Oil industry-funded "BEST" study finds global warming is real, manmade

By: Angela Fritz , 12:21 AM GMT on July 30, 2012

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The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) group is in the news again, surprising climate change skeptics with results from a new study that shows the earth has warmed 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, and that "essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases." Dr. Richard Muller, who heads the BEST team, now considers himself a "converted skeptic," which he wrote about in a New York Times op-ed on Saturday:

"Call me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I'm now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause."

Not only is the lead scientist of the project a former climate change skeptic, BEST itself is funded by the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, an organization that is rooted deep in the oil industry and the manufactured doubt industry. Two years ago a report found that the Koch brothers outspent Exxon Mobile in science disinformation at a whopping $48.5 million since 1997. Despite the special interest of their funders, BEST has made it clear, both on their website and in the results they've come to, that funding sources will not play a role in the results of their research, and that they "will be presented with full transparency."

Figure 1. The BEST surface temperature reconstruction (black) with a 95% confidence interval (grey). The overlying curve (red) is a curve fit to the temperature reconstruction based on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and volcanic activity.

Muller's research comes to essentially the same conclusion as similar well-known studies on the topic of global temperature rise. It attempts to address the question of attribution—how much has the globe warmed, and what is to blame? They found that solar activity relates very little to the fluctuations in temperature over the past 250 years, and that the warming is "almost entirely" due to greenhouse gas emissions, combined with some variability from volcanic eruptions. It's important to note that while Muller and his team found warming of 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, the IPCC did not find quite that much warming in their AR4 assessment.

BEST was in the news in October when they released results from their first independent study of surface temperature, which set out to address some common skeptic concerns about previous temperature reconstructions (e.g. NASA, NOAA, and HadCRU), including the urban heat island effect and the potential "cherry picking" of data. Both of these concerns were found to be non-issues. BEST concluded that the urban heat island effect does not contribute significantly to the land temperature rise. In fact, in their new study, they were able to reproduce the warming trend using nothing but rural stations.

BEST Part II doesn't necessarily bring anything new to the science as it currently exists; we've known for decades that the planet is warming and the cause is manmade. But in this case the scientific process played out the way it should: a skeptic of a certain scientific result took on the project, and was open and willing to accept whatever result the science gave him. We now have another batch of results in the group of well-known temperature reconstructions, funded by big-oil-interests, that tells us the planet is warming and that the cause is fossil fuel emissions.

Angela

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Good morning! I see we have 99L.
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Quoting Articuno:

What's that?


I don't remember, that was back in April :)
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
859 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

FLZ012-014-015-026-027-112-114-115-127-301400-
INLAND BAY FL-INLAND GULF FL-COASTAL WAKULLA FL-COASTAL GULF
FL-COASTAL BAY FL-COASTAL FRANKLIN FL-INLAND FRANKLIN FL-INLAND
WAKULLA FL-LIBERTY FL-
859 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BAY...FRANKLIN...
GULF...LIBERTY AND WAKULLA COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 1000 AM EDT/900 AM CDT/

AT 754 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS 5 MILES WEST OF MEXICO BEACH...OR NEAR DAVIS
BEACH...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT (8 5 0)
9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...CONTACT LAW ENFORCEMENT.

LAT...LON 2965 8535 2990 8537 3019 8582 3003 8440
2991 8433 2991 8453 2981 8464 2983 8456
2981 8456 2979 8458 2982 8470 2968 8487
2978 8489 2969 8517 2961 8502 2977 8469
2976 8469 2968 8478 2958 8505
TIME...MOT...LOC 1259Z 282DEG 15KT 2997 8548

$$

60-VISE
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Quoting Waltanater:
Create two blogs. One for "Climate Change and Global Warming" and the other for "Hurricanes and Tropical Weather."
The previous blog was about severe weather outbreaks, as are many of the off season and slow period blogs. Do you feel those should also have a separate blog or do you think that they could cooexist with one or the other of your suggestions?
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
11 or 12th


A system like Charley on 8/13/2012. What an anniversary that would be huh.
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Quoting Grothar:


I'm still sticking with my original numbers from April!!

What's that?
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Here is an A-G choice on possible tracks for the CV storms based on observed climatology during the peak:

A. Southern Track below the Greater Antilles on the way to Central America due to strong ridging in the Caribbean;

B. Medium-Southern track below the Greater Antilles with entry into the Gulf of Mexico via Western Cuba or the Yucatan Channel;

C. More Central Track towards PR/Hispanola/Cuba with those Islands taking the "hit" for the US and possible dissipation after interaction with those Islands;

D. More Northern Track just clipping PR on the way towards the Bahamas and Florida;

E. Medium Northern track off the Coast of the Eastern Seaboard and impacting the Carolinas and up the Eastern Coast;

F: Northern trajectory between the US and Bermuda with possible threats to Bermuda;

G. Classic fish trajectories missing Bermuda in the Central Atlantic;

All of these general tracks are of course subject to the timing of Trofs, ENSO cycle, and short term variability in the steering currents and ridges which is where the models come in in trying to sort all these factors out for any particular storm.

As noted by Dr. M, it is not possible to determine exactly how all these pieces will fall together more than 10 days out for any given storm.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
11 or 12th
..ok ty
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Heard on TWC a bit ago that we may have Ernesto in a few days.
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This wave to over the NE Caribbean looks very good this morning.


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11 or 12th
Quoting LargoFl:
.............IF this were to go to Florida...whats the best bet on timeline guys?
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I agree with separating into two blogs. Both are interesting topics and deserve individual standing.

