Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

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Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Chicklit:





Hey did you get any rain by you yesterday as it flooded here in Seminole & Orange counties pretty bad yesterday?


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awesome


something to watch...from a distance
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Quoting Tribucanes:
A free market (capitalism) only works when checks and balances remain in place. Then it serves the people. Corporations have been lawyering their way around these checks and balances for a long time now with a learned efficiency. Then a free market serves only certain individuals and corporations. As soon as legislation is passed, corporations have already found loopholes to get around the new legislation; and I mean every time virtually. Communism, capitalism, socialism, etc, etc are all susceptible to the human nature of GREED.


Technically I think it is a problem with externalities: pollution is an unaccounted for cost that is given by all to the product. If every product had to truly account for all of its impact on human society, the cost of oil would be through the roof.

or you can just say greed.
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Quoting greentortuloni:


How can i not use? Unless I want to go live off the land using my own clothes and tools that I make from rocks, I will use oil. If the choice is die or comtribute to the oil economy, it isn't a choice.


you have a choice to live off land like ya said it's your choice....plus how do ya know ya will die living off the land have ya tried it before????
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Great news for TX, shift that ridge north of us compared to last year


That ridge though is forecast to slip south so much of TX will NOT see an rain for the next 2 weeks except maybe coastal TX.


16 Day GFS precip accum and you can clearly see where this ridge is going to set up and that's TX. "Death Ridge"

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, a close recurve would add excitement, give waves to the surfers, and thereby make everybody happy.... lol

Couple points.

1) In Nassau we've gone through storms, up to cat 2 level, where we did not lose power. IMO a lot has to do with simple prep measures like, say, tree trimming in advance of the storm, which reduces interference from that kind of thing.

2) Even the Chinese bloggers are talking about how the Hong Kong government was better prepared than Beijing's... and about how the pple there got the day off when other Chinese pple don't when there's a hurricane...

Unfortuanetly there would still be loss of life with a close recurve, as rip currents would sadly claim a few lives of inexperienced swimmers. Especially tourists excited by the big surf.
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Quoting VR46L:


Not to mention the mercury contained in them if they break .....


don't matter what side of the gw debate you are on both sides look at one thing money.....
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Quoting yoboi:



nobody forces ya to use it....that's your choice to use it..


How can i not use? Unless I want to go live off the land using my own clothes and tools that I make from rocks, I will use oil. If the choice is die or comtribute to the oil economy, it isn't a choice.
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A free market (capitalism) only works when checks and balances remain in place. Then it serves the people. Corporations have been lawyering their way around these checks and balances for a long time now with a learned efficiency. Then a free market serves only certain individuals and corporations. As soon as legislation is passed, corporations have already found loopholes to get around the new legislation; and I mean every time virtually. Communism, capitalism, socialism, etc, etc are all susceptible to the human nature of GREED.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting StormTracker2K:



That's the most impressive wave thus far to exit Africa.



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Quoting yoboi:


yeah and the new lights bulbs they were going to mandate we have, now is found out not to be good for your skin....
A team at Stony Brook University claims that CFLs emit UV light, though the effect can be greatly minimized by not using them in close proximity, and/or shielding them with inside a closed fixture (which most people do anyway). Further, the lead researcher cautions that, overall, CFLs remain better overall than incandescent bulbs.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Jeff makes a great point with Vicente, people go to bed in Tampa/St.Pete expecting a category one and waking up to a category four would be a nightmare with a huge potential body count. I guess though anywhere along the coast taking that equation would be in big trouble. By the time anyone realized what was happening it would be too late to outrun the surge for many. Even with six to ten hours of warning, evacuation would be slow going and not practical. Just wonder what percentage of people on the coast would get the message that the storm rapidly intensified? With that time frame of six to twelve hours of notice I'm sure the authorities would do all they could to contact those on the coast. Hopefully then the majority on the coast could at least get ten to twenty miles inland. NOAA weather radio might be all one has in that situation to avoid death though. Could very well be the only warning one would get, especially if this was a night landfall. I was honestly confused yesterday when Vicente went from 80 to 130 in the blink of an eye. Thought it was a misprint of some sort.

Are you taking about evacuating the coast due to storm surge. Vicente didn't have enough time to build much of a surge due to it's proximity to land.
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Gotta go mow/water the lawn now and then I have to leave around 1:30 for an oral surgeon appointment. The tropics are heating up with this frontal low that wants to develop and recent models runs showing the cv season starting.
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Quoting greentortuloni:


Oil.



nobody forces ya to use it....that's your choice to use it..
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Quoting Chicklit:
"Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa."

