Oil industry-funded "BEST" study finds global warming is real, manmade

By: Angela Fritz , 12:21 AM GMT on July 30, 2012

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The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) group is in the news again, surprising climate change skeptics with results from a new study that shows the earth has warmed 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, and that "essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases." Dr. Richard Muller, who heads the BEST team, now considers himself a "converted skeptic," which he wrote about in a New York Times op-ed on Saturday:

"Call me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I'm now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause."

Not only is the lead scientist of the project a former climate change skeptic, BEST itself is funded by the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, an organization that is rooted deep in the oil industry and the manufactured doubt industry. Two years ago a report found that the Koch brothers outspent Exxon Mobile in science disinformation at a whopping $48.5 million since 1997. Despite the special interest of their funders, BEST has made it clear, both on their website and in the results they've come to, that funding sources will not play a role in the results of their research, and that they "will be presented with full transparency."

Figure 1. The BEST surface temperature reconstruction (black) with a 95% confidence interval (grey). The overlying curve (red) is a curve fit to the temperature reconstruction based on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and volcanic activity.

Muller's research comes to essentially the same conclusion as similar well-known studies on the topic of global temperature rise. It attempts to address the question of attribution—how much has the globe warmed, and what is to blame? They found that solar activity relates very little to the fluctuations in temperature over the past 250 years, and that the warming is "almost entirely" due to greenhouse gas emissions, combined with some variability from volcanic eruptions. It's important to note that while Muller and his team found warming of 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, the IPCC did not find quite that much warming in their AR4 assessment.

BEST was in the news in October when they released results from their first independent study of surface temperature, which set out to address some common skeptic concerns about previous temperature reconstructions (e.g. NASA, NOAA, and HadCRU), including the urban heat island effect and the potential "cherry picking" of data. Both of these concerns were found to be non-issues. BEST concluded that the urban heat island effect does not contribute significantly to the land temperature rise. In fact, in their new study, they were able to reproduce the warming trend using nothing but rural stations.

BEST Part II doesn't necessarily bring anything new to the science as it currently exists; we've known for decades that the planet is warming and the cause is manmade. But in this case the scientific process played out the way it should: a skeptic of a certain scientific result took on the project, and was open and willing to accept whatever result the science gave him. We now have another batch of results in the group of well-known temperature reconstructions, funded by big-oil-interests, that tells us the planet is warming and that the cause is fossil fuel emissions.

Angela

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


That's IF it goes into the Caribbean, tracks have been trending northward


I wouldn't say 'trending' when we only have had 2 runs of the TC models.

This was just declared an invest at 6z.
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2AM
Quoting yoboi:


when did they issue 99l??
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Quoting yoboi:


when did they issue 99l??

While you were sleeping
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Tropical Tidbit
Link
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John Young salutes the flag while jumping in this picture taken by Charles Duke on the Apollo 16 mission

Images taken by a Nasa spacecraft show that the American flags planted in the Moon's soil by Apollo astronauts are mostly still standing.

The photos from Lunar Reconaissance Orbiter (LRO) show the flags are still casting shadows - except the one planted during the Apollo 11 landing.

This matches Buzz Aldrin's account of the flag being knocked over by engine exhaust as Apollo 11 lifted off.

LRO was designed to produce the most detailed maps yet of the lunar surface.

Each of the Apollo missions planted an American flag in the soil at their landing sites.

Scientists had previously examined photos of the Apollo landing sites for the flags, and had seen what looked like shadows cast by them on the lunar surface. But this was not considered conclusive.

Now, researchers have studied photos of the landing sites taken at different points during the day (and under different illuminations) and have observed shadows circling the points where the flags are thought to be.

Prof Mark Robinson, the chief scientist for the spacecraft's camera instrument, LROC, said in a blog entry: "From the LROC images it is now certain that the American flags are still standing and casting shadows at all of the sites, except Apollo 11."

He added: "The most convincing way to see that the flags are still there, is to view a time series of LROC images taken at different times of day, and watch the shadow circle the flag."

"Personally I was a bit surprised that the flags survived the harsh ultraviolet light and temperatures of the lunar surface, but they did. What they look like is another question (badly faded?)"

LRO began its mission in lunar orbit in September 2009, to identify mineral and other resources on the Moon as well as scout promising landing sites for future missions.
Flag and shadow from Apollo 16 mission This image from the LROC camera shows the Apollo 16 flag - and its shadow -
S
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21186
Quoting Pocamocca:
El Nino is on it's way folks. And yes, that will dramatically thwart this seasons hurricane numbers and significantly increase sheer for the ones that do form.

