Oil industry-funded "BEST" study finds global warming is real, manmade

By: Angela Fritz , 12:21 AM GMT on July 30, 2012

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The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) group is in the news again, surprising climate change skeptics with results from a new study that shows the earth has warmed 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, and that "essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases." Dr. Richard Muller, who heads the BEST team, now considers himself a "converted skeptic," which he wrote about in a New York Times op-ed on Saturday:

"Call me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I'm now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause."

Not only is the lead scientist of the project a former climate change skeptic, BEST itself is funded by the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, an organization that is rooted deep in the oil industry and the manufactured doubt industry. Two years ago a report found that the Koch brothers outspent Exxon Mobile in science disinformation at a whopping $48.5 million since 1997. Despite the special interest of their funders, BEST has made it clear, both on their website and in the results they've come to, that funding sources will not play a role in the results of their research, and that they "will be presented with full transparency."

Figure 1. The BEST surface temperature reconstruction (black) with a 95% confidence interval (grey). The overlying curve (red) is a curve fit to the temperature reconstruction based on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and volcanic activity.

Muller's research comes to essentially the same conclusion as similar well-known studies on the topic of global temperature rise. It attempts to address the question of attribution—how much has the globe warmed, and what is to blame? They found that solar activity relates very little to the fluctuations in temperature over the past 250 years, and that the warming is "almost entirely" due to greenhouse gas emissions, combined with some variability from volcanic eruptions. It's important to note that while Muller and his team found warming of 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, the IPCC did not find quite that much warming in their AR4 assessment.

BEST was in the news in October when they released results from their first independent study of surface temperature, which set out to address some common skeptic concerns about previous temperature reconstructions (e.g. NASA, NOAA, and HadCRU), including the urban heat island effect and the potential "cherry picking" of data. Both of these concerns were found to be non-issues. BEST concluded that the urban heat island effect does not contribute significantly to the land temperature rise. In fact, in their new study, they were able to reproduce the warming trend using nothing but rural stations.

BEST Part II doesn't necessarily bring anything new to the science as it currently exists; we've known for decades that the planet is warming and the cause is manmade. But in this case the scientific process played out the way it should: a skeptic of a certain scientific result took on the project, and was open and willing to accept whatever result the science gave him. We now have another batch of results in the group of well-known temperature reconstructions, funded by big-oil-interests, that tells us the planet is warming and that the cause is fossil fuel emissions.

Angela

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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Well, I figure that's a TD or TS even by the time you adjust for the CMC over-playing it...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1501
Quoting stormchaser19:
CMC at 138 , very far to north of GFS
the dilemma of debby will come



CMC is further north because it develops it faster than any other model. Right?
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
That wave is pretty far to the S in the ITCZ....so i can see why it buries it in SA. The GFS is showing a very strong HP as well. I really think the wave train over Africa will be the ones to watch for significant development over the coming weeks. I figure 2 weeks and the lid comes off.
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CMC at 138 , very far to north of GFS
the dilemma of debby will come

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Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
For those that didn't check it out yet...posted another detailed tropical Atlantic blog update back in the afternoon covering both tropical waves of interest tonight. Both waves are covered in paragraphs P8 and P9 of that post.

The reason I see the wave in paragraph P8 (the blob near the Antilles) hasn't developed because it is crashing into the less favorable inverted upper trough I described in that same paragraph. The dry air around the Antilles blob is also more intense than the dry air with the east Atlantic disturbance...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
Quoting JLPR2:
I'm off to bed, I'll leave the all nighter for when we have an invest. XD

'Night!
Good night JLPR2, could see the invest in the next day or two if the wave organizes.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
Quoting RussianWinter:


Probably both.


The vort max is actually on the south side of the blob at the moment, so I doubt it hits Haiti directly.

That is, they will probably get some rain, but at the moment I think the center misses them.

Euro does not like it either,much like the GFS, but then again, the Euro never quite struck me as being particularly good with "borderline" system development.

It "looks" like it should have at least initialized on a model, but it just didn't do anything on GFS or Euro, so I guess that either says no development, or it says nothing; Garbage in, garbage out.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1501
Quoting ENSO2012:
Kori, you're gonna stick around for the Euro coming out at the top of the hour? I will; it promises to be good!


