Oil industry-funded "BEST" study finds global warming is real, manmade

By: Angela Fritz , 12:21 AM GMT on July 30, 2012

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The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) group is in the news again, surprising climate change skeptics with results from a new study that shows the earth has warmed 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, and that "essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases." Dr. Richard Muller, who heads the BEST team, now considers himself a "converted skeptic," which he wrote about in a New York Times op-ed on Saturday:

"Call me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I'm now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause."

Not only is the lead scientist of the project a former climate change skeptic, BEST itself is funded by the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, an organization that is rooted deep in the oil industry and the manufactured doubt industry. Two years ago a report found that the Koch brothers outspent Exxon Mobile in science disinformation at a whopping $48.5 million since 1997. Despite the special interest of their funders, BEST has made it clear, both on their website and in the results they've come to, that funding sources will not play a role in the results of their research, and that they "will be presented with full transparency."

Figure 1. The BEST surface temperature reconstruction (black) with a 95% confidence interval (grey). The overlying curve (red) is a curve fit to the temperature reconstruction based on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and volcanic activity.

Muller's research comes to essentially the same conclusion as similar well-known studies on the topic of global temperature rise. It attempts to address the question of attribution—how much has the globe warmed, and what is to blame? They found that solar activity relates very little to the fluctuations in temperature over the past 250 years, and that the warming is "almost entirely" due to greenhouse gas emissions, combined with some variability from volcanic eruptions. It's important to note that while Muller and his team found warming of 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, the IPCC did not find quite that much warming in their AR4 assessment.

BEST was in the news in October when they released results from their first independent study of surface temperature, which set out to address some common skeptic concerns about previous temperature reconstructions (e.g. NASA, NOAA, and HadCRU), including the urban heat island effect and the potential "cherry picking" of data. Both of these concerns were found to be non-issues. BEST concluded that the urban heat island effect does not contribute significantly to the land temperature rise. In fact, in their new study, they were able to reproduce the warming trend using nothing but rural stations.

BEST Part II doesn't necessarily bring anything new to the science as it currently exists; we've known for decades that the planet is warming and the cause is manmade. But in this case the scientific process played out the way it should: a skeptic of a certain scientific result took on the project, and was open and willing to accept whatever result the science gave him. We now have another batch of results in the group of well-known temperature reconstructions, funded by big-oil-interests, that tells us the planet is warming and that the cause is fossil fuel emissions.

Angela

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Quoting Levi32:


If you actually watch the video you will see that I said the track depends on how strong the system becomes during the next 5 days, and I have not actually picked a specific scenario yet. It would be unwise to do so at this point.


Hello Levi

Assuming a southerly path would a strong ts or cat 1 still suffer the same fate in the graveyard or could it possibly survive a trip to the gulf ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ENSO2012:
Sadly, Levi is already out to lunch; he thinks that he'll eventually head out to sea, LOL.

I hope he changes his mind about this. Or else he'll be wrong with Ernesto, as he was wrong with Debby back in late June.

This bad bad is headed towards the Caribbean, not north of it.


You are so disrespectful to people who do not have the same opinions as you do, then you get all offended when people call you what you are, a troll.

Quit the crap, actually discuss things with people instead of attacking and MAYBE you will start to gain some respect back.

Just a word of advice
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
Hey NC..you got a Tornado Warning!!......................................... ....BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1043 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MAINLAND DARE COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
CENTRAL OUTER BANKS DARE COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 1115 AM EDT

* AT 1037 AM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO OVER
BODIE ISLAND LIGHTHOUSE...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BODIE ISLAND LIGHTHOUSE...
WANCHESE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS
AVAILABLE LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
DEBRIS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 0 0...8 8 9...6 8 8 9 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.



LAT...LON 3576 7559 3578 7558 3579 7555 3580 7560
3584 7559 3583 7561 3580 7562 3582 7568
3580 7573 3584 7567 3586 7567 3594 7573
3595 7572 3594 7568 3590 7563 3592 7562
3590 7558 3577 7552
TIME...MOT...LOC 1443Z 105DEG 9KT 3581 7554
TTT
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
WU admin where are you!!??!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We saw phosphate fertilizer prices rise 350% from 2003 to 2008, and in 2008 food riots broke out in 40 countries.

I don't think that's a coincidence.

And I think American food shortages are not a matter of "if," but a matter of when.

To think we couldn't experience that kind of crisis would be foolish.

Especially when food prices will soar in the future.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
981. yoboi
Quoting RitaEvac:
Right now the cycle of bringing food from the farm to the market takes up 2/3rds of the United States' domestic oil production.

The average American's food intake for the year requires 400 gallons of oil to bring it to the kitchen table.

It takes a pound of diesel to make a pound of fertilizer.

