Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

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Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

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1234. Grothar
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Grothar, the wave that will emerge Africa on Sunday (Now over Ethiopia) is the one to watch down the road IMO as waves in front will moist the air. What do you think?


I think that is Mali.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25970
So let me get this straight..The GFS goes from developing a decent cat 2 hurricane on the run yesterday night to nada today.I wonder what it saw in the atmosphere to make it change it's mind?.

And let us not forget it was showing at least two weak tropical storms yesterday afternoon.It started to develop it at about 90 hours.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16706
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I am watching the next Sunday wave that will emerge as it was the one GFS developed at the 00z run.
indeed.. for clarification ;)
moisture is lifting with these strong waves, the train is pulling into station..
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Quoting Minnemike:
you can see in the CIMSS preciptable water loop how the previous wave tracked gave up some moisture to the new one we've been watching today.. the area is definitely moistening up, think you could be right on the one you're watching :)


I am watching the next Sunday wave that will emerge as it was the one GFS developed at the 00z run.
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anyone think 98L is done? or we still can get Ernesto out of it?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4214
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Grothar, the wave that will emerge Africa on Sunday (Now over Ethiopia) is the one to watch down the road IMO as waves in front will moist the air. What do you think?
you can see in the CIMSS preciptable water loop how the previous wave tracked gave up some moisture to the new one we've been watching today.. the area is definitely moistening up, think you could be right on the one you're watching :)
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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:




omg i would re move that


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114914
Quoting BobWallace:


That it's been warmer in the past is "substantial data", if I understand what you mean by that.

When the Earth's orbit has brought the Earth closer to the Sun the Earth has heated up.

That isn't happening this time.

Previous hot cycles had causes. This hot cycle has a cause and all the data says we be da cause.

I'm open to reliable data that proves that the Earth is not warming.

And I'm open to reliable data that proves that the warming is not due to the higher concentration of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Got some? Bring it!


I believe the world is warming, I just believe that it has happened before. Its much harder to prove humans aren't causing it than it is to provide evidence that we are influencing it. Am I saying we as a species have no influence? Of course not, and I believe we should do everything we can to clean up our world. That doesn't mean we are the sole cause of the warming.
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Quoting BobWallace:


The Russians are building some new ice breakers.

Their calculations are that by 2018 the Arctic ice will be so degraded that they will be able to keep the Northern Passage open year round.

They started shipping through the NP some weeks back and in a few more weeks they will be able to use the NP without ice breaker assistance.

That is very interesting.
If they can keep the North East passage open all year then they can charge a premium rate to guide ships through. A sort of Arctic version of the Panama or Suez canals.
With probably 6000 miles cut off the Pacific to Atlantic sea routs there's going to be a bonanza up there plus they can also exploit the tourist trade who have always had a zest for the unknown and allready flock to the Norwegian fjords and other remote areas.
Possibly a really big nuclear powered ship could plough through anything that's left of the Arctic's winter ice sheet. It would not be of any ecological threat as its effect on the planet would be negligible but all interesting stuff.
I think I remember the Russians breaking through the ice to Noam in Alaska last winter.
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The tropical wave over Africa looks good.

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1221. Grothar
That other feature over Africa is looking better.




To see those little specs of white in it shows some very high cloud tops.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25970
1220. bappit
Studies indicate that the maritime climate of western Europe is just that, a maritime climate. Of course it will be warmer than the eastern coast of North America with air coming off a land mass.
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Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Grothar, the wave that will emerge Africa on Sunday (Now over Ethiopia) is the one to watch down the road IMO as waves in front will moist the air. What do you think?
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Quoting PlazaRed:

The north of Scotland some 60 Degrees north of the equator seldom gets freezing temps in the winter while other areas of Canada And Scandinavia at a similar latitude are frozen solid for months.
The gulf stream effects continue right up the West coast of Norway and probably beyond.
I, possibly in my naive delusions about how things might work, think that the breaking of the summer "Arctic Ice Plug" which is probably about to occur may bring about a new view of how we must look at the future of the climate in the Northern hemisphere. It will also have a dramatic effect on Northern Hemisphere shipping routes.


The Russians are building some new ice breakers.

Their calculations are that by 2018 the Arctic ice will be so degraded that they will be able to keep the Northern Passage open year round.

