Major severe thunderstorm outbreak expected; U.S. drought intensifies

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:16 PM GMT on July 26, 2012

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A dangerous outbreak of organized severe thunderstorms with strong, damaging winds is expected this afternoon from Ohio eastwards through Pennsylvania and into New England, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). They have put the region, which includes Columbus, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and New York City, in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather, just one notch below the highest level of alert. Much of the region is also under advisories for extreme heat, with temperatures in the upper 90s expected. This extreme heat will help energize the thunderstorms by making the atmosphere very unstable. A cold front passing through the region will trigger the severe weather episode beginning around 2 pm EDT this afternoon, near the Indiana/Ohio border. This front already triggered a round of severe thunderstorms early this morning across Michigan, which knocked out power to 16,000 customers. This afternoon, severe thunderstorms may organize into a complex that features a bow-shaped echo. If such a complex brings violent straight-line winds in excess of 58 mph (93 km/hr) over a swath of at least 240 miles (about 400 km), it will be called a derecho (from the Spanish phrase for "straight ahead".) The atmosphere is not as unstable as was the case for the June 29 - 30 Mid-Atlantic and Midwest derecho, however. That storm was one of the most destructive and deadly fast-moving severe thunderstorm complexes in North American history. It killed 22 people, knocked out power to at least 3.7 million customers, and did hundreds of millions in damage.


Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Thursday, July 26, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC).

U.S. drought intensifies
The great U.S. drought of 2012 held constant in size but grew more intense over the past week, said NOAA in their weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Thursday, July 26. The area of the contiguous U.S. covered by drought stayed constant at 64% , but the area covered by severe or greater drought jumped from 42% to 46%. These are truly historic levels of drought, exceeded only during the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s and a severe drought in the mid-1950s. The July 2012 drought is second only to the great Dust Bowl drought of July 1934 in terms of the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought (if we assume the drought conditions measured in mid-July are representative of the entire month of July, which is a reasonable approximation given the lastest drought forecast.) The five months with the greatest percent area in moderate or greater drought, since 1895, now look like this:

1) Jul 1934, 80%
2) Jul 2012, 64%
3) Dec 1939, 60%
4) Jul 1954, 60%
5) Dec 1956, 58%

If we consider the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by severe or greater drought, drought conditions as of July 24, 2012 now rank in 3rd place:

1) Jul 1934, 63%
2) Sep 1954, 50%
3) Jul 2012, 46%
4) Dec 1956, 43%
5) Aug 1936, 43%


Figure 2. July 24, 2012 drought conditions showed historic levels of drought across the U.S., with 64% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate or greater drought, and 46% of the county experiencing severe or greater drought. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Extreme heat continues in the Heartland
St. Louis, Missouri's summer of extreme heat reached record levels on Wednesday, when the city hit 108°F. This marked the 11th day this summer in St. Louis with temperatures of at least 105°F, beating the old record of ten such days in 1934. The minimum temperature in the city fell to just 86°F, tying with July 24, 1901, as the warmest minimum temperature ever recorded in the city. St. Louis has seen just 0.53" inches of rain this month, far below the normal 3.35" it usually records by this point in July.

Jeff Masters

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449. VR46L
Quoting yoboi:


it's not really bullying or harrassment people start calling peoples name when they get intimidated or out there comfort zone it's human nature...best not to take it personally..


Your a cool dude , Yoboi !! Sometimes my temper gets the better of me ...
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Here we go!



its going to miss the trough?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16399
Here we go!

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Quoting yoboi:


an independant??? rep and dems at each other throats in dc nothing get's passed anymore..


one more yank...
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Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16399
Quoting aspectre:
Okay, why is the WU forum inserting its own address into links?
..remember there are those kinds of changes coming, the 25th has passed
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ESL by LSU had the Bright Idea to re-format their Page so I'm confused as all get out with it now.

I mean really?

I wonder if Blackstone bought ESL?

ACK!


