Oil industry-funded "BEST" study finds global warming is real, manmade

By: Angela Fritz , 12:21 AM GMT on July 30, 2012

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The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) group is in the news again, surprising climate change skeptics with results from a new study that shows the earth has warmed 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, and that "essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases." Dr. Richard Muller, who heads the BEST team, now considers himself a "converted skeptic," which he wrote about in a New York Times op-ed on Saturday:

"Call me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I'm now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause."

Not only is the lead scientist of the project a former climate change skeptic, BEST itself is funded by the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, an organization that is rooted deep in the oil industry and the manufactured doubt industry. Two years ago a report found that the Koch brothers outspent Exxon Mobile in science disinformation at a whopping $48.5 million since 1997. Despite the special interest of their funders, BEST has made it clear, both on their website and in the results they've come to, that funding sources will not play a role in the results of their research, and that they "will be presented with full transparency."

Figure 1. The BEST surface temperature reconstruction (black) with a 95% confidence interval (grey). The overlying curve (red) is a curve fit to the temperature reconstruction based on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and volcanic activity.

Muller's research comes to essentially the same conclusion as similar well-known studies on the topic of global temperature rise. It attempts to address the question of attribution—how much has the globe warmed, and what is to blame? They found that solar activity relates very little to the fluctuations in temperature over the past 250 years, and that the warming is "almost entirely" due to greenhouse gas emissions, combined with some variability from volcanic eruptions. It's important to note that while Muller and his team found warming of 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, the IPCC did not find quite that much warming in their AR4 assessment.

BEST was in the news in October when they released results from their first independent study of surface temperature, which set out to address some common skeptic concerns about previous temperature reconstructions (e.g. NASA, NOAA, and HadCRU), including the urban heat island effect and the potential "cherry picking" of data. Both of these concerns were found to be non-issues. BEST concluded that the urban heat island effect does not contribute significantly to the land temperature rise. In fact, in their new study, they were able to reproduce the warming trend using nothing but rural stations.

BEST Part II doesn't necessarily bring anything new to the science as it currently exists; we've known for decades that the planet is warming and the cause is manmade. But in this case the scientific process played out the way it should: a skeptic of a certain scientific result took on the project, and was open and willing to accept whatever result the science gave him. We now have another batch of results in the group of well-known temperature reconstructions, funded by big-oil-interests, that tells us the planet is warming and that the cause is fossil fuel emissions.

Angela

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Floater from Ramsdis. It may not look solid to develop now but has a good spin.

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Quoting ENSO2012:


Thank you; what a careless mistake of moi; you see? I commit them as well.

Why are you using semicolons incorrectly? Those should be commas.
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Quoting ENSO2012:


Thank you; what a careless mistake of moi; you see? I commit them as well.


I just felt like zinging you because you did the same to me. :P
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Getting near... My cistern is awaiting....

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Quoting reedzone:
18Z shows an early similar presentation from the last Ernesto.. Quite interesting.


Woow...if the ernesto of 2012 take the same path will be amazing

Hurricane Ernesto (2006)
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Quoting KoritheMan:


You didn't take any pictures? Dude, why? That would be like going to the NHC and failing to take a picture with Rick Knabb.


I forgot to bring a camera.
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Quoting ENSO2012:


You're own?


Your own.
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Quoting Civicane49:


Unfortunately, I didn't take any pictures.

Sorry.


You didn't take any pictures? Dude, why? That would be like going to the NHC and failing to take a picture with Rick Knabb.
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So that's the wave everyone is watching?.I thought it was the one still at the African coast.
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178. JRRP
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tonight's TWO:



TA13,the circle has to be a little bit north of that one with center of it at 9N-32W.
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Quoting ENSO2012:


You're own?

Yes, my own.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
There is absolute evidence we are contributing. There isn't evidence that we are 100% responsible for the warming.

We know we are contributing to the warming, the question is how much.


How much did Leif Erikson and his fellow Earth com padres contribute to GW during the last warm period?
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Nice political opinion article, Angela.
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18Z shows an early similar presentation from the last Ernesto.. Quite interesting.
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Quoting Civicane49:


I don't expect development of this disturbance in the central Pacific.


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Quoting KoritheMan:


If you have pictures, I would very much enjoy seeing them whenever you have the time.


Unfortunately, I didn't take any pictures.

Sorry.
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Tonight's TWO:

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Quoting Civicane49:


Well, I once was toured in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center during last year. The CPHC is combined with the NWS Honolulu. I enjoyed the tour.


If you have pictures, I would very much enjoy seeing them whenever you have the time.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
CV49, seeing as you live in Honolulu, have you ever had a facility tour of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center?


