Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

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Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

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and with that I telly sevalis

(I really am out of hair)
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Looks better than Jose.
the problem is that this aoi is only at 10% right now and it only has until tomorrow to develop.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4085
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I only pay attention to the 0Z and 12Z GFS, so we'll have to see what the next run shows. The 06Z and 18Z GFS have been known to change drastically compared to 0Z and 12Z.


I've asked several registered mets about that and they said it was more su
think it was a fluke, and SAL is still not going to be too nice.

Anyway its almost 11:30 so we will soon find out if it comes back.
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Quoting CJ5:


Perhaps, but you cannot look at only one side of the equation and this is what gripes me about the rabid GW sides. Let's be sure and add back to that calculation the positives oil has had on the globe and the impact on people's lives.

Demonize big oil all you want but there isn't a person or community on the planet this isn't better off because of the discovery and use of oil.


Wait. I'm not demonizing big oil any more than I would deomnize Big 'Baccy in the 40s.

I have had my share of 38 cylinder ocean liners in my driveway.

My point was that the it is impossible to kick the oil habit because it is so engrained in our culture. That is why, given the problems with pollution, the government should step in.

If big oil was to say "Whoa, 'scuse us, we didn't know what would happen. We doubted it for a long time but we believe and because we care about the future of mankind as well as our kids we are now doing everything in our power to convert as fast as possibly to an oil free economy."

If BO was to say that, i would be their biggest fan. But given the evidence that is in, they are just lying.

I don't know to what end since anyone who can sink a shaft through the north sea or tunnel from miles away to hit a small target has the capability to read graphs and understand predictions. The only thing I can think of is macho culture + enourmous profit + get fired = lie.

I'm not ignoring the pressures these guys are under to conform. Seriosuly, I'm not. It's just that at some point the oil pollution has to stop.
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Deleted
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Yo K-man.


Waiting and watching :-)
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Dont think this is going to develop, NHC is losing confidence.
. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
MPH.

Who?.Oh yeah-yeah that..oh yeah..forgot about it..

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Dont think this is going to develop, NHC is losing confidence.
. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
MPH.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
Quoting allancalderini:
anyone think the aoi near Bermuda will be name before it enter cool water tomorrow?


Looks better than Jose.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


I'm watching it all day, so yeah lol!
I hope we don't lose power.Yeah it won't be that hot tomorrow..But Thursday will :(.And the last time it cam through people didn't have power for over two weeks.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 0Z GFS develops the wave off Africa into a tropical storm this week, but the one that becomes a hurricane north of the Greater Antilles is the wave currently over Central Africa.


This could be a worry for the SE US as the models are showing a weak trough by the time this wave heads toward the Bahamas. So people from FL to NC may need to watch this closely as we head into next week.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
20%-30% at 2PM?



Needs a circle. May become our first Cape Verde storm over the coming days.

anyone think the aoi near Bermuda will be name before it enter cool water tomorrow?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4085
122. yoboi
Quoting yoboi:


do some research with what ya can eat, and how to find fresh water...your life expectency will probably drop....one thing most people don't talk about, fossil fuels has increased your life expectency..



any thought's neop???
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Do you have to show that doom and gloom pic?.Lol.


I'm watching it all day, so yeah lol!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


idk about that, seems to be the wave after this one, or possibly one on the heels of that, but the newest GFS dropped significant development, so idk what exactly will happen.


The models will do that until they get a better grasp on the situation as these wave continue to exit Africa. This wave here near the African coast could be a TD over the next 48 hours if it continues to maintain it's structure.

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The 0Z GFS develops the wave off Africa into a tropical storm this week, but the one that becomes a hurricane north of the Greater Antilles is the wave currently over Central Africa.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


idk about that, seems to be the wave after this one, or possibly one on the heels of that, but the newest GFS dropped significant development, so idk what exactly will happen.

I only pay attention to the 0Z and 12Z GFS, so we'll have to see what the next run shows. The 06Z and 18Z GFS have been known to change drastically compared to 0Z and 12Z.
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117. yoboi
Quoting greentortuloni:


So help me out. How can I live oil free?


do some research with what ya can eat, and how to find fresh water...your life expectency will probably drop....one thing most people don't talk about, fossil fuels has increased your life expectency..
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anyway... I toddle back off to other forums about global warming rather than stinking up this one.. caio tutti
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Do you have to show that doom and gloom pic?.Lol.
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114. CJ5
Quoting greentortuloni:


Technically I think it is a problem with externalities: pollution is an unaccounted for cost that is given by all to the product. If every product had to truly account for all of its impact on human society, the cost of oil would be through the roof.

or you can just say greed.


Perhaps, but you cannot look at only one side of the equation and this is what gripes me about the rabid GW sides. Let's be sure and add back to that calculation the positives oil has had on the globe and the impact on people's lives.

Demonize big oil all you want but there isn't a person or community on the planet this isn't better off because of the discovery and use of oil.
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Quoting yoboi:


it's all part of the cycle...some yrs are good some yrs are bad....