So if you've got a big family, you are using a lot of oil just to eat.

We are going to need unprecedented innovation in how, and where, we grow food to keep up with the rising numbers in our population.

We're going to need big technological leaps in plowing, fertilizer, forest management...you name it.

But where are they?

And will they appear in time to avoid a severe crisis?



prob not in time....
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CMC and GFS are actually starting to show some decent consistency, as both of them have been showing something for the last 5 model runs or so.
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Quoting ENSO2012:
Sadly, Levi is already out to lunch; he thinks that he'll eventually head out to sea, LOL.

I hope he changes his mind about this. Or else he'll be wrong with Ernesto, as he was wrong with Debby back in late June.

This bad bad is headed towards the Caribbean, not north of it.
I know that is your opinion but you had been until now the most disrespectful blogger I had met.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey NC..you got a Tornado Warning!!......................................... ....BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1043 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MAINLAND DARE COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
CENTRAL OUTER BANKS DARE COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 1115 AM EDT

* AT 1037 AM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO OVER
BODIE ISLAND LIGHTHOUSE...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BODIE ISLAND LIGHTHOUSE...
WANCHESE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS
AVAILABLE LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
DEBRIS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 0 0...8 8 9...6 8 8 9 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.



LAT...LON 3576 7559 3578 7558 3579 7555 3580 7560
3584 7559 3583 7561 3580 7562 3582 7568
3580 7573 3584 7567 3586 7567 3594 7573
3595 7572 3594 7568 3590 7563 3592 7562
3590 7558 3577 7552
TIME...MOT...LOC 1443Z 105DEG 9KT 3581 7554
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Quoting ENSO2012:
Sadly, Levi is already out to lunch; he thinks that he'll eventually head out to sea, LOL.

I hope he changes his mind about this. Or else he'll be wrong with Ernesto, as he was wrong with Debby back in late June.

This bad bad is headed towards the Caribbean, not north of it.


If you actually watch the video you will see that I said the track depends on how strong the system becomes during the next 5 days, and I have not actually picked a specific scenario yet. It would be unwise to do so at this point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Right now the cycle of bringing food from the farm to the market takes up 2/3rds of the United States' domestic oil production.

The average American's food intake for the year requires 400 gallons of oil to bring it to the kitchen table.

It takes a pound of diesel to make a pound of fertilizer.

So if you've got a big family, you are using a lot of oil just to eat.

We are going to need unprecedented innovation in how, and where, we grow food to keep up with the rising numbers in our population.

We're going to need big technological leaps in plowing, fertilizer, forest management...you name it.

But where are they?

And will they appear in time to avoid a severe crisis?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Quoting Waltanater:
If Jeff Masters, or his assistant, is reading this, I would like to make a request to better the quality of discussions:

Create two blogs. One for "Climate Change and Global Warming" and the other for "Hurricanes and Tropical Weather."

I always see bloggers bicker about the purpose of this blog. Separating topics may help...just a thought.


First, the two topics are directly linked.

Second, no need to create blogs that will have days or weeks of no activity, i.e. content, when you can have both in the same blog and provide more opportunities for posts.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


That's IF it goes into the Caribbean, tracks have been trending northward


How far north might this system go?
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Quoting ENSO2012:


With a positive SOI, I don't THINK so.


Are you familiar with Kelvin Waves if not then keep quiet.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Quoting hydrus:
I have never understood the objections about having discussions on global warming. If warm ocean waters spawn tropical cyclones, then it is a relevant topic.
Agreed. For those who are clamoring for a non-GW discussion space, create your own blog. It's pretty simple to do in this space or using Blogger etc.

Global Warming has a direct effect on severe weather, so it's a perfectly fine topic for a severe weather blog.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Interesting that Nino 1+2 close to SouthAmerica cooled a tad.



It did cool because the Kelvin Wave which I just posted is moving across the Nino regions. That is why we are seeing warming now across the rest of the Nino regions. Once this Kelvin Wave moves across the Pacific then watch for a moderate to strong El-Nino build in pretty quick probably around October.
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And it shows you that we're well on our way to a tipping point here.

More people put a larger drain on our energy needs.

They require more food, more money, more everything.

If you narrow the focus to just America over the last 100 years, you'll see that our food consumption patterns are growing even faster.

Meaning we are eating more food, per person, while our population explodes, and our farmland disappears.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
John Young salutes the flag while jumping in this picture taken by Charles Duke on the Apollo 16 mission

Images taken by a Nasa spacecraft show that the American flags planted in the Moon's soil by Apollo astronauts are mostly still standing.

The photos from Lunar Reconaissance Orbiter (LRO) show the flags are still casting shadows - except the one planted during the Apollo 11 landing.

