Major severe thunderstorm outbreak expected; U.S. drought intensifies

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:16 PM GMT on July 26, 2012

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A dangerous outbreak of organized severe thunderstorms with strong, damaging winds is expected this afternoon from Ohio eastwards through Pennsylvania and into New England, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). They have put the region, which includes Columbus, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and New York City, in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather, just one notch below the highest level of alert. Much of the region is also under advisories for extreme heat, with temperatures in the upper 90s expected. This extreme heat will help energize the thunderstorms by making the atmosphere very unstable. A cold front passing through the region will trigger the severe weather episode beginning around 2 pm EDT this afternoon, near the Indiana/Ohio border. This front already triggered a round of severe thunderstorms early this morning across Michigan, which knocked out power to 16,000 customers. This afternoon, severe thunderstorms may organize into a complex that features a bow-shaped echo. If such a complex brings violent straight-line winds in excess of 58 mph (93 km/hr) over a swath of at least 240 miles (about 400 km), it will be called a derecho (from the Spanish phrase for "straight ahead".) The atmosphere is not as unstable as was the case for the June 29 - 30 Mid-Atlantic and Midwest derecho, however. That storm was one of the most destructive and deadly fast-moving severe thunderstorm complexes in North American history. It killed 22 people, knocked out power to at least 3.7 million customers, and did hundreds of millions in damage.


Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Thursday, July 26, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC).

U.S. drought intensifies
The great U.S. drought of 2012 held constant in size but grew more intense over the past week, said NOAA in their weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Thursday, July 26. The area of the contiguous U.S. covered by drought stayed constant at 64% , but the area covered by severe or greater drought jumped from 42% to 46%. These are truly historic levels of drought, exceeded only during the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s and a severe drought in the mid-1950s. The July 2012 drought is second only to the great Dust Bowl drought of July 1934 in terms of the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought (if we assume the drought conditions measured in mid-July are representative of the entire month of July, which is a reasonable approximation given the lastest drought forecast.) The five months with the greatest percent area in moderate or greater drought, since 1895, now look like this:

1) Jul 1934, 80%
2) Jul 2012, 64%
3) Dec 1939, 60%
4) Jul 1954, 60%
5) Dec 1956, 58%

If we consider the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by severe or greater drought, drought conditions as of July 24, 2012 now rank in 3rd place:

1) Jul 1934, 63%
2) Sep 1954, 50%
3) Jul 2012, 46%
4) Dec 1956, 43%
5) Aug 1936, 43%


Figure 2. July 24, 2012 drought conditions showed historic levels of drought across the U.S., with 64% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate or greater drought, and 46% of the county experiencing severe or greater drought. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Extreme heat continues in the Heartland
St. Louis, Missouri's summer of extreme heat reached record levels on Wednesday, when the city hit 108°F. This marked the 11th day this summer in St. Louis with temperatures of at least 105°F, beating the old record of ten such days in 1934. The minimum temperature in the city fell to just 86°F, tying with July 24, 1901, as the warmest minimum temperature ever recorded in the city. St. Louis has seen just 0.53" inches of rain this month, far below the normal 3.35" it usually records by this point in July.

Jeff Masters

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799. Jedkins01
9:41 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


There are a little too many warnings there if you ask me, overkill, some of those cells that have warnings aren't even half as strong as a daily shower here. However those ones in northeast Pennsylvania are very very powerful, they need to be take seriously that's for sure.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7405
798. CJ5
9:41 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:


$2.4 Billion: and would have eliminated $2.4 billion in annual tax deductions for the five major oil companies: BP, Exxon, Chevron, Shell and ConocoPhillips


I highlighted the accurate part. Tax deductions.

Flip back several more pages and these tax breaks are explained. The reason it was defeated is because the tax break's they receive are the same tax breaks every other business gets so if passed it would break the law. I will be transparent and say there is a "big oil" only tax break to do with depreciation of equipment over 1 year but it also has ties to the other companies.
Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
797. Bluestorm5
9:41 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Line in Ohio is looking good...

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
796. MAweatherboy1
9:41 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7754
795. Patrap
9:41 PM GMT on July 26, 2012

447
WUUS54 KTSA 262140
SVRTSA
OKC061-079-135-262215-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0161.120726T2140Z-120726T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
440 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN SEQUOYAH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTHEASTERN HASKELL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHERN LE FLORE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 435 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF GANS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...GANS.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 304 AND 316.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.



LAT...LON 3545 9464 3526 9464 3529 9489 3546 9484
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 285DEG 13KT 3535 9476



CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127913
794. Patrap
9:40 PM GMT on July 26, 2012

377
WFUS51 KBGM 262140
TORBGM
NYC105-262230-
/O.NEW.KBGM.TO.W.0009.120726T2140Z-120726T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
540 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SULLIVAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT.

