Oil industry-funded "BEST" study finds global warming is real, manmade

By: Angela Fritz , 12:21 AM GMT on July 30, 2012

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The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) group is in the news again, surprising climate change skeptics with results from a new study that shows the earth has warmed 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, and that "essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases." Dr. Richard Muller, who heads the BEST team, now considers himself a "converted skeptic," which he wrote about in a New York Times op-ed on Saturday:

"Call me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I'm now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause."

Not only is the lead scientist of the project a former climate change skeptic, BEST itself is funded by the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, an organization that is rooted deep in the oil industry and the manufactured doubt industry. Two years ago a report found that the Koch brothers outspent Exxon Mobile in science disinformation at a whopping $48.5 million since 1997. Despite the special interest of their funders, BEST has made it clear, both on their website and in the results they've come to, that funding sources will not play a role in the results of their research, and that they "will be presented with full transparency."

Figure 1. The BEST surface temperature reconstruction (black) with a 95% confidence interval (grey). The overlying curve (red) is a curve fit to the temperature reconstruction based on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and volcanic activity.

Muller's research comes to essentially the same conclusion as similar well-known studies on the topic of global temperature rise. It attempts to address the question of attribution—how much has the globe warmed, and what is to blame? They found that solar activity relates very little to the fluctuations in temperature over the past 250 years, and that the warming is "almost entirely" due to greenhouse gas emissions, combined with some variability from volcanic eruptions. It's important to note that while Muller and his team found warming of 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, the IPCC did not find quite that much warming in their AR4 assessment.

BEST was in the news in October when they released results from their first independent study of surface temperature, which set out to address some common skeptic concerns about previous temperature reconstructions (e.g. NASA, NOAA, and HadCRU), including the urban heat island effect and the potential "cherry picking" of data. Both of these concerns were found to be non-issues. BEST concluded that the urban heat island effect does not contribute significantly to the land temperature rise. In fact, in their new study, they were able to reproduce the warming trend using nothing but rural stations.

BEST Part II doesn't necessarily bring anything new to the science as it currently exists; we've known for decades that the planet is warming and the cause is manmade. But in this case the scientific process played out the way it should: a skeptic of a certain scientific result took on the project, and was open and willing to accept whatever result the science gave him. We now have another batch of results in the group of well-known temperature reconstructions, funded by big-oil-interests, that tells us the planet is warming and that the cause is fossil fuel emissions.

Angela

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Not bad.

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Quoting Waltanater:
Sorry, your link doesn't work! :)




not sure how that link got there


Link





try now
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836. 7544
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
xx/xx/xx


lol this one could surpise us all
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Quoting Tazmanian:


we all ready have a blog for Climate Change and Global Warming

Link
Sorry, your link doesn't work! :)
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Yea,

The NHC found its box of crayons! Now the wait and see starts.
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xx/xx/xx
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models

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I think the Barbados and St. Lucia need keep a sharper eye out for that developing wave, than us here in Trinidad. Ivan (the terrible) in its embryonic stage was much further west than this one.
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Quoting Waltanater:
If Jeff Masters, or his assistant, is reading this, I would like to make a request to better the quality of discussions:

Create two blogs. One for "Climate Change and Global Warming" and the other for "Hurricanes and Tropical Weather."

I always see bloggers bicker about the purpose of this blog. Separating topics may help...just a thought.


we all ready have a blog for Climate Change and Global Warming

Link
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Quoting Waltanater:
If Jeff Masters, or his assistant, is reading this, I would like to make a request to better the quality of discussions:

Create two blogs. One for "Climate Change and Global Warming" and the other for "Hurricanes and Tropical Weather."

I always see bloggers bicker about the purpose of this blog. Separating topics may help...just a thought.


Great idea since Global Warming doesn't exist
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Quoting Waltanater:
If Jeff Masters, or his assistant, is reading this, I would like to make a request to better the quality of discussions:

Create two blogs. One for "Climate Change and Global Warming" and the other for "Hurricanes and Tropical Weather."

I always see bloggers bicker about the purpose of this blog. Separating topics may help...just a thought.

