Oil industry-funded "BEST" study finds global warming is real, manmade

By: Angela Fritz , 12:21 AM GMT on July 30, 2012

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The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) group is in the news again, surprising climate change skeptics with results from a new study that shows the earth has warmed 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, and that "essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases." Dr. Richard Muller, who heads the BEST team, now considers himself a "converted skeptic," which he wrote about in a New York Times op-ed on Saturday:

"Call me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I'm now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause."

Not only is the lead scientist of the project a former climate change skeptic, BEST itself is funded by the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, an organization that is rooted deep in the oil industry and the manufactured doubt industry. Two years ago a report found that the Koch brothers outspent Exxon Mobile in science disinformation at a whopping $48.5 million since 1997. Despite the special interest of their funders, BEST has made it clear, both on their website and in the results they've come to, that funding sources will not play a role in the results of their research, and that they "will be presented with full transparency."

Figure 1. The BEST surface temperature reconstruction (black) with a 95% confidence interval (grey). The overlying curve (red) is a curve fit to the temperature reconstruction based on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and volcanic activity.

Muller's research comes to essentially the same conclusion as similar well-known studies on the topic of global temperature rise. It attempts to address the question of attribution—how much has the globe warmed, and what is to blame? They found that solar activity relates very little to the fluctuations in temperature over the past 250 years, and that the warming is "almost entirely" due to greenhouse gas emissions, combined with some variability from volcanic eruptions. It's important to note that while Muller and his team found warming of 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, the IPCC did not find quite that much warming in their AR4 assessment.

BEST was in the news in October when they released results from their first independent study of surface temperature, which set out to address some common skeptic concerns about previous temperature reconstructions (e.g. NASA, NOAA, and HadCRU), including the urban heat island effect and the potential "cherry picking" of data. Both of these concerns were found to be non-issues. BEST concluded that the urban heat island effect does not contribute significantly to the land temperature rise. In fact, in their new study, they were able to reproduce the warming trend using nothing but rural stations.

BEST Part II doesn't necessarily bring anything new to the science as it currently exists; we've known for decades that the planet is warming and the cause is manmade. But in this case the scientific process played out the way it should: a skeptic of a certain scientific result took on the project, and was open and willing to accept whatever result the science gave him. We now have another batch of results in the group of well-known temperature reconstructions, funded by big-oil-interests, that tells us the planet is warming and that the cause is fossil fuel emissions.

Angela

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Quoting RussianWinter:


Actually, for the immediate moment the Caribbean and the rest of the tropical Atlantic is a great place to be right now. The area is void of any storms and is safe until next week, probably.

Lol.

I was talking from a tropical cyclone's point of view.

Weird, I know.
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Quoting JLPR2:
272. ENSO2012 11:46 PM AST on July 29, 2012

I wont quote that, but check again, who is writing in Spanish? XD

Seriously what is wrong with you?
I'm not to sure why you all are even giving him attention.He's attention starved.Now back to weather.
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Quoting Jelloboy:


I'm selective noob.


I Edited my comments to you and like I said I probably just don't understand you/what your saying..
I will see what you have to say and make my own opinions like I always have..
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Quoting ncstorm:
WX..ignore Bob and keep on posting..
Ok nc, 66 hours has the storm moving west.
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284. flsky
Quoting JLPR2:


Yet you are still writing in Spanish...
Keep it up and you will be banned soon, not for speaking Spanish, for the inappropriate words you use.

No ban. Translation is a piece of cake these days. Keep on postin'....
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I have friends that do.

And...the only problem is, systems in that pattern would have to go through the Caribbean...and the Caribbean is not a good place to be right now, and does not look to be so anytime soon.


Actually, for the immediate moment the Caribbean and the rest of the tropical Atlantic is a great place to be right now. The area is void of any storms and is safe until next week, probably.
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63 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15668
60W, right on cue.



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278. JLPR2
272. ENSO2012 11:46 PM AST on July 29, 2012

I wont quote that, but check again, who is writing in Spanish? XD

Seriously what is wrong with you?
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Quoting ENSO2012:


OMFG, you do have access to the 700 hour Euro. Cody, why didn't you tell me?

That pattern in September If that remains like that, we're done for. Game, set, match as far as the conus would go.

I have friends that do.

And...the only problem is, systems in that pattern would have to go through the Caribbean...and the Caribbean is not a good place to be right now, and does not look to be so anytime soon.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Wow, 97% of climate scientists aren't as smart as some of our deniers here to hear them tell it. Eagerly awaiting their "soon to be published" scientific debunking of known science. Until then, their hot air will just contribute to the problem. Angela even brought up the suggested "cherry picking" of data and addressed that issue. I hope you were reading Yoboi since "cherry picking" is one of your favorite zingers to throw at climate scientists.


Truth is there could be many things contributing to the dynamic nature of climate. And climate is dynamic. That is a fact.
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WX..ignore Bob and keep on posting..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15668

WP102012 - Tropical Storm SAOLA

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

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Quoting wxchaser97:
What mail?


