Oil industry-funded "BEST" study finds global warming is real, manmade

By: Angela Fritz , 12:21 AM GMT on July 30, 2012

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The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) group is in the news again, surprising climate change skeptics with results from a new study that shows the earth has warmed 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, and that "essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases." Dr. Richard Muller, who heads the BEST team, now considers himself a "converted skeptic," which he wrote about in a New York Times op-ed on Saturday:

"Call me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I'm now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause."

Not only is the lead scientist of the project a former climate change skeptic, BEST itself is funded by the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, an organization that is rooted deep in the oil industry and the manufactured doubt industry. Two years ago a report found that the Koch brothers outspent Exxon Mobile in science disinformation at a whopping $48.5 million since 1997. Despite the special interest of their funders, BEST has made it clear, both on their website and in the results they've come to, that funding sources will not play a role in the results of their research, and that they "will be presented with full transparency."

Figure 1. The BEST surface temperature reconstruction (black) with a 95% confidence interval (grey). The overlying curve (red) is a curve fit to the temperature reconstruction based on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and volcanic activity.

Muller's research comes to essentially the same conclusion as similar well-known studies on the topic of global temperature rise. It attempts to address the question of attribution—how much has the globe warmed, and what is to blame? They found that solar activity relates very little to the fluctuations in temperature over the past 250 years, and that the warming is "almost entirely" due to greenhouse gas emissions, combined with some variability from volcanic eruptions. It's important to note that while Muller and his team found warming of 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, the IPCC did not find quite that much warming in their AR4 assessment.

BEST was in the news in October when they released results from their first independent study of surface temperature, which set out to address some common skeptic concerns about previous temperature reconstructions (e.g. NASA, NOAA, and HadCRU), including the urban heat island effect and the potential "cherry picking" of data. Both of these concerns were found to be non-issues. BEST concluded that the urban heat island effect does not contribute significantly to the land temperature rise. In fact, in their new study, they were able to reproduce the warming trend using nothing but rural stations.

BEST Part II doesn't necessarily bring anything new to the science as it currently exists; we've known for decades that the planet is warming and the cause is manmade. But in this case the scientific process played out the way it should: a skeptic of a certain scientific result took on the project, and was open and willing to accept whatever result the science gave him. We now have another batch of results in the group of well-known temperature reconstructions, funded by big-oil-interests, that tells us the planet is warming and that the cause is fossil fuel emissions.

Angela

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135 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13441
Quoting mcluvincane:


Are you from Siberia Russian? If so its darn right cold there isnt it?


If you know anything about Siberia, it is that Siberia is cold . You may also associate it with gulags, Stalin, or the USSR's forced relocation of various ethnic groups, but even if you don't, the cold you've heard about. In fact, Siberia is home to Oymyakon, a hamlet of 800, and the coldest continuously inhabited place on the planet.

This past winter, Oymyakon hosted droves of Russian reporters in huge fur jackets who had come to report on an especially cold winter. Twice, temperatures dropped to -60.2 C, or nearly -86 F, marking one of the coldest winters the village of once-nomadic reindeer herders has suffered in nearly a century. It was so cold, Russia Today reported, that human life virtually ground to a halt.


But not these days. Today (which is really tomorrow there) , and yesterday, and for the past two weeks, Oymyakon has been in the grips of an unprecedented heatwave. On Thursday, temperatures were recorded at just under 32 C, or nearly 90 degrees. (32.6 C is the highest ever recorded temperature), with weekend temperatues in the high 80s.


Link
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Quoting flsky:
Does someone have the latest GFS?

Yes, 138 hours and 1006mb
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Quoting RussianWinter:



Do it from 2005 to 2011 and you'll see a decrease. Keep in mind that nowadays the NHC names plenty of those northern low pressure systems, which add to the tally of storms.


Well yeah but if I use your timeframe I don't get the results I like, that's why I like to use selective time frames and selective science just like Al Gore! For example people say the earth is getting hotter, but in reality if you go back 4.5-billion years ago it's much much much cooler, in fact a few degree swing in the history of the earth wouldn't even show-up on a chart. BUT if you only take a selected period of time and start at the coldest and go to the warmest - you can prove global warming and more importantly get more MONEY! And after all don't we all just work for the Benjamin -- or I guess a Lenin in Russia, not sure.
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334. flsky
Does someone have the latest GFS?
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What is the lowest pressure in 120 hours?

