Oil industry-funded "BEST" study finds global warming is real, manmade

By: Angela Fritz , 12:21 AM GMT on July 30, 2012

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The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) group is in the news again, surprising climate change skeptics with results from a new study that shows the earth has warmed 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, and that "essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases." Dr. Richard Muller, who heads the BEST team, now considers himself a "converted skeptic," which he wrote about in a New York Times op-ed on Saturday:

"Call me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I'm now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause."

Not only is the lead scientist of the project a former climate change skeptic, BEST itself is funded by the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, an organization that is rooted deep in the oil industry and the manufactured doubt industry. Two years ago a report found that the Koch brothers outspent Exxon Mobile in science disinformation at a whopping $48.5 million since 1997. Despite the special interest of their funders, BEST has made it clear, both on their website and in the results they've come to, that funding sources will not play a role in the results of their research, and that they "will be presented with full transparency."

Figure 1. The BEST surface temperature reconstruction (black) with a 95% confidence interval (grey). The overlying curve (red) is a curve fit to the temperature reconstruction based on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and volcanic activity.

Muller's research comes to essentially the same conclusion as similar well-known studies on the topic of global temperature rise. It attempts to address the question of attribution—how much has the globe warmed, and what is to blame? They found that solar activity relates very little to the fluctuations in temperature over the past 250 years, and that the warming is "almost entirely" due to greenhouse gas emissions, combined with some variability from volcanic eruptions. It's important to note that while Muller and his team found warming of 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, the IPCC did not find quite that much warming in their AR4 assessment.

BEST was in the news in October when they released results from their first independent study of surface temperature, which set out to address some common skeptic concerns about previous temperature reconstructions (e.g. NASA, NOAA, and HadCRU), including the urban heat island effect and the potential "cherry picking" of data. Both of these concerns were found to be non-issues. BEST concluded that the urban heat island effect does not contribute significantly to the land temperature rise. In fact, in their new study, they were able to reproduce the warming trend using nothing but rural stations.

BEST Part II doesn't necessarily bring anything new to the science as it currently exists; we've known for decades that the planet is warming and the cause is manmade. But in this case the scientific process played out the way it should: a skeptic of a certain scientific result took on the project, and was open and willing to accept whatever result the science gave him. We now have another batch of results in the group of well-known temperature reconstructions, funded by big-oil-interests, that tells us the planet is warming and that the cause is fossil fuel emissions.

Angela

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Quoting stormchaser19:


No, yo soy de Republica Dominicana


I've been to the Capital and we drove through Casa de Campo all the way to la Romana...

We have Dominican friends here in PR that go back and visit from time to time the family there...

RD produces 80% of their food consumption.....
We are producing 10%...
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Quoting mcluvincane:


Ok, the sun is getting closer lmao
Lol.It is 2012 after all.Isn't something related to the sun suppose to happen?.
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Cuando Huracán Ernesto anima, sólo español debe ser hablado. ¡Eso sería interesante!
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Quoting BobWallace:


Good, magic is off the table. Now let's get on to physics and physical causes, shall we?

What has caused natural cooling and warming in the past?

Physical things don't just change for no reason. Something drives change.


Ok, the sun is getting closer lmao
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Quoting reedzone:


God :)


Yes reed?
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Quoting BobWallace:


Good, magic is off the table. Now let's get on to physics and physical causes, shall we?

What has caused natural cooling and warming in the past?

Physical things don't just change for no reason. Something drives change.


If we are going to do that let's start with the moon crashing into earth theory. Basically the moon crashed into the earth many years ago and turned it into a ball of lava. Slowly, the earth began to cool and a surface began to form...

Someone continue this for me.
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Quoting BobWallace:


I find it very interesting that so many people dig very deeply into the systems that create storms and at the same time choose to ignore a major climate shift that is underway and will almost certainly change the pattern of storms in the future.

A world in which the ocean temperatures change and in which the jet stream changes will produce different weather systems than what we've experienced in the past.

Do people think that if they bury their heads deeply enough in the sand that the world will stay the same?

--

Do you not understand that Jeff and Angela are trying to tell your something? Jeff and Angela, you know, weather experts.
Climate and weather are connected to each other as in one affects the other. If climate changes then the weather will follow and both need to be covered.
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Quoting BobWallace:


Good, magic is off the table. Now let's get on to physics and physical causes, shall we?

What has caused natural cooling and warming in the past?

Physical things don't just change for no reason. Something drives change.


Yeah you got it -- DRIVES change. It's obvious that AMERICA is the problem and if we just paid more in taxes and gave the money to poor people to take buses everything would be just fine and then us RICH people could drive on roads that weren't as cluttered.
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Quoting BobWallace:


Good, magic is off the table. Now let's get on to physics and physical causes, shall we?

What has caused natural cooling and warming in the past?

Physical things don't just change for no reason. Something drives change.


God :)
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¡Usted chavos que utilizan español están como un examen para el mí.mantiene en ello mantenerme en mis dedos!
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Off topic:

My membership is about to expire, yet I could give a free one year membership to someone...

Anyone need one?
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Si, vivo en Caguas.... aunque prefiero a Rincon....

donde estas? Que clase tapon por el fuego de un truck de gasolina hoy...


No, yo soy de Republica Dominicana
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Quoting mcluvincane:



First of all i don't believe in magic, secondly the earth naturally cools and warms. Call it as you wish mr gore, it's my opinion and leave it at that, you got me?