Jeff Masters



That's the most impressive wave thus far to exit Africa.

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Quoting yoboi:


yeah and the new lights bulbs they were going to mandate we have, now is found out not to be good for your skin....


Not to mention the mercury contained in them if they break .....
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Big oil is not going away even with a push to renewable energy sources. Competition will not only remain with big oil but, also, with the competing renewable energy sources. No one, and I mean no one, is forcing a single energy source to replace all other energy sources. Name me any single energy source that our government forces you to use. Name me an energy source that has been outlawed by our government. No offense, but you are beginning to sound like the boy that cried, "WOLF!" and there is no wolf around.


Oil.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
St. Louis will have broken 105 eight times this month alone if the forecast for the next two days pans out...and there's still August to go, which the CPC assures us will be just about as toasty as July has been:

hot


Great news for TX, shift that ridge north of us compared to last year
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"Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa."

Jeff Masters
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Quoting ncstorm:




GFS and NOGAPS could be on to something as a vigorous wave come off Africa it has a some Saharan dust to contend with but upper levels wind should tear it up though.
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TS Jose:


Our system right now:
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Quoting dabirds:
Already 91 in StL today. Yesterday's 106 allowed 2012 to surpass 1936's 8 days above 105, forecast of next two days above or at 105 would break 1934's 10 days above all time record. River guage at Ead's Bridge is expected to reach 0 within two weeks, which leaves an 11 foot deep channel. Only water being released from Missouri River resevoirs has kept it above zero so far, though rain is expected in the Upper Mississippi basin. Said last week we were coming for '54s record severe drought coverage and hoped we wouldn't get to '34s. Think we are going to challenge '34, breaking its 105 degree days record this early is not a good sign!
St. Louis will have broken 105 eight times this month alone if the forecast for the next two days pans out...and there's still August to go, which the CPC assures us will be just about as toasty as July has been:

hot

hot
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Quoting dabirds:
Already 91 in StL today. Yesterday's 106 allowed 2012 to surpass 1936's 8 days above 105, forecast of next two days above or at 105 would break 1934's 10 days above all time record. River guage at Ead's Bridge is expected to reach 0 within two weeks, which leaves an 11 foot deep channel. Only water being released from Missouri River resevoirs has kept it above zero so far, though rain is expected in the Upper Mississippi basin. Said last week we were coming for '54s record severe drought coverage and hoped we wouldn't get to '34s. Think we are going to challenge '34, breaking its 105 degree days record this early is not a good sign!


Dust Bowl part 2
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


Great in theory, but probably a bit off. It sounds like there was years of research and study done before that was selected as the best refrigerant to use. In such a case, it was probably much more likely that some form of standard was issued, like "the refrigerant must cause substantially less damage to the ozone layer" and "the refrigerant must be roughly the same safety level as previous refrigerants" and maybe "the refrigerant must have a ____ efficiency." Then, from that set of goals, research was done to figure out what would fit, leading most companies to adopt the new material. I am not sure that these were the regulations exactly used, but I'd imagine from past experience that this is similar to how it went. Somehow the idea of finding the best fit for a set of regulations (very similar to how the free market is supposed to work) turns into "the government says that this is the only refrigerant that can ever be used ever! It's communism!"

Just look at the light bulb debaucle. This has been going on for years with no issue. A certain efficiency standard is announced to be coming, government works with manufacturers to research what kinds of light bulbs can match the new efficiency. The new, efficient bulbs are being produced, and we are on the cusp of a non-trivial reduction in energy usage. Then BAMMO! Faux outrage! "The government is BANNING incandescent bulbs!" Which, again, for those not paying attention, is not exactly a correct description of what happened.


yeah and the new lights bulbs they were going to mandate we have, now is found out not to be good for your skin....
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It'll be one of the Jose like storms.
It would still be a TS, but yeah a storm like Jose but it does look stronger than Jose.
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Nearest hurricane threat for US in farmer's almanac:

AUG 16th-19th. Hurricane threat for the Gulf Coast. Fair elsewhere.
TX/LA

after that its not till september 12th-ish that there is another threat in the US
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Quoting wxchaser97:
I was thinking about that, it does have a chance to develop.
There is a low and convection over the center with gale force winds. It needs to detach from the front and then we got Ernesto.

