Oil industry-funded "BEST" study finds global warming is real, manmade

By: Angela Fritz , 12:21 AM GMT on July 30, 2012

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The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) group is in the news again, surprising climate change skeptics with results from a new study that shows the earth has warmed 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, and that "essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases." Dr. Richard Muller, who heads the BEST team, now considers himself a "converted skeptic," which he wrote about in a New York Times op-ed on Saturday:

"Call me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I'm now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause."

Not only is the lead scientist of the project a former climate change skeptic, BEST itself is funded by the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, an organization that is rooted deep in the oil industry and the manufactured doubt industry. Two years ago a report found that the Koch brothers outspent Exxon Mobile in science disinformation at a whopping $48.5 million since 1997. Despite the special interest of their funders, BEST has made it clear, both on their website and in the results they've come to, that funding sources will not play a role in the results of their research, and that they "will be presented with full transparency."

Figure 1. The BEST surface temperature reconstruction (black) with a 95% confidence interval (grey). The overlying curve (red) is a curve fit to the temperature reconstruction based on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and volcanic activity.

Muller's research comes to essentially the same conclusion as similar well-known studies on the topic of global temperature rise. It attempts to address the question of attribution—how much has the globe warmed, and what is to blame? They found that solar activity relates very little to the fluctuations in temperature over the past 250 years, and that the warming is "almost entirely" due to greenhouse gas emissions, combined with some variability from volcanic eruptions. It's important to note that while Muller and his team found warming of 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, the IPCC did not find quite that much warming in their AR4 assessment.

BEST was in the news in October when they released results from their first independent study of surface temperature, which set out to address some common skeptic concerns about previous temperature reconstructions (e.g. NASA, NOAA, and HadCRU), including the urban heat island effect and the potential "cherry picking" of data. Both of these concerns were found to be non-issues. BEST concluded that the urban heat island effect does not contribute significantly to the land temperature rise. In fact, in their new study, they were able to reproduce the warming trend using nothing but rural stations.

BEST Part II doesn't necessarily bring anything new to the science as it currently exists; we've known for decades that the planet is warming and the cause is manmade. But in this case the scientific process played out the way it should: a skeptic of a certain scientific result took on the project, and was open and willing to accept whatever result the science gave him. We now have another batch of results in the group of well-known temperature reconstructions, funded by big-oil-interests, that tells us the planet is warming and that the cause is fossil fuel emissions.

Angela

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HWRF go up 55MPH TS!!
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AL, 99, 2012073012, , BEST, 0, 87N, 355W, 20, 1010, LO
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No Active Atlantic Tropical Warnings
July-30-12, 8:45:01 AM | Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO)
As of Mon, 30 Jul 2012 12:45:01 GMT
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785. SLU
895

WHXX01 KWBC 301245

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1245 UTC MON JUL 30 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992012) 20120730 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120730 1200 120731 0000 120731 1200 120801 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 8.7N 35.5W 8.9N 38.5W 9.0N 41.7W 8.9N 44.8W

BAMD 8.7N 35.5W 8.8N 37.3W 8.9N 39.2W 9.2N 41.1W

BAMM 8.7N 35.5W 9.0N 37.5W 9.2N 39.7W 9.5N 41.8W

LBAR 8.7N 35.5W 8.8N 37.0W 8.9N 39.1W 9.2N 41.4W

SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 26KTS 33KTS

DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 26KTS 33KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120801 1200 120802 1200 120803 1200 120804 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 8.7N 47.9W 7.7N 52.8W 7.1N 56.5W 7.6N 58.9W

BAMD 9.5N 43.1W 10.1N 46.8W 11.2N 51.0W 13.3N 56.1W

BAMM 9.8N 44.0W 10.5N 47.9W 11.4N 52.0W 13.3N 57.0W

LBAR 9.3N 43.9W 9.5N 48.8W 9.9N 53.4W 12.0N 57.9W

SHIP 43KTS 63KTS 73KTS 75KTS

DSHP 43KTS 63KTS 73KTS 75KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 8.7N LONCUR = 35.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 4KT

LATM12 = 8.7N LONM12 = 34.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 3KT

LATM24 = 8.7N LONM24 = 34.1W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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Quoting Waltanater:
There is only one mountain that is slightly higher than 10K on Hispanola, the others in the region are well below, but still enough to tear a system up.