ESL by LSU


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132188
442. yoboi
Quoting RipplinH2O:
Were those supposed to be f's Pat...as in pffffffffffft? or did you literally bite your lip and go "plllllllllt?


please don't throw gas on the fire...
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Ah...I like it. I didn't know how to spell that until just now.
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Delete
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Okay, why is the WU forum inserting its own address into links?
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438. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012


TROPICAL WAVE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE ERN TRPCL ATLC ANALYZED FROM
18N30W TO 10N32W. THIS SYSTEM WAS LABELED AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON PREVIOUS SURFACE MAPS. HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER UNFAVORABLE REGIONS OF DEVELOPMENT...IT'S LOW LEVEL CENTER
HAS WEAKENED EXPOSING ONLY A WAVE AXIS. THIS SCENARIO WAS
CONCLUDED THIS MORNING AS AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS WENT OVER
THIS REGION INDICATING THE ELONGATED CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS...WHICH IS FOUND WEST OF A REGION OF DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SOME MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE REMAINS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS ON THE
CLOUD PATTERN ON EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES OF THE DAY.
THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MOSTLY S OF THE WAVE
AXIS WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED.



The low in the east Atl looked much worse lastnight from atleast one pass. This morning's ASCAT was mostly a miss & pretty ugly over all. OSCAT came by since, got a great pass..Tightened up a bit.. I'm not agreeing with their conclusion..



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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon... How is the severe outbreak evolving?
..be careful up there..................
Event:

Tornado Watch



Alert:

TORNADO WATCH 525 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
MA

. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE


Instructions:




Target Area:




Berkshire

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Good afternoon... How is the severe outbreak evolving?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 86 Comments: 8189
Quoting RipplinH2O:
Were those supposed to be f's Pat...as in pffffffffffft? or did you literally bite your lip and go "plllllllllt?


..raspberry pllllllllllllllt's

Hard to bite my Lip without dem top ones in.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132188
LOL..the blog

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16399
Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop

click image for Loop. Check the Boxes MSLP and FRONTS
ZOOM is active

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132188
432. yoboi
Quoting VR46L:
The animosity on this blog is horrific today ...Calling folk troll or sport because they have a differing view ,Its a form of bullying and harrassment ...


it's not really bullying or harrassment people start calling peoples name when they get intimidated or out there comfort zone it's human nature...best not to take it personally..
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Quoting ncstorm:


Hey, you still think the trough is going to deter this away from the CONUS?


I beginning to think not as the Euro has been trending with a weaker trough. Could be a SE hit this run.
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Were those supposed to be f's Pat...as in pffffffffffft? or did you literally bite your lip and go "plllllllllt?
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Quoting VR46L:
The animosity on this blog is horrific today ...Calling folk troll or sport because they have a differing view ,Its a form of bullying and harrassment ...


I know it's getting worse everyday. One blogger called us brown bagging bloggers last week. I mean really come on people!
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Dog days of Augest starting on east coast of Florida. Ocean temp near shore is 82 degrees. If west wind continues, upward swelling will lower water temp back into 70s
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Quoting LargoFl:
....hey GS..you getting any rain from that thing in the gulf at all?


no, its way too far away
im in N GA
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9769
pllllllllllllt....
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132188
425. yoboi
Quoting BobWallace:


You're starting to catch on Scott.

IMHO, a chain-jerker....



your always so positive bob.....
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
12Z Euro out 72hrs and it has the wave stronger earlier on this run.



Hey, you still think the trough is going to deter this away from the CONUS?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16399
"We've got the 'storm of the century' every year now..."
Extreme weather versus the technological infrastructure
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422. VR46L
The animosity on this blog is horrific today ...Calling folk troll or sport because they have a differing view, Its a form of bullying and harrassment ...
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......................................wow just Look at all those Lows lined up, northern states..its your turn, gee...going to be some bad news reports tomorrow
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96 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16399
96hrs

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20 years ago. About 21 days from now it would form, the first named storm of the season.
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12Z Euro out 72hrs and it has the wave stronger earlier on this run.

