to sleep again.... :P

and Levi's inverted Vs win again.

Some models want to beef up this wave, i dont know if it has enough time before the caribbean
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I think it could have only been the high building back in that turned him. From what I know now anyway. I had only started following the tropics that year after Edouard.

LOL... I remember the consternation in the blog when the models started presenting that track... nobody believed it when it actually started happening...
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Quoting yonzabam:


The largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century, Mount Pinatubo, cooled the Earth by just 0.5C the following year, and just 0.2C the year after that.

It's possible the period 1750-1900 might have been much more volcanically active than in recent times, but volcanism isn't a cyclical pnenomenon, so I think you have to rule that one out.

The graph could be highlighting an unknown climatic forcing factor, and one with cyclical characteristics. It's extremely intriguing.
The low periods between 1750 and 1900 could have been influenced by vulcanism... IIRC, some pretty hefty eruptions occurred at times that at least potentially parallel the dips in the graph; Taupu? Krakatoa, etc...I also note the swings have been getting smaller with time, which would also correspond with relatively smaller eruptions in the 20th century...

But it would be interesting to see if there isn't something else influencing.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah... Ike was supposed to head right up the Bahamian chain, similiar to Irene but further west, then hit FL and points north... the high built back, right? Otherwise it looked like a GA/SC/NC threat to start with...



I think it could have only been the high building back in that turned him. From what I know now anyway. I had only started following the tropics that year after Edouard.

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Even though the operational dropped the storm at the 240 hour, the ensemble spread still has it for the GFS





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Quoting bluheelrtx:
Since the line label says CO2 and volcanic activity, I would guess it was volcanic. A quick search matched up a couple of major eruptions that coincide with those dates, but not all of them, so I could be wrong.


The largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century, Mount Pinatubo, cooled the Earth by just 0.5C the following year, and just 0.2C the year after that.

It's possible the period 1750-1900 might have been much more volcanically active than in recent times, but volcanism isn't a cyclical pnenomenon, so I think you have to rule that one out.

The graph could be highlighting an unknown climatic forcing factor, and one with cyclical characteristics. It's extremely intriguing.
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A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N55W
THROUGH A 1020 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N71W CONTINUING W
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL LIFT N TO 28N MON AND ALONG 29N TUE THEN SHIFT BACK S
AGAIN ON WED AND THU. THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT.

From the 2:05 a.m. TWD...
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Good morning. 99L is slowly organizing.

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Hey ackee... looks like the first serious threat to the Caribbean for the season...
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705. ackee
Good morning I see we have 99L if it track in the Caribbean seem like shear will be high. I think the GFS is leading other model by far this season and it solution on 99L seem more likely to happen than the CMC to me. interesting times awaits Us

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http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movi es/wg8dlm1/wg8dlm1java.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/mo vies/wg8shr/wg8shrjava.html

Shear tendencies on the rise
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I notice a lot of pple are posting potential tracks, and I'm like WHOA, there horsey... we just got a yellow circle a couple hours ago... there's still a long way to go before we even get a TD out of this... IF we do.... and then we will have a better idea of where this ends up.

One thing I have to mention is that the high softens up about as much as it has since the beginning of July over the next 96 hrs, so I wouldn't run for that low-rider track just yet. I wouldn't be surprised to see this up near 15N by the time it gets to the Antilles.

After that point, just about anything is possible,IMO, because I'm still a bit suspicious about what the Twave in front of it is going to do. If that spins up enough to emphasise a weakness in the ridge, we could see this system N of the Antilles before it gets to the CONUS.

Basically, just about anything is possible. The model spread is as wide as it is because right now just about any of them is possible.

Gotta run. L8r all...
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Quoting unknowncomic:
I see no evidence of El Nino effects looking at the graphs.  In fact, we are two 

weeks early with this spike of activity and the MJO will be coming back mid

August.

Fasten you seat belts!
IMO, no el Nino impacts likely for another 6 - 8 weeks....

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Typhoon Saola:

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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. I'm getting a little superstitious. Big and unpredictable are two apt words for Ike. According to climatology no storm had ever come into the gulf from as far north as he got in the Atlantic or something like that. Just goes to show ya never know where one of these may end up.
Yeah... Ike was supposed to head right up the Bahamian chain, similiar to Irene but further west, then hit FL and points north... the high built back, right? Otherwise it looked like a GA/SC/NC threat to start with...

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There were others posting possible tracks earlier in the night...this could be a possible track minus intensity and the loop


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Quoting yonzabam:
Does anyone have any idea what caused the apparently regular, and quite pronounced, temperature fluctuations, from about 1750 to 1900, in the graph at the top of the page?

The periodicity is too long to be due to the 11 year solar cycle, and there's no way it's just 'random'. Any ideas?
Since the line label says CO2 and volcanic activity, I would guess it was volcanic. A quick search matched up a couple of major eruptions that coincide with those dates, but not all of them, so I could be wrong.
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It seems to be a trend that the GFS is killing this system around 204 hours in the Caribbean:



Probably an indication that this will need to take a more northerly, CMC like track to strengthen much.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Definitely trending north:



Good morning, by the way!
I don't like that, too close! Im 100% sure tracks will change plus we still don't have anything well define to track.
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189 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15134
Quoting yonzabam:
Does anyone have any idea what caused the apparently regular, and quite pronounced, temperature fluctuations, from about 1750 to 1900, in the graph at the top of the page?

The periodicity is too long to be due to the 11 year solar cycle, and there's no way it's just 'random'. Any ideas?

The fluctuations from 1750 to 1850 are also present in the red curve which is "a curve fit to the temperature reconstruction based on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and volcanic activity." After 1850 the fluctuations you mention depart from the red line. It would be interesting to see the residuals plotted.
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Definitely trending north:



Good morning, by the way!
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168 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15134
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol. That's going to happen anyway. Pretty sure JFV has already fainted from the excitement.
Considering he was in the blog all yesterday and hyperventilating abt just the possibility... lol

Didn't Taz say today was another day???

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Whee! Yellow circle!

Morning everybody... getting my last cup of coffee before I get outta here...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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