1007mb on the low.
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Quoting mcluvincane:


Are you from Siberia Russian? If so its darn right cold there isnt it?


Yes, although I was raised pretty close to the pacific ocean. And in certain areas east of the mountain range, yes it does get cold and summers are pretty cool. For me it's the ideal climate.




...Never liked living in Miami. Hate the sun and it's strong UV rays here with a passion, I yearn for the cloudy and rainy days I saw as a kid.

I'll probably search for jobs somewhere in either Northern Europe or Southern Alaska.
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Winds, currents and massive whirlpools that carry warm and cold water around the ocean -- known as eddies -- create localised pathways or funnels for carbon to be stored.



Lead author, Dr Jean-Baptiste Sallée from British Antarctic Survey says, "The Southern Ocean is a large window by which the atmosphere connects to the interior of the ocean below. Until now we didn't know exactly the physical processes of how carbon ends up being stored deep in the ocean. It's the combination of winds, currents and eddies that create these carbon-capturing pathways drawing waters down into the deep ocean from the ocean surface.............

Link

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Quoting mcluvincane:


Tad bit more north, this is getting good and so is my popcorn
Should be interesting to see what the gfs does when the storm enters the Caribbean.
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Quoting RussianWinter:


And there is more methane rising out of Siberia, and methane is a much more potent warming agent. What triggered it? The warming of the planet.

Yet warming melts ice, increases biological activity in some sectors, shifts some rain around, giving a chaotic and unpredictable short term result.

That's what humanity must adapt to. I mean you have heard of the inhabited islands in the Pacific struggling against sea level right?


Well, good, you recognize the problem of melting permafrost and methyl hydrates. Lots of folks don't.

It does look like we're beginning to warm up to the point where amplifying forces are kicking in. And that will warm things up even faster.

Adapt? Now that's going to be quite the trick. Adapting to a much hotter climate in which most of our current food crops just won't grow.

I suppose some small numbers of us could move underground where temperatures will be tolerable and grow our food under artificial light.

That's a heck of a future to give our children and grandchildren, isn't it?
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327. flsky
Quoting stormchaser19:


yeah most of the time the pressure is a little more down in reality, but is when the storm was formed

Huh?
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Quoting wxchaser97:
120 hours, similar track to past gfs runs.


What is the lowest pressure in 120 hours?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13284
325. JLPR2
No wonder this place got quiet, everyone is looking at the GFS run. Ha!
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Quoting wxchaser97:
120 hours, similar track to past gfs runs.


Tad bit more north, this is getting good and so is my popcorn
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1338
Quoting BobWallace:


The chronic drought that hit western North America from 2000 to 2004 left dying forests and depleted river basins in its wake and was the strongest in 800 years, scientists have concluded, but they say those conditions will become the "new normal" for most of the coming century.

Cimatic extremes have increased as a result of global warming, a group of 10 researchers reported July 29 in Nature Geoscience. And as bad as conditions were during the 2000-04 drought, they may eventually be seen as the good old days.


Climate models and precipitation projections indicate this period will actually be closer to the "wet end" of a drier hydroclimate during the last half of the 21st century, scientists said.


Link



A drier hydroclimate where?

Some places are a bit short of water yet others are dealing with record flooding...
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120 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13441
120 hours, similar track to past gfs runs.
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Quoting RussianWinter:


Yes I know, some people on this board needs to be reminded about this. The resident trolls need to be taught the ways of humanity.


Are you from Siberia Russian? If so its darn right cold there isnt it?
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1338
Giant Ice Avalanches On Saturn's Moon Iapetus Provide Clue to Extreme Slippage Elsewhere in the Solar System

ScienceDaily (July 29, 2012) — "We see landslides everywhere in the solar system," says Kelsi Singer, graduate student in earth and planetary sciences in Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis, "but Saturn's icy moon Iapetus has more giant landslides than any body other than Mars."..................

