Oil industry-funded "BEST" study finds global warming is real, manmade

By: Angela Fritz , 12:21 AM GMT on July 30, 2012

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The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) group is in the news again, surprising climate change skeptics with results from a new study that shows the earth has warmed 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, and that "essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases." Dr. Richard Muller, who heads the BEST team, now considers himself a "converted skeptic," which he wrote about in a New York Times op-ed on Saturday:

"Call me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I'm now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause."

Not only is the lead scientist of the project a former climate change skeptic, BEST itself is funded by the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, an organization that is rooted deep in the oil industry and the manufactured doubt industry. Two years ago a report found that the Koch brothers outspent Exxon Mobile in science disinformation at a whopping $48.5 million since 1997. Despite the special interest of their funders, BEST has made it clear, both on their website and in the results they've come to, that funding sources will not play a role in the results of their research, and that they "will be presented with full transparency."

Figure 1. The BEST surface temperature reconstruction (black) with a 95% confidence interval (grey). The overlying curve (red) is a curve fit to the temperature reconstruction based on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and volcanic activity.

Muller's research comes to essentially the same conclusion as similar well-known studies on the topic of global temperature rise. It attempts to address the question of attribution—how much has the globe warmed, and what is to blame? They found that solar activity relates very little to the fluctuations in temperature over the past 250 years, and that the warming is "almost entirely" due to greenhouse gas emissions, combined with some variability from volcanic eruptions. It's important to note that while Muller and his team found warming of 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, the IPCC did not find quite that much warming in their AR4 assessment.

BEST was in the news in October when they released results from their first independent study of surface temperature, which set out to address some common skeptic concerns about previous temperature reconstructions (e.g. NASA, NOAA, and HadCRU), including the urban heat island effect and the potential "cherry picking" of data. Both of these concerns were found to be non-issues. BEST concluded that the urban heat island effect does not contribute significantly to the land temperature rise. In fact, in their new study, they were able to reproduce the warming trend using nothing but rural stations.

BEST Part II doesn't necessarily bring anything new to the science as it currently exists; we've known for decades that the planet is warming and the cause is manmade. But in this case the scientific process played out the way it should: a skeptic of a certain scientific result took on the project, and was open and willing to accept whatever result the science gave him. We now have another batch of results in the group of well-known temperature reconstructions, funded by big-oil-interests, that tells us the planet is warming and that the cause is fossil fuel emissions.

Angela

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WOW!! did you see this?!?!?
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4711
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Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4711
Quoting hydrus:
You are right Kori, but this is a new blog entry, lets not pollute it with b.s. Please..


My apologies.
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TW 1 is a fighter. Convection starting to fire up.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

If you want to talk about the tropics so bad make your own blog on them... I'm not saying I wouldn't have liked to hear Angela or Dr. Jeff's input on the potential storm but last time I checked this is their blog and they can write whatever they want.


And they are very consistent in their GW posts... Here are some of them for this month...


Oil industry-funded "BEST" study finds global warming is real, manmade

Greenland experiences melting over 97% of its area in mid-July

June 2012: Earth's 4th warmest June; heavy rains in Beijing kill 37

Historic 2012 U.S. drought continues to expand and intensify

Record warmth at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Morocco hits 121F (49.6C): a national all-time heat record

Historic 2012 U.S. drought: 6th greatest on record

Death Valley records a low of 107F (41.7C): a world record

Russian wildfire smoke reaches Canada, U.S.; Death Valley hits 128F

Extreme events of 2011: climate change a major factor in some, but not all

Heat wave breaks more all-time records in Midwest; relief coming Sunday

Chicago and Milwaukee hit 103; relief coming by Sunday

Borderline El Nino conditions arrive; Chicago, Detroit, and Milwaukee hit 102

The June 2012 U.S. heat wave: one of the greatest in recorded history

Violent thunderstorms kill 3 in North Carolina; extreme heat continues in Southeast
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't think anyone cares if you are an internet tough guy. Could you say those same things to any of us face to face?
You are right Kori, but this is a new blog entry, lets not pollute it with b.s. Please..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21492
Quoting stormchaser19:


NHC lately doesn't like put yellow circle , so the first advisory will be orange circle.sounds funny but this is the consistency of NHC this year they are very conservative

Alberto, Beryl, Chris, and Debby all started with yellow circles. The NHC only starts with an orange season in the pre-season in a Special TWO.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I could. :D


And I would do the same. ;)
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Since we are on the topic of global warming, i myself don't believe the hype.... the earth has warmed many times in its life, millions of years of heating and cooling. It's a process that is a part of why we even exist. If the earth never warmed after the ice age we would never exist. Get use to it.....
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thank You Ms. Fritz. Only makes sense. Fossil fuels (coal, oil, etc) are buried deep underground for a reason; Mother Earth already recycled these elements over millions of years. Now in the past 100 years, Man has unearthed it and reintroduced it back into the atmosphere at alarming "un-natural" rates in a very short time span during industrialization....Something's Gotta Give.


gonna need activated charcoal:

I'm gonna puke again!
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NHC lately doesn't like put yellow circle , so the first advisory will be orange circle.sounds funny but this is the consistency of NHC this year they are very conservative
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Experts think too early for CV. They will be singing different toon in 48 hours.
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Ok so all of the GFS ENSEMBLE have a TD or TS by 96HR!!!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4711
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't think anyone cares if you are an internet tough guy. Could you say those same things to any of us face to face?

