Severe thunderstorms erupt along a swath 1,500 miles long, killing 2

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:48 PM GMT on July 27, 2012

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A huge outbreak of severe thunderstorms hit the nation on Thursday, causing damage in fifteen states and knocking out power to over 250,000 customers. Two people were killed, one by a falling tree in Pennsylvania, and one due to a lightning strike in New York. Two possible tornadoes touched down: one in Elmira, New York and another in Brookville, PA. The severe storms covered an unusually large area, erupting along a 1,500-mile long swath of the country from Texas to Connecticut. The intensity of the thunderstorms was increased by a very hot and moist airmass; temperatures in the mid to upper 90s were common across the region Thursday. A number of record highs for the date were set, including a 98° reading at Washington D.C.'s Dulles Airport. The threat of severe weather continues for Friday afternoon over portions of the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed these regions in their "Slight Risk" area for severe thunderstorms.


Figure 1. A rare sight: at 7 pm EDT on July 26, 2012, severe thunderstorm warnings were in effect for 132 counties in 15 states along a swath 1,500 miles long.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image taken at 7:02 pm EDT July 26, 2012, of the line of severe thunderstorms that extended from Texas to Connecticut. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 3. An imposing sight: A squall line of severe thunderstorms with two bowing segments takes aim at New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey on July 26, 2012. The tip of a bow echo typically has the most violent winds in a severe thunderstorm.

Was Thursday's outbreak a derecho?
Thursday's outbreak of severe thunderstorms was not nearly as violent as the June 29 - 30 Mid-Atlantic and Midwest derecho, since the atmosphere wasn't as unstable. The June 29 storm was one of the most destructive and deadly severe thunderstorm complexes in North American history. It killed 22 people, knocked out power to at least 3.7 million customers, and did hundreds of millions in damage. There were 871 reports of damaging winds logged by the next day, and 36 of the thunderstorms had wind gusts in excess of hurricane force--74 mph. In contrast, yesterday's event had only two thunderstorms with wind gusts in excess of 74 mph, and 383 reports of damaging winds. We can probably classify yesterday's severe thunderstorm event as a weak derecho, since it met the main criteria, as defined by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center: "A derecho is a widespread, long-lived wind storm that is associated with a band of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms. Although a derecho can produce destruction similar to that of tornadoes, the damage typically is directed in one direction along a relatively straight swath. As a result, the term "straight-line wind damage" sometimes is used to describe derecho damage. By definition, if the wind damage swath extends more than 240 miles (about 400 kilometers) and includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph (93 km/h) or greater along most of its length, then the event may be classified as a derecho."


Figure 4. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 374 reports of damaging winds from Thursday's severe thunderstorms. Two of these thunderstorms had winds in excess of hurricane force (65 knots, or 74 mph.)


Figure 5. The climatology of derecho events over the U.S. Image credit: NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic. A strong tropical wave is expected to bring heavy rains to the Lesser Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday and Tuesday, but none of the models are developing the wave. The NOGAPS computer model is suggesting development of a second tropical wave between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands August 2 - 3.

Have a great Olympic weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Intense (jerseyshoretoo)
We had high winds and heavy rain, but fortunately not serious damage. Prayers for everyone in the path of this massive storm.
Intense
Crazy Lightning in Rhode Island (ExitPupilCreative)
Lightning from storms that slammed the Northeast today. This is at Charlestown Beach in Charlestown, Rhode Island.
Crazy Lightning in Rhode Island
BeforeTheStorm (CalicoBass)
at times there were gust of wind that would stir up the dirt as you can see to the right in this photo. We finally got a real good rain that lasted a while. Was under one Severe Thunderstorm Warning.
BeforeTheStorm
Swirling clouds (Crisred)
As the strom approaches the clouds are rolling over themselves and swirling into each other. Rapidly!
Swirling clouds
Shelf Cloud over the Bronx (JimTheWunder)
Taken just before thunderstorm.
Shelf Cloud over the Bronx

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The CMC?


GGEM
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Quoting Grothar:
I use this model a lot.


