Oil industry-funded "BEST" study finds global warming is real, manmade

By: Angela Fritz , 12:21 AM GMT on July 30, 2012

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The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) group is in the news again, surprising climate change skeptics with results from a new study that shows the earth has warmed 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, and that "essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases." Dr. Richard Muller, who heads the BEST team, now considers himself a "converted skeptic," which he wrote about in a New York Times op-ed on Saturday:

"Call me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I'm now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause."

Not only is the lead scientist of the project a former climate change skeptic, BEST itself is funded by the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, an organization that is rooted deep in the oil industry and the manufactured doubt industry. Two years ago a report found that the Koch brothers outspent Exxon Mobile in science disinformation at a whopping $48.5 million since 1997. Despite the special interest of their funders, BEST has made it clear, both on their website and in the results they've come to, that funding sources will not play a role in the results of their research, and that they "will be presented with full transparency."

Figure 1. The BEST surface temperature reconstruction (black) with a 95% confidence interval (grey). The overlying curve (red) is a curve fit to the temperature reconstruction based on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and volcanic activity.

Muller's research comes to essentially the same conclusion as similar well-known studies on the topic of global temperature rise. It attempts to address the question of attribution—how much has the globe warmed, and what is to blame? They found that solar activity relates very little to the fluctuations in temperature over the past 250 years, and that the warming is "almost entirely" due to greenhouse gas emissions, combined with some variability from volcanic eruptions. It's important to note that while Muller and his team found warming of 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, the IPCC did not find quite that much warming in their AR4 assessment.

BEST was in the news in October when they released results from their first independent study of surface temperature, which set out to address some common skeptic concerns about previous temperature reconstructions (e.g. NASA, NOAA, and HadCRU), including the urban heat island effect and the potential "cherry picking" of data. Both of these concerns were found to be non-issues. BEST concluded that the urban heat island effect does not contribute significantly to the land temperature rise. In fact, in their new study, they were able to reproduce the warming trend using nothing but rural stations.

BEST Part II doesn't necessarily bring anything new to the science as it currently exists; we've known for decades that the planet is warming and the cause is manmade. But in this case the scientific process played out the way it should: a skeptic of a certain scientific result took on the project, and was open and willing to accept whatever result the science gave him. We now have another batch of results in the group of well-known temperature reconstructions, funded by big-oil-interests, that tells us the planet is warming and that the cause is fossil fuel emissions.

Angela

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Quoting TomTaylor:
The natural indicators you mention don't favor cooling. The solar cycle is heading upward, volcanism tends to cool the globe (since there haven't been any significant volcanic eruptions recently this would not favor cooling), and orbital cycles are on the scale of tens of thousands of years.

Solar Activity Chart



Long term solar activity has been dropping. You're looking at the short term, about 11 year cycle.

Link

Recent warming has likely been masked by a downward solar cycle and La Nina conditions. Now with the short term solar cycle on the rise and El Nino threatening a return we should see some toasty weather over the next few years.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Well,I spoke too soon about surviving the graveyard.
It is gone totally not even a re-develop near FL so far.
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look like GFS takes it W after a WNW-NW movement placeing it ESE of DR
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Quoting wxchaser97:
204 hours and it is dissipating.


Well,I spoke too soon about surviving the graveyard.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
BTW, thanks for posting those wxchaser97

Your welcome ProgressivePulse.
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Quoting BobWallace:
NASA, you know, the rocket scientist folks, have put up an interesting short video.

Link

A look at the last 131 years in only 26 seconds.....


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204 hours and it is dissipating.
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BTW, thanks for posting those wxchaser97
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Quoting Jelloboy:


I'm going to make a prediction that the earth's temp in decreasing and that will lead to some places getting droughts and other places getting flooding. Also while the overall temperature will go down some places will actually have record high temps while some have record cold temps. Of course you could just dismiss what I'm saying or perhaps you'd know I'm quoting from scientists in the 1960s and 1970s that believed "Global Cooling" was taking place and wanted to go as far as to paint in the ice caps black to help them melt faster to warm up the planet.


Whether the planet is cooling or warming is a look at historical records and data. The effect of that warming on the planet is prediction. The future warming and cooling trends are a prediction.