Probably. I don't have to be at work until 1.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119

NDBC
Location: 16.333N 63.5W
07/30/2012 0450 UTC
Winds: NE (50°) at 19.4 kts gusting to 23.3
Significant Wave Height: 5.9 ft
Dominant Wave period: 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.91 in and falling
Air Temperature: 83.5 °F
Dew Point: 78.6 °F
Water Temperature: 84.0 °F
Station 42060
NDBC
Location: 16.333N 63.5W
07/30/2012 0450 UTC
Winds: NE (50°) at 19.4 kts gusting to 23.3
Significant Wave Height: 5.9 ft
Dominant Wave period: 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.91 in and falling
Air Temperature: 83.5 °F
Dew Point: 78.6 °F
Water Temperature: 84.0 °F


From a ship in windward island
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477. JLPR2
I'm off to bed, I'll leave the all nighter for when we have an invest. XD

'Night!
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I've been using this site for model runs (stopped using NOAA's MAG site that crashes a lot):

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


I've noticed how the CMC model has an aggressive initialization of the surface pressure field of our E Atlantic tropical disturbance...so perhaps it is not surprising it is the most bullish in suggesting tropical cyclone formation. The CMC also suggests a WNW track to pass just N of the Lesser Antilles and just N of the Bahamas....

The GFS is the only other model on that website that shows development..and it develops it later & slower...and tracks it further south thru the Lesser Antilles into the Caribbean. Interestingly...the GFS has weak to no initialization of this system in its surface pressure field.

Which of the two models has better initialization of this system? That's the model that I would be going with...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
Quoting KoritheMan:
Sorry, but... no. The 0z GFS run seems bogus. Development seems fine, but since it moves across Venezuela and subsequently dissipates, most likely it will not recurve toward Canada like the model is indicating. A tropical cyclone dying over the Greater Antilles ends up recurving? Don't buy it.

Plus, that track seems a little dubious anyway for a storm that's moving across South America.
I mean the idea of it taking a southern route hugging the Northeast Coast of South America is reasonable, especially depending on the strength of the ridge, where it gets hairy is does it make landfall over Haiti and the circulation gets disrupted? After that it's all guesswork by the GFS where this goes because a system redeveloping and recurving doesn't seem plausible.
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Quoting pcola57:
Your right I believe it may spin up quickly in these regions..
Conditions are favorvable in these regions now...
If we watch these radars,they may well give us a heads up..
Thats my for what it's worth... :)
Barbados

Puerto Rico

Lesser Antillies


Not much there on radar, as the infrared presentation seems like it's ahead of the actual rain storms development.

There is good vorticity with the convection though.

Interesting feature nonetheless.

GFS again fails to initialize it.

Canadian rounds the end of Cuba and takes it into the panhandle of Florida as a disorganized blob of storms, apparently not even a TD, and at any rate, much farther north than I thought yesterday.

I thought maybe the Yucatan if that, but now the model is hooking it hard...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1501
Quoting Jelloboy:


Oh OK, so forest make the tempature go up so I guess it's good for the sake of global warming that we deforest as much as possible- gotcha. Gonna go get my saw out and start cutting down some trees, just want to do my part!

Also any scientist that doesn't follow the global warming mandate is considered an outcast, has their funding cutoff and is called a George Bush supporter even though he's been out of office nearly 4-years. Believe it or not there are many scientists that disagree with man made global warming -- but they're ignored because it doesn't follow the PC agenda.

Also if we're just trading links here's a study from NASA -- you know the rocket people -- that might help debunk global warming predictions.


I'm sure that you don't know who Roy Spencer is and about the reputation of the journal Remote Sensing. That's probably why you aren't suspicious of this claim.

Roy has tried to publish some real junk over the years. He's got a pretty poor reputation as a scientist.

The wise thing would be to hold off on believing the claims until more knowledgeable scientists plow through the data.

Also, scientist are judged by other scientists on the quality of the data they produce, not on what they believe. The scientists who get the boot are ones who try to use crappy data to prove a point they want to make.

Remember the Korean scientist who claimed that he had cloned a human but had actually faked his data? Link

How about the scientist who produced all sorts of phony data re: red wine? Link

Spencer has come close to joining their ranks. He's published before in Remote Sensing. One very flawed paper of his caused the editor to resign in disgrace for allowing it through.