They started shipping through the NP some weeks back and in a few more weeks they will be able to use the NP without ice breaker assistance.
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1010 MB NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 700
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 37N54W IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AS IT GRADUALLY LOSES FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 15-20 KNOTS AND IS
LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES
COOLER WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION THAT WAS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER HAS DISSIPATED.

...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...

A 1011 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ABOUT 180 NM OFF THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N19W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 19W-25W.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Question, how has it has been warmer in the past not substantial data?


Here's what NASA says...

"Correlations between rising CO2 levels and global surface temperatures suggest that our planet is on a one-way warming trend triggered by human activity. Indeed, studies by paleoclimatologists reveal that natural variability caused by changes in the Sun and volcanic eruptions can largely explain deviations in global temperature from 1000 AD until 1850 AD, near the beginning of the Industrial Era. After that, the best models require a human-induced greenhouse effect"

Link

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Quoting bappit:
The Gulf Stream peters out and becomes part of the North Atlantic Drift somewhere off Nova Scotia.


The north of Scotland some 60 Degrees north of the equator seldom gets freezing temps in the winter while other areas of Canada And Scandinavia at a similar latitude are frozen solid for months.
The gulf stream effects continue right up the West coast of Norway and probably beyond.
I, possibly in my naive delusions about how things might work, think that the breaking of the summer "Arctic Ice Plug" which is probably about to occur may bring about a new view of how we must look at the future of the climate in the Northern hemisphere. It will also have a dramatic effect on Northern Hemisphere shipping routes.
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Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
That wave off of Africa does not wanna dissipate..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16706
1211. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


I know what you mean. I seem to have some connection to all those buried cities.
You probably taught at a few of them...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20916
hey everybody im back!!!!
i see hurricane season getting crunk! and my two year anniversary is at 12 am!! but back to business i see that the storm off the african coast causing headaches. guys and gals whats setting this stage up for this thang and where do yall think this may go? (hopefully out to sea!)
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1209. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


I went there and it was a fascinating and highly developed culture. What little is known about it is fascinating. It explains a lot of the customs that are still found in the region. They had a very sophisticated social system.
What year were you there Gro.?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20916
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Question, how has it has been warmer in the past not substantial data?


That it's been warmer in the past is "substantial data", if I understand what you mean by that.

When the Earth's orbit has brought the Earth closer to the Sun the Earth has heated up.

That isn't happening this time.

Previous hot cycles had causes. This hot cycle has a cause and all the data says we be da cause.

I'm open to reliable data that proves that the Earth is not warming.

And I'm open to reliable data that proves that the warming is not due to the higher concentration of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Got some? Bring it!
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Quoting KoritheMan:

By the time they reached either location, they would most likely be extratropical anyway.
Vince didn't, although it had weakened significantly. Canada has had tropical cyclones the past two years. In the off chance that it remains tropical they should give it a name.
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Quoting Grothar:


It was, why do you think we wore sheets?


I'm glad I looked up the page and saw this post in context.

When I saw it quoted down the page my first thought was sheets with hoods. And I got worried.

I suppose that comes from growing up in the South....

(I'm adding a " ;o)" for those whose humor functions are challenged.)
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Quoting BobWallace:


Me too!!!

I'd love for someone to disprove global warming with real, substantial data.

Prove it! Hollow claims are, er, hollow.


Question, how has it has been warmer in the past not substantial data?
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1204. bappit
The Gulf Stream peters out and becomes part of the North Atlantic Drift somewhere off Nova Scotia.

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Quoting hurricane23:


Wave looks impressive BUT still plenty of SAL all over the Atlantic. Models suggest a trof should be ready to scoop up what ever is out there. It's been the norm last few seasons with semi-permanent troffing ready to turns this things away from the U.S. one can hope that luck continues.

Development chances appear slim. Here is NWS PR this afternoon.

NEXT SIG CHANCE OF RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK UNTIL NEXT THU AUG 02 AS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 20W REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS THE BEST WAVE THAT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON AND IT APPEARS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW PRES AREA AND FAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WAVE IS SURROUNDED BY LARGE AREA OF STABLE AIR COVERING THE EASTERN ATLC. IN ADDITION...WAVE IS FCST TO ENCOUNTER A MORE HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ONCE IT NEARS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEXT WEEK. SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS WAVE WILL EVOLVE WITH TIME BUT CURRENT WX PATTERN OF TUTT/SAL AND UNFVRBLMJO/POSITIVE VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES DO NOT FAVOR MUCH CHANCE
OF DEVELOPMENT OR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS
That trough was there on the 12z run of the GFS today, but it was less amplified in last night's 0z run. I don't think there has been enough consistency with regards to the synoptic pattern to definitively say "trough" or "ridge".
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Happy anniverary, PlazaRed
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21864
Quoting Grothar:
The wave does look good, but it will probably be a few days before they declare anything. It should be moving into a more favorable are in about 3 or 4 days. Shear is expected to be lessening in the mid-Atlantic and it should be moving in a west to WNW movement. Even though the high is strong, there should be some lifting on the western periphery by the time it gets to the Antilles. I would therefore expect it to be North of the Antilles.