Really?

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HWRF
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
#775... looks like Caribboy is getting his rain...
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Q. What will 99L go up to at 2:00PM
A.20%
B.30%
C.40%
Q. Will 99L go to U.S
A. yes
B. No
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Quoting Grothar:
The atmosphere is moistening up a little better now.



However, the High may be a little east as the wave approaches the Antilles. This should allow a little more WNW or even NW movement in a few days. Depending on the strength of the system it should be moving North of the Antilles. The timing of the trough which is expected off the NE coast of the US should also be important. I do see a steady strengthening of this system in the next few days.



This is what I was noticing earlier this morning. Does add some spice to potential track... might it also mean slower tradewinds in the CAR?
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Quoting StormTracker2K:



Anyone form FL to Maine is fair bet with this one but that only if it survives crossing Hispanola. Those mountians across Hispanola are over 10,000 feet tall.
There is only one mountain that is slightly higher than 10K on Hispanola, the others in the region are well below, but still enough to tear a system up.
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502

WHXX04 KWBC 301139

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L



INITIAL TIME 6Z JUL 30



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 9.6 34.3 275./13.0

6 9.6 35.5 270./11.9

12 9.5 36.2 267./ 7.2

18 9.5 37.3 268./10.6

24 9.6 38.0 281./ 7.6

30 9.8 39.0 280./ 9.5

36 10.2 40.0 292./11.1

42 10.6 41.2 289./11.9

48 10.9 42.6 282./13.9

54 11.3 43.9 286./13.2

60 11.7 45.3 283./15.0

66 11.6 46.7 268./13.5

72 11.6 48.0 270./12.6

78 11.8 49.3 277./12.3

84 11.9 50.6 277./13.4

90 12.1 52.1 279./14.7

96 12.5 53.7 283./15.8

102 13.0 55.4 286./17.4

108 13.7 57.2 291./19.0

114 13.9 59.0 275./16.8

120 14.3 60.5 284./15.8

126 14.8 62.1 287./16.0


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NHC/TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecasts
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
The blog just exploded wow!


RANDOM BLOGGER:
"YAWN....."
"Checks www.nhc.noaa.gov"
*SCREAMS WITH DELIGHT*
*GOES TO WUNDERGROUND.COM

thats about how it works
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Quoting Pocamocca:

No kidding. Let the condescending ones patronize. We'll see plenty of it. But We'll ignore it.
Not patronizing. [I don't get into that garbage... life is too short.] Basically I was pointing out that it's too early to settle on one particular track, and explaining why I felt that way.

What's your take on 99L? Wait and see? or do you have a scenario in mind?

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Quoting StormTracker2K:
This maybe the remants of 99L reforming near FL after getting torn apart by Hispanola.



Like Emily in 2011
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The atmosphere is moistening up a little better now.



However, the High may be a little east as the wave approaches the Antilles. This should allow a little more WNW or even NW movement in a few days. Depending on the strength of the system it should be moving North of the Antilles. The timing of the trough which is expected off the NE coast of the US should also be important. I do see a steady strengthening of this system in the next few days.



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The blog just exploded wow!
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Quoting ncstorm:


Whoa there Horsey..you are talking about a potential track..aint that the same thing as posting one?
Basically, just about anything is possible. The model spread is as wide as it is because right now just about any of them is possible. My point is... some of the other posts were showing tracks to / through particular places... I was suggesting possible influences on track...

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


If 99L takes the northern track we could get quite a stronger storm rather then one being torn to shreds by wind shear going through the middle of the Carriabian correct?
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
This maybe the remants of 99L reforming near FL after getting torn apart by Hispanola.




Best I can tell it is.
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Quoting biff4ugo:
Good Morning/Evening.

I don't know how to react to oil funded results that say oil is the problem. ??? Isn't that like cigarette companies saying, we've know for years that cigarettes are addictive?

What does the dust level look like?

Favorite misquote of the day:
from stormtracker, "Biggest threat are in my mind"
...

Have a safe monday.


Easy I'm only on one cup of coffee so far. LOL
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764. 7544
morning all antilles wave still holding and looking good today is it moving w or wnw tia
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This maybe the remants of 99L reforming near FL after getting torn apart by Hispanola.