Quoting Waltanater:
If Jeff Masters, or his assistant, is reading this, I would like to make a request to better the quality of discussions:

Create two blogs. One for "Climate Change and Global Warming" and the other for "Hurricanes and Tropical Weather."

I always see bloggers bicker about the purpose of this blog. Separating topics may help...just a thought.
I agree.
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............................meanwhile back at the ranch..nice and quiet,sunny and hot
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Quoting Articuno:

Wow. Look at the intensity model SHIPS has it up to 75 knots in 120 hours
.............IF this were to go to Florida...whats the best bet on timeline guys?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we could go in a fast and furious mode for the next two months till this time in sept


I'm still sticking with my original numbers from April!!
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869. ARiot
Great blog topic today

Anyone who cares to comment, when would we expect the ring-of-fire high pressure system(s) to break up or move off the poor folks who have suffered so much this summer?

I would think it would have lost out by now. I'm not complaining becuase it will pull some instability into the TN Valley, bringing us some rain. But I do want it gone for the sake of folks broiling right now....
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
FL!!
..we surely dont need the rain and wind here,better it goes into the gulf and brings all that rain to the drought area's up the middle
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Quoting Tazmanian:


we all ready have a blog for Climate Change and Global Warming

Link


Well why does everyone use this one for it?
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Quoting Articuno:

could it possibly effect the system in it's future
should be gone by the time 99 gets near there if it even goes that way at all
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Q. If it go to the U.S
A. FL
B. SC
C. NC
D. NY
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861. TXCWC
Early runs on this are telling us the key to how strong/organized this is by the time it reaches the conus is going to be the amount of INTERACTION (IF ANY) WITH HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. Sadly these nations seem to be too often an effective barrier between storms and the U.S.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




not sure how that link got there


Link





try now
This is a blog created by someone else. My request was for Dr. Masters to specifically create a separate blog of his own.
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Quoting Grothar:






Nice big disturbance over central Africa, too!

we could go in a fast and furious mode for the next two months till this time in sept
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yes and its moving slowly towards western southern fla

could it possibly effect the system in it's future
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Quoting StormTracker2K:



damm Gro that wave near the Cape Verde islands looks like it want to become our next invest.






Nice big disturbance over central Africa, too!

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Quoting Articuno:

is that an ULL I see over cuba?
yes and its moving slowly towards western southern fla
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Good Morning.

Whether this wave develops or not, the current steering pattern of the A-B high favors that trajectory on the models through the Leewards then further in towards the Greater Antilles or Gulf on the way towards the US. Even if El Nino conditions lower the numbers at the back end, if we get one or two majors during the peak, and this general steering pattern holds going into mid-late August, we are not going to get too many recurvatures.

From Dr. M's July outlook:

There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2010 and 2011 steering current pattern, which recurved most storms out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, which steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

If this current pattern (the unfavorable one) holds true for the peak, it's going to boil down to the timing of the Fall trofs during the entry of any particular storm into the Caribbean, or, the northern approach route into the Southern Bahamas North of Puerto Rico.
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LATEST STEERING
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
FL!!


ensemble split, one group with CMC idea, others with the rest of the models into the caribbean.

Hispaniola avoiding all ensembles
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Liking as what I wish for, out to sea.

Where is ENSO2012? has he been banned?

Nope. He's not banned. He might come back on IDK.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q. If it go to the U.S
A. FL
B. SC
C. NC
D. NY


A,B,C and B/C georgia. It will travel up the coast and affect everyone. Hopefully only as a Trop Storm or weak hurricane.

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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q. If it go to the U.S
A. FL
B. SC
C. NC
D. NY

E. Georgia
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Liking as in that's the one you favor, or liking as in that's what you are wishing for?

Liking as what I wish for, out to sea.

Where is ENSO2012? has he been banned?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

is that an ULL I see over cuba?
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And if 99 does develop and head to FLA this is good how? we don't really need the rain. Insurance is crazy high and would go higher. I will take a weak TS but that is all. I am sure the rest of you along the US coastline will agree with me....
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FL!!
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Q. If it go to the U.S
A. FL
B. SC
C. NC
D. NY
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
This guy agrees with me:

By Kirk Mellish

If no tropical storm forms this month it will be the first time since 2009 without one in July. ENSO update: The Pacific conditions continue to indicate a near neutral temperature profile in the South Pacific Ocean.

The consensus forecast is for a weak El Nino to continue developing and peaking in late fall or early winter, with just over an 80% probability of El Nino October-December in the 3.4 region.

This continues to indicate a near-normal to below-normal hurricane season this year (11-ish storms). Dry Saharan desert dust air extends from North Africa, really near India all the way to near Florida. This dry air destroys seeds for long-track hurricanes, another reason for quiet in the tropics.
early.start.cv.season..its.not.slow.headed.to.but terfly.island
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
despite the ragged look, this is probably the strongest and most consistent wave that came off africa with a strong circulation. the GFS ensembles have 2 tracks. 1 in the carribean and 1 in the NE carribean moving wnw which results in either a recurvuture west of bermuda OR a continuation of WNW into the bahamas and into florida. the track will get better once we get a TD
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This guy agrees with me:

By Kirk Mellish

If no tropical storm forms this month it will be the first time since 2009 without one in July. ENSO update: The Pacific conditions continue to indicate a near neutral temperature profile in the South Pacific Ocean.

The consensus forecast is for a weak El Nino to continue developing and peaking in late fall or early winter, with just over an 80% probability of El Nino October-December in the 3.4 region.

This continues to indicate a near-normal to below-normal hurricane season this year (11-ish storms). Dry Saharan desert dust air extends from North Africa, really near India all the way to near Florida. This dry air destroys seeds for long-track hurricanes, another reason for quiet in the tropics.
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Not bad.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.