Oil industry-funded "BEST" study finds global warming is real, manmade

By: Angela Fritz , 12:21 AM GMT on July 30, 2012

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The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) group is in the news again, surprising climate change skeptics with results from a new study that shows the earth has warmed 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, and that "essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases." Dr. Richard Muller, who heads the BEST team, now considers himself a "converted skeptic," which he wrote about in a New York Times op-ed on Saturday:

"Call me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I'm now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause."

Not only is the lead scientist of the project a former climate change skeptic, BEST itself is funded by the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, an organization that is rooted deep in the oil industry and the manufactured doubt industry. Two years ago a report found that the Koch brothers outspent Exxon Mobile in science disinformation at a whopping $48.5 million since 1997. Despite the special interest of their funders, BEST has made it clear, both on their website and in the results they've come to, that funding sources will not play a role in the results of their research, and that they "will be presented with full transparency."

Figure 1. The BEST surface temperature reconstruction (black) with a 95% confidence interval (grey). The overlying curve (red) is a curve fit to the temperature reconstruction based on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and volcanic activity.

Muller's research comes to essentially the same conclusion as similar well-known studies on the topic of global temperature rise. It attempts to address the question of attribution—how much has the globe warmed, and what is to blame? They found that solar activity relates very little to the fluctuations in temperature over the past 250 years, and that the warming is "almost entirely" due to greenhouse gas emissions, combined with some variability from volcanic eruptions. It's important to note that while Muller and his team found warming of 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, the IPCC did not find quite that much warming in their AR4 assessment.

BEST was in the news in October when they released results from their first independent study of surface temperature, which set out to address some common skeptic concerns about previous temperature reconstructions (e.g. NASA, NOAA, and HadCRU), including the urban heat island effect and the potential "cherry picking" of data. Both of these concerns were found to be non-issues. BEST concluded that the urban heat island effect does not contribute significantly to the land temperature rise. In fact, in their new study, they were able to reproduce the warming trend using nothing but rural stations.

BEST Part II doesn't necessarily bring anything new to the science as it currently exists; we've known for decades that the planet is warming and the cause is manmade. But in this case the scientific process played out the way it should: a skeptic of a certain scientific result took on the project, and was open and willing to accept whatever result the science gave him. We now have another batch of results in the group of well-known temperature reconstructions, funded by big-oil-interests, that tells us the planet is warming and that the cause is fossil fuel emissions.

Angela

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Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

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538. MississippiWx
5:58 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:
Well, this guy is certainly going to prepare a blog tomorrow.


Why are you going to prepare it Tuesday. Why not today? :-)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
536. GTcooliebai
5:57 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Post 529 beat me to it.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
535. xtremeweathertracker
5:57 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting ENSO2012:



What a piece of ****. You really have to have a loose screw to buy into what the CMC is depicting. At any rate, King Euro is coming up next. let see what he reveals!

What is your problem!!!???
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 572
534. KoritheMan
5:57 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Well, this guy is certainly going to prepare a blog tomorrow.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21198
533. GTcooliebai
5:56 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
532. sunlinepr
5:56 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
530. MississippiWx
5:56 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
524.

Karma sucks. You've got it coming to you one day and I wish I could be there to see it in person.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
529. wxchaser97
5:56 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
NHC map:


My map:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
527. trHUrrIXC5MMX
5:56 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
northeast big hurricane with 974MB


close by or Irene-like hurricane which one?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
526. xtremeweathertracker
5:55 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 572
525. AllStar17
5:55 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
The important thing before speculating on a potential track of this system is to first get development - which is certainly possible. There is LOTS of time to monitor this area and whatever it becomes before it threatens any land.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
523. NCHurricane2009
5:54 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
I am also gratified by the 2 AM TWO...because the NHC has finally called this a tropical wave. I've been calling this a tropical wave for my last three blog posts...but for everyday the NHC wasn't calling it one...I was getting less confident it was a t-wave in the first place...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
522. sunlinepr
5:54 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
521. xtremeweathertracker
5:54 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 572
520. KoritheMan
5:54 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21198
519. MississippiWx
5:54 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Probably a bad thing that these models are trying to recurve it so early in the process. Probably means that it won't happen...lol.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
518. stormchaser19
5:54 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWAR
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
515. stormchaser19
5:53 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
People we have a yellow circle!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1yes
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
514. NCHurricane2009
5:52 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
finally here

