Oil industry-funded "BEST" study finds global warming is real, manmade

By: Angela Fritz , 12:21 AM GMT on July 30, 2012

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The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) group is in the news again, surprising climate change skeptics with results from a new study that shows the earth has warmed 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, and that "essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases." Dr. Richard Muller, who heads the BEST team, now considers himself a "converted skeptic," which he wrote about in a New York Times op-ed on Saturday:

"Call me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I'm now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause."

Not only is the lead scientist of the project a former climate change skeptic, BEST itself is funded by the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, an organization that is rooted deep in the oil industry and the manufactured doubt industry. Two years ago a report found that the Koch brothers outspent Exxon Mobile in science disinformation at a whopping $48.5 million since 1997. Despite the special interest of their funders, BEST has made it clear, both on their website and in the results they've come to, that funding sources will not play a role in the results of their research, and that they "will be presented with full transparency."

Figure 1. The BEST surface temperature reconstruction (black) with a 95% confidence interval (grey). The overlying curve (red) is a curve fit to the temperature reconstruction based on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and volcanic activity.

Muller's research comes to essentially the same conclusion as similar well-known studies on the topic of global temperature rise. It attempts to address the question of attribution—how much has the globe warmed, and what is to blame? They found that solar activity relates very little to the fluctuations in temperature over the past 250 years, and that the warming is "almost entirely" due to greenhouse gas emissions, combined with some variability from volcanic eruptions. It's important to note that while Muller and his team found warming of 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, the IPCC did not find quite that much warming in their AR4 assessment.

BEST was in the news in October when they released results from their first independent study of surface temperature, which set out to address some common skeptic concerns about previous temperature reconstructions (e.g. NASA, NOAA, and HadCRU), including the urban heat island effect and the potential "cherry picking" of data. Both of these concerns were found to be non-issues. BEST concluded that the urban heat island effect does not contribute significantly to the land temperature rise. In fact, in their new study, they were able to reproduce the warming trend using nothing but rural stations.

BEST Part II doesn't necessarily bring anything new to the science as it currently exists; we've known for decades that the planet is warming and the cause is manmade. But in this case the scientific process played out the way it should: a skeptic of a certain scientific result took on the project, and was open and willing to accept whatever result the science gave him. We now have another batch of results in the group of well-known temperature reconstructions, funded by big-oil-interests, that tells us the planet is warming and that the cause is fossil fuel emissions.

Angela

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Quoting RussianWinter:


Dont worry, got ya covered

Link


End of the run

Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Where is CaribBoy? Looks like his rain is coming.


Not sure. I just got here. lol
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 671
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Whoa! WU isn't happy with me tonight. I can't link.

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=ge mglb&run=00&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


Dont worry, got ya covered

Link
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
Your right I believe it may spin up quickly in these regions..
Conditions are favorvable in these regions now...
If we watch these radars,they may well give us a heads up..
Thats my for what it's worth... :)
Barbados Link

Puerto Rico Link

Lesser Antillies Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the pouch going thru the antilles was so small..the models may not have recognized it. lessening shear under puerto rico.. that energy should move wnw.
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
Quoting wxchaser97:
Where can I find the CMC, I haven't found it?


Whoa! WU isn't happy with me tonight. I can't link.

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=ge mglb&run=00&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 671
Quoting BobWallace:


The best way for a scientist to become very rich and very famous would be to disprove global warming.

No, there were a few papers that predicted global cooling but the majority predicted warming. And the idea that the planet was cooling went away when we cleaned up our coal emissions and stopped pumping SO2 into the atmosphere, which was masking the ongoing heating.

The dinos did not dig up 4,558,273,000 billion tons of coal and 3,484.8 million tonnes of oil each year and burn it.

Forest growing close to the Arctic actually heat the planet. They reduce albedo to greater effect than the carbon they absorb.

Here's the problem, Jello. You don't know even the simple facts. Nothing to be ashamed of, unless you fail to educate yourself. Willful ignorance, now, that's shameful.

How about I give you a couple of starters?

