Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

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Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

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1283. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
..SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1010 MB NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 700
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 37N54W IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AS IT GRADUALLY LOSES FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 15-20 KNOTS AND IS
LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES
COOLER WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION THAT WAS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER HAS DISSIPATED.
...so it is turning tropical?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39027
1282. LargoFl
..SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1010 MB NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 700
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 37N54W IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AS IT GRADUALLY LOSES FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 15-20 KNOTS AND IS
LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES
COOLER WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION THAT WAS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER HAS DISSIPATED.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39027
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

hawt
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2462
Quoting Grothar:
It looks like Greenland may get a tropical entity.



NASA Satellites Observe Widespread Melting Event on Greenland

‘Scientists Say They’ve Never Seen Anything Like This Before’


Nearly the entire ice sheet covering Greenland—from its thin coastal edges to its two-mile-thick center—experienced some degree of melting for several days in July 2012. According to measurements from three satellites and an analysis by NASA and university scientists, an estimated 97 percent of the top layer of the ice sheet had thawed at some point in mid-July, the largest extent of surface melting observed in three decades of satellite observations.

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1279. Grothar
Quoting Tribucanes:
For sure Gulfbreeze, just for you I'll remain silent the rest of the night on it. No one's ever nagged anyone to the truth. :) (Not insinuating Gulfbreeze that you do or don't believe in man driven GW.)



Not married, huh?? :)
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1278. txjac
Quoting Tribucanes:



Yes, I agree. But living in Houston, where jobs are plentiful, I see many "working the system" to get assistance when they could be working. I too have been down and out ...and worked two jobs to pull myself back up. It's not only corporations that work the system.

I think that RitaEvac mentioned there were showers here in Houston today ...they totally missed my neck of the woods ...maybe tomorrow
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Wow the blog just died...
98L has almost dissipated...and the models show nothing in the tropics.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17069

Quoting Grothar:
It looks like Greenland may get a tropical entity.

Well its climate IS changing...
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Wow the blog just died...
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3474
For sure Gulfbreeze, just for you I'll remain silent the rest of the night on it. No one's ever nagged anyone to the truth. :) (Not insinuating Gulfbreeze that you do or don't believe in man driven GW.)
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
1273. Grothar
Well, Good night, boys and girls. I've got to go. There is a "Golden Girls" marathon on tonight and I can't miss those "babes". It's like watching a fast forward of "Charlie's Angels". See you tomorrow. And remember these words...."A mind is a terrible thing.."
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Quoting Tribucanes:
GW talk here ain't ever going back in the box for long periods. Corporations would LOVE it if it did though. When Corporations drive the scientific discussion and not scientists then we have a very big problem.
Just untill after Hurricane Season.
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Corporations apparently aren't only people, but their the only people that matter anymore.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting Tribucanes:
A free market (capitalism) only works when checks and balances remain in place. Then it serves the people. Corporations have been lawyering their way around these checks and balances for a long time now with a learned efficiency. Then a free market serves only certain individuals and corporations. As soon as legislation is passed, corporations have already found loopholes to get around the new legislation; and I mean every time virtually. Communism, capitalism, socialism, etc, etc are all susceptible to the human nature of GREED.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
GW talk here ain't ever going back in the box for long periods. Corporations would LOVE it if it did though. When Corporations drive the scientific discussion and not scientists then we have a very big problem.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting Doppler22:
So... judging by the look of them and the NHC looks like both invests are starting to say goodbye
No..it's a normal thing called D-min.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17069
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:


I need a +100000 button...
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3474
So... judging by the look of them and the NHC looks like both invests are starting to say goodbye
Anyone agree or disagree??
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1262. Grothar
It looks like Greenland may get a tropical entity.

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Thanks guys.But the GFS has not been consistent with it.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17069
I sure hope we get somthing to track so we can put all of the GW talk back in the box!!
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1259. Grothar
Quoting Minnemike:
i'm still trying to figure out the definition 'it'... have been since the mid 90's!!


It is the neuter form of the 3rd person "he and she." Mostly refers to inanimate objects. Although one may often hear a ship or a plane referred to as "She", or even on star Trek, the enterprise was referred to as "she". Obviously a carry-over from the Navy days.

Since English does not reflect its nouns, it is somethimes a hard concept. For instance in German, the word for girl is das Mädchen and Miss is das Fräulein. Since the endings are neuter. The girl and Miss, in this case, are referred to as "it"
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:


check the depth. Not shallow enough for a tsunami.

Region: SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
Geographic coordinates: 2.654N, 96.191E
Magnitude: 6.6 Mw
Depth: 45.9 km
Universal Time (UTC): 25 Jul 2012 00:27:48
Time near the Epicenter: 25 Jul 2012 07:27:48
Local standard time in your area: 25 Jul 2012 00:27:48
Location with respect to nearby cities: 292 km (181 miles) WSW (249 degrees) of Medan, Sumatra, Indonesia
309 km (192 miles) WNW (290 degrees) of Sibolga, Sumatra, Indonesia
330 km (205 miles) SSE (163 degrees) of Banda Aceh, Sumatra, Indonesia
614 km (382 miles) W (265 degrees) of KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Where is the model run that the GFS is developing this?.


