Oil industry-funded "BEST" study finds global warming is real, manmade

By: Angela Fritz , 12:21 AM GMT on July 30, 2012

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The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) group is in the news again, surprising climate change skeptics with results from a new study that shows the earth has warmed 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, and that "essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases." Dr. Richard Muller, who heads the BEST team, now considers himself a "converted skeptic," which he wrote about in a New York Times op-ed on Saturday:

"Call me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I'm now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause."

Not only is the lead scientist of the project a former climate change skeptic, BEST itself is funded by the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, an organization that is rooted deep in the oil industry and the manufactured doubt industry. Two years ago a report found that the Koch brothers outspent Exxon Mobile in science disinformation at a whopping $48.5 million since 1997. Despite the special interest of their funders, BEST has made it clear, both on their website and in the results they've come to, that funding sources will not play a role in the results of their research, and that they "will be presented with full transparency."

Figure 1. The BEST surface temperature reconstruction (black) with a 95% confidence interval (grey). The overlying curve (red) is a curve fit to the temperature reconstruction based on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and volcanic activity.

Muller's research comes to essentially the same conclusion as similar well-known studies on the topic of global temperature rise. It attempts to address the question of attribution—how much has the globe warmed, and what is to blame? They found that solar activity relates very little to the fluctuations in temperature over the past 250 years, and that the warming is "almost entirely" due to greenhouse gas emissions, combined with some variability from volcanic eruptions. It's important to note that while Muller and his team found warming of 2.5 °F over the past 250 years, and 1.5 °F over the past fifty years, the IPCC did not find quite that much warming in their AR4 assessment.

BEST was in the news in October when they released results from their first independent study of surface temperature, which set out to address some common skeptic concerns about previous temperature reconstructions (e.g. NASA, NOAA, and HadCRU), including the urban heat island effect and the potential "cherry picking" of data. Both of these concerns were found to be non-issues. BEST concluded that the urban heat island effect does not contribute significantly to the land temperature rise. In fact, in their new study, they were able to reproduce the warming trend using nothing but rural stations.

BEST Part II doesn't necessarily bring anything new to the science as it currently exists; we've known for decades that the planet is warming and the cause is manmade. But in this case the scientific process played out the way it should: a skeptic of a certain scientific result took on the project, and was open and willing to accept whatever result the science gave him. We now have another batch of results in the group of well-known temperature reconstructions, funded by big-oil-interests, that tells us the planet is warming and that the cause is fossil fuel emissions.

Angela

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Off to bed..G'night folks.. :)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just a reminder...A closed isobar does not represent a closed low. When we have several closed isobars, then you can take it to the bank that you have a closed low.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Euro 72 HRS....Closed LOW???

The Euro seems to be the weakest in initializing this system in its surface pressure fields...the CMC most aggressive...so that's maybe why it takes the Euro 3-days out before it even registers a closed isobar...

Why on earth do all the models not represent the initial atmosphere (0-hour) exactly the same? That's ridiculous...but I am sure there is a reason behind that...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
XX/INV/99L
MARK
10.05N/35.36W
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Quoting allancalderini:
I need to say that you are one of the sweetest blogger I had met in here thanks for the likes.:)


Thank you Allan and all. I enjoy all of you and learning from y'all. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
Quoting allancalderini:
I need to say that you are one of the sweetest blogger I had met in here thanks for the likes.:)


Amen!
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
581. SLU
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

This Invest is the most dangerous of the 2012 season so far IMO. Its further out in the Atlantic (more time to develop). It is the first tropical wave to successfully fight off Saharan dry air (thanks to warm core upper ridge over itself that is ventilating the system and allowing for lower atmo lift/t-storms). And the jet stream seems too far north to pick this system up such that it could head for land...

One negative for this system is it seems broadly-organized...it doesn't yet have a tight low pressure center for all the t-storm activity to focus around.


Yep.. the first real "big one" for the season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7885
Farthest north solution at 120 hours:

BAMD 11.1N 43.3W 11.9N 47.8W 12.9N 52.3W 14.7N 56.8W

I'd say they want 99L to be a low-ri-da.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156


I'm going to write a new blog by tomorrow afternoon or evening if 99L persists.
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Going to write a blog on 99L later in the morning/ early afternoon.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7885
Quoting Civicane49:
if the TW at the Antilles was at the Atlantic like 99L it would surely had a yellow circle IMO.
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Euro 72 HRS....Closed LOW???
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Interesting first model plots for 99L.