The CMC?
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Conditions at 13001 as of
1700 GMT on 07/28/2012:

Note: This report is more than two hours old
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 80.8 °F
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.83 in
Data from this station are not quality controlled by NDBC

Previous 25 observations

MM DD HHMM
GMT LAT
deg LON
deg WDIR WSPD
kts GST
kts PRES
in PTDY
in ATMP
°F WTMP
°F
07 28 1600 11.48 -23.00 - - - 29.84 - 78.6 80.8
07 28 1400 11.49 -22.99 - - - 29.85 - 77.7 80.8
07 28 1100 11.47 -22.99 - - - 29.93 - 80.6 81.0
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1330. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 48884


Only one small cell now, but more sure to come later!
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1328. Grothar
I use this model a lot.

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Pressure at  Buoy 13001 s of cv islands 1010mb
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1326. LargoFl
You just never know who is driving beside you, in back of you etc geez..................................LARGO --
Seventeen people were arrested, 14 vehicles were impounded and 35 citations were issued at an overnight road block set up by the Pinellas County Sheriff's Office in Largo.

The checkpoint operated from 10 p.m. Friday to 3 a.m. at 900 Missouri Avenue in the Babcock Furniture parking lot. According to deputies, 822 vehicles passed by and 255 were diverted to the checkpoint.

Only two of the 17 arrests were for DUI. Of the 22 total charges, seven were for possession of marijuana, five for driving with a suspended or revoked license, three for possession of drug paraphernalia, three for not having a valid driver's license and two for violation of probation.

According to the sheriff's office, deputies will continue to operate sobriety checkpoints once a month at various locations in the county.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 48884
Quoting WxGeekVA:


You mean 09L?


Fixed.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Is now Pouch 07L SE of CV islands.

Link



You mean 09L?
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Mini-blob Grothar???? You were the one who gave me the blob rundown for correct terminology. Blobette was, I thought, the universally excepted terminology. Or is that just when a blob shrinks?
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Quoting ThatsMrPresident2U:
There is the weakness I'm talking about in the Gulf. Keep in mind the shear remains high in the Caribbean and is forecasted to remain high, so any storm that entered through there would likely get ripped apart, any storm that went north of the Greater Antilles might find very favorable conditions for strengthening and the favored track would be towards the US East Coast.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting Grothar:


Tropical depression status is very likely with that system soon. Give it a day or two.


Is now Pouch 09L SE of CV islands.

Link

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1318. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 48884
1317. LargoFl
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Yay!



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NC EXCEPT FAR W...SRN VA...NRN SC.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281818Z - 282015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED/LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS IN BANDS AND CLUSTERS MAY
DEVELOP DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON SW AND S OF WW 535...WITH MAIN
CONCERN BEING DAMAGING GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...VIS IMAGERY SHOWED EARLIER SW/NE-ALIGNED BAND OF
MID-HIGH CLOUDS BREAKING/THINNING OVER ERN CAROLINAS. WELL-DEFINED
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONES DEVELOPED ON EITHER SIDE THROUGH MID-LATE
MORNING. NARROW CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY STG HEATING TO ITS E MAY
COMBINE WITH COASTAL SEA BREEZE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER
THAT AREA. MEANWHILE...WRN DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE HAS BECOME
MORE ILL-DEFINED BECAUSE OF CLOUD-BAND DIFFUSION...BUT ALSO...IS NOW
ESSENTIALLY COLLOCATED WITH ANTECEDENT SFC TROUGH/CONFLUENCE LINE
ANALYZED FROM FVX-TDF-HBI LINE AND WWD INTO WEAK LOW NEAR HKY.
CU/TCU ALREADY ARE DEEPENING ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN NC INVOF
LATTER FEATURE. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS VERY MOIST OVER
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN AREAS WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY LOW-MID
70S F. THAT MOISTURE COMBINES WITH STG DIABATIC HEATING AND
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT TO YIELD MLCAPE RANGING
FROM AROUND 2500 J/KG OVER NRN SC TO 1500-2000 J/KG IN SERN VA. SLGT
ENHANCEMENT TO MIDLEVEL WINDS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH
RESULTS IN RELATIVE MAX OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC AND
SERN VA...BUT WITH EFFECTIVE VALUES STILL ONLY 25-35 KT.

ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN
VA ALONG/AHEAD OF WEAK/RESIDUAL SFC COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...FROM THAT
AREA DOWNSHEAR ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL VA...ENVIRONMENT IS BEHIND
MID-UPPER TROUGH WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT EVIDENT VIA MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY...AND IS CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF BOTH BUOYANCY
AND DEEP SHEAR.

..EDWARDS/CORFIDI.. 07/28/2012
...yep storms are starting up all along the east coast
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 48884
1316. QMiami
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
United States beat Colombia in soccer (Final score: 3-0).