That's reality, ENSO. Deal with it.
not really weve been 0.5 and 0.6C for almost a month. there is ABSOLUTELY no change and if there is its minor. yes wind shear in the carribean is slightly stronger than it should be but shear in the carribean isnt favorable till about mid to late august
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930. yoboi
Quoting LargoFl:


when did they issue 99l??
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I see we have 99L.Before it get's torn to shreds by shear/lan d interaction in the caribbean we it should at least make it up to a moderate tropical storm..and....

Where is WU admin!!!?1?!


That's IF it goes into the Caribbean, tracks have been trending northward
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I see we have 99L.Before it get's torn to shreds by shear/lan d interaction in the caribbean we it should at least make it up to a moderate tropical storm..and....

Where is WU admin!!!?1?!
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Quoting Pocamocca:
El Nino is on it's way folks. And yes, that will dramatically thwart this seasons hurricane numbers and significantly increase sheer for the ones that do form.

That's realty, ENSO. Deal with it.


Actually the timing and strength of El Nino will be a huge factor in that

We were supposed to be in El Nino by now, but it is weak at best, if it holds off for another month or so, it may not have a large impact on the core part of the season.
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Everyone sssshhhhhhh he's back, if we don't make a sound he might not see us.


Gener has intensified into a typhoon as it continues to threaten Extreme Northern Luzon.



Gener Satellite Image
Image Credit: PAGASA/DOST
According to PAGASA Severe Weather Bulletin Number 10 issued at 5:00pm on Monday, July 30, 2012, Typhoon Gener was located at 260 km east of Basco, Batanes as of 4:00pm. It has a maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 150 kph.

Gener moves north northwest at 7 kph. It is expected to be at 210 km northeast of Basco, Batanes by Tuesday afternoon.

Public storm warning signals are raised on the following areas:

Signal No. 3
Batanes Group of Islands

Signal No. 2
Cagayan
Calayan Group of Islands
Babuyan Group of Islands

Signal No. 1
Isabela
Kalinga
Apayao

Typhoon Gener is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring rains and moderate to strong winds over Luzon and Visayas especially the western section, the bulletin said.
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Quoting theamoeba:
One blog. Dr. Masters & Co. are providing an invaluable service to the community, against all odds including current ownership of his project. There is not enough material in Hurricanes to support a daily blog. Ostriches can move on.
They can certainly put anything weather related that does not fall under the GW or climate change in this blog during off season or quiet times. ie: Extreme Weather, tornadoes, etc. (I'm sure there may be a way to organize it)
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Analysis: Evidence for climate extremes, costs, gets more local

By Environment Correspondent Alister Doyle
OSLO | Fri Jul 27, 2012 7:53pm IST

(Reuters) - Scientists are finding evidence that man-made climate change has raised the risks of individual weather events, such as floods or heatwaves, marking a big step towards pinpointing local costs and ways to adapt to freak conditions.

"We're seeing a great deal of progress in attributing a human fingerprint to the probability of particular events or series of events," said Christopher Field, co-chairman of a U.N. report due in 2014 about the impacts of climate change.

Experts have long blamed a build-up of greenhouse gas emissions for raising worldwide temperatures and causing desertification, floods, droughts, heatwaves, more powerful storms and rising sea levels.

But until recently they have said that naturally very hot, wet, cold, dry or windy weather might explain any single extreme event, like the current drought in the United States or a rare melt of ice in Greenland in July.

But for some extremes, that is now changing.

A study this month, for instance, showed that greenhouse gas emissions had raised the chances of the severe heatwave in Texas in 2011 and unusual heat in Britain in late 2011. Other studies of extremes are under way.

Growing evidence that the dice are loaded towards ever more severe local weather may make it easier for experts to explain global warming to the public, pin down costs and guide investments in everything from roads to flood defenses.

"One of the ironies of climate change is that we have more papers published on the costs of climate change in 2100 than we have published on the costs today. I think that is ridiculous," said Myles Allen, head of climate research at Oxford University's Environmental Change Institute.

"We can't (work out current costs) without being able to make the link to extreme weather," he said. "And once you've worked out how much it costs that raises the question of who is going to pay."

Industrialized nations agree they should take the lead in cutting emissions since they have burnt fossil fuels, which release greenhouse gases, since the Industrial Revolution. But they oppose the idea of liability for damage.