Oooo...lemme see. I am heading for the WU tropical page now...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
487

WHXX01 KWBC 300600

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0600 UTC MON JUL 30 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992012) 20120730 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120730 0600 120730 1800 120731 0600 120731 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 9.7N 34.3W 10.0N 37.4W 10.5N 40.8W 10.7N 44.2W

BAMD 9.7N 34.3W 10.0N 36.4W 10.2N 38.7W 10.6N 41.0W

BAMM 9.7N 34.3W 10.0N 36.6W 10.3N 39.0W 10.7N 41.6W

LBAR 9.7N 34.3W 9.9N 36.8W 10.1N 39.6W 10.4N 42.6W

SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 25KTS 29KTS

DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 25KTS 29KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120801 0600 120802 0600 120803 0600 120804 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 10.8N 47.8W 11.0N 54.8W 11.7N 61.4W 13.1N 68.3W

BAMD 11.1N 43.3W 11.9N 47.8W 12.9N 52.3W 14.7N 56.8W

BAMM 11.0N 44.1W 11.4N 49.0W 12.0N 53.9W 12.7N 58.8W

LBAR 10.7N 45.7W 10.9N 51.3W 10.5N 56.0W 11.2N 56.7W

SHIP 34KTS 44KTS 54KTS 60KTS

DSHP 34KTS 44KTS 54KTS 60KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 9.7N LONCUR = 34.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT

LATM12 = 9.5N LONM12 = 31.7W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 13KT

LATM24 = 9.4N LONM24 = 29.1W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think they're betting the E. Caribbean will kill the blob, which doesn't much matter right now anyway, so it's probably the right thing to not even mention it at this time.

I'm going to bed. I don't expect much for the next day anyway.

Good night/morning everyone.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1496
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Nah, I think just at the CMC. :)
I need to say that you are one of the sweetest blogger I had met in here thanks for the likes.:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7885
Interesting first model plots for 99L.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13274
Quoting SLU:
wow .. the NHC is unusually serious about this system.

This Invest is the most dangerous of the 2012 season so far IMO. Its further out in the Atlantic (more time to develop). It is the first tropical wave to successfully fight off Saharan dry air (thanks to warm core upper ridge over itself that is ventilating the system and allowing for lower atmo lift/t-storms). And the jet stream seems too far north to pick this system up such that it could head for land...

One negative for this system is it seems broadly-organized...it doesn't yet have a tight low pressure center for all the t-storm activity to focus around.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
567. SLU
487

WHXX01 KWBC 300600

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0600 UTC MON JUL 30 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992012) 20120730 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120730 0600 120730 1800 120731 0600 120731 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 9.7N 34.3W 10.0N 37.4W 10.5N 40.8W 10.7N 44.2W

BAMD 9.7N 34.3W 10.0N 36.4W 10.2N 38.7W 10.6N 41.0W

BAMM 9.7N 34.3W 10.0N 36.6W 10.3N 39.0W 10.7N 41.6W

LBAR 9.7N 34.3W 9.9N 36.8W 10.1N 39.6W 10.4N 42.6W

SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 25KTS 29KTS

DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 25KTS 29KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120801 0600 120802 0600 120803 0600 120804 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 10.8N 47.8W 11.0N 54.8W 11.7N 61.4W 13.1N 68.3W

BAMD 11.1N 43.3W 11.9N 47.8W 12.9N 52.3W 14.7N 56.8W

BAMM 11.0N 44.1W 11.4N 49.0W 12.0N 53.9W 12.7N 58.8W

LBAR 10.7N 45.7W 10.9N 51.3W 10.5N 56.0W 11.2N 56.7W

SHIP 34KTS 44KTS 54KTS 60KTS

DSHP 34KTS 44KTS 54KTS 60KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 9.7N LONCUR = 34.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT

LATM12 = 9.5N LONM12 = 31.7W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 13KT

LATM24 = 9.4N LONM24 = 29.1W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
Quoting ENSO2012:


F**K!!!!!!!!!!! That was fast; I ain't going to bed till those first model runs come out. I am bouncing off the walls in unspeakable excitement right now, ^_^. WOW!!!!!

I have warned you already about your swearing on the blog. I will now add you to my ignore list.

Manila is close to round 2.