I thought one went out about spamming when topics weren't acceptable to you.

I guess it hasn't been posted yet.
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268. JLPR2
Quoting ENSO2012:



No me provoques, infeliz; NO ME PROVOQUES!


Yet you are still writing in Spanish...
Keep it up and you will be banned soon, not for speaking Spanish, for the inappropriate words you use.
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Quoting BobWallace:


Didn't you get the email?
What mail?
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Quoting ENSO2012:
Haganme el favor, y aquellos ustedes de Puerto Rico, DEJEN de hablar en Espanol en este foro, estamos?

No es apropiado! Si lo siguen haciendo, los reportare a la administracion de este citio! Entendido? Ingles solamente!!!!!!!


Mano, en palabras de la calle....la verdad que tu debes ser tremendo bacilon cuando estas con tus panas.... Como dicen aqui, tremendo loco.....
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Quoting wxchaser97:
42 hours


Didn't you get the email?
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Wow, 97% of climate scientists aren't as smart as some of our deniers here to hear them tell it. Eagerly awaiting their "soon to be published" scientific debunking of known science. Until then, their hot air will just contribute to the problem. Angela even brought up the suggested "cherry picking" of data and addressed that issue. I hope you were reading Yoboi since "cherry picking" is one of your favorite zingers to throw at climate scientists.
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Quoting BobWallace:


Americans are a big piece of the problem. As are Canadians and Australians and citizens of a few island nations and some oil-producing nations that burn their oil to produce electricity. We are the worst per capita in terms of CO2 production.

But here's some good news for you. We have the technology to cut way back on CO2 production without decreasing our lifestyles.

And our electricity will be cheaper and it will cost far less to drive our cars.



I couldn't agree more. If there are more Americans that thought like yourself and were willing to live without cars and electricity it would allow people like myself to have bigger houses and bigger cars without the guilt, not that I actually have any. If only I paid more in taxes then the government would have more of my money to invest in ground breaking companies like Solyndra -- damn me for keeping my money and huge house and cars, damn me for sure. Oh well, if the earth is getting warming I guess its good my home has 2 air conditioning units since I'll need the additional cooling.
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For laughs, here is the last frame of the very, very, very long range ECMWF.



The steering is practically the same then as it is now. Of course, you have to take this with less than a grain of salt considering it's a month out.
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42 hours
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Quoting mcluvincane:


Ok, the sun is getting closer lmao


Nope, we've got very good data on that.

The input from the Sun has been slightly dropping for quite some time. It's not the Sun.

Guess again.
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256. Skyepony (Mod)
ASCAT~ Barely missing all interesting areas tonight..

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36 hours, and it begins
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12 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15668
Quoting RussianWinter:
If you're going to argue about climate change, you must first acknowledge that the biggest impacts on climate before humans were even born were geological and cosmological.

Let's start there right?


Sure. You got that right.

Now that we're on track, I'll bet you know that up until about 150 years ago the Earth was very slowly drifting toward another ice age.

Then something happened that reversed the "natural" cooling and started warming up the planet.

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30 hours
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the GFS has a low at the Lesser antilles..it didnt have it in the 18z run..6 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15668
248. JLPR2
Quoting ENSO2012:
Haganme el favor, y aquellos ustedes de Puerto Rico, DEJEN de hablar en Espanol en este foro, estamos?

No es apropiado! Si lo siguen haciendo, los reportare a la administracion de este citio! Entendido? Ingles solamente!!!!!!!


A rabbit telling a donkey that he has big ears...

XD
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GFS is running, 12 hours
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Quoting Jelloboy:


Yeah you got it -- DRIVES change. It's obvious that AMERICA is the problem and if we just paid more in taxes and gave the money to poor people to take buses everything would be just fine and then us RICH people could drive on roads that weren't as cluttered.


Americans are a big piece of the problem. As are Canadians and Australians and citizens of a few island nations and some oil-producing nations that burn their oil to produce electricity. We are the worst per capita in terms of CO2 production.

But here's some good news for you. We have the technology to cut way back on CO2 production without decreasing our lifestyles.

And our electricity will be cheaper and it will cost far less to drive our cars.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If you're going to argue about climate change, you must first acknowledge that the biggest impacts on climate before humans were even born were geological and cosmological.

Let's start there right?
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Nevermind..Maybe I don't understand you..
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Quoting sunlinepr:


I've been to the Capital and we drove through Casa de Campo all the way to la Romana...

We have Dominican friends here in PR that go back and visit from time to time the family there...

RD produces 80% of their food consumption.....
We are producing 10%...


Yeah one of the best places here in DR
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
¡Usted chavos que utilizan español están como un examen para el mí.mantiene en ello mantenerme en mis dedos!


Your Spanish is from school or from close relatives?
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In case anyone is wondering..the GFS is running..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15668
Quoting stormchaser19:


No, yo soy de Republica Dominicana


I've been to the Capital and we drove through Casa de Campo all the way to la Romana...

We have Dominican friends here in PR that go back and visit from time to time the family there...

RD produces 80% of their food consumption.....
We are producing 10%...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.