Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

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Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

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1634. Grothar
1:08 PM GMT on July 25, 2012
I wanted to give a wave to everybody.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27125
1633. Doppler22
1:00 PM GMT on July 25, 2012
Quoting Ameister12:
There's going to be a potential windspread severe weather event Thursday from SW Ohio to much of W/N Pennsylvania, into central New York, where the SPC are considering to upgrade that area to a moderate risk.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO SRN MO/NRN
AR...

...NEW ENGLAND/OH VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN PRINCIPAL AGREE THAT AN EARLY DAY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX ON THE ORDER OF 50-60KT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS UPSTATE NY
INTO NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD PROVE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR A CORRIDOR
OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF ATTENDANT SFC LOW. GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/SFC LOW AS IT
SPREADS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND ALLOWS FOR A MORE NWD EXTENSION OF
TSTMS INTO PORTIONS OF SRN ME THAN THE NAM. THIS EARLY ACTIVITY MAY
PRODUCE SOME HAIL BUT THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THURSDAY WILL OCCUR
ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY AND LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC TEMPERATURES MAY
SOAR WELL INTO THE UPPER 90S BY 18Z ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...LIKELY AS
FAR NE AS WRN PA WITH NEAR 90 POSSIBLE INTO PARTS OF WRN NY.
NEEDLESS TO SAY CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY BE ATTAINED WITH
THIS INTENSE HEATING AND COMBINED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE THERE IS
LITTLE DOUBT THAT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE ALONG
THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...500 MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF
40-50KT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THIS DEVELOPING ACTIVITY AND ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE
AS CONVECTION MATURES. AS A RESULT THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN THAT
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE COMMON WITH WARM SECTOR CONVECTION. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AN AREA FROM SRN OH
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/NRN PA INTO CNTRL NY MAY BE UPGRADED TO A
MODERATE CATEGORICAL RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

FARTHER SW ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT...STRONG HEATING WILL PROVE
INSTRUMENTAL IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN IND/IL INTO SRN
MO WITHIN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF
30KT IS EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CERTAINLY ORGANIZE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT WITHIN A FLOW REGIME THAT WOULD FAVOR ORGANIZED
MULTI-CELL LINE SEGMENTS OR CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. LOWER SEVERE PROBS
WILL ALSO BE EXTENDED INTO THE SRN PLAINS OF OK/NWRN TX WHERE PW
VALUES COULD APPROACH 2 INCHES WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
90S. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION FAVOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS BUT THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW REGIME THUS WILL MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SEVERE
PROBS.

Think that area might expand? I am literally right outside of the 30% chance
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3850
1632. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:58 PM GMT on July 25, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1631. ncstorm
12:57 PM GMT on July 25, 2012
I have been noticing that the GFS has been showing either a Low or strong area of vorticity right near bermuda in several runs..this may be the next area to watch for an invest..



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16215
1630. Bobbyweather
12:53 PM GMT on July 25, 2012

What's that south of Nova Scotia? And is 98L next to what I'm seeing?
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 90 Comments: 2678
1629. BahaHurican
12:51 PM GMT on July 25, 2012
Morning all. Can't stay long this morning as I have to leave fairly soon. But I note 98L wasn't able to get its act together. I didn't expect it to, given the amount of energy exhibited by that low to its SW.

So the hunt is still on for Ernesto. It's starting to look like it's going to be another wimpy Ernesto like '06...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
1628. StormTracker2K
12:50 PM GMT on July 25, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
That wave off of Africa has a nice low with it and plenty of convection.I'm surprised the NHC hasn't picked up on this as it has been persistent for a while now.


I give up with the NHC. I mean really 98L should have been Enresto last evening. This wave near the Cape Verde Islands is one to watch in my opinion as it could sneak up on people in the Leeward islands and PR next week.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1627. washingtonian115
12:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


You want something big not a small disorganized system that takes forever to form. I agree a CV system is what this Daddy likes as well!
That wave off of Africa has a nice low with it and plenty of convection.I'm surprised the NHC hasn't picked up on this as it has been persistent for a while now.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17658
1626. Tropicsweatherpr
12:44 PM GMT on July 25, 2012
I don't care about the trough split that may happen next week.I want a decent C.V storm to track.

Same here. A long tracker makes you glued to computer.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
1625. StormTracker2K
12:41 PM GMT on July 25, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't care about the trough split that may happen next week.I want a decent C.V storm to track.


You want something big not a small disorganized system that takes forever to form. I agree a CV system is what this Daddy likes as well!
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1624. weathermanwannabe
12:39 PM GMT on July 25, 2012
Off to get some work done. See Yall later.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9377
1623. StormTracker2K
12:38 PM GMT on July 25, 2012
Here's a morning jam for the blog.