This matches Buzz Aldrin's account of the flag being knocked over by engine exhaust as Apollo 11 lifted off.

LRO was designed to produce the most detailed maps yet of the lunar surface.

Each of the Apollo missions planted an American flag in the soil at their landing sites.

Scientists had previously examined photos of the Apollo landing sites for the flags, and had seen what looked like shadows cast by them on the lunar surface. But this was not considered conclusive.

Now, researchers have studied photos of the landing sites taken at different points during the day (and under different illuminations) and have observed shadows circling the points where the flags are thought to be.

Prof Mark Robinson, the chief scientist for the spacecraft's camera instrument, LROC, said in a blog entry: "From the LROC images it is now certain that the American flags are still standing and casting shadows at all of the sites, except Apollo 11."

He added: "The most convincing way to see that the flags are still there, is to view a time series of LROC images taken at different times of day, and watch the shadow circle the flag."

"Personally I was a bit surprised that the flags survived the harsh ultraviolet light and temperatures of the lunar surface, but they did. What they look like is another question (badly faded?)"

LRO began its mission in lunar orbit in September 2009, to identify mineral and other resources on the Moon as well as scout promising landing sites for future missions.
Flag and shadow from Apollo 16 mission This image from the LROC camera shows the Apollo 16 flag - and its shadow -
S
Good morning all. When I heard this over the radio this morning, the announcer stated that "The flags are still there!" So I was wondering, were they expecting them to be gone? If so, who took them! Playing right into the UFO coverup controversy LOL!
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.............................heads up Stormtracker..that nasty line is headed your way
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Quoting Pocamocca:

If you had been here the past fews days, you would have seen my reasoning as I have posted it over over and over again. Pay attention next time.
Yes mam.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19533
Quoting Neapolitan:
I've come to the conclusion that Dr. Masters is deeply passionate about and knowledgeable in both climate change and tropical weather, and he's extremely skillful in communicating about both in an easy to understand but thorough way. That's why his blog continues to be extremely popular--and to vastly more people than the handful of regulars on this forum who may "bicker about its purpose". He's regularly quoted around the internet, on TV, in newspapers, and magazines, and by scientists and laypeople alike. I won't pretend to speak for him, but I can't see him reorganizing the media strategy he's developed just so a relatively small number of quarrelsome regulars on this forum are catered to. (And let's be honest: human nature dictates that if folks here didn't have CC/GW to complain about, they'd find something else.)

My vote: leave it as it is.
I have never understood the objections about having discussions on global warming. If warm ocean waters spawn tropical cyclones, then it is a relevant topic.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19533
Over the last 25 years alone, America has converted over 41 million acres of land into condos, strip malls, and other developments.

That's the equivalent of removing Illinois and New Jersey from the map.


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..............................kind of early in the morning for these nasty kind of storms here huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Good morning thx for all you do Levi!:)
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, July 30th, with Video
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4207
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Yes!.U.S.A in second!...Okay back to weather...
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Interesting that Nino 1+2 close to SouthAmerica cooled a tad.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13298
..speaking of God send,,..


LoL

: )
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"switching the lights on and off"..

this is what my kindergarten teacher would do when the class got out of hand..I feel its approriate right now for some of yall..please stop quoting the troublemakers..move on!
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Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, July 30th, with Video
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nice shower at my house right now, coming in off the gulf, this might cool it off here for a lil while
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Quoting stormhank:
the SOI has been climbing past few days..Ive read that means EL Nino formation could be slower to develop



True to a degree but the warming in Nino 3.4 and Nino 3 have warmed because of the Kelvin Wave moving across these locations.

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.................................west coast sea breeze storms are starting early folks..keep your eyes open central florida, the storms are headed east today
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Quoting StormTracker2K:



Expect a very wet/cool fall, winter, and spring here in FL. Also a high risk for tornadoes due to the jet stream diving in across the Gulf. Some El-Nino's can bring more rain during the winter months than what we would normally get during the rainy season.

Up to 3 times as much.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19533
Quoting Pocamocca:
El Nino is on it's way folks. And yes, that will dramatically thwart this seasons hurricane numbers and significantly increase sheer for the ones that do form.

That's reality, ENSO. Deal with it.
I deal with reality every day. Why not explain with some data why you are so sure that El-Nino will have an effect on the number of storms this year. I would bet those of us still trying to put our lives back together from previous storms would listen very carefully.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19533
Quoting yoboi:


when did they issue 99l??
..2am
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Quoting Hurricanes101:


That's IF it goes into the Caribbean, tracks have been trending northward
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941. yoboi
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
2AM


thanks...looks like it might hold together for a few days...
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the SOI has been climbing past few days..Ive read that means EL Nino formation could be slower to develop
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.