Good, magic is off the table. Now let's get on to physics and physical causes, shall we?

What has caused natural cooling and warming in the past?

Physical things don't just change for no reason. Something drives change.
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Quoting stormchaser19:


Sunlinepr eres de puerto rico verdad ?


Si, vivo en Caguas.... aunque prefiero a Rincon....

donde estas? Hoy hubo tremendo tapon por el fuego de un truck de gasolina ...
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Yep..mmmm we really need a tropical system to track.

It should be coming in the next 7 days. Things will return to a state of normality here.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Whether or not you believe in climate change, I wish Dr. Masters and Angela would not post about climate change. Leave that for other blogs on this site.


I find it very interesting that so many people dig very deeply into the systems that create storms and at the same time choose to ignore a major climate shift that is underway and will almost certainly change the pattern of storms in the future.

A world in which the ocean temperatures change and in which the jet stream changes will produce different weather systems than what we've experienced in the past.

Do people think that if they bury their heads deeply enough in the sand that the world will stay the same?

--

Do you not understand that Jeff and Angela are trying to tell your something? Jeff and Angela, you know, weather experts.
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Yep..mmmm we really need a tropical system to track.
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My take on the tropics right now:
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Quoting reedzone:
18Z shows an early similar presentation from the last Ernesto.. Quite interesting.

I remember that Ernesto. At one point it was forecast to get into the Gulf of Mexico and become a very powerful hurricane. Good thing it did not turn out that way. How are you doing this evening?
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Hey boris yo soy de Republica Dominicana hay que chequear esa onda tropical en medio del atlantico, GFS la da cogiendo para el sur pero el modelo canadiense CMC la da por encima de ustedes de puerto rico, si los modelos entran en consenso talves afecte a puerto Rico y a nosotros aqui en Republica dominicana
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Quoting BobWallace:


So, in your view, did those previous warmings and coolings have a cause or was magic involved?

You know, "the Earth just decided to get hot for a while".






First of all i don't believe in magic, secondly the earth naturally cools and warms. Call it as you wish mr gore, it's my opinion and leave it at that, you got me?
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Berkeley? Enough said.

Remember the last ice age -- if you believe in that kind of thing? What kind of cars were they driving back then that cause the ice age to end? It's almost like the temperature of the earth goes up and down no matter what man does.

That's what I used to think anyways, but 6 months ago I decided I'd do some research myself and I started tracking the temperature everyday -- and you want to know the results. In just my 6-months of study my average local temperature has increased 30-degrees! Let me tell you my friends, global warming is real and at this rate by December everyone will be without a doubt as temps will easily be in the 120s and 130s all across the nation!
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Guadalupe.... Espero que no tengan ningun huracan en esta temporada....


Sunlinepr eres de puerto rico verdad ?
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Guadalupe.... Espero que no tengan ningun huracan en esta temporada....


Pero que cojan mucha lluvia de las Ondas porque la necesitan.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14210
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Well.... maybe Not too much rain in there....


Ahh my friend enough is plenty..too much is a waste... :)
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Quoting JRRP:

me imagino que ver la actividad de relampagos debe ser impresionante desde guadalupe


Guadalupe.... Espero que no tengan ningun huracan en esta temporada.... Dijeron que la onda llega manana por la noche... quizas en la tarde, si no se discipa....


I hope Guadalupe gets no Hurricane this year...
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Quoting flsky:

Classic....


Classic indeed, my grandfather use to tell me that all the time....


C
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Quoting westernmob:


How much did Leif Erikson and his fellow Earth com padres contribute to GW during the last warm period?


Most likely some. It's pretty clear that mankind started warming up the planet when we started practicing agriculture a few thousand years back.

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Quoting pcola57:


Well.... maybe Not too much rain in there....
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Quoting JRRP:

me imagino que ver la actividad de relampagos debe ser impresionante desde guadalupe


Pero aqui hay mucha gente que habla espanol,muchos boricuas por lo que veo.
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Large anti-nuclear rally held in Tokyo 200K
Source: NHK World

Link



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Quoting mcluvincane:
Since we are on the topic of global warming, i myself don't believe the hype.... the earth has warmed many times in its life, millions of years of heating and cooling. It's a process that is a part of why we even exist. If the earth never warmed after the ice age we would never exist. Get use to it.....


So, in your view, did those previous warmings and coolings have a cause or was magic involved?

You know, "the Earth just decided to get hot for a while".



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Quoting ncstorm:


Is this yours or the NHC?


His.
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197. flsky
Quoting mcluvincane:


Believe nothing that you hear and half of what you read...

Classic....
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Quoting ENSO2012:



Ohhh, a retaliatory move, wasn't it?


A friendly retaliatory move. For some reason, I'm not holding any animosity toward you tonight.
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195. JRRP
Quoting sunlinepr:
Getting near... My cistern is awaiting....


me imagino que ver la actividad de relampagos debe ser impresionante desde guadalupe
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tonight's TWO:



Is this yours or the NHC?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15073
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's called a phone. Use it. :P


Well, I don't have the phone. Only a camera. :P
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Quoting Civicane49:


I forgot to bring a camera.


It's called a phone. Use it. :P
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


TA13,the circle has to be a little bit north of that one with center of it at 9N-32W.

That's...pretty much where I have it at. Lol.
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Floater from Ramsdis. It may not look solid to develop now but has a good spin.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14210

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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