Link
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1622. washingtonian115
12:34 PM GMT on July 25, 2012
I don't care about the trough split that may happen next week.I want a decent C.V storm to track.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17658
1621. weathermanwannabe
12:33 PM GMT on July 25, 2012
Here is the am Caribbean discussion from NCEP. Wave entering the Antilles over the weekend bringing organized convection to PR and other parts on Sunday.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
705 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WITH AXIS WEST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. NORTH OF THIS AXIS...A WEAK TUTT MEANDERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE TUTT ALOFT IS A SHALLOW FEATURE...AND AS A RESULT IT IS HAVING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN THIS PATTERN...THE PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW MOISTURE CONTENT VALUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AT LOW LEVELS... EASTERLY TRADES PREVAIL...WITH 850 HPA WINDS OF 10-15KTS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE PATTERN IS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TUTT TO THE NORTH...MEANWHILE...IS TO RETROGRESS INTO HISPANIOLA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IN THIS PATTERN...UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT 60 HRS...WITH MODELS SHOWING A STRONG CAP INVERSION AND LOW PWAT AMOUNTS. THIS IS TO GENERALLY FAVOR FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...AS THE TUTT PULLS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE INTENSIFIES...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL START TO SURGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. MODELS THEN AGREE ON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CLUSTERING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

LATER OVER THE WEEKEND...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE AS A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING AROUND THIS FEATURE AS IT ENTERS THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SATURDAY EVENING...AND EXPANDING INTO THE USVI/PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. DURING THAT PERIOD PWAT WILL PEAK AT 40-45MM...FAVORING ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WITH MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.


MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)


Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9377
1620. unknowncomic
12:29 PM GMT on July 25, 2012
My prediction:The first developing CV storm will be the low about to exit Africa. It will encounter shear and if it develops south it goes to bay of campeche, jamaica etc.  If it gets a bit higher in latitude it take a track toward bahamas, florida and gulf of m. Shear will keep it from becoming a big threat.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
1619. Ameister12
12:21 PM GMT on July 25, 2012
There's going to be a potential windspread severe weather event Thursday from SW Ohio to much of W/N Pennsylvania, into central New York, where the SPC are considering to upgrade that area to a moderate risk.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO SRN MO/NRN
AR...

...NEW ENGLAND/OH VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN PRINCIPAL AGREE THAT AN EARLY DAY MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX ON THE ORDER OF 50-60KT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS UPSTATE NY
INTO NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD PROVE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR A CORRIDOR
OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF ATTENDANT SFC LOW. GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/SFC LOW AS IT
SPREADS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND ALLOWS FOR A MORE NWD EXTENSION OF
TSTMS INTO PORTIONS OF SRN ME THAN THE NAM. THIS EARLY ACTIVITY MAY
PRODUCE SOME HAIL BUT THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THURSDAY WILL OCCUR
ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY AND LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC TEMPERATURES MAY
SOAR WELL INTO THE UPPER 90S BY 18Z ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...LIKELY AS
FAR NE AS WRN PA WITH NEAR 90 POSSIBLE INTO PARTS OF WRN NY.
NEEDLESS TO SAY CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY BE ATTAINED WITH
THIS INTENSE HEATING AND COMBINED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE THERE IS
LITTLE DOUBT THAT SCATTERED-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE ALONG
THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...500 MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF
40-50KT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THIS DEVELOPING ACTIVITY AND ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE
AS CONVECTION MATURES. AS A RESULT THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN THAT
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE COMMON WITH WARM SECTOR CONVECTION. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AN AREA FROM SRN OH
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/NRN PA INTO CNTRL NY MAY BE UPGRADED TO A
MODERATE CATEGORICAL RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

FARTHER SW ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT...STRONG HEATING WILL PROVE
INSTRUMENTAL IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN IND/IL INTO SRN
MO WITHIN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF
30KT IS EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CERTAINLY ORGANIZE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT WITHIN A FLOW REGIME THAT WOULD FAVOR ORGANIZED
MULTI-CELL LINE SEGMENTS OR CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. LOWER SEVERE PROBS
WILL ALSO BE EXTENDED INTO THE SRN PLAINS OF OK/NWRN TX WHERE PW
VALUES COULD APPROACH 2 INCHES WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
90S. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION FAVOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS BUT THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW REGIME THUS WILL MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SEVERE
PROBS.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5080
1618. ncstorm
12:21 PM GMT on July 25, 2012
Good Morning..

The Nogaps is still trying to develop the african wave..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16215
1617. CaneHunter031472
12:15 PM GMT on July 25, 2012
It looks like it things will start getting interesting soon.

Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 202
1616. weathermanwannabe
12:05 PM GMT on July 25, 2012
1615. StormTracker2K 8:02 AM EDT on July 25, 2012

Persistence is key; I just updated my entry below as you posted. It's baroclinic at the moment due to the ULL in the area.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9377
1615. StormTracker2K
12:02 PM GMT on July 25, 2012
This system in the Gulf is persistant! If it continues to sit here it may try to spin up.





Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1614. weathermanwannabe
11:55 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

CORRECTED LOCATION

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 20 MPH AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS LATER TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


Only other feature that catches my eye this morning is that mini blob firing up in the NE Gulf south of the Florida Big bend. Baroclinic at the moment due to the proximity to the ULL Tutt cell over the Florida Big Bend Coast.

250 mb ULL

Link

Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9377
1613. weathermanwannabe
11:48 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Hello,
Is there anybody in there?
Just nod if you can hear me
Is there anyone home?



Good Morning. Looks like the gang is still here this AM.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9377
1612. StormTracker2K
11:45 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Here's the GFS Ensembles and it gives the idea that the Euro maybe on to something. Either way expect things to get real stormy next week across the SE US as a trough digs all the way down into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1611. MAweatherboy1
11:44 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Second moderate earthquake in 12 hours:

TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
129 AM HST WED JUL 25 2012

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT

THIS STATEMENT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. NO ACTION REQUIRED.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0121 AM HST 25 JUL 2012
COORDINATES - 9.8 SOUTH 160.2 EAST
LOCATION - SOLOMON ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 6.6 MOMENT

EVALUATION

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT. A
DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO
TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8002
1610. StormTracker2K
11:39 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Good morning I see we still have no Ernesto. Expect 98L to be named Ernesto after Hurricane Season as 98L was no doubt a Tropical Storm yesterday evening. Also this area from the NE Gulf to the SE US coast will have to be watched in 9 to 10 days for a possible trough split type storm.


0Z Euro
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1609. MAweatherboy1
11:38 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Good morning... The remains of 98L


Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8002
1608. Tropicsweatherpr
11:35 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Good morning.

We can say bye to 98L and 90E.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 20
MPH AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS LATER TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 25 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
1607. LargoFl
11:30 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41838
1606. LargoFl
11:27 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
...................good morning folks, for us in central and south florida its back to a normal summer day..........have a great day folks
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41838
1605. Slamguitar
10:54 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Damn!! Now Lake Michigan is 97% above 22 degrees c, and Lake Superior is building up to that mark itself pretty quickly. I just can't get over all that purple...





Beginning of the month:

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1604. AussieStorm
10:47 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Dramatic tornado video from Saskatchewan, Canada! July 24, 2012

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
1603. AussieStorm
10:42 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Quoting allancalderini:
do you think 98L can still be Ernesto.

it's a 1007mb low. it will be moving into cooler waters. IMO 98L won't make it.



Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
1601. HurricaneHunterJoe
9:41 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Quoting allancalderini:
do you think 98L can still be Ernesto.
Possible but personally, I don't think it will. :(
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5243
1600. HurricaneHunterJoe
9:39 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Be back in the morning
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1599. allancalderini
9:37 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Where is that Low in the North Atlantjc headed? Iceland?
do you think 98L can still be Ernesto.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
1598. allancalderini
9:37 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
went from ts to cat 5 in a day?
yep
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1597. HurricaneHunterJoe
9:34 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
went from ts to cat 5 in a day?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5243
1596. HurricaneHunterJoe
9:31 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Ethel from 1960?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5243
1595. HurricaneHunterJoe
9:25 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Where is that Low in the North Atlantjc headed? Iceland?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5243
1594. allancalderini
9:24 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Let's see if one of them can pull a Vincente. He was quite the storm huh? Thats gotta be one of the most rapid intensification's I can recall. Didn't it go from like 974mb to 933mb in 6 hours? WOW,Now that was impressive!
that mean that the rapid intensification of Ethel to a cat 5 might had been true.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
1593. HurricaneHunterJoe
9:16 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Let's see if one of them can pull a Vincente. He was quite the storm huh? Thats gotta be one of the most rapid intensification's I can recall. Didn't it go from like 974mb to 933mb in 6 hours? WOW,Now that was impressive!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5243
1592. HurricaneHunterJoe
9:12 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
There is a better looking low hauling buns across Africa,soon to enter the Atlantic
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5243
1591. HurricaneHunterJoe
9:11 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Quoting JLPR2:
Couldnt sleep so gave a look at our Tropical low.

+Vorticity is increasing.


+Convection also increased, although it's not that intense.


-Convergence is confined to the ITCZ.


-It's going to absorb that bit of SAL in it's north side.


I say bring them on!
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1590. BahaHurican
8:50 AM GMT on July 25, 2012


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1589. BahaHurican
8:19 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
This is the most detailed report I've found so far about impacts outside of Hong Kong.

Death and devastation as typhoon makes landfall
Jul 25, 2012


A tree lies across a road yesterday after it was uprooted in a rainstorm spawned by Typhoon Vicente in Enping City, Guangdong Province. Three people were killed in Guangdong.