Well, I once was toured in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center during last year. The CPHC is combined with the NWS Honolulu. I enjoyed the tour.
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Quoting ENSO2012:


Comma after the word dick.


Good eye. I'll fix it since bad grammar irritates me.
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Quoting flsky:

Read, read, read. Learn, learn, learn.


Believe nothing that you hear and half of what you read...
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Then there's always that one relative that puts unorthodox ingredients in their food. "Why are there pineapple chunks in my spaghetti?" "Oh that? It's for added flavor. Isn't it great?" "No it's not, but since I'm not a dick I'm keeping my opinions to myself."
Lol.The food was pretty good.All though I did see some string beans mixed up with my Mac&Cheese.
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So what's the forecast for that low pressure due to exist on the 10th? Where will it be?

I'm getting more and more concerned with each passing day.
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Quoting pcola57:


Neither does the CPHC out of Hawaii..


Quoting Civicane49:


I give it a near 0% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.


Only reason it's been watched at all IMO, is it's vicinity to th Hawaiian Islands..
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CV49, seeing as you live in Honolulu, have you ever had a facility tour of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol.I knew everyone at my reunion except for my cousin's husbands/wife's.Really strange indeed.


Then there's always that one relative that puts unorthodox ingredients in their food. "Why are there pineapple chunks in my spaghetti?" "Oh that? It's for added flavor. Isn't it great?" "No it's not, but since I'm not a dick, I'm keeping my opinions to myself."
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting pcola57:


Neither does the CPHC out of Hawaii..


I give it a near 0% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
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152. flsky
Quoting mcluvincane:
Since we are on the topic of global warming, i myself don't believe the hype.... the earth has warmed many times in its life, millions of years of heating and cooling. It's a process that is a part of why we even exist. If the earth never warmed after the ice age we would never exist. Get use to it.....

Read, read, read. Learn, learn, learn.
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Quoting Civicane49:


I don't expect development of this disturbance.


Neither does the CPHC out of Hawaii..
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Quoting ENSO2012:


3 days out, yet the NHC has yet to recognize it, Centex! Can you believe that? It perplexes me BEYOND disbelief. If they don't highlight this area by tomorrow, I'm gonna crack!
Hate to put % on forecast but think they will wait 24-48 hours to tag this. I also do not understand ignoring models in short time frame situations. I guess CV July bias.
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WP102012 - Tropical Storm SAOLA

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)




Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

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Quoting pcola57:


I don't expect development of this disturbance in the central Pacific.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I went to a family reunion in upstate Mississippi in May. I literally didn't know anyone there. "Hmm... I know this guy somehow. I think he married nameless person whom I don't even know except nominally." It was awkward.
Lol.I knew everyone at my reunion except for my cousin's husbands/wife's.Really strange indeed.
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144. flsky
Quoting trunkmonkey:


Yeah, it is their blog, and many have been banned over the years for disagreeing with their blog, again it's their blog.
The more you debate with their views the greater chance of be banned or in other words, Censored!
Play the game, be on the side of GW. or CC, your good to go!
I'm a novas, I can't argue my way out of a paper bag on weather, GW. CC, or any of the alphabet soup.
But I really love to read the weather debates! and forecast!

What is a "novas?" Did you mean to say "novice?"
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Eye wall mostly wrapped around a large eye, yes I know this image is a couple hours old.
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Quoting Grothar:


Grothar posts a 264 hour model run?
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139. etxwx
Heat wave causes eight deaths, sends thousands to hospitals

Kyodo, Japan - Monday, July 30, 2012

Excerpt: Temperatures soared over the weekend as a high pressure system enveloped the nation, causing at least eight deaths and around 2,400 hospital visits due to heat-related ailments, a Kyodo News tally said.

On Saturday, five people died of heatstroke and 1,500 had to be taken to hospitals for heat-related emergencies.

The Meteorological Agency issued high temperature warnings to 34 prefectures on Sunday, urging the public to guard against heat exhaustion.

Readings above 35 (95F) had been recorded at 61 of the 927 observation points across the country as of Sunday afternoon, the JMA said.

The 37.1-degree (98.7F) reading in Tatebayashi, Gunma Prefecture, was the highest of the day. On Saturday, the highest temperature was a scorching 38.4 (101.1F) in the same city.

The Japanese archipelago has been engulfed by a high-pressure system in the Pacific Ocean that is bringing warm southerly winds, raising temperatures from Kyushu to Hokkaido.

On Sunday, the mercury hit 36.7 (98F) in Hita, Oita Prefecture, and 36.6 in Fuchu, Fukushima Prefecture, Kyotanabe in Kyoto, and Kumagai in Saitama.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Come on Bloby, this way bloby....

I have a question if the first tw moves farther north could it also develop?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.