It'll be one of the Jose like storms.
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Hong Kong








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Quoting washingtonian115:
We aren't paying attention to it.So now it wants to develop...that may become Ernesto???? o_0.
I was thinking about that, it does have a chance to develop.
There is a low and convection over the center with gale force winds. It needs to detach from the front and then we got Ernesto.
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Deleted
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Ah, but that is what free enterprise brings, is it not? Just as when fossil fuels becomes less abundant then the big oil companies will take advantage of this as well. ... Oh, wait ...


IN many cases "Big Oil" is already part or total owners of the "Green" energy companies.

This is why commercial solar or wind farms in and of themselves will NOT liberate individuals, nor families, nor even our own government from centralized corporate energy control.

In order to be free one must own their own solar or wind energy systems off-grid, and sell whatever excess they have back to the grid. As much as possible, try to make the energy company pay you instead of the other way around.


You can install a home made solar water heater or buy one on the internet, and that will pay for itself in 2 or 3 years by saving 1/4 to 1/3rd on your monthly energy bill, and is much cheaper than solar panels.

If you live in the mid to northern half of the temperate zone you can install a solar heater which will cut your heating energy needs in half during the winter, and also pay for itself in 2 or 3 years. YOu can make it your self from materials you can buy at your local hardware store and home improvement store, and this too is far, far cheaper than the energy equivalent of solar panels, because it ends up being about 80% 90% efficient solar energy thermalized and captured. It requires nothing more than basic carpentry skills, and one or two people should be able to make it in a day or two on their spare time.


Building a home made solar air conditioning unit is probably beyond the skill of most any do it your self type, but it is possible. I don't know whether anybody manufactures units of an appropriate scale for residential use, and even if they do they are probably quite expensive. The professional manufactured units are typically commercial or industrial scale. In any case, you should be able to get at least 20% to 30% efficiency out of these units, and that's relative to the total solar constant at the surface, not just one spectrum of light.
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Russian mega fires and the dwindling arctic ice cap. MODIS polar view today.

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Quoting wxchaser97:
2 more views, could see a 20-30% chance if this keeps up(invest).
We aren't paying attention to it.So now it wants to develop...that may become Ernesto???? o_0.
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Already 91 in StL today. Yesterday's 106 allowed 2012 to surpass 1936's 8 days above 105, forecast of next two days above or at 105 would break 1934's 10 days above all time record. River guage at Ead's Bridge is expected to reach 0 within two weeks, which leaves an 11 foot deep channel. Only water being released from Missouri River resevoirs has kept it above zero so far, though rain is expected in the Upper Mississippi basin. Said last week we were coming for '54s record severe drought coverage and hoped we wouldn't get to '34s. Think we are going to challenge '34, breaking its 105 degree days record this early is not a good sign!
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Quoting ncstorm:


Yeah, I see that..but there will be a round two later as well..
The first doesnt look so bad right now. Hope nothing bad happens to anyone in the storms path.
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Quoting Autistic2:


Free enterprise yes, but when govermant steps in and says YOU WILL DO THIS (as in 410a)Then there are no other choices and that opens a door for no loger a FREEMARKET but a govermant mandated market with NO compentation.


Great in theory, but probably a bit off. It sounds like there was years of research and study done before that was selected as the best refrigerant to use. In such a case, it was probably much more likely that some form of standard was issued, like "the refrigerant must cause substantially less damage to the ozone layer" and "the refrigerant must be roughly the same safety level as previous refrigerants" and maybe "the refrigerant must have a ____ efficiency." Then, from that set of goals, research was done to figure out what would fit, leading most companies to adopt the new material. I am not sure that these were the regulations exactly used, but I'd imagine from past experience that this is similar to how it went. Somehow the idea of finding the best fit for a set of regulations (very similar to how the free market is supposed to work) turns into "the government says that this is the only refrigerant that can ever be used ever! It's communism!"

Just look at the light bulb debaucle. This has been going on for years with no issue. A certain efficiency standard is announced to be coming, government works with manufacturers to research what kinds of light bulbs can match the new efficiency. The new, efficient bulbs are being produced, and we are on the cusp of a non-trivial reduction in energy usage. Then BAMMO! Faux outrage! "The government is BANNING incandescent bulbs!" Which, again, for those not paying attention, is not exactly a correct description of what happened.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Its already happening in Indinana and Ohio.