* AT 536 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM ROSCOE TO HORTONVILLE TO LAVA TO ELDRED...
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...WHITE LAKE AND MONGAUP VALLEY BY 545 PM
EDT...
SWAN LAKE...PARKSVILLE AND MONTICELLO BY 550 PM EDT...
WILLOWEMOC...THOMPSONVILLE AND SOUTH FALLSBURG BY 555 PM EDT...
WOODRIDGE...WOODBOURNE AND GRAHAMSVILLE BY 600 PM EDT...

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT
1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...SEEK SHELTER IN A BASEMENT
OR AN INTERIOR ROOM...AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.



LAT...LON 4150 7448 4149 7475 4142 7476 4144 7481
4143 7483 4144 7489 4148 7491 4148 7498
4160 7506 4176 7506 4178 7511 4181 7507
4182 7511 4186 7513 4202 7477 4188 7445
4175 7456 4165 7439 4159 7436
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 265DEG 46KT 4192 7493 4178 7493
4164 7487 4154 7493



DJN

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127913
793. Pirate999
9:40 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting dabirds:
Well another line didn't build into our area, maybe the third time is the charm, line in NW IL builds to south and gets us some moisture, believe that's the last chance this week.

Oh and Pirate it's on the third page of this blog - funny how if you only quote part of the sentence you can make someone's statements look bad, where have we seen that before?

Off to vacation, see y'all - stay safe - hope ya get to track a wave that heads towards TX for a big wet (not too windy) recurve into the Midwest by the time I get back. Another wet frontal passage before it would be good too!

PatG


Thank you Pat. Enjoy your vacation. Your sarcasm is noted and appreciated.. Please, do tell and quote examples of where you have seen that before on "both" sides of a discussion... The curious deeply want to know.

As you will note from the entire article, the point is well established regarding the the term unpresidented when the scientists have stated this happens every 150 years and that NASA is over stretching.

It bares repeating to you, in that you may have inadvertently missed my previous comment, I don't discount the melting of the ice (Greenland, or as some have tied to steer the conversation, arctic ice) just the overreaching of some comments and their natural challenges to those statements.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 173
792. Patrap
9:40 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Same thing happened with "Fresca" here, I dont know why though.

; )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127913
791. WxGeekVA
9:38 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Now that a Derecho has happened its thrown around the blog and meteorological world a lot.So now every thunderstorm complex is a Derecho.


It's just like debris ball from last year, they said it a few times in the SE Outbreak then for the rest of the year every supercell had a debris ball.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3470
790. Patrap
9:38 PM GMT on July 26, 2012

333
WUUS51 KPBZ 262137
SVRPBZ
PAC051-059-125-129-262230-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0163.120726T2137Z-120726T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
537 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL WESTMORELAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 535 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
NEMACOLIN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
NEMACOLIN... MASONTOWN... BROWNSVILLE...
WALTERSBURG... FAIRCHANCE... UNIONTOWN...
HOPWOOD... DUNBAR... CHALKHILL...
CONNELLSVILLE... FARMINGTON... OHIOPYLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS A KILLER. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN MARYLAND AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE. 1-877-633-6772.



LAT...LON 3990 7940 3986 7941 3982 7936 3978 7936
3978 7938 3977 7937 3976 7938 3982 7992
3998 7995 4009 7984 4004 7929
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 275DEG 30KT 3990 7984



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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127913
789. Doppler22
9:38 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Ok so here in SE PA of course no storms yet however i can see the clouds approaching... no dark clouds yet as they r fairly far away still but a solid line of white is approaching quickly
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3727
788. Patrap
9:37 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Ring of Fire Derecho

Published on Jun 30, 2012 by akrherz

Timelapse of closest NEXRAD base reflectivity of the 29 June 2012 derecho. The timelapse moves from Davenport, Iowa to Richmond, Virginia over 14 hours.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127913
787. MAweatherboy1
9:37 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
The northernmost part of the first line is starting to get a good bowing shape... Could be like a mini derecho.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7754
786. Patrap
9:36 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting RevElvis:
Climate Change and the Next U.S. Revolution

Business Week explains: "A record heat wave, drought and catastrophic wildfires are accomplishing what climate scientists could not: convincing a wide swath of Americans that global temperatures are rising."

OpEdNews Article
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127913
785. weathermanwannabe
9:35 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Gonna Head Out for the PM; don't have to mention the situation for the NE. Here is a link for JFK Approach Tower at the Airport. It will be an interesting link to listen to as the squall line approaches NYC.