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Good Morning/Evening.

I don't know how to react to oil funded results that say oil is the problem. ??? Isn't that like cigarette companies saying, we've know for years that cigarettes are addictive?

What does the dust level look like?

Favorite misquote of the day:
from stormtracker, "Biggest threat are in my mind"
...

Have a safe monday.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Yes, the conditions are not too bad to slowly develop before it reaches the islands.


Yeah I wouldn't rule out a hurricane coming into the southern Leeward islands. Where's the guy from Trindad as this will be right in his lap in a few days?

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Quoting Grothar:
Doesn't look like much now, but give it time.




Yes, the conditions are not too bad to slowly develop before it reaches the islands.
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Quoting Grothar:


How do you think I always know where these things are going? :) How you doing TX?? I guess GeoffWPB got his yellow circle.


Lol. You must have quite the bag of tricks. :) Yep, the yellow circle and the invest came at the same time nearly.
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Doesn't look like much now, but give it time.


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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hadn't seen that one before. Thanks. :)


How do you think I always know where these things are going? :) How you doing TX?? I guess GeoffWPB got his yellow circle.
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Quoting Grothar:
Here is where one of the models has it moving.



Hadn't seen that one before. Thanks. :)
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too.early.to.say.its.not.going.to.texas.not.even.a. td.yet
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Here is where one of the models has it moving.

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Well, I see we have our circle. Just like I wrote in my blog on the morning of the 28th.


Here is the first wave just entering the Antilles. Looks like they may get some needed rain.

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Quoting BahaHurican:
I notice a lot of pple are posting potential tracks, and I'm like WHOA, there horsey... we just got a yellow circle a couple hours ago... there's still a long way to go before we even get a TD out of this... IF we do.... and then we will have a better idea of where this ends up.

One thing I have to mention is that the high softens up about as much as it has since the beginning of July over the next 96 hrs, so I wouldn't run for that low-rider track just yet. I wouldn't be surprised to see this up near 15N by the time it gets to the Antilles.

After that point, just about anything is possible,IMO, because I'm still a bit suspicious about what the Twave in front of it is going to do. If that spins up enough to emphasise a weakness in the ridge, we could see this system N of the Antilles before it gets to the CONUS.

Basically, just about anything is possible. The model spread is as wide as it is because right now just about any of them is possible.

Gotta run. L8r all...


Whoa there Horsey..you are talking about a potential track..aint that the same thing as posting one?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16223
Quoting floridaT:
looks like levi nailed this one with his inverted V theory


How Levi nail this one if it hasn't even formed?
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I'm out I'd figured I stop by and give the blog some facts about the upcoming scenario before other elite blog memebers come on and denounce DOOM on the US or say this is going to TX which it isn't. Bottomline we need to watch and wait as we have plenty of time to see what will come of 99L as for now it is still very disorganized and may take a few more days to organize more. Biggest threat area in my mind is the SE US as that trough isn't strong enough yet for a full recurve out to sea.
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Quoting RussianWinter:


Ruh-roh.


Good morning I see y'all just had to get an invest and the first post I see is the one above LOL I hope that isn't a bad omen :)
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I fear massive floodings and mudslides as Typhoon Saola moves thru the Taiwan area.Here is the Taiwan radar.

Link
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looks like levi nailed this one with his inverted V theory
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Quoting Tazmanian:



you neeed too look back at the 2009 and 2006 hurricane season and look where they ended


2006 ended in SEP

why 2009 hurricane season endded in NOV even no we did not see a hole lot in SEP or OCT that year we still got one more name storm in nov



am thinking if things play out this right with a weak or MOD EL Nino this season may likey end in SEP this like it did in 2006 or it we may not see marh in SEP or OCT like in 2009 and we may get one more storm in NOV


so you nevere no when it comes too EL nino not evere EL Nino will be the same and not evere season will be the same
You really need work on your spelling there.
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This precip map pretty much sums it up a trough over the east and a Death Ridge over TX. So TX is pretty much out of the question with this system however the Eastern US could be in trouble if 99L can manage to hold itself together while crossing the Caribbean Islands.

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While I still wouldn't call them favorable, conditions in the Caribbean have improved in the past couple days.

Shear is down to normal levels:



And instability, while still below average, is up:

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00Z
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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