Yeah, I see that..but there will be a round two later as well..
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Quoting ncstorm:
From Allan Huffman

Derecho possible today, heat most of the week

A line of severe thunderstorms is racing through Indiana this morning after hitting Chicago earlier and is leading to widespread wind damage. This may be looked back on as a derecho, or a long-lasting, synoptic forced severe thunderstorm event, where storms maintain themselves for long distances and cause widespread wind damage. This is what hit Washington DC back on June 29th.

This line of storms may hold together as it drops southeast towards the Carolinas later this afternoon and evening. If it does, we could see severe storms and wind damage across the area. In my opinion central/western NC may be most at risk from this derecho, possibly move in sometime after 3pm. So stay tuned. Before the storms arrive, it will be another hot day with lots of upper 90s to near 100 readings
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Severe Weather Potential this afternoon & tonight



Its already happening in Indinana and Ohio.
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Jeff makes a great point with Vicente, people go to bed in Tampa/St.Pete expecting a category one and waking up to a category four would be a nightmare with a huge potential body count. I guess though anywhere along the coast taking that equation would be in big trouble. By the time anyone realized what was happening it would be too late to outrun the surge for many. Even with six to ten hours of warning, evacuation would be slow going and not practical. Just wonder what percentage of people on the coast would get the message that the storm rapidly intensified? With that time frame of six to twelve hours of notice I'm sure the authorities would do all they could to contact those on the coast. Hopefully then the majority on the coast could at least get ten to twenty miles inland. NOAA weather radio might be all one has in that situation to avoid death though. Could very well be the only warning one would get, especially if this was a night landfall. I was honestly confused yesterday when Vicente went from 80 to 130 in the blink of an eye. Thought it was a misprint of some sort.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Thanks Jeff...
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From Allan Huffman

Derecho possible today, heat most of the week

A line of severe thunderstorms is racing through Indiana this morning after hitting Chicago earlier and is leading to widespread wind damage. This may be looked back on as a derecho, or a long-lasting, synoptic forced severe thunderstorm event, where storms maintain themselves for long distances and cause widespread wind damage. This is what hit Washington DC back on June 29th.

This line of storms may hold together as it drops southeast towards the Carolinas later this afternoon and evening. If it does, we could see severe storms and wind damage across the area. In my opinion central/western NC may be most at risk from this derecho, possibly move in sometime after 3pm. So stay tuned. Before the storms arrive, it will be another hot day with lots of upper 90s to near 100 readings
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Is this the last of the old blogs. We will have to share the Doc. in the future. Thanks again Doc. and keep on keeping on.


Yep, thanks Doc!

Few things in my life have brought as much pleasure return for the cost.. only my neighbor's dog comes to mind... so thanks and good luck in the wider world of TWC blogs.
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Quoting TropicalWxBlogger:


I know that I said you people would never hear from me again, but NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO make it go somewhere else xD
Hey, a close recurve would add excitement, give waves to the surfers, and thereby make everybody happy.... lol

Quoting SSideBrac:
I was impressed that throughout the impacts of Vicente, Hong Kong seemed to retain mains power & internet connectivity and suffer little building damage- I was able to access a series of HK Web Cams (Transport Dept & HK Observatory) for the duration of Vicente.
They have proven a high level of resilience (perhaps what one should expect in one of the world's leading financial capitals)that many places could do well to try and emulate.
Main thing to me though is that all my contacts there are fine and well
So now - back to eyes on the Caribbean - although that area East of Phillipines could eventually bring something Hong Kong's way again.
Couple points.

1) In Nassau we've gone through storms, up to cat 2 level, where we did not lose power. IMO a lot has to do with simple prep measures like, say, tree trimming in advance of the storm, which reduces interference from that kind of thing.

2) Even the Chinese bloggers are talking about how the Hong Kong government was better prepared than Beijing's... and about how the pple there got the day off when other Chinese pple don't when there's a hurricane...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Ah, but that is what free enterprise brings, is it not? Just as when fossil fuels becomes less abundant then the big oil companies will take advantage of this as well. ... Oh, wait ...


Free enterprise yes, but when govermant steps in and says YOU WILL DO THIS (as in 410a)Then there are no other choices and that opens a door for no loger a FREEMARKET but a govermant mandated market with NO compentation.
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2 more views, could see a 20-30% chance if this keeps up(invest).
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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