Link

See everyone later or tomorrow.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9075
784. CJ5
9:35 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Now that a Derecho has happened its thrown around the blog and meteorological world a lot.So now every thunderstorm complex is a Derecho.


Yep. It came from nowhere and is now the most used word weather.
Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
783. Articuno
9:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:




You can get the CAPE data and other data here too at the SPC Mesoscale Analysis page

so the blue means..?
Sorry I am not too good with weather yet.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2383
782. drg0dOwnCountry
9:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting CJ5:


They don't get subsides.

Because of consumers you get extreme weather.


$2.4 Billion: subsidies to the Big Five producers debated and defeated in the Senate in 2011 and 2012

The Repeal Big Oil Tax Subsidies Act, sponsored by Senator Menendez (D-NJ) was debated and defeated by the Senate for two years running, and would have eliminated $2.4 billion in annual tax deductions for the five major oil companies: BP, Exxon, Chevron, Shell and ConocoPhillips.

Although the move would have been an initial step, it%u2019s just the tip of the iceberg. So called %u201Cindependent%u201D oil companies are hardly small businesses. Major integrated oil companies also include Occidental, Amerada Hess, Marathon, Murphy Oil and dozens of others. Together, these companies produced 53.5 percent of U.S. oil in 2009.

http://priceofoil.org/fossil-fuel-subsidies/

Consumers are to blame yes but the oil companies are guilty to lie about climate change (Another discussion we proceed later).

Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
781. redwagon
9:33 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Another example of the dry slot some of us Texans live in. Stuff just can't get in.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3231
780. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:33 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53613
779. Grothar
9:32 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Now that a Derecho has happened its thrown around the blog and meteorological world a lot.So now every thunderstorm complex is a Derecho.


I know. When I was younger we just called them big thunderstorms.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26050
778. Patrap
9:32 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
METEOSAT-8
(6 hour updates)

Eastern Atlantic

WV

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127913
777. Bluestorm5
9:32 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
All warnings so far:

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
776. Grothar
9:30 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26050
775. Bluestorm5
9:30 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Now that a Derecho has happened its thrown around the blog and meteorological world a lot.So now every thunderstorm complex is a Derecho.
Very true... you got to thanks East Coast media for that. However, I really think people should watch out for Ohio line.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
774. CJ5
9:29 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:


Make that on top of the subsidies

Because of them we get extreme weather!


They don't get subsides.

Because of consumers you get extreme weather.
Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
773. washingtonian115
9:29 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Now that a Derecho has happened its thrown around the blog and meteorological world a lot.So now every thunderstorm complex is a Derecho.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16900
772. Patrap
9:28 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127913
771. Patrap
9:28 PM GMT on July 26, 2012

717
WUUS51 KOKX 262127
SVROKX
NJC031-NYC071-262300-
/O.NEW.KOKX.SV.W.0052.120726T2127Z-120726T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
527 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

* AT 524 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 58 MILES NORTHWEST OF
OTISVILLE TO 33 MILES NORTHWEST OF PORT JERVIS TO 56 MILES WEST
OF PORT JERVIS...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
PORT JERVIS BY 600 PM...
UNIONVILLE AND OTISVILLE BY 605 PM...
MIDDLETOWN BY 615 PM...
WEST MILFORD...WARWICK...GOSHEN AND FLORIDA BY 620 PM...
RINGWOOD AND BLOOMINGDALE BY 625 PM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM THURSDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.



LAT...LON 4151 7448 4159 7439 4164 7427 4160 7420
4159 7414 4162 7412 4156 7401 4136 7400
4126 7408 4115 7423 4101 7428 4100 7433
4102 7443 4105 7445 4104 7450 4109 7450
4120 7437 4135 7469 4140 7475 4149 7476
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 306DEG 54KT 4211 7519 4158 7519
4135 7573
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127913
770. StormTracker2K
9:27 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
769. Patrap
9:27 PM GMT on July 26, 2012

641
WUUS54 KTSA 262127
SVRTSA
ARC033-131-OKC079-135-262230-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0160.120726T2127Z-120726T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
427 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
SOUTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SEBASTIAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 425 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROLAND TO CAMERON...MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
ROLAND...POCOLA...MOFFETT...ARKOMA...BONANZA...HAC KETT...FORT
SMITH...MIDLAND...VAN BUREN...JENNY LIND...EXCELSIOR...BARLING...
HUNTINGTON...GREENWOOD...ALMA...BLOOMER...BURNVILL E...WASHBURN AND
LAVACA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 IN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 317 AND
328.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 IN ARKANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND
11.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.