I have your source for that quote ".some yrs are good some yrs are bad."
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Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
Quoting yoboi:


i was always taught if ya really put ya mind to something ya can do it....


So help me out. How can I live oil free?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
20%-30% at 2PM?



Needs a circle. May become our first Cape Verde storm over the coming days.



idk about that, seems to be the wave after this one, or possibly one on the heels of that, but the newest GFS dropped significant development, so idk what exactly will happen.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
20%-30% at 2PM?



Needs a circle. May become our first Cape Verde storm over the coming days.

Looks as if it's almost detached from the front.Funny the GFS dropped this scenario with it's most recent runs when it was originally forecasting this to happen.I think the NHC is looking for persistence on our African wave.
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108. yoboi
Quoting dabirds:
While I understand to a certain extent, moving it into the nation's breadbasket is not a good thing for anybody. Throw in the great loss of fruit from up north with that freeze and everybody's food bills are going to increase. Don't know that the irrigated fields can make up for this.


it's all part of the cycle...some yrs are good some yrs are bad....
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Have a great morning all.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
20%-30% at 2PM?



Needs a circle. May become our first Cape Verde storm over the coming days.

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From Brad Panovich:

Signs of severe weather, 300mb jet streak & mountain wave clouds all point to good wind energy today.:


HRRR model has 2 distinct areas of storms today which is supported by the NAM 4 as well. The first is more scattered stuff forming on the lee trough. The second is an MCS which really could be strong and arrive after dark and last well into the night. :


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Yo K-man.
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1061 rocketboy108: Does anyone know the lowest pressure attained by the Typhoon Vicente? I followed it only casually, then was stunned to see it had blown up suddenly to a Cat 4 at landfall.
Since I was not following it closely -- and the Weather-Underground map shows it jumping from Cat 1 directly to Cat 4 -- I was naturally curious to know what the rate of intensification was.
Did it set a record or anything? How fast did it explode from 1 to 4?


On 23July2012, according to the NationalOceanographic&AtmosphericAdministration:
14:01 UTC (2:01pmGMT) - 976.9(millibars) - 65.0knots(~75mph)120.4k/h
14:32 UTC (2:32pmGMT) - 962.1millibars - 82.2knots
15:01 UTC (3:01pmGMT) - 957.2millibars - 87.4knots
15:32 UTC (3:32pmGMT) - 954.8millibars - 90.0knots
16:01 UTC (4:01pmGMT) - 947.0millibars - 97.2knots
16:32 UTC (4:32pmGMT) - 941.8millibars - 102.0knots
17:01 UTC (5:01pmGMT) - 933.4millibars - 109.8knots(126.4mph)203.3k/h
17:14 UTC (5:14pmGMT) - 933.4millibars - 109.8knots
17:32 UTC (5:32pmGMT) - 933.4millibars - 109.8knots
18:32 UTC (6:32pmGMT) - 933.3millibars - 109.8knots
19:01 UTC (7:01pmGMT) - 933.3millibars - 109.8(knots)
19:32 UTC (7:32pmGMT , ~8minutes before landfall)
MinimumPressure of 933.3millibars with MaximumSustainedWinds of 109.8knots
For those still interested...
CAN is Guangzhou*BaiyunInternationalAirport :: MFM is MacauInternationalAirport
HKG is HongKongInternationalAirport :: SZK is ShenzhenBao'anInternationalAirport

TyphoonVicente made landfall on what appears to be either a military facility or a chemical-processing plant at 21.917n112.987e between Yaogu and Huangzhukeng in Guangdong, China
~39miles(62kilometres) WestSouthWest of Macau(Macao) and
~58miles(94kilometres) WestSouthWest of HongKong
~69miles(111kilometres) SouthWest of Shenzhen
3metre(10foot)flood map
* Guangzhou was formerly known as Canton
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Glad I was in the living room when it happened. More glad I had a duel purpose fire extinguisher in the next room. We've had the burnout after three months with at least 10 of them, so we switched back. Was an old lamp though, so I'm not ruling out the lamp as the main cause. Still was discomforting. Had used the old bulbs in it for years and years with no issues.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting RitaEvac:


Great news for TX, shift that ridge north of us compared to last year
While I understand to a certain extent, moving it into the nation's breadbasket is not a good thing for anybody. Throw in the great loss of fruit from up north with that freeze and everybody's food bills are going to increase. Don't know that the irrigated fields can make up for this.
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The ground is so saturated by me now that water comes up from under your feet when walking in my yard. 23" of rain at my place since June 1st. In Lake Mary just to my north 6.45" fell yesterday.



Some areas west of me have seen 35" of rain since June 1st. Crazy as Mother Nature has unleashed torrents of rain on interior and western FL the last 2 months.

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Good morning

ASCAT got a good look at that new wave which has a well defined surface low near 11.5 N

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53. RTSplayer 2:35 PM GMT on July 24, 2012 +2
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Ah, but that is what free enterprise brings, is it not? Just as when fossil fuels becomes less abundant then the big oil companies will take advantage of this as well. ... Oh, wait ...


