Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

Share this Blog
40
+

Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 184 - 134

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33Blog Index

Derecho just north of Cincinnati from Henry Margusity on Twitter:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No Good News For The U.S. Economy

Expect single-family housing prices to fall another 20% due to excess inventories. Homeownership rates will slide from foreclosures. Many people suffering from chronic unemployment and the inability to meet mortgage standards will simply give up on the idea of owning a home. So expect more underwater mortgages, more defaults and even less consumer spending.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Yay...

"IN SHORT...ALL ELEMENTS APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT."


Brad Panovich says it will be a busy day, dont know exactly how Significant.
Hope you keep power
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



go buy a nissan leaf or a chevy volt, and hope you get a battery without an extra particle in it.

Even if you buy a car that just runs on battery power, where does the power come from to recharge them. Is it coal or Natural Gas or Nuclear?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:
There is a 1010mb low with the wave off Africa.
Wave looks Brudiful(Beautiful).Now everyone let's do the w-a-v-e.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
America’s potential oil and gas growth is so great, predicts professor Amy Myers Jaffe of Rice University’s Baker Institute, that by the 2020s the capital of energy will likely have shifted back to the Western Hemisphere, where it was prior to the ascendancy of Middle Eastern mega-suppliers such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in the 1960s.


Therefore making America the undisputed greatest country in the world again. (It still is IMO but some "experts" disagree...)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
America’s potential oil and gas growth is so great, predicts professor Amy Myers Jaffe of Rice University’s Baker Institute, that by the 2020s the capital of energy will likely have shifted back to the Western Hemisphere, where it was prior to the ascendancy of Middle Eastern mega-suppliers such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in the 1960s.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yay...

"IN SHORT...ALL ELEMENTS APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There is a 1010mb low with the wave off Africa.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting RitaEvac:
Why The World Is Coming For America's Oil

Norway%u2019s national oil company is betting $20 billion that the future of the energy business lies under the U.S. They%u2019re not alone.
..we here in the US must remember One thing..as they pump the oil out of the ground, a void is created underground, and the earth on top sinks...if they keep on pumping the oil..sinkholes Everyone will know about, not just florida..Patrap might be able to say what has happened over in his area...............Here in the U.S., land subsidence induced by the large volume extraction of underground resources including oil and gas %u201Cis more common than most people realize,%u201D according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a government agency which collects, monitors, analyzes and provides scientific understanding about natural resource conditions, issues and problems. Flat coastal plains and wetlands near sea level are most at risk from this potential side effect.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why won't it be?


Main reason is its nothing but a SAL clearer.
Models arent too enthusiastic anymore, every couple of runs might sneak in a few close isobars on one model or so, but overall, i dont see it becoming much.

Heck, its already trying to go poof.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
173. wxmod
UK parliment 2005 report "THE REGULATION OF GEOENGINEERING"

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910 /cmselect/cmsctech/221/221.pdf

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1771
Quoting GTcooliebai:
nice avatar washingtonian115 and StormTracker2K I was in the area yesterday.
Did you like it?.The humidity yesterday was what we get here in D.C during the summer :).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not beautiful, but does remind me of the system that became TS Franklin last year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not just us either - India still waiting for the monsoon season to start - most areas 20 - 30% below normal, resevoirs at 60% - crops planted in anticipation of the normal early June start are suffering and in danger of failure if season doesn't begin soon.

Don't dispute some are good, some are bad, but usually the bad is not so widespread, that's the real problem with this drought.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Why The World Is Coming For America's Oil

Norway’s national oil company is betting $20 billion that the future of the energy business lies under the U.S. They’re not alone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tribucanes:
Been using the new light bulbs for awhile now. Hate em, they don't last like they say they do. Majority I've used burn out in under three months. One started my lamp on fire. Now have a huge stock of the old ones.


Weird. You must have gotten a bad batch somehow. I moved into my house in May of 2008 (I know, terrible timing, don't remind me) and haven't had to replace a single lightbulb except for the old round ones for the bathroom lights and the skinny old-fashioned chandelier bulbs.