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT
...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Woooohoooo!!! We WUbloggers beat them too it though..by watching it earlier on....
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
512. wxchaser97
5:52 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:
My take on the tropics right now:

I called it on post 220, not trying to brag, I just took an educated guess and got it right.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 300549
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
511. AtHomeInTX
5:52 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
East coast?


Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
509. allancalderini
5:52 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
its in 20 here comes Ernesto.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
508. NCHurricane2009
5:51 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting MississippiWx:
Wow. Daniel is still in here. Way to go, WU Admin.


What do ya mean? Daniel the E-pac hurricane's remnants? I also think the remnants of Karen '07 are still somewhere out there...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
507. MississippiWx
5:51 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


Drew, if it weren't for all of my blog posts, I wouldn't give two ***** if I got banned. What's the point when I can just... make a new account?


True dat, Kori. I guess it's useless to get banned.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
506. xtremeweathertracker
5:51 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 572
505. AllStar17
5:50 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
20%.

Had to know Stewart would highlight it.

Look for an invest declaration soon.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
504. robert88
5:50 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
It will also be interesting to see if the trade winds will keep these waves in check with a developing weak El Nino on the horizon. The Caribbean may not be favorable for a long time. I feel it will be a factor...but nothing extreme. El Nino started coming on a little too late to really knock the 2012 season out of business imo.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
503. trHUrrIXC5MMX
5:50 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
finally here

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT
...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
502. sunlinepr
5:50 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
GFS vs. CMC

A storm S or a Hurricane N

If we average, both paths I will have to get the storm shutters installed...

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
501. KoritheMan
5:50 AM GMT on July 30, 2012
Quoting MississippiWx:
Wow. Daniel is still in here. Way to go, WU Admin.



Drew, if it weren't for all of my blog posts, I wouldn't give two ***** if I got banned. What's the point when I can just... make a new account?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21198
Wow. Daniel is still in here. Way to go, WU Admin.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
One thing to consider is the large circulation in association with the system. A center could theoretically consolidate anywhere within the gyre, which would have big implications on the track.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21198
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


CMC is further north because it develops it faster than any other model. Right?


Yes, is possible due cmc is develops a stronger system than the gfs, but i think cmc is so far to the north and GFS is little to the south,
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


CMC is further north because it develops it faster than any other model. Right?


Presumably it's due to the big upper low to the north. Both the GFS and CMC initialize the low, and even though the latter is weaker with the presentation of the vortex, there appears to still be enough push to pull it northward.

So to answer your question, yes.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21198
It has been 11 minutes since the EPAC TWO is out.That means circle comming.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
Tropical Storm ‘Gener’ spawns floods nationwide

