Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

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Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

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180 HR:
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Lack of sleep, getting sick, tooth extraction so it wasnt a good day. The first thing after my extractin was me coming on here to relax and look at wx, the only good thing today.


I had a terrible toothache when I was a kid. Probably the only other comparable pain I endured was when I hit my left eye on one of these:

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Living the dream now then wxchaser97. Missed a busy, busy day here. Everyone got excited, then unexcited; then left. Fun none the less, lots of good banter today too. 37 minutes until WU as we know it is gone forever, maybe it'll be better; who knows. I for one am optimistic. Wondering how many will come to blog now from TWC. Fresh blood will be good for the blog. And if not, the vets here will have to crack the whip to keep order. Into the unknown we go. Very glad to be on a blog with such a quality cast though. People genuinely care for each other here. Hard, damn hard, to find a blog where that's the case. Thanks Jeff and all you awesome bloggers for a lot of enjoyment. (Yes I'm including those I ardently disagree with too.)
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm sorry :\ and I feel ya. Weather makes me feel so much better!
Today cant be any worse and there is something about the weather that draws me in and calms me down.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
172 HR:
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Another links page

2012 HURRICANE RESOURCES

Link
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Quoting BahaHurican:
IIRC, yesterday's run wasn't showing anything serious until August anyway. But there was definitely something in the water that dissipated, then a bigger something after that which arrived near the Antilles about Aug 8 or 9...

If nothing else, this is a definite muscle flex... I'd be surprised if we don't see a couple of vigorous Twaves with at least some reasonably decent presentation over the next 5 - 7.... and maybe [hopefully!] more. I don't mind if it fizzles before it gets to the Lesser Antilles, so long as it gets named first... lol

BTW, what's happening with our N ATL invest?

98L:

24/2345 UTC 37.1N 53.7W T1.0/1.5 98L
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Quoting wxchaser97:
Lack of sleep, getting sick, tooth extraction so it wasnt a good day. The first thing after my extractin was me coming on here to relax and look at wx, the only good thing today.
I'm sorry :\ and I feel ya. Weather makes me feel so much better!
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Hour 168:

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162 HR: I really don't think GFS is developing anything...

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IIRC, yesterday's run wasn't showing anything serious until August anyway. But there was definitely something in the water that dissipated, then a bigger something after that which arrived near the Antilles about Aug 8 or 9...

If nothing else, this is a definite muscle flex... I'd be surprised if we don't see a couple of vigorous Twaves with at least some reasonably decent presentation over the next 5 - 7.... and maybe [hopefully!] more. I don't mind if it fizzles before it gets to the Lesser Antilles, so long as it gets named first... lol

BTW, what's happening with our N ATL invest?
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156 HR: still nothing major.

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
150 HR: There we go... 1007 mb

And trough along the east coast, but the high nosing in
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Beryl formed from a cold front, not a tropical wave.


I'm not quite done with it yet despite posting it here, but as someone who has done a TCR on Beryl, I'll have to disagree. It appeared to have been the combination of a tropical wave and a trough/front.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Hope all is good with you!
Lack of sleep, getting sick, tooth extraction so it wasnt a good day. The first thing after my extractin was me coming on here to relax and look at wx, the only good thing today.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
150 HR:

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Quoting BahaHurican:
The 2001 Atlantic hurricane season was a fairly active Atlantic hurricane season that produced 17 tropical cyclones, 15 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.

Note a lot of the bad storms avoided the US. and in '96 most of the bad storms took a path north of the Caribbean with 3 making landfall on the east coast. I call these east coast storms "east coast bruisers" because of the large swath of coastline they impact.
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144 HR

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Interesting info....

UNITED STATES CLIMATE NORMALS 1981-2010

Including Hawaii and Puerto Rico

Link
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Its ok, Ive had a rough day yesterday(24th).
Hope all is good with you!
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138 HR: *Banging my head to wall*

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1459. JLPR2
Quoting RussianWinter:
Wait, why was something stuck in Africa?

Anyone got a global model?


That probably were just lower pressures over Africa, not really a low pressure system.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


JUST IN CASE IT WAS MISSED

LOL
Hmmmm... is that a trough I see there???
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Sorry, dude. Didn't know it was your job.
Its ok, Ive had a rough day yesterday(24th).
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
The maps are overwhelming me in number. And they don't show much. I'm easily overwhelmed. :)
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Wait, why was something stuck in Africa?

Anyone got a global model?
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132 HR

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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I believe the world is warming, I just believe that it has happened before. Its much harder to prove humans aren't causing it than it is to provide evidence that we are influencing it. Am I saying we as a species have no influence? Of course not, and I believe we should do everything we can to clean up our world. That doesn't mean we are the sole cause of the warming.


Here's the problem with your belief.

No one has suggested any alternative reason for the observed warming.

Well, things have been suggested such as the Sun increasing output. But each possible alternate reason has been investigated and found to be not the reason.

We're left with either human behavior or some (pretty strong) force which no one can name.

We've got thousands of very smart and very well educated scientists looking at the problem and they can't find another reason. They are looking hard. Find a non-human reason for the warming and you would be very famous and very rich, very fast.

Plus, the things we can measure - increased CO2 from burning fossil fuels, other greenhouse gases, etc. are pretty much sufficient to explain the warming.

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Quoting wxchaser97:
Ive been in and out today and the next run(06z) Ill be sleeping.
Sorry, dude. Didn't know it was your job.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Wow you are right and look at 2001 and 1996 also very similar.
And '96 was a nasty year! Hurricane's Cesar, Fran, and Hortense did substantial damage and accounted for the majority of loss of life.
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The 2001 Atlantic hurricane season was a fairly active Atlantic hurricane season that produced 17 tropical cyclones, 15 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.

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Quoting BahaHurican:
So Aussie wasn't off w/ his comment...


True. Maybe wx97 could post the next run.
Ive been in and out today and the next run(06z) Ill be sleeping.
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126: Africa finally spit it out

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1446. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


JUST IN CASE IT WAS MISSED

LOL
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yep.
So Aussie wasn't off w/ his comment...


Quoting Bluestorm5:
To be fair, the other guy jumped in...

108 HR

True. Maybe wx97 could post the next run.
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1444. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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120 HR:

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114 HR: Still something over Africa?

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Will one of you please stop posting the images? We don't need double of each one.
Ill stop since I came back late with the run already started. Sorry about doing that, been one of thoughs days.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Quoting sunlinepr:


Like it has been posted here... this year's Oceanic NiƱo Index (ONI) values are very similar to 2006

Wow you are right and look at 2001 and 1996 also very similar.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yes I think Haiti took the brunt of the storm and it crossed over Cuba in a weakened state, at one time the prediction was for a Cat. 3 Hurricane just off the west coast of FL. Fay was another storm that was predicted to become a hurricane and enter the Gulf and hit Tampa Bay.
LOL... at least Fay actually did dump some water on FL... IIRC, SE FL schools closed for Ernesto... and then the sun was shining... lol

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To be fair, the other guy jumped in...

108 HR

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Isn't Beryl the one that sucked up the tropical moisture from the WCar before it headed for FL?

Yep.
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102 hours:
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1435. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Will one of you please stop posting the images? We don't need double of each one.


Ha! yes, please! XD
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Beryl formed from a cold front, not a tropical wave.
Isn't Beryl the one that sucked up the tropical moisture from the WCar before it headed for FL?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.