00Z run from last night had it as a pretty good sized system going just north of the Islands and being just north of PR and DR on August 9th
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Last night's 0z GFS:

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Where is the model run that the GFS is developing this?.


We are discussing about the wave GFS had last night at 00z run developing that will emerge on Sunday.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Bingo! There it is. That's ok my friend. We all are looking at Africa right now as the train is starting to roll.
Where is the model run that the GFS is developing this?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17069
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Tropics. I apologize. (I know you don't see that word on here much) There is a cluster over Ethiopia, too! It just didn't show on my first image. Here is one of Eastern Africa. It really does look like they are lining up. So I am sticking with my origial forecast for storms I had in April



Bingo! There it is. That's ok my friend. We are looking at Africa right now as the train is starting to roll.
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1252. Grothar
Quoting Minnemike:
ok, that's what i thought, given a Sunday emergence.. Gro.. Tropic gets "1st call" rights this time ;)



He's a good kid. I'll give him this one! (but I did post it this afternoon :P)
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Invest 98L:

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1250. ARiot
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I believe the world is warming, I just believe that it has happened before. Its much harder to prove humans aren't causing it than it is to provide evidence that we are influencing it. Am I saying we as a species have no influence? Of course not, and I believe we should do everything we can to clean up our world. That doesn't mean we are the sole cause of the warming.


If you go read the body of climate work, I don't think you'll find any peer-reviewed paper that claims anthropogenic warming is the sole climate force.

What you will find is empirical evidence of anthropogenic forces on the climate.

This results in many effects that are easy to measure and easy for a layman (like me) to understand.

If you have not read through the body of work, a good place to start is:

Check here

This site links to relevant papers, and the particular page takes each common "argument" against the theory and empirical evidence.

If you are a true skeptic, the site will put your anthropogenic impact questions to rest with a more-than-ample set of evidence.

For now, I enjoy watching for evidence of the "loaded climate dice" effect, and reading peer-reviewed literature on the topic.
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Decent earthquake in the Indonesia area... No tsunami threat:

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 0034Z 25 JUL 2012

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN.

... TSUNAMI INFORMATION BULLETIN ...

THIS MESSAGE IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY.

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0028Z 25 JUL 2012
COORDINATES - 2.5 NORTH 95.8 EAST
LOCATION - OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
MAGNITUDE - 6.6

EVALUATION

A DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT DOES NOT EXIST BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.

HOWEVER - THERE IS A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A LOCAL TSUNAMI
THAT COULD AFFECT COASTS LOCATED USUALLY NO MORE THAN A HUNDRED
KILOMETERS FROM THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES IN THE
REGION NEAR THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE MADE AWARE OF THIS
POSSIBILITY.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
FOR THIS EVENT. IN THE CASE OF CONFLICTING INFORMATION...THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE INFORMATION SHOULD BE USED FOR SAFETY.
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1248. Grothar
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Well close.


Hey, Tropics. I apologize. (I know you don't see that word on here much) There is a cluster over Ethiopia, too! It just didn't show on my first image. Here is one of Eastern Africa. It really does look like they are lining up. So I am sticking with my origial forecast for storms I had in April

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Its getting busy guys, we will see if the models become more consitant, i bet will have an invest soon
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I thought the GFS was developing nothing...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17069
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Gro,do you have the whole Africa image? Is the one behind the big white ball one that GFS had at 00z developing if you look at the timing.
ok, that's what i thought, given a Sunday emergence.. Gro.. Tropic gets "1st call" rights this time ;)
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Quoting Grothar:



Not even. LOL. It's OK Tropics. We all do they same thing.


Gro,do you have the whole Africa image? Is the one behind the big white ball one that GFS had at 00z developing if you look at the timing.
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Quoting Grothar:


I saw it first! :)
i'm still trying to figure out the definition 'it'... have been since the mid 90's!!
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Quoting Grothar:
That other feature over Africa is looking better.




To see those little specs of white in it shows some very high cloud tops.

That storm is looking pretty good. Think we'll get something out of this?
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1240. Grothar
Quoting Minnemike:
indeed.. for clarification ;)
moisture is lifting with these strong waves, the train is pulling into station..


I saw it first! :)
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Well close.
oh, you were talking about that one.. GFS has it emerge Sunday?
perhaps i need view the model myself before commenting :P
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Quoting Grothar:


I think that is Mali.
i wasn't thinking it the one visible on the posted graphics adjacent.. but that looks healthy as you say.. over Mali, which looks to emerge sooner. i'll be watching the succession closely this year, see what i can learn!
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1237. Grothar
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Well close.



Not even. LOL. It's OK Tropics. We all do they same thing.
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Quoting Grothar:


I think that is Mali.


Well close.
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1235. Grothar
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I am watching the next Sunday wave that will emerge as it was the one GFS developed at the 00z run.


Looks like a big one.
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1234. Grothar
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Grothar, the wave that will emerge Africa on Sunday (Now over Ethiopia) is the one to watch down the road IMO as waves in front will moist the air. What do you think?


I think that is Mali.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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