Almost 200 nations have agreed to work out a new deal by the end of 2015 to combat climate change, after repeated setbacks. China, the United States and India are now the top national emitters of greenhouse gases.

Field, Professor of Biology and Environmental Earth System Science at the University of Stanford, said that the goal was to carry out studies of extreme weather events almost immediately after they happen, helping expose the risks.

"Everybody who needs to make decisions about the future - things like building codes, infrastructure planning, insurance - can take advantage of the fact that the risks are changing but we have a lot of influence over what those risks are."

FLOODS

Another report last year indicated that floods 12 years ago in Britain - among the countries most easily studied because of it has long records - were made more likely by warming. And climate shifts also reduced the risks of flooding in 2001.

Previously, the European heatwave of 2003 that killed perhaps 70,000 people was the only extreme where scientists had discerned a human fingerprint. In 2004, they said that global warming had at least doubled the risks of such unusual heat.

The new statistical reviews are difficult because they have to tease out the impact of greenhouse gases from natural variations, such as periodic El Nino warmings of the Pacific, sun-dimming volcanic dust or shifts in the sun's output.

So far, extreme heat is the easiest to link to global warming after a research initiative led by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the British Meteorological Office.

"Heatwaves are easier to attribute than heavy rainfall, and drought is very difficult given evidence for large droughts in the past," said Gabriele Hegerl of the University of Edinburgh.

Scientists often liken climate change to loading dice to get more sixes, or a baseball player on steroids who hits more home runs. That is now going to the local from the global scale.

Field said climate science would always include doubt since weather is chaotic. It is not as certain as physics, where scientists could this month express 99.999 percent certainty they had detected the Higgs boson elementary particle.

"This new attribution science is showing the power of our understanding, but it also illustrates where the limits are," he said.

A report by Field's U.N. group last year showed that more weather extremes that can be linked to greenhouse warming, such as the number of high temperature extremes and the fact that the rising fraction of rainfall falls in downpours.

But scientists warn against going too far in blaming climate change for extreme events.

Unprecedented floods in Thailand last year, for instance, that caused $45 billion in damage according to a World Bank estimate, were caused by people hemming in rivers and raising water levels rather than by climate change, a study showed.

"We have to be a bit cautious about blaming it all on climate change," Peter Stott, head of climate monitoring and attribution at the Met Office's Hadley Centre, said of extremes in 2012.

Taken together, many extremes are a sign of overall change.

"If you look all over the world, we have a great disastrous drought in North America ... you have the same situation in the Mediterranean... If you look at all the extremes together you can say that these are indicators of global warming," said Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengabe, a professor at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

(Additional reporting by Sara Ledwith in London; Editing by Louise Ireland)
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eyewitness.reports.anyone?...heard.of.20 winds.loud.thunder.windwards..will.it.get.a.number ?
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Quoting ENSO2012:


ENOUGH, ENOUGH, AND ENOUGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm fed up with your El Nino infatuation!

On that unfortunate note, good Monday morning, everybody!
i see abosultely no difference from the 26th to 30th. on another note the models predicted a moderate el nino by now and we are borderline warm neutral and weak el nino
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Very impressive warming on 7/30/2012 CPC ENSO update. Look at Nino 3 and Nino 3.4.

ENSO: CPC 7/30/12 Update=Nino 3.4 warms up to 0.6C

Link

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Quoting AussieStorm:


You forgot one. Entering the Caribbean and gets ripped apart by strong shear.


True.........ULL's, sheer and strong westerlies........It's a mine field out there...... :)
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Good morning everyone so I see our Invest is still in 20% anyways the area near NC look a little suspicious may ask what it is?
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Quoting muddertracker:


Southern California to TX and over to FL will have a wet winter ahead.
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Quoting Articuno:

Wow. Look at the intensity model SHIPS has it up to 75 knots in 120 hours
Interesting...and recently updated too.
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Quoting bluheelrtx:
The previous blog was about severe weather outbreaks, as are many of the off season and slow period blogs. Do you feel those should also have a separate blog or do you think that they could cooexist with one or the other of your suggestions?
They could probably co-exist with this one (IMO) during the off season, and no doubt if extreme weather happens during Hurricane season, people will talk about it here. Or alternatively, a separate blog for just "Extreme Weather" could be created...good idea, bluheel.
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A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH A 1018
MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W TO GULF W COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE THROUGH THU AND W OF
AREA FRI.
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Quoting LargoFl:
..in EL-NINO years..Florida gets colder winters they say



Expect a very wet/cool fall, winter, and spring here in FL. Also a high risk for tornadoes due to the jet stream diving in across the Gulf. Some El-Nino's can bring more rain during the winter months than what we would normally get during the rainy season.