Rains dumped by Tropical Storm “Gener” (international name: Saola) across the country flooded communities, swelled rivers, triggered landslides, damaged crops and roads, and canceled domestic flights as it moved toward northern Luzon.
A man drowned in Antique on Saturday, while more than a thousand people were evacuated in Negros Occidental and Maguindanao due to flooding.
Rough seas in Cebu province have forced boats to cancel their trips over the past two days.
In Metro Manila, authorities advised local government units on Sunday to evacuate residents near the Tullahan River because the water in La Mesa Dam was about to breach the spilling level. Excess water from the dam drains into the river that snakes through Quezon, Caloocan, Valenzuela and Navotas cities.
As of 4 p.m. Sunday, Gener was spotted 380 kilometers east of Aparri, Cagayan, with peak winds of 95 km per hour near the center and gustiness of up to 120 kph, said the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa). It was moving north-northwest at 15 kph.
Public storm signal warnings were hoisted over portions of northern Luzon as Gener, whose band of clouds has a diameter of 600 km, slightly intensified as it crept toward the country’s northern tip.
The Pagasa placed Cagayan, including Calayan and Babuyan groups of islands, and the Batanes Group of Islands under Storm Signal No. 2. It said sustained winds of 60 kph to 100 kph were expected in the province until today.
Any form of sea travel in the affected areas would be risky, the agency said as it reminded residents living in coastal areas to be on alert for big waves and storm surges.
Storm Signal No. 1 was hoisted over the provinces of Isabela, Kalinga and Apayao, as winds of 30 to 60 kph were expected to last until Tuesday.
The weather bureau advised against traveling on small seacraft and fishing boats.
The rest of Luzon and the Visayas will experience cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms, while Mindanao will be cloudy and may have isolated rain showers and thunderstorms.
Moderate to strong winds blowing from the southwest will prevail over southern Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao while winds from the northeast to northwest will prevail over the rest of Luzon. Coastal waters in these areas will be moderate to rough.
Pagasa warned residents in low-lying and mountainous areas against flash floods and landslides as heavy to intense rainfall was expected.
Gener is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon, bring rains over southern Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao.
At Ninoy Aquino International Airport, 17 domestic flights, mostly to Caticlan, Aklan, and mostly morning flights were canceled Sunday due to bad weather.
At Terminal 3, nine Cebu Pacific flights to and from Caticlan, the gateway to the resort island of Boracay, were canceled, according to an advisory issued by the Manila International Airport Authority at 2:30 p.m.
An Air Philippines flight from Manila to Caticlan and back was also canceled, along with two Cebu Pacific flights to and from Legazpi City and San Jose, Occidental Mindoro, and a Zest Air flight to and from Legazpi.
In Isabela, the provincial government has set aside funds to provide fishermen, especially those in coastal towns facing the Pacific Ocean, with cash assistance from July 29 to July 31.
Governor Faustino Dy III said P250-P300 cash was allotted a day to each of about 500 fishermen in the towns of Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan and Dinapigue.
“It is as if we were buying what they would have caught, so they would not go out to sea while the waters are rough and dangerous,” he said.
In Central Luzon, the Pampanga River Basin’s Flood Forecasting and Warning Center said flooding was possible in communities along the Pampanga River from Nueva Ecija to Pampanga.
Josefina Timoteo, regional director of the Office of Civil Defense (OCD), said heavy rains in Bulacan on Saturday night caused flooding in at least seven villages in San Miguel town. On Sunday morning, however, the floodwaters, which reached up to 2 feet, started to recede, she said.
Timoteo said operators of the Bustos Dam in Bulacan began releasing minimal volumes of water due to heavy rains.
In Occidental Mindoro, heavy rains caused landslides and massive flooding on Sunday.
Four sections of the 22-kilometer Mindoro West Coastal Road were rendered impassable due to road damage, provincial administrator Mariano Montales said.
Montales, quoting disaster authorities, said the rainfall exceeded 25 millimeters per hour, causing waist-deep floods on Pandan Island in Sablayan town and in Paluan town.
As of 1 p.m., Montales said residents were being evacuated.
“We don’t have reports of any casualty yet, but the rains damaged crops,” he said.
Local authorities ordered a preemptive evacuation of 60 families from Barangay (village) Burgos in Rodriguez, Rizal, early Sunday but they were allowed to return home at 1:30 p.m., according to the Regional Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council.
In Antique, Ronald Necor, 33, drowned on Saturday after he was swept by strong currents in the Paliwan River in Bugasong town, according to the OCD in Western Visayas.
In Negros Occidental, a total of 238 families, or about 1,000 people, have been evacuated in Bago City and Hinoba-an town since Friday evening due to flooding.
Small landslides were reported in three barangays in Tigbauan town in Iloilo last week.
In Cebu, rough seas forced some vessels to return to their ports of origin, while others canceled their trips on Saturday and Sunday, stranding passengers.
Trips of the Cebu-based Starcraft vessels of Sea Highway Carrier Inc., which ply the Cebu-Bohol route, were canceled Sunday.
Clemer Lines has suspended all trips to Getafe since Sunday morning.
The MV Jun Mar 2, which serves the Camotes-Danao City route, and Cokaliong Shipping Lines’ noon trip for Palompon, Leyte, also canceled their trips.
An OceanJet 5 fast craft carrying 197 passengers and 13 crew from Tagbilaran City in Bohol ran aground as it approached the south entrance of Mactan Channel at past 8 p.m. on Saturday.
When a sister vessel, OceanJet 6, responded to rescue the passengers, it also ran aground on Shell Island, according to Punzalan. It went back to Pier 1 by itself while OceanJet 5 was towed by the tugboat Metro Tug 5 back to Pier 1.
In Maguindanao, 14 villages in at least three towns were submerged by floodwaters that swelled rivers draining into the Liguasan Marsh, the OCD in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) said Sunday.
The affected towns include Kabuntalan, Northern Kabuntalan and Rajah Buayan, said OCD-ARMM Director Loreto Rirao.
“There are no reports yet of mass evacuation, but we are constantly monitoring the situation,” Rirao said.
He was referring to the inundated villages of Lower Taviran, Gambar, Butilen, Katidtuan and Pagalungan, all in Kabuntalan; Panadtabanan, Pidsandawan and Malibpoloc, in Rajah Buayan; and Montay, Tumaginting, Guiawa, Sabaken, Kapinpilan and Libungan, all in Northern Kabuntalan.
Initial reports from the agriculture department showed that some 40 percent of Buayan corn and rice crops had been damaged.
Rajah Buayan Mayor Jacob Ampatuan said a portion of the Liguasan Marsh within his municipality “that used to be visible has been submerged 3 to 5 feet deep.
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Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
wow two blue colors here!