NASA - the rocket science folks again. They've got a really easy to understand site all set up for you.

And Skeptical Science - they've put together a list of 173 common misconceptions about what's happening and why. You can run up and down the list checking out all sorts of things.



Oh OK, so forest make the tempature go up so I guess it's good for the sake of global warming that we deforest as much as possible- gotcha. Gonna go get my saw out and start cutting down some trees, just want to do my part!

Also any scientist that doesn't follow the global warming mandate is considered an outcast, has their funding cutoff and is called a George Bush supporter even though he's been out of office nearly 4-years. Believe it or not there are many scientists that disagree with man made global warming -- but they're ignored because it doesn't follow the PC agenda.

Also if we're just trading links here's a study from NASA -- you know the rocket people -- that might help debunk global warming predictions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Evening all. Looks like we might have a storm coming up. Hopefully it will not be strong and will give the islands that need it rain. After that who knows. Ideally it goes weakly into the SE US and give them some drought relief. Ok there's my wish cast. :)
Where is CaribBoy? Looks like his rain is coming.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Yes, the wave is looking healthier than I honestly expected it to, and despite the unfavorable shear.

Picked a sorry place to try to develop though, as it's now entering the John Hope dead zone.

Let's see if it bucks the trend...
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Quoting Jelloboy:


Hey man 97% of scientists are living off the government or some grant -- for the most part that need to find new problems or their funding gets cut off. In the 1960s and 1970s most scientists believed that "global cooling" was taking place, then in the 80s and 90s it became hip to say global warming so they flipped sides to that. Where do you get your 97% number from? Is it from the same UN report that listed scientists as signing on to their global warming report that in fact hundreds didn't sign-on to it at all? It's all about money, if it wasn't then why can you "buy" carbon credits? If it's so urgent why the loop-hole that transfers wealth from rich countries to poor countries so that the rich countries can continue to destroy the plant? Finally what exactly did the dinosaurs drive when the climate changed on them? What exactly "drove" us out of the last ice age? The earths temperature changes constantly. If it gets too warm guess what, the arctic forests grow larger and larger, absorb more c02 and the planet cools again. If it gets too cool the arctic forest retreat, more c02 is in the atmosphere and the earth warms. It's almost the earth is self healing mannnn. But of course there is no money in what I say so why listen.


The best way for a scientist to become very rich and very famous would be to disprove global warming.

No, there were a few papers that predicted global cooling but the majority predicted warming. And the idea that the planet was cooling went away when we cleaned up our coal emissions and stopped pumping SO2 into the atmosphere, which was masking the ongoing heating.

The dinos did not dig up 4,558,273,000 billion tons of coal and 3,484.8 million tonnes of oil each year and burn it.

Forest growing close to the Arctic actually heat the planet. They reduce albedo to greater effect than the carbon they absorb.

Here's the problem, Jello. You don't know even the simple facts. Nothing to be ashamed of, unless you fail to educate yourself. Willful ignorance, now, that's shameful.

How about I give you a couple of starters?

NASA - the rocket science folks again. They've got a really easy to understand site all set up for you.

And Skeptical Science - they've put together a list of 173 common misconceptions about what's happening and why. You can run up and down the list checking out all sorts of things.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From Mexico to Canada in 2 runs?

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 671
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Lotta turning going on there PCD.



Breathing decent, 20-30kts of shear though.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Birthmark:

Complete, unfounded nonsense.


Well said, you got me and completely changed my mind on the issue. Thanks for putting me in my place. Where do I send my guilt money to make the temperature go down, I just want to help.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormchaser19:
CMC run i'm still waiting
Where can I find the CMC, I haven't found it?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Evening all. Looks like we might have a storm coming up. Hopefully it will not be strong and will give the islands that need it rain. After that who knows. Ideally it goes weakly into the SE US and give them some drought relief. Ok there's my wish cast. :)


The islands (The virgin ones anyway) will get their rain. Apart from that, we don't know.
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
CMC run i'm still waiting
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jelloboy:


