Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

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Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting JLPR2:
Keeping a close eye on this one.




Next invest for sure, It gona have a yellow circle on it soon i guess at next TWO.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I just did a blog too. Still bored though. We need a storm or two.

I agree, a storm to watch and track would treat the bordeom. Tired of watching just blobs:)
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Pretty bad we're fawning over a couple of model runs out of sheer boredom.

Wake me up when Ernesto does form.

*goes to working out*

If you're working out you're not asleep...so it would make no sense to wake you.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No idea. The run ended there.
alright, thanks. Can't wait until 0z
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Deleted
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Pretty bad we're fawning over a couple of model runs out of sheer boredom.

Wake me up when Ernesto does form.

*goes to working out*
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That is 6Z
Quoting BahaHurican:
Did it cross the Bahamas and FL to get there, or come up through the Caribbean?

Quoting BahaHurican:
Did it cross the Bahamas and FL to get there, or come up through the Caribbean?







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Quoting Bluestorm5:
This recurved out to sea right?

No idea. The run ended there.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Yes so!! lol
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That is last nights 00z model run.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
One of the ensemble members from last night's 0Z GFS run:

This recurved out to sea right?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7913
I just did a blog too. Still bored though. We need a storm or two.
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Looks like the "real" Atl hurricane season stage is about to begin....

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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
6Z GFS
Did it cross the Bahamas and FL to get there, or come up through the Caribbean?

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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
0Z GFS








That is last nights 00z model run.
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Title: Navy: Nuclear Sub Worker Set Fire So He Could Leave Early
Source: AP
Author: CLARKE CANFIELD
Date: July 24, 2012

Navy investigators have determined that a civilian laborer set a fire that caused $400 million in damage to a nuclear-powered submarine because he had anxiety and wanted to get out of work early.

Casey James Fury of Portsmouth, N.H., faces up to life in prison if convicted of two counts of arson in the fire aboard the USS Miami attack submarine while it was in dry dock May 23 and a second blaze outside the sub on June 16.

[...]

The Navy originally said the fire started when an industrial vacuum cleaner sucked up a heat source that ignited debris inside.

[...]

Fury told NCIS agent Jeremy Gauthier that he was taking three medications for anxiety, depression and sleep, and a fourth for allergies. He checked himself into an in-patient mental health facility on June 21 and checked himself out two days later, the affidavit reads.

[...]
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1318. JLPR2
Quoting Civicane49:


Nice spin on current pass.


Yes, it's spin is definitely a low now.

Oscat also shows it well.

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Our African Wave
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Funny thing is it actually might be an eye if this last ASCAT is right...
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Quoting JLPR2:
To compare...

Previous pass:


Current pass:


Not bad...


Nice spin on current pass.
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One of the ensemble members from last night's 0Z GFS run:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
0Z GFS






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1311. JLPR2
To compare...

Previous pass:


Current pass:


Not bad...
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Stay safe, press.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
6Z GFS


That gave me a good laugh for a second!!!
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6Z GFS
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We're getting slammed right now....very electrical...boat's rockin' hard...
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ERMAGHERD EYE!!!!

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1304. JLPR2
It seems that after a week or two of whoops, cooling, El Niño is back on track.

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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Can you find Wunderground? Map of the internet:

Internet Map
I LOVE that map... saved a version of it some time back and have a print copy with "you are here" arrow pointing to Wunderground... lol

May need to update now that we're moving.

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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:


NASA Satellites Observe Widespread Melting Event on Greenland

‘Scientists Say They’ve Never Seen Anything Like This Before’


Nearly the entire ice sheet covering Greenland—from its thin coastal edges to its two-mile-thick center—experienced some degree of melting for several days in July 2012. According to measurements from three satellites and an analysis by NASA and university scientists, an estimated 97 percent of the top layer of the ice sheet had thawed at some point in mid-July, the largest extent of surface melting observed in three decades of satellite observations.

img src="http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerec ords/78000/78607/greenland_com_2012194.png" style="ma
Quoting Grothar:
It looks like Greenland may get a tropical entity.

for me,if a tropical storm watch goes up for Greenland,thats the final piece of data i need to believe in GW.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Can you find Wunderground? Map of the internet:

Internet Map
I found it, after i translated it and then search it.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Can you find Wunderground? Map of the internet:

Internet Map

I did!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Wow the blog just died...
Actually it was dead around 8:45... when I stopped to eat dinner... but

YMMV...

LOL
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Quoting Grothar:



He's a good kid. I'll give him this one! (but I did post it this afternoon :P)
I thought he put it up last night... but that was a long time ago... and my memory is nowhere near as good as yours... lol
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Can you find Wunderground? Map of the internet:

Internet Map
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lol
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Wow the blog just died...
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She ready to drag me down the isle at this point I'm sure Grothar. Close to it now, just want it to be the only time I ever get married. I take it real seriously. Kinda like everything else. :)
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1290. LargoFl
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
953 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

SCC015-019-035-250215-
/O.CON.KCHS.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-120725T0215Z/
DORCHESTER SC-CHARLESTON SC-BERKELEY SC-
953 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN BERKELEY...NORTHEASTERN CHARLESTON AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN DORCHESTER COUNTIES...

AT 953 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
SANTEE COASTAL RESERVE TO TIBWIN TO NEW HOPE TO SANGAREE...MOVING
SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
ARCHDALE...AWENDAW...BOONE HALL PLANTATION...BULL ISLAND...CAINHOY...
CAPE ISLAND...CAPE ROMAIN...CAPERS INLET...CHARLES TOWNE LANDING...
CHARLESTON AIRPORT...CHARLESTON NAVAL COMPLEX...COLLEGE PARK...
CROWFIELD PLANTATION...DANIEL ISLAND...DON HOLT BRIDGE...DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON...GARRIS LANDING...GOOSE CREEK...HAMPTON PLANTATION STATE
PARK...HANAHAN...HUGER...I-26/I-526 INTERCHANGE...ISLE OF PALMS...
LADSON...LIGHTHOUSE ISLAND...MAGNOLIA GARDENS...MAYBANK BRIDGE...
MCCLELLANVILLE...MOUNT PLEASANT...MOUNT PLEASANT REGIONAL AIRPORT...
MOUNT PLEASANT TOWNE CENTRE...NAVAL WEAPONS STATION CHARLESTON...
NORTH CHARLESTON...PRICE INLET...SANGAREE...SANTEE COASTAL RESERVE...
SHADOWMOSS...WANDO AND WEST ASHLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. GO
INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER SUCH AS HAIL...DOWNED TREES...LIMBS...AND
POWER LINES...PLEASE CONTACT THE CHARLESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TOLL FREE AT 1-888-383-2024 OR EMAIL YOUR REPORTS TO
CHS.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37104
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


alright....I think Hawaii is at the top middle of the image???
The hell..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16451
1288. LargoFl
Quoting Pocamocca:

Many moons ago, Greenland used to have palm trees. And tropical beaches.

..always wondered why the called the place..greenland
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37104
1287. JLPR2
Keeping a close eye on this one.

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


alright....I think Hawaii is at the top middle of the image???

You see this is what happens when you let computers rule weather.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2309


alright....I think Hawaii is at the top middle of the image???
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.