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Quoting Waltanater:
If Jeff Masters, or his assistant, is reading this, I would like to make a request to better the quality of discussions:

Create two blogs. One for "Climate Change and Global Warming" and the other for "Hurricanes and Tropical Weather."

I always see bloggers bicker about the purpose of this blog. Separating topics may help...just a thought.
I've come to the conclusion that Dr. Masters is deeply passionate about and knowledgeable in both climate change and tropical weather, and he's extremely skillful in communicating about both in an easy to understand but thorough way. That's why his blog continues to be extremely popular--and to vastly more people than the handful of regulars on this forum who may "bicker about its purpose". He's regularly quoted around the internet, on TV, in newspapers, and magazines, and by scientists and laypeople alike. I won't pretend to speak for him, but I can't see him reorganizing the media strategy he's developed just so a relatively small number of quarrelsome regulars on this forum are catered to. (And let's be honest: human nature dictates that if folks here didn't have CC/GW to complain about, they'd find something else.)

My vote: leave it as it is.
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One blog. Dr. Masters & Co. are providing an invaluable service to the community, against all odds including current ownership of his project. There is not enough material in Hurricanes to support a daily blog. Ostriches can move on.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
El-Nino continues to build in with each passing day. Looking more and more that a strong El-nino is coming by the end of this year.

7/30


7/26


I hope not, It would mean a very hot low humidity summer here which would also mean very bad fire season.
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Quoting Waltanater:
If Jeff Masters, or his assistant, is reading this, I would like to make a request to better the quality of discussions:

Create two blogs. One for "Climate Change and Global Warming" and the other for "Hurricanes and Tropical Weather."

I always see bloggers bicker about the purpose of this blog. Separating topics may help...just a thought.


I have been asking for that for I dont know how long..it wouldnt be anyone in the GW blog if they split it up..hence Rood's blog lack activity..a lot more traffic in here to spread the message..it aint happening unfortunately
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Morning All. "Ernesto Part Deux"

I can't remember the last time seeing a storm in it's formative stages that wasn't under 20kts of shear. 99L has that "popcorn" look.

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Good Morning to All From America's Left Coast.
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899. Jax82


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The most notable change over the last few days is the warming across Nino 3.4 and Nino 4 regions as now all regions are in the positive.

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896. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Good morning! I see we have 99L.


yep. since 2am
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
El-Nino continues to build in with each passing day. Looking more and more that a strong El-nino is coming by the end of this year.

7/30


7/26

Sounds great! El Nino = More Rain for Texas!
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
El-Nino continues to build in with each passing day. Looking more and more that a strong El-nino is coming by the end of this year.

7/30


7/26
..in EL-NINO years..Florida gets colder winters they say
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Here is an A-G choice on possible tracks for the CV storms based on observed climatology during the peak:

A. Southern Track below the Greater Antilles on the way to Central America due to strong ridging in the Caribbean;

B. Medium-Southern track below the Greater Antilles with entry into the Gulf of Mexico via Western Cuba or the Yucatan Channel;

C. More Central Track towards PR/Hispanola/Cuba with those Islands taking the "hit" for the US and possible dissipation after interaction with those Islands;

D. More Northern Track just clipping PR on the way towards the Bahamas and Florida;

E. Medium Northern track off the Coast of the Eastern Seaboard and impacting the Carolinas and up the Eastern Coast;

F: Northern trajectory between the US and Bermuda with possible threats to Bermuda;

G. Classic fish trajectories missing Bermuda in the Central Atlantic;

All of these general tracks are of course subject to the timing of Trofs, ENSO cycle, and short term variability in the steering currents and ridges which is where the models come in in trying to sort all these factors out for any particular storm.

As noted by Dr. M, it is not possible to determine exactly how all these pieces will fall together more than 10 days out for any given storm.


You forgot one. Entering the Caribbean and gets ripped apart by strong shear.
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Quoting Waltanater:
Looks like it is marginally there. Could break up.
..still has to make it thru that dry air and all that dust
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El-Nino continues to build in with each passing day. Looking more and more that a strong El-nino is coming by the end of this year.

7/30


7/26
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Quoting superpete:



LATEST STEERING


westward ho!
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Quoting Pocamocca:

Precisely.
Looks like it is marginally there. Could break up.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.