LAT...LON 3513 9408 3514 9413 3510 9413 3510 9414
3506 9423 3505 9462 3546 9465 3549 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 267DEG 15KT 3539 9453 3515 9452
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127913
768. Bluestorm5
9:26 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Line in Ohio is looking stronger than first line. I think the line in Ohio got a chance to be derecho.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
767. MrMixon
9:25 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Here's a map where they've done the math for us...

Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
766. dabirds
9:25 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Well another line didn't build into our area, maybe the third time is the charm, line in NW IL builds to south and gets us some moisture, believe that's the last chance this week.

Oh and Pirate it's on the third page of this blog - funny how if you only quote part of the sentence you can make someone's statements look bad, where have we seen that before?

Off to vacation, see y'all - stay safe - hope ya get to track a wave that heads towards TX for a big wet (not too windy) recurve into the Midwest by the time I get back. Another wet frontal passage before it would be good too!

PatG
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
765. MrMixon
9:22 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
The definition of a derecho, as defined by Johns and Hirt in their 1987 paper that re-introduced the term "derecho" to the meteorological community, requires that the thunderstorm outflow winds reach 75 mph or greater at several points along the damage path.




Figure Above: Approximate number of times "moderate and high intensity" (MH) derechos affected points in the United States during the years 1980 through 2001. Areas affected by 3 or more derecho events are shaded in yellow, orange, and red (modified from Coniglio and Stensrud 2004).

Given that the maps depict the number of events that occurred over a 22-year period, dividing the values by 22 allows one to estimate the annual or seasonal frequency of derechos for any point. The frequency of MH derecho occurrence at any one point on the maps is related to the event numbers as follows:

6 events..............1 derecho occurrence every four years

11 events................1 derecho occurrence every two years

22 events.........................1 derecho occurrence every year

30 events................4 derecho occurrences every 3 years

CLICK HERE FOR SOURCE (NOAA)
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
764. Patrap
9:22 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.

Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 519 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING BINGHAMTON NY - KBGM 519 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING PITTSBURGH PA - KPBZ 518 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 418 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 417 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 414 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 510 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING STATE COLLEGE PA - KCTP 509 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING PITTSBURGH PA - KPBZ 509 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

TORNADO WARNING BINGHAMTON NY - KBGM 506 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127913
763. Patrap
9:19 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127913
762. Grothar
9:18 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Another good line Ohio-WV.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26050
761. WxGeekVA
9:17 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting Articuno:

Could you post the CAPE map or something?
please i said the magic word




You can get the CAPE data and other data here too at the SPC Mesoscale Analysis page
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3470
760. Barefootontherocks
9:17 PM GMT on July 26, 2012


SW end of the line may be weakening. Sure doesn't look like a classic derecho - 'cept for speed. Well, you all have fun speculating and spectatorating.

(T-42)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18567
759. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:17 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53613
758. MAweatherboy1
9:16 PM GMT on July 26, 2012

(this will update, it stands at 2-70-18 as I post it)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7754
757. Grothar
9:16 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Friends just called from NE Pennsylvania, an area about 20 minutes east of Elmira, NY. They said the storm came through fast with hail and winds about 50 mph. A few trees down and some power loss. Lots of large branches. They remain on Severe-Thunderstom-Tornado Watch until this evening. Maybe another round is getting ready
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26050
756. Articuno
9:16 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Because we are on the edge, CAPE is at 4500 J/kg at Dulles and the cap is breaking. We might be in for it after about 600

Could you post the CAPE map or something?
please i said the magic word
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2383
755. Tribucanes
9:14 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Good news, the wind reports remain low. Derecho is not in progress currently. Bad news, super-cells with embedded tornadoes are out there. I think they will remain the biggest threat along with moderate wind reports. No high severe level winds outside of the tornadoes either. So much time left in the day though. Line behind the one headed towards NYC and maybe Washington looks unpleasant too.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
754. Grothar
9:13 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26050
753. MAweatherboy1
9:13 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting Pirate999:


What's Boston area looking like?

Probably nothing until tonight.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7754
752. goosegirl1
9:13 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Why the hell is D.C in this?.



The system currently smashing PA might pull a bit far north to hit the DC area, but the storm currently in central Ohio may very well be a problem for you. We may get a one-two punch :(
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1228
751. Patrap
9:13 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
With the NWS you have the Tone, the Identifying NWS Office Location, then the type of warning then the Wording of Specific Parish/County.

All that takes 35 secs.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127913
750. Zappy
They pushed the for risk east. I'm now def in 5% risk area but no for watch yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
With the "new and improved" weather these derechos are becoming as common as a jar of pickled eggs in a 7-11. The only time I recall reading about them previously with such frequency in the East is back in the 1930's dust bowl years. Brought a lot of that dust into the DC to NYC area.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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