Hey man 97% of scientists are living off the government or some grant -- for the most part that need to find new problems or their funding gets cut off. In the 1960s and 1970s most scientists believed that "global cooling" was taking place, then in the 80s and 90s it became hip to say global warming so they flipped sides to that. Where do you get your 97% number from? Is it from the same UN report that listed scientists as signing on to their global warming report that in fact hundreds didn't sign-on to it at all? It's all about money, if it wasn't then why can you "buy" carbon credits? If it's so urgent why the loop-hole that transfers wealth from rich countries to poor countries so that the rich countries can continue to destroy the plant? Finally what exactly did the dinosaurs drive when the climate changed on them? What exactly "drove" us out of the last ice age? The earths temperature changes constantly. If it gets too warm guess what, the arctic forests grow larger and larger, absorb more c02 and the planet cools again. If it gets too cool the arctic forest retreat, more c02 is in the atmosphere and the earth warms. It's almost the earth is self healing mannnn. But of course there is no money in what I say so why listen.

Complete, unfounded nonsense.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
anyways thanks for posting the gfs runs.:)
Your welcome, the most part of the run was correct, just when it got to 250+ hours my computer wasn't loading the new run even though I refreshed each page.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting sunlinepr:
Bad, southern path hurricanes are dangerous...




That's not a hurricane....







...Yet
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
Evening all. Looks like we might have a storm coming up. Hopefully it will not be strong and will give the islands that need it rain. After that who knows. Ideally it goes weakly into the SE US and give them some drought relief. Ok there's my wish cast. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 671
Quoting 7544:
throw this run out the door wait for the next thanks for posting

Your welcome, this run still shows a storm forming and moving WNW just north of S.A. but this run dissipates and does not re-develop it like the other runs do.
Quoting cajunroach:
if the gfs picked it up this run-the euro should in the run tonite.
The gfs has had the system for some runs now, the euro has started to hint at a strong wave and should begin to show a storm, especially lock on when it forms.
Quoting JLPR2:
Well now, that was an interesting run and more importantly, the GFS is now more consistent.

I expect a yellow circle soon.

Its spin is getting stronger.


Yes, the gfs is now showing consistency and a yellow circle(20% imo) should be made sometime today.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting wxchaser97:
Ok so for some reason the gfs wasn't updating and I was posting an old run, the storm never does re-develop.
anyways thanks for posting the gfs runs.:)
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3958
Bad, hurricanes with a southern track are dangerous...

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9690
Quoting pcola57:
img src="">


Lotta turning going on there PCD.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
412. JLPR2
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And also invest 99L at some point later today.


If it develops more convection, then yes, I agree.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And also invest 99L at some point later today.


I'm betting against the invest. If anything a 10% chance circle at best.
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
sunlinepr you have mail.. :)
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Quoting JLPR2:
Well now, that was an interesting run and more importantly, the GFS is now more consistent.

I expect a yellow circle soon.

Its spin is getting stronger.



And also invest 99L at some point later today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well I noticed that on this run it last longer than the last and the last had it dissipating ESE or DR so now it dissipates SSW of Haiti not only that but the track is further west and north cause this one put it between north-central Cuba and Bahamas and the one before had it between Cuba Haiti and Bahamas I expect this to continue till it does not dissipate till landfall where ever it does and the track to be further W bound maybe track like Gustav and fay with it recurve like wilma in the GOM


I'm not sure a Wilma-like recurve is applicable in this situation, sir.
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
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406. JLPR2
Well now, that was an interesting run and more importantly, the GFS is now more consistent.

I expect a yellow circle soon.