As you can see, the current storminess over Central Africa looks very impressive as well. We have two nice blobs to look at now.









Wave looks impressive BUT still plenty of SAL all over the Atlantic. Models suggest a trof should be ready to scoop up what ever is out there. It's been the norm last few seasons with semi-permanent troffing ready to turns this things away from the U.S. one can hope that luck continues.

Development chances appear slim. Here is NWS PR this afternoon.

NEXT SIG CHANCE OF RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK UNTIL NEXT THU AUG 02 AS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 20W REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS THE BEST WAVE THAT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON AND IT APPEARS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW PRES AREA AND FAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WAVE IS SURROUNDED BY LARGE AREA OF STABLE AIR COVERING THE EASTERN ATLC. IN ADDITION...WAVE IS FCST TO ENCOUNTER A MORE HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ONCE IT NEARS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEXT WEEK. SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS WAVE WILL EVOLVE WITH TIME BUT CURRENT WX PATTERN OF TUTT/SAL AND UNFVRBLMJO/POSITIVE VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES DO NOT FAVOR MUCH CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Disagreeing with global warming is fine. If your argument is grounded in solid science and not lies and misinformation then you have nothing to worry about. The crowd here on WU is split often on the subject of man driven GW. I would love to hear a solid, science based argument against GW that has verifiable facts to back it up. In fact I've been waiting on that argument to be made here in that fashion since I've been here.


Me too!!!

I'd love for someone to disprove global warming with real, substantial data.

Prove it! Hollow claims are, er, hollow.
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1199. pottery
Quoting PlazaRed:

On the 2007 map, If you chop out that top right ice leg towards Russia from the North Pole then you have a straight run from Iceland to the Pacific. I'll not bore anybody with the implications of this but as the gulf stream flows more and more to the North the top edge of it will have a chance to have good nibble at any of the Easterly face of the ice flank that still remains.
All good and interesting stuff for the deniers to chew over!
Just sort of noticed that I have written a 1000 comments since I just dropped in to check on a few SST's 18 months ago. Who would have thought I could have come up with so much rubbish in such a short time?

Surely you are wrong...
I distinctly remember a comment from you that made sense about 16 months ago.
But wait! I may be mistaken....

LOLOL
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24209
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


"In the thirty years leading up to the 1970s, available temperature recordings suggested that there was a cooling trend. As a result some scientists suggested that the current inter-glacial period could rapidly draw to a close, which might result in the Earth plunging into a new ice age over the next few centuries. This idea could have been reinforced by the knowledge that the smog that climatologists call ‘aerosols’ – emitted by human activities into the atmosphere – also caused cooling. In fact, as temperature recording has improved in coverage, it’s become apparent that the cooling trend was most pronounced in northern land areas and that global temperature trends were in fact relatively steady during the period prior to 1970.

At the same time as some scientists were suggesting we might be facing another ice age, a greater number published contradicting studies. Their papers showed that the growing amount of greenhouse gasses that humans were putting into the atmosphere would cause much greater warming – warming that would a much greater influence on global temperature than any possible natural or human-caused cooling effects.

By 1980 the predictions about ice ages had ceased, due to the overwhelming evidence contained in an increasing number of reports that warned of global warming. Unfortunately, the small number of predictions of an ice age appeared to be much more interesting than those of global warming, so it was those sensational 'Ice Age' stories in the press that so many people tend to remember."

http://www.skepticalscience.com/ice-age-predictio ns-in-1970s.htm

Following WWII the Earth did experience a bit of cooling. We now know that was almost certainly a function of burning a lot of dirty coal which put a large amount of particulates into the atmosphere.

Those particulates acted something like a sun screen, blocking the Sun's rays from striking the Earth.

A lot of the stuff pumped into the atmosphere was SO2 which came back down as acid rain which harmed people's health, killed forests, ruined lakes, and ate away at buildings and outdoor statues.