I could. :D
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Quoting mcluvincane:


Don't start none won't be none homes


I don't think anyone cares if you are an internet tough guy. Could you say those same things to any of us face to face?
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Saola expected to intensify significantly. Tropical storm 10w (Saola) warning nr 008
02 active tropical cyclones in northwestpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
wind radii valid over open water only
---
warning position:
291800z --- near 19.3n 124.8e
movement past six hours - 320 degrees at 08 kts
position accurate to within 060 nm
position based on center located by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 055 kt, gusts 070 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 050 kt winds - 035 nm northeast quadrant
035 nm southeast quadrant
035 nm southwest quadrant
035 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 065 nm northeast quadrant
055 nm southeast quadrant
055 nm southwest quadrant
065 nm northwest quadrant
repeat posit: 19.3n 124.8e
---
forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
300600z --- 20.2n 124.2e
Max sustained winds - 060 kt, gusts 075 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 050 kt winds - 025 nm northeast quadrant
025 nm southeast quadrant
025 nm southwest quadrant
025 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 075 nm northeast quadrant
070 nm southeast quadrant
070 nm southwest quadrant
075 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 24 hr posit: 330 deg/ 05 kts
---
24 hrs, valid at:
301800z --- 21.0n 123.7e
Max sustained winds - 070 kt, gusts 085 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 064 kt winds - 025 nm northeast quadrant
025 nm southeast quadrant
020 nm southwest quadrant
025 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 045 nm northeast quadrant
040 nm southeast quadrant
040 nm southwest quadrant
045 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 115 nm northeast quadrant
105 nm southeast quadrant
095 nm southwest quadrant
110 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 36 hr posit: 340 deg/ 05 kts
---
36 hrs, valid at:
310600z --- 21.9n 123.3e
Max sustained winds - 080 kt, gusts 100 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 064 kt winds - 025 nm northeast quadrant
025 nm southeast quadrant
025 nm southwest quadrant
025 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 050 nm northeast quadrant
050 nm southeast quadrant
045 nm southwest quadrant
050 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 120 nm northeast quadrant
115 nm southeast quadrant
110 nm southwest quadrant
115 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 48 hr posit: 345 deg/ 05 kts
---
extended outlook:
48 hrs, valid at:
311800z --- 22.8n 123.0e
Max sustained winds - 090 kt, gusts 110 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 064 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant
030 nm southeast quadrant
030 nm southwest quadrant
030 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 055 nm northeast quadrant
055 nm southeast quadrant
055 nm southwest quadrant
055 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 135 nm northeast quadrant
130 nm southeast quadrant
125 nm southwest quadrant
135 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 72 hr posit: 340 deg/ 05 kts
---
72 hrs, valid at:
011800z --- 24.5n 122.3e
Max sustained winds - 100 kt, gusts 125 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 064 kt winds - 040 nm northeast quadrant
040 nm southeast quadrant
040 nm southwest quadrant
040 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 065 nm northeast quadrant
065 nm southeast quadrant
065 nm southwest quadrant
065 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 140 nm northeast quadrant
135 nm southeast quadrant
130 nm southwest quadrant
135 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 96 hr posit: 330 deg/ 06 kts

Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/wp201210.publ ic.html#5hgOrB7F7vkUD3JV.99
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21492
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

If you want to talk about the tropics so bad make your own blog on them... I'm not saying I wouldn't have liked to hear Angela or Dr. Jeff's input on the potential storm but last time I checked this is their blog and they can write whatever they want.


And I'm sure there'll be a post soon on tropical weather.

I have to say, living in Australia, I'm very jealous of all the resources you guys have for watching the weather. Being able to pull up maps showing moisture, shear, vorticity, etc is pretty cool, not to mention seriously educational!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XX/XX/XX


You can see a spin there.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14408
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SAOLA (1209)
9:00 AM JST July 30 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Saola (980 hPa) located at 19.5N 125.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 21.3N 124.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - South of Ishigaki Island
48 HRS: 22.8N 124.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 24.9N 122.9E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - East China Sea
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

If you want to talk about the tropics so bad make your own blog on them... I'm not saying I wouldn't have liked to hear Angela or Dr. Jeff's input on the potential storm but last time I checked this is their blog and they can write whatever they want.
Very true
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

If you want to talk about the tropics so bad make your own blog on them... I'm not saying I wouldn't have liked to hear Angela or Dr. Jeff's input on the potential storm but last time I checked this is their blog and they can write whatever they want.
Yes, they can post on what they want and whatever they post about then we can post anything relevant to the post or about the tropics.
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XX/XX/XX
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Quoting Svfortuna:
I don't want to dispute the fact that the world is slowly heating, but is there absolute empirical evidence that human beings are causing it - or is it a earth cycle which has been repeated countless times in the history of the earth.