Its spin is getting stronger.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
if the gfs picked it up this run-the euro should in the run tonite.
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
I'm out, for now, ENSO. :) No post of verifiable science disproving man driven GW from jelloboy? Shocked I tell you, shocked. Talk to you ladies and gents tomorrow.
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403. 7544
throw this run out the door wait for the next thanks for posting
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
well I noticed that on this run it last longer than the last and the last had it dissipating ESE or DR so now it dissipates SSW of Haiti not only that but the track is further west and north cause this one put it between north-central Cuba and Bahamas and the one before had it between Cuba Haiti and Bahamas I expect this to continue till it does not dissipate till landfall where ever it does and the track to be further W bound maybe track like Gustav and fay with it recurve like wilma in the GOM
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
Ok so for some reason the gfs wasn't updating and I was posting an old run, the storm never does re-develop.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting Tribucanes:
Some like Jelloboy have no desire at all for truth. They choose to distort truth or flat out ignore it all together. Truth doesn't care if you believe in it or not. It simply is. Jelloboy either has a very real agenda or is just lost due to his choice to not seek. 97% of climate scientists who are credited and have worked tirelessly to come to this verifiable truth, or those with no science to provide that is verifiable at all; who's really believable here Jelloboy? Post your verifiable science, please. Or just type yawn again because you can't.


Hey man 97% of scientists are living off the government or some grant -- for the most part that need to find new problems or their funding gets cut off. In the 1960s and 1970s most scientists believed that "global cooling" was taking place, then in the 80s and 90s it became hip to say global warming so they flipped sides to that. Where do you get your 97% number from? Is it from the same UN report that listed scientists as signing on to their global warming report that in fact hundreds didn't sign-on to it at all? It's all about money, if it wasn't then why can you "buy" carbon credits? If it's so urgent why the loop-hole that transfers wealth from rich countries to poor countries so that the rich countries can continue to destroy the plant? Finally what exactly did the dinosaurs drive when the climate changed on them? What exactly "drove" us out of the last ice age? The earths temperature changes constantly. If it gets too warm guess what, the arctic forests grow larger and larger, absorb more c02 and the planet cools again. If it gets too cool the arctic forest retreat, more c02 is in the atmosphere and the earth warms. It's almost the earth is self healing mannnn. But of course there is no money in what I say so why listen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
399. flsky
Quoting wxchaser97:
324 hours and its inland

Yikes! See? Fun stuff....
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Quoting wxchaser97:
204 hours and it is dissipating.


204 hours is so far, maybe survives the hostile caribbean
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Quoting wxchaser97:
204 hours and it is dissipating.


With forecast light winds aloft I would speculate that conclusion. COL areas are typically where cyclones flourish.
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324 hours and its inland
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9690
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Well,I spoke too soon about surviving the graveyard.
All it takes is one storm north of the Caribbean a la Floyd or Andrew.





Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
Quoting wxchaser97:
It is gone totally not even a re-develop near FL so far.

I spoke too soon at 300 hours it's re-developed south of FL.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
000
FXUS62 KMFL 282348 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
ISSUED 136 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012


DISCUSSION...
THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. HAS SEPARATED
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER S FLA THE PAST FEW DAYS
INTO TWO SEPARATE CELLS. ONE CELL OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE OTHER OVER THE ATLC. S FLA WILL BE IN A
COL AREA BETWEEN THE CELLS
...AN AREA OF LIGHT WINDS ALOFT ALONG WITH
A SLOW INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. THE DRY SUBSIDENT LAYER OVER S FLA
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THIS PATTERN CHANGES
VERY LITTLE IN THE SHORT AND LONG TERM THOUGH SOME FLUCTUATION OF
THE POSITIONING OF THE 2 HIGH PRESSURE CELLS AND THE COL MAY OCCUR.
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390. flsky
Quoting wxchaser97:
204 hours and it is dissipating.

That would be the ideal situation, but, in the meantime, it gives us something to speculate about.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
The natural indicators you mention don't favor cooling. The solar cycle is heading upward, volcanism tends to cool the globe (since there haven't been any significant volcanic eruptions recently this would not favor cooling), and orbital cycles are on the scale of tens of thousands of years.

Solar Activity Chart



Long term solar activity has been dropping. You're looking at the short term, about 11 year cycle.

Link

Recent warming has likely been masked by a downward solar cycle and La Nina conditions. Now with the short term solar cycle on the rise and El Nino threatening a return we should see some toasty weather over the next few years.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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