Photo by Xinhua

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
THREE people were killed and six were reported missing as Typhoon Vicente made landfall early yesterday morning in Guangdong Province just minutes after it hit neighboring Hong Kong, leaving dozens injured and bringing the financial hub's businesses to a standstill.

Vicente hit Hong Kong at 4am with wind speeds that reached around 140 kilometers per hour, moderating to 59kph.

The government said 118 people had been injured during the night, with 52 admitted to hospital. Flying debris struck several people in the central business district and subway stations were converted into temporary shelters to accommodate stranded passengers.

At daybreak, the normally bustling central district resembled a ghost town, with the stock market and major banks closed, and businesses shut.

Dozens of flights at Hong Kong airport were cancelled or delayed, and ferry services linking Hong Kong island with Kowloon, the New Territories and outlying islands suspended.

After smashing through Hong Kong, Vicente headed to Guangdong.

It made landfall in coastal areas in Guangdong's Taishan City at around 4:15am, with wind speeds of up to 144kph near its center, spawning torrential rain, the provincial meteorological station said. As of 5pm yesterday, Vicente had caused 305 million yuan (US$47.7 million) in direct economic losses in Taishan alone, according to the municipal flood control headquarters.

The typhoon is expected to move northwest but is weakening. Gales and downpours are expected to hit western Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta today and tomorrow.

High-speed train services between Guangzhou and Shenzhen have been temporarily halted, the Guangzhou Railway Group Corp said, and speeds on the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed line reduced.

All shipping lines across the Qiongzhou Strait, between Leizhou Peninsula in Guangdong and Hainan Island, have been closed since Sunday night.

More than 10 flights were delayed by four to six hours on average at Nanning Wuxu International Airport in Guangdong's neighboring Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region yesterday.

In Guangdong, more than 710,000 households had power blackouts. However, electricity was back on in 470,000 households by 6pm after 5,760 workers were sent to repair the facilities, China Southern Power Grid said.

The meteorological station in Haikou, Hainan's capital, issued a red storm alert yesterday, the highest level in China's four-tier warning system.

Thirty-two flights were canceled at the Phoenix International Airport in Hainan's Sanya as of yesterday morning.

Seas off the coast of Guangdong, Fujian and Hainan provinces are expected to experience waves of 3 to 5 meters in height, according to the National Maritime Forecast Station, which warned local authorities and the public to take precautionary measures.


Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
1588. JLPR2
8:17 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Couldnt sleep so gave a look at our Tropical low.

+Vorticity is increasing.


+Convection also increased, although it's not that intense.


-Convergence is confined to the ITCZ.


-It's going to absorb that bit of SAL in it's north side.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
1587. BahaHurican
8:12 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Hmmm... some in China are attributing the heavy rainfall in Beijing to Vicente... as seen here:

Also found this story about Chinese met's reaction to Vicente's RI:

Scientists fooled by rapid growth of storm's ferocity
Cheung Chi-fai
Jul 25, 2012
A squatter area wrecked by Typhoon Rose in 1971.

Typhoon Vicente took most people by surprise with its hurricane-force winds - not least atmospheric scientists puzzled by how it intensified in such a short time and distance.

"The typhoon's action was beyond the expectation of many scientists watching it," said Professor Johnny Chan Chung-leung, dean of the School of Energy and Environment at City University.

"Even the United States, Japan and China didn't get it right this time. And everyone is discussing it now."

A chair professor of atmospheric science, Chan said Vicente went through a rare "rapid intensification" as it was developing in the South China Sea, transforming from a tropical depression into a severe typhoon within two days.

Chan said Vicente might have encountered a warm pool of water in the sea or there might have been some atmospheric flow pattern changes that gave rise to such rapid transformation. But more analysis was needed to find out the causes.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
1586. BahaHurican
8:01 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Quoting allancalderini:
is convection redeveloping or dissipating?
Looks like it's rebuilding a little bit...

OPC doesn't expect much of this...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
1585. PlazaRed
8:01 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:


NASA Satellites Observe Widespread Melting Event on Greenland

‘Scientists Say They’ve Never Seen Anything Like This Before’


Nearly the entire ice sheet covering Greenland—from its thin coastal edges to its two-mile-thick center—experienced some degree of melting for several days in July 2012. According to measurements from three satellites and an analysis by NASA and university scientists, an estimated 97 percent of the top layer of the ice sheet had thawed at some point in mid-July, the largest extent of surface melting observed in three decades of satellite observations.


This is the sort of post you would normally expect to see only on April fools day.
I would not have expected to see this kind of event yet!
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2152
1584. Tribucanes
7:56 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Hopefully slowly Baha, we'd miss ya. And with that, I'm really out. See you tomorrow Baha.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.