United States beat Croatia in basketball (Final score: 81-56).


Hey you might want use spoiler alert!! first - some of us might tape or watch later on in evening during olympics
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1315. Grothar
Mini-blob


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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
218 PM AST SAT JUL 28 2012

PRC003-011-083-117-282015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0285.120728T1818Z-120728T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-LAS MARIAS PR-RINCON PR-AGUADA PR-
218 PM AST SAT JUL 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...LAS MARIAS...RINCON AND AGUADA

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 216 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED AN ISOLATED BUT
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING AND
MOVING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AS WELL AS IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN OR MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1835 6713 1832 6713 1833 6712 1832 6707
1830 6704 1828 6703 1828 6701 1824 6702
1827 6720 1829 6721 1838 6720

$$

RAM
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1312. LargoFl
- IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 331 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN HORRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWESTERN COLUMBUS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA * UNTIL 430 PM EDT * AT 324 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GAPWAY...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF MULLINS...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO... BAYBORO... GREEN SEA... CHERRY GROVE... LORIS... TABOR CITY... CLARENDON... MORE DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND AFFECT OTHER COMMUNITIES IN THE WARNED AREA. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH... DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 48884
Yay!



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NC EXCEPT FAR W...SRN VA...NRN SC.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281818Z - 282015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED/LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS IN BANDS AND CLUSTERS MAY
DEVELOP DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON SW AND S OF WW 535...WITH MAIN
CONCERN BEING DAMAGING GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...VIS IMAGERY SHOWED EARLIER SW/NE-ALIGNED BAND OF
MID-HIGH CLOUDS BREAKING/THINNING OVER ERN CAROLINAS. WELL-DEFINED
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONES DEVELOPED ON EITHER SIDE THROUGH MID-LATE
MORNING. NARROW CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY STG HEATING TO ITS E MAY
COMBINE WITH COASTAL SEA BREEZE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER
THAT AREA. MEANWHILE...WRN DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE HAS BECOME
MORE ILL-DEFINED BECAUSE OF CLOUD-BAND DIFFUSION...BUT ALSO...IS NOW
ESSENTIALLY COLLOCATED WITH ANTECEDENT SFC TROUGH/CONFLUENCE LINE
ANALYZED FROM FVX-TDF-HBI LINE AND WWD INTO WEAK LOW NEAR HKY.
CU/TCU ALREADY ARE DEEPENING ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN NC INVOF
LATTER FEATURE. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS VERY MOIST OVER
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN AREAS WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY LOW-MID
70S F. THAT MOISTURE COMBINES WITH STG DIABATIC HEATING AND
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT TO YIELD MLCAPE RANGING
FROM AROUND 2500 J/KG OVER NRN SC TO 1500-2000 J/KG IN SERN VA. SLGT
ENHANCEMENT TO MIDLEVEL WINDS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH
RESULTS IN RELATIVE MAX OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC AND
SERN VA...BUT WITH EFFECTIVE VALUES STILL ONLY 25-35 KT.

ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN
VA ALONG/AHEAD OF WEAK/RESIDUAL SFC COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...FROM THAT
AREA DOWNSHEAR ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL VA...ENVIRONMENT IS BEHIND
MID-UPPER TROUGH WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT EVIDENT VIA MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY...AND IS CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF BOTH BUOYANCY
AND DEEP SHEAR.

..EDWARDS/CORFIDI.. 07/28/2012
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1310. Patrap
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1309. txjac
Another hot one in Houston today! Off to the baseball game (Go Astros) with my sister and all of our kids!

Hope that everyone here has a safe and pleasant weekend!
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1308. Grothar
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The GFS is starting to show 'some' consistency that a TD/TS will form off the African coast this week. Still a little early for CV season to get cranking, but it happens. Kills it off once it reaches the islands due to high shear being there. Would have to go north of the islands to survive and intensify, which is a possibility. I want to see more consistency, but it is within the GFS's vaunted 5 day accuracy period. Let's wait 2-3 more runs before we come to a conclusion on this.


Tropical depression status is very likely with that system soon. Give it a day or two.
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Quoting gulfbreeze:
I think YOU should pick a new Picture!!!!!