Also, on a humorous note, if you hung around the blog the past few weeks there has been a poster posting pictures of soot on ice on Greenland. Maybe those scientists were right after all.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Surviving the Eastern Caribbean graveyard so far.
So far its maintaining strength.
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164 hours=the trof goes by., it's over 1000 miles to the north..high builds in. notice the 1016 mb goes to n texas. if it develops stronger- it should break down the high a bit as it waits for the next opening.
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375. flsky
Quoting wxchaser97:

Yes, 138 hours and 1006mb

Hmmm - if that holds steady, looks to hit about Brownsville.
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Quoting Bern99:


Well, the warming is caused by CO2 increases, because natural indicators (solar variance, orbital factors, volcanism, etc) all point toward cooling.

We also know we have emitted about twice as much CO2 as the increase in atmospheric concentration over the last two centuries.

That would point toward us being 200% responsible for the warming... ;-)

Anyway, time for me to get back to work... just gone midday here.
The natural indicators you mention don't favor cooling. The solar cycle is heading upward, volcanism tends to cool the globe (since there haven't been any significant volcanic eruptions recently this would not favor cooling), and orbital cycles are on the scale of tens of thousands of years.

Solar Activity Chart

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Quoting wxchaser97:
174 hours


Surviving the Eastern Caribbean graveyard so far.
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Some like Jelloboy have no desire at all for truth. They choose to distort truth or flat out ignore it all together. Truth doesn't care if you believe in it or not. It simply is. Jelloboy either has a very real agenda or is just lost due to his choice to not seek. 97% of climate scientists who are credited and have worked tirelessly to come to this verifiable truth, or those with no science to provide that is verifiable at all; who's really believable here Jelloboy? Post your verifiable science, please. Or just type yawn again because you can't.
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180 hours and gfs is slowly taking it north throughout the run.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS ignores it thus far.


look at the 162 500mb ridging, no doubt. I do believe that the COL area still resides between the ATL ridge and the CONUS ridge. Should be enough to turn it.
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Quoting BobWallace:


Gosh, you're right. Some places are experiencing drought. And some places are flooding.

Just exactly like climate scientists told us would happen if we heated up the planet.

And you know what? Some places will have massive heat waves and other places will have unusually heavy snows.

Just exactly like climate scientists told us would happen if we heated up the planet.

When you understand the physics then you can make some fairly accurate predictions about how things are likely to play out.





Some people are ignorant of physics and the scientific method. It will be their loss when it affects them and they demand someone to do something.
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174 hours
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Quoting BobWallace:


Gosh, you're right. Some places are experiencing drought. And some places are flooding.

Just exactly like climate scientists told us would happen if we heated up the planet.

And you know what? Some places will have massive heat waves and other places will have unusually heavy snows.

Just exactly like climate scientists told us would happen if we heated up the planet.

When you understand the physics then you can make some fairly accurate predictions about how things are likely to play out.





I'm going to make a prediction that the earth's temp in decreasing and that will lead to some places getting droughts and other places getting flooding. Also while the overall temperature will go down some places will actually have record high temps while some have record cold temps. Of course you could just dismiss what I'm saying or perhaps you'd know I'm quoting from scientists in the 1960s and 1970s that believed "Global Cooling" was taking place and wanted to go as far as to paint in the ice caps black to help them melt faster to warm up the planet.
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NASA, you know, the rocket scientist folks, have put up an interesting short video.

Link

A look at the last 131 years in only 26 seconds.....
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Quoting BobWallace:


Well, good, you recognize the problem of melting permafrost and methyl hydrates. Lots of folks don't.

It does look like we're beginning to warm up to the point where amplifying forces are kicking in. And that will warm things up even faster.

Adapt? Now that's going to be quite the trick. Adapting to a much hotter climate in which most of our current food crops just won't grow.

I suppose some small numbers of us could move underground where temperatures will be tolerable and grow our food under artificial light.

That's a heck of a future to give our children and grandchildren, isn't it?


Ehh, it's all about the attitude. If anything happens, we could always populate Canada, Siberia, and Southern South America. You have to go where the food and water is. Folks could always grow food in their back yard and learn to do with less. The natives from around here chased their food into another continent, I don't see any historical records of them complainin about it.

There are global warming deniers that won't do anything until it's too late but that's their problem. If we must abandon cities in Texas and the like because there is no water then we must. People have been moving due to change (be it war or disaster) since the dawn of time, what makes us any more special.

The way I see it, I will take a prime spot of real estate while there is still time and my family could be successful for years to come because we adapted first.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
The truth is a commodity more priceless than gold ENSO. Here's one for ya ENSO, with your behaviors; life will give you one big karma gift when you least expect it. Hope you only need to get one of those gifts before you choose to change.
MAYBE A SWIFT KICK IN THE ARSE WOULD BE BETTER
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Mean trough is in the Great Lakes region. NE Caribbean & the US is in trouble till that changes.