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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
212 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN ALLEGANY COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK
SOUTHERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 204 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 10 MILES WEST OF SALAMANCA TO 10 MILES WEST OF ALLEGANY PARK
TO 20 MILES WEST OF ALLEGANY PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
ALLEGANY PARK...
HINSDALE...
ST. BONAVENTURE...
WESTON MILLS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THESE STORMS.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN NEW YORK.
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415. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:


The error bars on the "%" estimates I provided are not large enough such that ships/planes/etc operating in the Arctic Circle could be the primary cause of black carbon. That means that with virtually a 99.99% confidence that you claim is wrong.

Even thinking about it with our critical thinking hat put back on... the vast, overwhelming number of vehicles in the temperature/equatorial regions of Earth makes it quite clear that if transportation was 100% of black carbon emissions (its not), then the majority could not be from those operating in the Arctic. Your claim is not in a gray area. It's not in the error bars. It was wrong then, it's wrong now. Just own up to, learn from it, and fill your trench back in. Further pushing of this will only suggest that you do not wish to know the answer, but instead wish to troll.


is there a link you can provide so i can read it?? i would apprec that..thanks in advance..
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414. CJ5
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


The oil industry has the highest profits of any industry. Exxon/Mobil is the world"s richest company. The oil industry has managed this will a comparatively low ROI. We subsidize the oil industry, why?

On the ROI front. Would you rather receive a 100% ROI on $1.00 or a 3% ROI on $16,000,000,000? A company has to make profits to stay in business, excluding the non profits. This should not equate to any business having a right to make a profit. That "right" does not exist.


Since most cannot name the major subsides, let review what they are. That will help define the debate.

The first is a domestic manufacturing tax break. All US manufacturing companies get this tax break and it was designed to keep jobs in the US. Should "Big Oil" be excluded or everyone?

The second is Percentage depletion allowance. All comapnies get this as it is write down of capital equipment. Even my business gets this deduction.

The third is Foriegn Tax credit. A deduction for taxes companies pay to foriegn governments, again all companies get this.

and there is a smalled "subsidy" called the Itangible Drilling Costs. All companies get to write of the cost of doing business over the life of the investment. Oil companies get to take this deduction in the first year which is the only "subsidy" that is different for oil companies.

So, now that everyone know's, we can have a logical debate.
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72 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16399
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
....hey GS..you getting any rain from that thing in the gulf at all?
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Decent rotation on NWS Radar, but can't tell how strong it is without more powerful radar program. Takes the warnings seriously, folks.

Uncheck "topo" on the radar page and black background makes them easier to see on NWS SRV loop. Also unclicking warnings helps. For me anyway. A lot of it is a function of practice.

(T-47)
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looks as if our Gulf system is trying to beome something.



As long as there is anticyclonic flow at the surface across the Gulf, we won't have anything develop from this disturbed area. There has been a persistent spin at the mid-levels, but that's it so far. A few days ago, we had a nice low level spin, but it has since been replaced by anticyclonic flow. It's very evident across the North Central Gulf on visible loops.
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updated SPC map for tomorrow
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16399
This may be off topic but the euro is running
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Quoting CJ5:


Give me a break! Technology in transportation has made huge strides over the past 50 years and even greater strides in the last 20. Co2 improvement of about 84%, Lead emmissions about 90%, SO2 is 76%. Despite the increase in the last 20 years of population, miles driving, energy consumption the emmissions of pollutants have drop 67%

Try to be real and not just spout bad info. That is part of the problem.


It's obvious that the sources that have reported these #'s are completely unreliable. Only the ones that the AGW crowd provide are true. Don't you realize that by now or are you new to this site.

sarcasm flag: way on
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This is going to try and rival the June 29/30 event. What an incredible amount of energy out there today. Even getting in on the act here again in Wisconsin. Going to be a sick almost 1200 miles long squall line to start, what's it going to look like when it starts to bow out in a couple hours in the NE?
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WT 0525
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 80%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 50%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 90%
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33873
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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