That's a good question, and the answer is:
Yes, there is.

We know roughly how much fossil fuels humans have dug/drilled up and burned. The amount of extra CO2 accumulated in the atmosphere over the past few hundred years is *less* that what we've emitted, so nature is soaking some up.

We also know that atmospheric Oxygen concentration has dropped over the past few hundred years, in direct proportion to the amount of fossil fuels burned.

We know that the new carbon is not from plants, because it has extremely low radio-carbon levels, meaning it's been buried for a very long time. We also know that it *once* came from plants, because of the Carbon-12/13 ratio (plants preferentially take up Carbon-12, and the Carbon-13 ratio in the atmosphere has been dropping lately).

We know that the warming is caused by this extra CO2, because we can actually measure it - changes in the amount of heat escaping from the earth can be measured by high-altitude aircraft and satellites, and both show a decrease. We can also measure the heat coming back down from the atmosphere in CO2 bands, and it's increasing.

We also know a great deal about what other forces drive climate, and nearly every single one of them points to cooling, not warming.

TL;DR: We know it's us, because we've increased CO2 in the atmosphere, and we know of no natural phenomenon that can both exactly counter-act the known warming properties of CO2, while simultaneously causing a warming that's proportional to the amount of CO2 emitted.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

If you want to talk about the tropics so bad make your own blog on them... I'm not saying I wouldn't have liked to hear Angela or Dr. Jeff's input on the potential storm but last time I checked this is their blog and they can write whatever they want.



am %100 with you on that even no i dont like GW its there blog and they can talk about what evere they want
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Quoting mcluvincane:



Totally agree, we finally get some model action and everything shifts to GW crap

If you want to talk about the tropics so bad make your own blog on them... I'm not saying I wouldn't have liked to hear Angela or Dr. Jeff's input on the potential storm but last time I checked this is their blog and they can write whatever they want.
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Carbon trading coming to Shanghai

07-27-2012 10:52 BJT The platform will be based at the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange. The trials will involve 200 firms in 16 industries, such as steel, petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and power and six non-industrial fields, such as airlines, ports, airports and hotels.

Scientists say these kinds of companies are responsible for approximately 110 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions a year, or nearly half of the city’s annual emissions.

Zheng Dawei, head of Investment Banking Dept.,SPD Bank, said, "Carbon emissions trading treats carbon credits as merchandise that can be bought and sold. The companies will first be given initial quotas for carbon emissions for free, by Shanghai’s NDRC. The quotas are based on their historical emissions data. Any surplus or shortage of credits can be adjusted through transactions in the carbon credit market. "

Zheng says it’s imperative for China to establish a national carbon emissions trading market and then to join international efforts. China’s involvement in the international carbon market now is mostly through what’s known as the CDM, or Clean Development Mechanism. The way it works is that developed countries get a carbon reduction credit by investing in clean energy projects. But the CDM faces an uncertain future.

Zheng said, "The Kyoto Protocol, the international treaty to combat climate change, gave birth to the CDM. However, the first phase of the protocol is due to expire at the end of this year. I think that’s also one of the reasons why China has to start its own carbon market next year. "

Beyond Shanghai, six other cities and provinces, Beijing, Tianjin, Shenzhen, Chongqing, and Guangdong and Hubei Provinces will be involved in the pilot project. And if all goes well, a nationwide system is scheduled to be in place by 2015. Zheng says that’s expected to help the national goal of a 17 percent reduction in carbon intensity by 2015.
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Quoting mcluvincane:



Totally agree, we finally get some model action and everything shifts to GW crap

00z gfs should be interesting later tonight, if it shows development then focus will shift to the tropics if the conversation goes to GW.
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I afraid this post will creates MORE politics/GW debate madness :\ but thanks anyway, Angela :)
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Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14408
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I think Soala is sucking the life out of Damrey

That's part of it, could still try to wrap more convection but Saola is taking over.
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Both waves have nice spins to them.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Wow, convection has really decreased on Damrey.


I think Soala is sucking the life out of Damrey
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Saola is looking good.
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Wow, convection has really decreased on Damrey.
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Central Africa..
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Good Evening Everybody from America's Left Coast.
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strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane cat 1
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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