I have to ask out of curiosity...what's wrong with his picture?
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1306. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
333 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL WORCESTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...
NORTHEASTERN HARTFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
NORTHWESTERN TOLLAND COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
EASTERN HAMPDEN COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 330 PM EDT...AN PERSISTENT AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTH
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT. FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN LONGMEADOW WHERE
MORE THAN 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS IS OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THOSE NEAR STREAMS AND CREEKS...OR IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. AVOID FLOODED
ROADS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW VEHICLES TO CROSS SAFELY...
OR THE ROADWAY MAY BE UNDERMINED. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN!



LAT...LON 4205 7257 4210 7253 4223 7248 4222 7222
4197 7237 4197 7261


FIELD
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 48884
1305. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
335 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
SOUTHEASTERN BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

* AT 331 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS LIKELY PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING FROM
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR FAIRFIELD...OR NEAR LINCOLN PARK...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.



LAT...LON 4082 7434 4086 7433 4087 7434 4090 7434
4091 7430 4090 7428 4092 7428 4101 7394
4099 7389 4082 7399 4082 7402 4078 7414
4078 7415 4077 7416 4074 7437 4080 7437
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 48884
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Quoting popartpete:
Why is the high in a bad position? Where do you think such a pattern could place such a storm? Thanks!!
The position of the High as it stands right now and on the GFS forecast is a dangerous one, because it doesn't allow for much recurvature and would bring storms towards the US East Coast and depending on the strength a southern route into the Caribbean is not out of the question after that there seems to be a weakness that would draw these storms into the Gulf.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
1302. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 48884
1301. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 48884
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Uneventful 12z EURO.


Development can occur even without any Euro support,but is better to have that model bullish on development to have a true consensus.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I would not put much faith single ensemble runs - focus on the ensemble means.

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Some of the 12z GFS ensemble members show several storms forming through the GFS forecast period... Check them out if you have time.

This was one of the more interesting ones:

Stop posting those things..
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1297. JLPR2
Quoting Articuno:

Something is trying to come together.


We got a low in the surface analysis, lets see if it really dissipates.

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Uneventful 12z EURO.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Some of the 12z GFS ensemble members show several storms forming through the GFS forecast period... Check them out if you have time.

This was one of the more interesting ones:



I would not put much faith single ensemble runs - focus on the ensemble means.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Use the one from post 1291.


Thanks :))
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Quoting CaribBoy:
ANY LINK TO THE 12Z EURO???

Use the one from post 1291.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 88 Comments: 8250
ANY LINK TO THE 12Z EURO???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Some of the 12z GFS ensemble members show several storms forming through the GFS forecast period... Check them out if you have time.

This was one of the more interesting ones:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 88 Comments: 8250
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
i see a little spin to!

I thought I was the only one who saw spin. A low might be forming even though the area it's in is not good.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
00 NOGAPS 144 hrs. note the placement of the High in a dangerous position.

Why is the high in a bad position? Where do you think such a pattern could place such a storm? Thanks!!
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Quoting Civicane49:
Eastern Atlantic loop:


Something is trying to come together.
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Quoting gulfbreeze:
I think YOU should pick a new Picture!!!!!

Yesh I agree. :P
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Eastern Atlantic loop:

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The afternoon discussion from the San Juan NWS.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST SAT JUL 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF 20N IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE A SUBEQUATORIAL UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A WEAK INDUCED TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL PROMOTE AN UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNSTABLE THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK AS ITCZ MOISTURE IS
GRADUALLY LIFTED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK INDUCED TROUGH SUPPORTED BY A TUTT LOW
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT FOR SUNDAY....A FEW ROUNDS OF
MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS INTERIOR..NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING PARTS OF ANASCO...RINCON...
AGUADA AND MAYAGUEZ EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALSO REVEALED STREAMERS DOWNWIND OF USVI...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AS
WELL AS CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NORTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO.

ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY
SURGE ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY THROUGH FRIDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ POOLS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA AND MOST TAF
SITES AT LEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...TSRA ACROSS
NW PR MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH
28/22Z. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STEER SCT-BKN CLD LYRS MAINLY BTW 020-080K FT ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA. ELY L/LVL WNDS OF 15-25 KTS BLO 20K FT DECR W/HT ABV...AND
FEW CLDS ABV 10K FT...EXCEPT IN AND AROUND ISOLD CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KTS WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. ATTM...THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE TO GET 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.
HOWEVER...OUR LATEST FORECAST HAS WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 6 FEET FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 80 89 / 30 50 50 70
STT 80 90 81 90 / 40 40 60 70
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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