Link



Ice avalanches on Rhea behave differently than those on Iapetus. On Rhea, ice lands in a debris pile beneath the crater wall instead of scooting miles into the crater. Rhea is roughly the same size as Iapetus and has an icy surface, but it’s not out-of-round. Its topography is less rugged and its craters are not as deep. So, on this icy moon, icefalls do not gather speed, and the ice never becomes slippery (Credit: NASA/JPL/SSI/LPI. Color-coded elevation: Paul Schenk/LPI)
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Quoting RussianWinter:


What makes you say that?


yeah most of the time the pressure is a little more down in reality, but is when the storm was formed
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The chronic drought that hit western North America from 2000 to 2004 left dying forests and depleted river basins in its wake and was the strongest in 800 years, scientists have concluded, but they say those conditions will become the "new normal" for most of the coming century.

Cimatic extremes have increased as a result of global warming, a group of 10 researchers reported July 29 in Nature Geoscience. And as bad as conditions were during the 2000-04 drought, they may eventually be seen as the good old days.


Climate models and precipitation projections indicate this period will actually be closer to the "wet end" of a drier hydroclimate during the last half of the 21st century, scientists said.


Link

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Dude, that's not what I meant. I'm pretty sure you know that.


Yes I know, some people on this board needs to be reminded about this. The resident trolls need to be taught the ways of humanity.
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Quoting Jelloboy:


Noob means newbie -- you know since I'm old school and you didn't sign-up for nearly 5-years after I did. That means I rule.

Anyways you bore me.

On to the next point -- I charted the number of hurricanes from the year 2000 until the year 2005 and what I found was a huge increase in the number of storms. If we project these findings forward we find that based on my studies of a specific time frame and using those results to project future trends we should have around 115 named tropical systems in the Atlantic in 2012! Heads up people, you heard it first. So far we're only 4 storms in so I would expect a recording breaking Aug, Sep, Oct and Nov!



Do it from 2005 to 2011 and you'll see a decrease. Keep in mind that nowadays the NHC names plenty of those northern low pressure systems, which add to the tally of storms.
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108 hours
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Quoting RussianWinter:


I don't think most folks would find that funny. Steering currents into the mainland are unwelcome for most people.

Dude, that's not what I meant. I'm pretty sure you know that.
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Quoting RussianWinter:


And there is more methane rising out of Siberia, and methane is a much more potent warming agent. What triggered it? The warming of the planet.

Yet warming melts ice, increases biological activity in some sectors, shifts some rain around, giving a chaotic and unpredictable short term result.

That's what humanity must adapt to. I mean you have heard of the inhabited islands in the Pacific struggling against sea level right?




Didn't u know the GFS is running
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1338
Quoting stormchaser19:


1007 mb pressure in a model is like 1003 mb in reality


What makes you say that?
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Quoting chicagogeorge:
The US now holds the worlds hottest temperature ever record!!


That is pretty darn hot.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
78 hours and it is strengthening with a pressure of 1007mb.


1007 mb pressure in a model is like 1003 mb in reality
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306. 7544
hmm the island blob at 60 west seems to be doing very well tonight could be a invest imo after dmax tonight also watch the area around the bahamas tonight could flare up in the am
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Quoting pcola57:


I Edited my comments to you and like I said I probably just don't understand you/what your saying..
I will see what you have to say and make my own opinions like I always have..


Noob means newbie -- you know since I'm old school and you didn't sign-up for nearly 5-years after I did. That means I rule.

Anyways you bore me.

On to the next point -- I charted the number of hurricanes from the year 2000 until the year 2005 and what I found was a huge increase in the number of storms. If we project these findings forward we find that based on my studies of a specific time frame and using those results to project future trends we should have around 115 named tropical systems in the Atlantic in 2012! Heads up people, you heard it first. So far we're only 4 storms in so I would expect a recording breaking Aug, Sep, Oct and Nov!
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Quoting BobWallace:


There could be.

Here's the thing. Scientists have investigated all known causes for climate change and ruled almost all of them out.

The Earth hasn't gotten closer to the Sun. The Sun hasn't increased its output. No new mountain ranges have suddenly sprung up. No massive swarms of volcanoes have spit out CO2 and heat. No major changes in ocean currents have been detected.

The one thing that they have observed. There's a heck of a lot more CO2, methane and some other greenhouse gases in our atmosphere than there was 150 years back.

Enough to trap enough heat to warm the planet.

Interesting, eh?


And there is more methane rising out of Siberia, and methane is a much more potent warming agent. What triggered it? The warming of the planet.