Rainfall intensity as of 07/30/12 02:00 PM
Aklan, Malay : 7.04 mm/hour
Benguet, La Trinidad : 2.286 mm/hour
Cagayan, Sta Ana : 3.63 mm/hour
Cagayan, Tuguegarao City : 3.048 mm/hour
Ilocos Norte, Batac City : 23.622 mm/hour
Ilocos Norte, Pagudpud : 9.82 mm/hour
Ilocos Sur, Vigan City : 4.572 mm/hour
Nueva Vizcaya, Alfonso Castaneda : 2.286 mm/hour
Palawan, El Nido : 3.32 mm/hour
Pangasinan, Sta. Maria : 5.588 mm/hour
Romblon, Odiongan : 3.06 mm/hour
Zamboanga del Sur, Vicenzo A. Sagun : 5.9 mm/hour
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15742
The Gfs or the Cmc any of the two can win if it develops faster the cmc will beat the Gfs but I am sticking with the Gfs because it had been my favorite model since ever.let see after Ernesto though if we get from here where do you think will be the next place to look for development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just about every blogger on here now has posted 99L's information, we are all excited to have an invest. Should start to see models handle now 99L better, I hope.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7885
Quoting KoritheMan:


Avila is the most conservative by far. Guy seems to rely almost solely on models. Not that I'm denouncing his professionalism.

A model guy like Avila though would be looking at GFS and CMC...so he too might also be on board now I suppose...

I've never tried paying attention to the psychology of the individual forecasters till you guys pointed it out. Interesting...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
Quoting ENSO2012:


Absolutely not; at the model, NOT her. That Texan is sweeter than lemonade!

She's a sweetheart! I'd never disrespect a woman of age like her; my parents raised me better than that!


They clearly didn't raise you to NOT bring up a woman's age. Period. Nada.

She is sweet, but she's not "of age". She's a beautiful young lady.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
558. SLU
wow .. the NHC is unusually serious about this system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

I hope Irene-like scenarios are out the window..I've got fam up the east coast...a sister in NYC and a family in NC....

Definitely will be watchin' this disturbance. A reminder of how quickly the tropics can change after a long period of calm...

You guys are right...I never noticed forecaster Stewart is the least conservative NHC forecaster out there...sometimes the other guys stay conservative longer than they need to be....hmmm....


Avila is the most conservative by far. Guy seems to rely almost solely on models. Not that I'm denouncing his professionalism.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19117
Quoting MississippiWx:


Whoop whoop!


Peanut butter jelllllyyyy...Peanut butter jelllllyyyy...Peanut butter jelllllyyyy..Peanut butter jelllllyyyy..

Peanut butter jelly...
Peanut butter jelly...
& a baseball cap...

You guys get me more excited over an Invest than if I wasn't on here right now....LOL
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
And by later today I mean now for invest declaration.
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al992012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
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201207300557
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2012, DB, O, 2012073006, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992012
AL, 99, 2012072906, , BEST, 0, 94N, 291W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2012072912, , BEST, 0, 94N, 304W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2012072918, , BEST, 0, 95N, 317W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2012073000, , BEST, 0, 96N, 330W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2012073006, , BEST, 0, 97N, 343W, 20, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7885
Quoting txjac:


Wow, surely you werent directing that to AtHome?


Nah, I think just at the CMC. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
News Footage from Philippines.
Link
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15742
Quoting MississippiWx:


Why are you going to prepare it Tuesday. Why not today? :-)


I won't consider it to be "today" until I wake up.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19117
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
WE have 99L!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BEGIN
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Looks like I will have to get the coffee ready for the night crew. I suspect a lot of the bloggers will get up in the morning with an astonished look to their face.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
WE have 99L!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BEGIN
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invest_al992012.invest
FSTDA
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201207300553
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NOTIFY=ATRP
END


Huuuhhhh (gasping for my breath)? That was fast. Way to go Stewart!
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
WE have 99L!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BEGIN
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invest_al992012.invest
FSTDA
R
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040
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201207300553
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END


Whoop whoop!

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
546. txjac
Quoting ENSO2012:



What a piece of shit. You really have to have a loose screw to buy into what the CMC is depicting. At any rate, King Euro is coming up next. let see what he reveals!


Wow, surely you werent directing that to AtHome?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
WE have 99L!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BEGIN
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Not unexpected. Let the (enter word of choice here)-casting commence.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Post 529 beat me to it.
I did:) good to see the yellow circle again and should see an invest later today.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7885
Yikes. I'm not getting involved in any of this.

Have a great night, everyone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


close by or Irene-like hurricane which one?

I hope Irene-like scenarios are out the window..I've got fam up the east coast...a sister in NYC and a family in NC....

Definitely will be watchin' this disturbance. A reminder of how quickly the tropics can change after a long period of calm...

You guys are right...I never noticed forecaster Stewart is the least conservative NHC forecaster out there...sometimes the other guys stay conservative longer than they need to be....hmmm....
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
WE have 99L!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al992012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
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0000
201207300553
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13274
Quoting KoritheMan:
Well, this guy is certainly going to prepare a blog tomorrow.


Why are you going to prepare it Tuesday. Why not today? :-)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.