I agree.
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I look forward to Levi's outlook although it really is too early to think of tracks.


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If Jeff Masters, or his assistant, is reading this, I would like to make a request to better the quality of discussions:

Create two blogs. One for "Climate Change and Global Warming" and the other for "Hurricanes and Tropical Weather."

I always see bloggers bicker about the purpose of this blog. Separating topics may help...just a thought.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
30/1145 UTC 8.9N 35.1W TOO WEAK 99L -- Atlantic

???
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30/1145 UTC 8.9N 35.1W TOO WEAK 99L -- Atlantic
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
8AM GFS go up

Wow. Look at the intensity model SHIPS has it up to 75 knots in 120 hours
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


That's a dangerous track for the US
looks.like.ivans
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8AM GFS go up
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I don't 100% agree with the 95% confidence interval for that BEST graph for the entire 250 years...maybe for the last 50 years, but not for the duration. They didn't start their research until recently and are relying on past records, which may be inaccurate, not even taking the data samples themselves. The level of confidence is set by the researcher. They are using data from the past 250 years, yet they are comparing it to current data in which the sampling techniques are much more advanced with high accuracy!

Any thoughts?
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815. 7544
looks like 99l could be a fl strom imo some models seem to be trending it that direction
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Quoting Pocamocca:

I think you better. Might be a wise move for you.
Geez... why r u so grouchy this morning??? We have a yellow circle... it has potential to develop... happy days are here again!

:o)
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Science gets political with those citing the "Manufactured doubt industry" and others citing the "Manufactured data industry". Dr. Richard Muller reaches the right conclusion given the data he used, but an even newer study shows half of the global warming in the USA is artificial.

Around and around we go.
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Quoting Grothar:
Shear is still very strong in the Caribbean.

Well current wind shear in the Caribbean means nothing to 99L right now. What matters is what is the wind shear when 99L gets there. That being said is it supposed to be higher or lower?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
No problem... not like what some people say will stop others from posting what they think anyway.... lol... and next time I'll use italics instead...



okay Baha..LOL!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15288
810. ryang
The ''center'' seems further south...now 8.7N
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Quoting ncstorm:
I think we can all agree that just let people post and comment on what they think a potential storm will do..if they want to say they believe its going to a certain place..its okay, they can say that..some people are excited to see models finally form something..

I wont bold my comments though:)
No problem... not like what some people say will stop others from posting what they think anyway.... lol... and next time I'll use italics instead...

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Quoting mcluvincane:
Since we are on the topic of global warming, i myself don't believe the hype.... the earth has warmed many times in its life, millions of years of heating and cooling. It's a process that is a part of why we even exist. If the earth never warmed after the ice age we would never exist. Get use to it.....


You have no idea how incorrect you are, and you'll never realize it.
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Shear is still very strong in the Caribbean.

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806. ryang
Interesting that the BAM suite shifted further to the south.
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Droughts always seem to end in floods:

More damage expected after floods in North Korea kill dozens

and a TC started it.
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At 12z,SHIP makes it a hurricane.

WHXX01 KWBC 301245
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 UTC MON JUL 30 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992012) 20120730 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120730 1200 120731 0000 120731 1200 120801 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.7N 35.5W 8.9N 38.5W 9.0N 41.7W 8.9N 44.8W
BAMD 8.7N 35.5W 8.8N 37.3W 8.9N 39.2W 9.2N 41.1W
BAMM 8.7N 35.5W 9.0N 37.5W 9.2N 39.7W 9.5N 41.8W
LBAR 8.7N 35.5W 8.8N 37.0W 8.9N 39.1W 9.2N 41.4W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 26KTS 33KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 26KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120801 1200 120802 1200 120803 1200 120804 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.7N 47.9W 7.7N 52.8W 7.1N 56.5W 7.6N 58.9W
BAMD 9.5N 43.1W 10.1N 46.8W 11.2N 51.0W 13.3N 56.1W
BAMM 9.8N 44.0W 10.5N 47.9W 11.4N 52.0W 13.3N 57.0W
LBAR 9.3N 43.9W 9.5N 48.8W 9.9N 53.4W 12.0N 57.9W
SHIP 43KTS 63KTS 73KTS 75KTS
DSHP 43KTS 63KTS 73KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.7N LONCUR = 35.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 8.7N LONM12 = 34.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 8.7N LONM24 = 34.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14260
Quoting Grothar:
The atmosphere is moistening up a little better now.