Other scientists are suspicious of Spenser's studies. They've asked to see his raw data, which is common practice. So far Spencer has put them off for over two years.

Just thought you'd like to know....
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Quoting RussianWinter:


When is the ASCAT for this blob comin?


Someone can post it if available.... Although it not as orgnized as those near Africa...

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
Quoting Jelloboy:


Well said, you got me and completely changed my mind on the issue. Thanks for putting me in my place. Where do I send my guilt money to make the temperature go down, I just want to help.

I think that you'd be better served by reading the science before criticizing it. Your previous post shows a distinct lack of familiarity with the science of AGW in particular, and science generally.

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Quoting KoritheMan:
Sorry, but... no. The 0z GFS run seems bogus. Development seems fine, but since it moves across Venezuela and subsequently dissipates, most likely it will not recurve toward Canada like the model is indicating. A tropical cyclone dying over the Greater Antilles ends up recurving? Don't buy it.
I was really confused with the last part of the run since previous runs had it re-develop near FL and then either go to the GOM or head inland. At least it develops the storm but the rest needs to be ignored.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
Women Butterfly 100m World record USA
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
Quoting RussianWinter:


Probably both.
Maybe, but I just had another thought, increase in trade winds caused by a strengthening ridge in the Atlantic.
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Quoting ENSO2012:


Eso se llama el ''OJO'' de un ciclon por si no lo sabias ya. Hueco de aire seco, ni hueco de aire seco.

Seriously, dude? It must have been a joke, right, bro?

-______-.


Coño pero con usted va a ver que sacarlo de el blog, deje de confrontar a la gente aqui, se lo digo como consejo, ya nadie lo quiere aqui por estar de indeseable
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sorry, but... no. The 0z GFS run seems bogus. Development seems fine, but since it moves across Venezuela and subsequently dissipates, most likely it will not recurve toward Canada like the model is indicating. A tropical cyclone dying over the Greater Antilles ends up recurving? Don't buy it.

Plus, that track seems a little dubious anyway for a storm that's moving across South America.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I don't get it, where is the shear that kills it off? Or is it land interaction with Haiti that kills it?






I hope it dries out before it gets near Haiti. :(
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
Quoting sunlinepr:
And the blob goes on....





When is the ASCAT for this blob comin?
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
Look at the raw T#
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 984.5mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.8 5.9
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
Quoting JLPR2:
I really hope that's a dry spot.



You can tell by the convective pattern that it's not; the outer core would have a dry slot carving a cyclonic path into the center.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
456. JLPR2
Quoting ENSO2012:


Eso se llama el ''OJO'' de un ciclon por si no lo sabias ya. Hueco de aire seco, ni hueco de aire seco.

Seriously, dude? It must have been a joke, right, bro?

-______-.


You need to read more carefully I wrote hope, not is, I'm well aware it is most likely a ragged eye.
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And the blob goes on....



Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
Another view of Saola:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I don't get it, where is the shear that kills it off? Or is it land interaction with Haiti that kills it?






Probably both.
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
westernmob: How much did Leif Erikson and his fellow Earth compadres contribute to GW during the last warm period?

I'm curious, do you really wanna know? Or was that just a rhetorical question?
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Quoting JLPR2:
I really hope that's a dry spot.


I think that is an eye forming, Saola is forecasted to be a cat3 equivalent typhoon.
WV image:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
I don't get it, where is the shear that kills it off? Or is it land interaction with Haiti that kills it?




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Quoting RussianWinter:



That's not a hurricane....







...Yet


Those waves out of Africa look like Invests, both of them...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
Quoting ENSO2012:



Evening, ma'am. What is showing?


Haven't seen it yet. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Whoa! WU isn't happy with me tonight. I can't link.

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=ge mglb&run=00&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Quoting RussianWinter:


Dont worry, got ya covered

Link

Thanks both of you.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
444. JLPR2
I really hope that's a dry spot.

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Quoting pcola57:
sunlinepr you have mail.. :)


Ready...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
Quoting RussianWinter:


Dont worry, got ya covered

Link


Thanks! :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
The TWO should be interesting.



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Quoting RussianWinter:


Dont worry, got ya covered

Link


End of the run

Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.