Yet warming melts ice, increases biological activity in some sectors, shifts some rain around, giving a chaotic and unpredictable short term result.

That's what humanity must adapt to. I mean you have heard of the inhabited islands in the Pacific struggling against sea level right?
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The US now holds the worlds hottest temperature ever record!!

"SK TOM WHY: 134° in Death Valley, California on July 10, 1913
July 29, 2012 7:48 PM
Dear readers,

Since this column's inception in 1997 we have reported on nearly a dozen occasions the world's highest temperature to be 136 degrees recorded at El Azizia, Libya on September 13, 1922. That will not happen again. In a stunning retraction, a soon to be published article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Commission on Climatology has rejected this temperature extreme. Their findings were based on five major concerns- problems with the instrumentation, an inexperienced observer, unrepresentative microclimate at the site, poor relationship to surrounding temperatures and poor comparison to subsequent temperatures there. After further review, the planet's new highest temperature- 134 degrees measured at the Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, California on July 10, 1913."
http://blog.chicagoweathercenter.com/2012/07/ask- tom-why-134-in-death-valley-california-on-july-10- 1913.html
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Quoting JLPR2:


It's probably because I'm bored. XD

And as you said, back to weather.

Seems like the islands should get some rain soon, hoping it also reaches the NE islands, from what I have read here they need it.


Yes we need it BADELY
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Wave / Blob status....

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90 hours
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Back to tropics....

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consistency is starting to rear it's head on the GFS... may need to keep an eye on that sucker of a wave!
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Quoting ENSO2012:


''Mano''? Eres cubano?


Here "Mano" is used in daily people conversations, just like "mire mi hermano", "mira brother", "ven aca mano".....

Caribbean / CA / SA Spanish phrases are very similar and now more with globalization....
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295. JLPR2
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm not to sure why you all are even giving him attention.He's attention starved.Now back to weather.


It's probably because I'm bored. XD

And as you said, back to weather.

Seems like the islands should get some rain soon, hoping it also reaches the NE islands, from what I have read here they need it.
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78 hours and it is strengthening with a pressure of 1007mb.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
For laughs, here is the last frame of the very, very, very long range ECMWF.



The steering is practically the same then as it is now. Of course, you have to take this with less than a grain of salt considering it's a month out.


I don't think most folks would find that funny. Steering currents into the mainland are unwelcome for most people.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I have friends that do.

And...the only problem is, systems in that pattern would have to go through the Caribbean...and the Caribbean is not a good place to be right now, and does not look to be so anytime soon.


Not necessarily. Weak or undeveloped systems would follow the surface flow. Proper to back the SLP with a 500mb chart.
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291. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Storm "GENER" continues to endanger Extreme Northern Luzon

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Gener (Saola) located at 20.0°N 125.0°E or 290 km east southeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts up to 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #2
-----------------

Luzon Region
------------

1. Cagayan
2. Calayan Group of Islands
3. Babuyan Group of Islands
4. Batanes Group of Islands

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Luzon Region
============
1. Isabela
2. Kalinga
3. Apayao

Additional Information
=========================

Tropical Storm "Gener" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains and moderate to strong winds over Luzon and Visayas especially the western section.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under Public Storm Warning Signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Seaboards of central and southern Luzon, Visayas and eastern seaboard of Mindanao due to the combined effect of Tropical Storm "Gener" and the southwest monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
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Quoting RussianWinter:


Truth is there could be many things contributing to the dynamic nature of climate. And climate is dynamic. That is a fact.


There could be.

Here's the thing. Scientists have investigated all known causes for climate change and ruled almost all of them out.

The Earth hasn't gotten closer to the Sun. The Sun hasn't increased its output. No new mountain ranges have suddenly sprung up. No massive swarms of volcanoes have spit out CO2 and heat. No major changes in ocean currents have been detected.

The one thing that they have observed. There's a heck of a lot more CO2, methane and some other greenhouse gases in our atmosphere than there was 150 years back.

Enough to trap enough heat to warm the planet.

Interesting, eh?
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Quoting RussianWinter:


Actually, for the immediate moment the Caribbean and the rest of the tropical Atlantic is a great place to be right now. The area is void of any storms and is safe until next week, probably.

Lol.

I was talking from a tropical cyclone's point of view.

Weird, I know.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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