However, the High may be a little east as the wave approaches the Antilles. This should allow a little more WNW or even NW movement in a few days. Depending on the strength of the system it should be moving North of the Antilles. The timing of the trough which is expected off the NE coast of the US should also be important. I do see a steady strengthening of this system in the next few days.






damm Gro that wave near the Cape Verde islands looks like it want to become our next invest.
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SHIPS and ships always beef up storms.

remember what the ship did to alberto's intensity, and all of those unrealistically strong SHIPS model runs
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Quoting Pocamocca:

Whoa there horsey. After you get you cup of coffee and wake up, why don't you scroll up a little to see what I said. Um, er...that should help.
OH... I see... the thing that's in your craw is the "whoa, there, horsey"... lol... This is what happens when people come from different dialect / regional backgrounds... Means the same as "hold your horses" out my way ... no insult or condescending intended... and since I've had THREE cups of coffee, I think I better lay off rather than have another... lol


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Quoting ncstorm:
I think we can all agree that just let people post and comment on what they think a potential storm will do..if they want to say they believe its going to a certain place..its okay, they can say that..some people are excited to see models finally form something..

I wont bold my comments though:)


I man I really give you props all the time because you are one of the few on here that makes a lot of sense. I was just telling Grother this.
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For all you wishers and hopers out there this is going to be a painfully long wait, if this invest can hold together and make it to the islands albeit not until late in the weekend, the chances of it making the trek to the conus are IMO slim to none. But I will be reading the blog just the same to see who makes the biggest fool of themselves.
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Quoting Waltanater:
You really need work on your spelling there.





some of you guys really need too learn too say nothing out all some of you guys dont do good on your spelling has well so if where you i would not say a word
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XX/INV/99L
MARK
10.05N/35.36W


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Now it go up to a Hurricane!!
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793. SLU
New SHIPS stronger and BAM suite further south.
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I think we can all agree that just let people post and comment on what they think a potential storm will do..if they want to say they believe its going to a certain place..its okay, they can say that..some people are excited to see models finally form something..

I wont bold my comments though:)
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15288
895

WHXX01 KWBC 301245

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1245 UTC MON JUL 30 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992012) 20120730 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120730 1200 120731 0000 120731 1200 120801 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 8.7N 35.5W 8.9N 38.5W 9.0N 41.7W 8.9N 44.8W

BAMD 8.7N 35.5W 8.8N 37.3W 8.9N 39.2W 9.2N 41.1W

BAMM 8.7N 35.5W 9.0N 37.5W 9.2N 39.7W 9.5N 41.8W

LBAR 8.7N 35.5W 8.8N 37.0W 8.9N 39.1W 9.2N 41.4W

SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 26KTS 33KTS

DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 26KTS 33KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120801 1200 120802 1200 120803 1200 120804 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 8.7N 47.9W 7.7N 52.8W 7.1N 56.5W 7.6N 58.9W

BAMD 9.5N 43.1W 10.1N 46.8W 11.2N 51.0W 13.3N 56.1W

BAMM 9.8N 44.0W 10.5N 47.9W 11.4N 52.0W 13.3N 57.0W

LBAR 9.3N 43.9W 9.5N 48.8W 9.9N 53.4W 12.0N 57.9W

SHIP 43KTS 63KTS 73KTS 75KTS

DSHP 43KTS 63KTS 73KTS 75KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 8.7N LONCUR = 35.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 4KT

LATM12 = 8.7N LONM12 = 34.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 3KT

LATM24 = 8.7N LONM24 = 34.1W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q. What will 99L go up to at 2:00PM
A.20%
B.30%
C.40%
Q. Will 99L go to U.S
A. yes
B. No


AB or BB but for now i go with BB
(it may make it to the US eventually but will have lost most of its form)
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
HWRF


That's a dangerous track for the US
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HWRF go up 55MPH TS!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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