Once we stopped the acid rain global temps took off upward once more. During the cooling period (sometimes called Global Dimming) the CO2 from fossil fuels still reached the atmosphere. We didn't gain anything.
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Grats on getting to 1000 Plaza.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
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1194. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
I have always been fascinated by old cities that were buried for thousands of years and then rediscovered. More are found now due to satellites. There is an enigma associated with all of them and each one is different. All the souls that lived and died there have a unique story to tell.


I know what you mean. I seem to have some connection to all those buried cities.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25970
Quoting Skyepony:
Even with the recent shift in Arctic winds I have a hard time seeing 2007 holding it's record for least sea ice extent.

Here is late Sept 2007..melts up to pink & purple..


Today..

On the 2007 map, If you chop out that top right ice leg towards Russia from the North Pole then you have a straight run from Iceland to the Pacific. I'll not bore anybody with the implications of this but as the gulf stream flows more and more to the North the top edge of it will have a chance to have good nibble at any of the Easterly face of the ice flank that still remains.
All good and interesting stuff for the deniers to chew over!
Just sort of noticed that I have written a 1000 comments since I just dropped in to check on a few SST's 18 months ago. Who would have thought I could have come up with so much rubbish in such a short time?
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
I don't understand why some people have issues with naming these brief extropical originating systems. I think that's like saying that all the synthetic elements shouldn't be counted since they weren't around 40 years ago. I understand that in general these storms don't make any impact but suppose that one formed and hit Canada or managed to make it to Europe then the NHC we be caught with their pants down for not issuing advisories.
By the time they reached either location, they would most likely be extratropical anyway.
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I don't understand why some people have issues with naming these brief extropical originating systems. I think that's like saying that all the synthetic elements shouldn't be counted since they weren't around 40 years ago. I understand that in general these storms don't make any impact but suppose that one formed and hit Canada or managed to make it to Europe then the NHC we be caught with their pants down for not issuing advisories.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
 I would love to hear a solid, science based argument against GW that has verifiable facts to back it up.
Problem is, there isn't any.
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Disagreeing with global warming is fine. If your argument is grounded in solid science and not lies and misinformation then you have nothing to worry about. The crowd here on WU is split often on the subject of man driven GW. I would love to hear a solid, science based argument against GW that has verifiable facts to back it up. In fact I've been waiting on that argument to be made here in that fashion since I've been here.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
My blog on the Atlantic
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

I saw on yahoo just a week ago, how these scientists cut open trees that were THOUSANDS of years old and scientists concluded that it was hotter on Earth back in Roman Times, than it is now...


One study. Needs confirmation. And it was for only one place on the globe. We don't know if it was representative or an outlier.

But's jump past the data we've got an assume that it is good data and that those temps were world wide. What would that mean?

First, after being that hot the planet cooled off for the next 1800 years or so.

And then people started burning lots of fossil fuels, creating large amounts of carbon dioxide, trapping heat that would have otherwise escaped into space, heated up the planet, and changed the climate.

--

Each heating and cooling phase has a reason.

"Natural" =/= magic.

Mankind is part of nature. We're the part forcing the changes this time. Before it might have been shifts in Earth's orbit, changes in solar output, meteor strikes, etc. This time it am us.

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1186. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


I went there and it was a fascinating and highly developed culture. What little is known about it is fascinating. It explains a lot of the customs that are still found in the region. They had a very sophisticated social system.
I have always been fascinated by old cities that were buried for thousands of years and then rediscovered. More are found now due to satellites. There is an enigma associated with all of them and each one is different. All the souls that lived and died there have a unique story to tell.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20916
I think North Carolina is done with the storm...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7966
Quoting OldLeatherneck:


Actually there is a Climate Change Blog here on the Weather Underground. The majority of the posts are filled with updated factual scientific information regarding the many aspects of Global Warming and the resultant impacts on Climate and Weather. The atmosphere on this blog is very collegial as well as informative. Yes, we are interrupted occasionally by trolls who are just baiting us with disinformation, but we treat them politely and with respect, often by providing them links to sources of information that may help them understand the science(s) behind GW and how the changing climate impacts weather-related events across the globe.

Please join us on occasion, whether to share information or just to "Lurk 'n Learn".


Anyone who disagrees with global warming is a troll? And liberals are supposedly open-minded people...

There were afternoon thunderstorms in Houston today.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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