A part of me doesn't like this product. There are way too many spurious purple shadings that show up. For example...what's with the purple shading off the Carolinas off of Louisiana?
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
‘Gener’ continues to threaten N. Luzon, storm signals still up in 7 areas – Pagasa

MANILA, Philippines – Seven areas remained under storm signals as tropical storm “Gener” continued to “endanger” extreme northern Luzon, the state weather bureau said on Monday.
Public storm warning signal number 2 was still up in Cagayan, Calayan Group of Island, Babuyan Group of Island and Batanes Group of Island while public storm signal number 1 remained in Isabela, Kalinga and Apayao, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said.
As of10:00a.m., the center of tropical storm”Gener” was seen 360 kilometers east northeast of Aparri, Cagayan or 290 kilometers east southeast of Basco, Batanes, with maximum sustained winds of 105 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 135 kph. It was moving north northwest at 11kph.
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas were alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal number 2 were alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.
Tropical storm “Gener” is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains and moderate to strong winds over Luzon and Visayas especially the western section, Pagasa said,
Estimated rainfall amount is from 10 – 20 mm per hour (heavy – intense) within the 700 km diameter of the tropical storm.
Fishing boats and other small seacrafts were advised not to venture out into the seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon, Visayas and eastern seaboard of Mindanao due to the combined effect of tropical storm “Gener” and the southwest monsoon.
“Gener” was forecast to be 210 km East Northeast of Basco, Batanes by Tuesday morning; 340 km North of Basco, Batanes by Wednesday morning and 530 km NNW of Basco Batanes outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Thursday morning.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Well, I figure that's a TD or TS even by the time you adjust for the CMC over-playing it...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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