IN many cases "Big Oil" is already part or total owners of the "Green" energy companies.

This is why commercial solar or wind farms in and of themselves will NOT liberate individuals, nor families, nor even our own government from centralized corporate energy control.

In order to be free one must own their own solar or wind energy systems off-grid, and sell whatever excess they have back to the grid. As much as possible, try to make the energy company pay you instead of the other way around.


You can install a home made solar water heater or buy one on the internet, and that will pay for itself in 2 or 3 years by saving 1/4 to 1/3rd on your monthly energy bill, and is much cheaper than solar panels.

If you live in the mid to northern half of the temperate zone you can install a solar heater which will cut your heating energy needs in half during the winter, and also pay for itself in 2 or 3 years. YOu can make it your self from materials you can buy at your local hardware store and home improvement store, and this too is far, far cheaper than the energy equivalent of solar panels, because it ends up being about 80% 90% efficient solar energy thermalized and captured. It requires nothing more than basic carpentry skills, and one or two people should be able to make it in a day or two on their spare time.


Building a home made solar air conditioning unit is probably beyond the skill of most any do it your self type, but it is possible. I don't know whether anybody manufactures units of an appropriate scale for residential use, and even if they do they are probably quite expensive. The professional manufactured units are typically commercial or industrial scale. In any case, you should be able to get at least 20% to 30% efficiency out of these units, and that's relative to the total solar constant at the surface, not just one spectrum of light.
------------------------------------------------- -----
Yes but you will still end up paying the company sooner or later here in florida the electris company owns the water and trash and gas so they still get your money one way or anouther
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Quoting Chicklit:
awesome


something to watch...from a distance
A anti-cyclone is trying to set up over the system which should help it a little in defending it.
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Quoting Chicklit:
awesome


something to watch...from a distance


Wow nice vorticity showing up already
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Quoting greentortuloni:



Yes, and I died. Sigh.

People have actually done it. But theoretically possible for a short period is not hte same as viable.


i was always taught if ya really put ya mind to something ya can do it....
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This CME blasted away from the far side of the Sun yesterday... It was probably sparked by one of the most powerful solar flares in a long time, due to the extreme speed it left the Sun with... The source was sunspot 1520 which provided all the activity over the past 2 weeks... If it were to have been directed at Earth, which it is not, it would have brought severe impacts:

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Quoting Tribucanes:
Been using the new light bulbs for awhile now. Hate em, they don't last like they say they do. Majority I've used burn out in under three months. One started my lamp on fire. Now have a huge stock of the old ones.


I agree with that. I use but they piss me off. Some of them have lasted over 12 years. But not all and every time I change one I think I should be able to take it back and exchange it.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:



Hey did you get any rain by you yesterday as it flooded here in Seminole & Orange counties pretty bad yesterday?




Just a sprinkle 2K -- the vicious cells were west and just a teeny north of here.
But the winds came up, the sky got dark.
We caught the last fringe about 6 p.m. that's all.
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"Geoengineering projects around the world - map

ETC Group has produced a world map of geoengineering that represents the first attempt to document the expanding scope of research and experimentation in the large-scale manipulation of Earth or climate systems
"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/graphic/201 2/jul/17/geoengineering-world-map

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
Quoting Tribucanes:
Been using the new light bulbs for awhile now. Hate em, they don't last like they say they do. Majority I've used burn out in under three months. One started my lamp on fire. Now have a huge stock of the old ones.



wow they start fires??
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Been using the new light bulbs for awhile now. Hate em, they don't last like they say they do. Majority I've used burn out in under three months. One started my lamp on fire. Now have a huge stock of the old ones.

The old bulbs are no longer available here in Australia. I can concur with the new ones only lasting max 3months, but never had 1 set fire a lamp, most go poof when they are turned on.
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Quoting yoboi:


you have a choice to live off land like ya said it's your choice....plus how do ya know ya will die living off the land have ya tried it before????



Yes, and I died. Sigh.

People have actually done it. But theoretically possible for a short period is not hte same as viable.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
A team at Stony Brook University claims that CFLs emit UV light, though the effect can be greatly minimized by not using them in close proximity, and/or shielding them with inside a closed fixture (which most people do anyway). Further, the lead researcher cautions that, overall, CFLs remain better overall than incandescent bulbs.


thanks.....what are the impacts with LED lights???
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Quoting yoboi:


don't matter what side of the gw debate you are on both sides look at one thing money.....


Not really. I am looking at living and quality of life. The attempt to monetize that fails because the cost is so high that I think money becomes an irrelevance.
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Been using the new light bulbs for awhile now. Hate em, they don't last like they say they do. Majority I've used burn out in under three months. One started my lamp on fire. Now have a huge stock of the old ones.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting Chicklit:





Hey did you get any rain by you yesterday as it flooded here in Seminole & Orange counties pretty bad yesterday?


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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.