The GFS ignores it thus far.
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Quoting stormchaser19:
is monday in the east coast, so, here is a poll.
When the NOAA NHC will put the yellow circle on the wave in mid-atlantic

a) 2:00 am (monday in 2 hour approximately)
b) 8:00 am
c) 2:00 pm
d) 8:00 pm




c)2:00 pm
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Mean trough is in the Great Lakes region. NE Caribbean & the US is in trouble till that changes.
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162 hours and 1008mb
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Quoting stormchaser19:
is monday in the east coast, so, here is a poll.
When the NOAA NHC will put the yellow circle on the wave in mid-atlantic

a) 2:00 am (monday in 2 hour approximately)
b) 8:00 am
c) 2:00 pm
d) 8:00 pm



A or B

hey guys
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The truth is a commodity more priceless than gold ENSO. Here's one for ya ENSO, with your behaviors; life will give you one big karma gift when you least expect it. Hope you only need to get one of those gifts before you choose to change.
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156 hours and 1009mb
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Quoting RussianWinter:


A drier hydroclimate where?

Some places are a bit short of water yet others are dealing with record flooding...


Gosh, you're right. Some places are experiencing drought. And some places are flooding.

Just exactly like climate scientists told us would happen if we heated up the planet.

And you know what? Some places will have massive heat waves and other places will have unusually heavy snows.

Just exactly like climate scientists told us would happen if we heated up the planet.

When you understand the physics then you can make some fairly accurate predictions about how things are likely to play out.



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Quoting wxchaser97:
144 hours


Notice where the trough is?

Should be NW from that point to N at some time.
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is monday in the east coast, so, here is a poll.
When the NOAA NHC will put the yellow circle on the wave in mid-atlantic

a) 2:00 am (monday in 2 hour approximately)
b) 8:00 am
c) 2:00 pm
d) 8:00 pm


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150 hours
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


A tad more north as it was closer to Trinidad & Tobago at 18z.
Going just a little farther north each run, is the cmc right?
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Quoting RussianWinter:


Yes, although I was raised pretty close to the pacific ocean. And in certain areas east of the mountain range, yes it does get cold and summers are pretty cool. For me it's the ideal climate.




...Never liked living in Miami. Hate the sun and it's strong UV rays here with a passion, I yearn for the cloudy and rainy days I saw as a kid.

I'll probably search for jobs somewhere in either Northern Europe or Southern Alaska.


Wow, when i think of Siberia i think of the Russian prison there. I watched a show on it, it looked pretty tough.. good luck to you on your job search
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting RussianWinter:


Never liked living in Miami. Hate the sun and it's strong UV rays here with a passion, I yearn for the cloudy and rainy days I saw as a kid.





Cloudy, rainy, cold days where you can tune up your body with food from the backyard.... Then get the heat of burning wood and a shot of homemade Vodka....
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The GFS is slowly trending north every time. It's only by an extremely small margin, but it is trending northwards.
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Qutoe #305. Jelloboy
"Noob means newbie -- you know since I'm old school and you didn't sign-up for nearly 5-years after I did. That means I rule.

Anyways you bore me.

On to the next point -- I charted the number of hurricanes from the year 2000 until the year 2005 and what I found was a huge increase in the number of storms. If we project these findings forward we find that based on my studies of a specific time frame and using those results to project future trends we should have around 115 named tropical systems in the Atlantic in 2012! Heads up people, you heard it first. So far we're only 4 storms in so I would expect a recording breaking Aug, Sep, Oct and Nov!"

Quoting pcola57:


I will see what you have to say and make my own opinions like I always have..
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Yes, 138 hours and 1006mb


A tad more north as it was closer to Trinidad & Tobago at 18z.
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The signs are all around us, although until both the poles are gone; some here will act like that's not the case. The science is conclusive and there is a MAJOR consensus among non-debunked, peer accredited climate scientists. With worldwide historical water sources rapidly disappearing, poles rapidly melting, and a rapidly warming world, we either come together and make big changes or we will face rapidly declining living conditions most everywhere for our future generations. My repeated use of the word rapidly is to drum home a point; we must do something about this now and quit IGNORING the science that screams, "Do something now, or else." But as Chucktown has told me before, "There is no will in America for it, and most just want to know if it's going to rain tomorrow." He's a meteorologist, and sadly, I believe him. So many will be "shocked" when this goes from bad to worse. And there's just no need for that to happen.
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144 hours
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144 hours:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
135 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14612

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.