The new CFL lightbulbs I put in are all going strong 4+ years later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


that front wave certainly wont be a TS
It could, still looking good right now even after jumping into the Atlantic ocean. Shear is decreasing, warters are warm, air is moist, some model support. As long as this gets to TD strength it shouldn't have a problem hitting weak TS strength.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972


Tropical Atlantic OPC Frontal Analysis
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning all! Looks like the 00z GFS was developing a CV Hurricane, but the 06z has dropped it. Seems the 00z and the 12z are the more consistent ones to look at.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:


Car manufacturers come out with a car that doesn't need gas, and can still have power as a gas one, I'll buy it and never go to the gas pump again. But the manufactures are in cahoots too



go buy a nissan leaf or a chevy volt, and hope you get a battery without an extra particle in it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
That's funny because we only have 30% chance of rain today.
..yeah looking at these clouds rolling in..its going to get much higher than that this afternoon huh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
...............................................ge tting real close now, so This is where those moisture laden clouds are coming from..going to be a noisey afternoon when this hits the coastline, hope no waterspouts etc
That's funny because we only have 30% chance of rain today.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


that front wave certainly wont be a TS

Why won't it be?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
funny thing is..there are warnings for east florida and also miami, but..nothing for tampa and the gulf coast and WE..are going to get this storm line coming in..wake UP NWS lol...................THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SETTLING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA
WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE ONSET TO OCCUR ALONG THE TREASURE COAST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS...COMBINED WITH SOME DRYING
IN THE MID LEVELS...WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS TO FORM.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE
THE MAIN HAZARDS...ESPECIALLY FROM OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THERE WILL BE A LOW TO MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES.
CHECK HAZARDS WITH LIFEGUARDS BEFORE ENTERING THE SURF.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS...
ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST AND ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AROUND
15 MPH.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Daily tropical analysis.

I agree. Good analysis.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Thanks man, I always try to make things simple and easy to read/use!



I'm going to try to, yes. I've been meaning to write blogs but I've been too lazy and/or busy with my friends/girlfriend.
The map does look good and readable. I hope you can continue making it because I look forward to reading it.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 0Z GFS develops the wave off Africa into a tropical storm this week, but the one that becomes a hurricane north of the Greater Antilles is the wave currently over Central Africa.


that front wave certainly wont be a TS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


That will really flare up once it comes across the coast and merges with the West Coast seabreeze front.
..gee we are going to get hit bad again
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
...............................................ge tting real close now, so This is where those moisture laden clouds are coming from..going to be a noisey afternoon when this hits the coastline, hope no waterspouts etc


That will really flare up once it comes across the coast and merges with the West Coast seabreeze front.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I do not know of any way to live oil free, but my premise is that our government does not force you to use oil. The reality of the situation forces us to still use oil. Until a substitute for every use of oil has been found then we will still be using oil to some extent. ... At least until it becomes too expensive to use.


Car manufacturers come out with a car that doesn't need gas, and can still have power as a gas one, I'll buy it and never go to the gas pump again. But the manufactures are in cahoots too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...............................................ge tting real close now, so This is where those moisture laden clouds are coming from..going to be a noisey afternoon when this hits the coastline, hope no waterspouts etc
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


This looks better than the NHC graphs and the TWC tropical outlook.



Thanks man, I always try to make things simple and easy to read/use!

Quoting wxchaser97:
Theres the map, are you going to do that the rest of the season?


I'm going to try to, yes. I've been meaning to write blogs but I've been too lazy and/or busy with my friends/girlfriend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
gee tons of moisture laden clouds rolling in from the gulf headed inland, skies look dark looking towards tampa, someone is going to get ALOT of rain later on..heads up stormtracker


I just may float home from work.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
I hope we don't lose power.Yeah it won't be that hot tomorrow..But Thursday will :(.And the last time it cam through people didn't have power for over two weeks.
nice avatar washingtonian115 and StormTracker2K I was in the area yesterday.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Scientists use atomic clocks to show that time moves faster at altitude, even on Earth

For every foot above ground, for instance, the clocks showed that someone would age about 90 billionths of a second faster over a 79-year lifetime

Im moving to the Dead Sea
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting greentortuloni:


Wait. I'm not demonizing big oil any more than I would deomnize Big 'Baccy in the 40s.

I have had my share of 38 cylinder ocean liners in my driveway.

My point was that the it is impossible to kick the oil habit because it is so engrained in our culture. That is why, given the problems with pollution, the government should step in.

If big oil was to say "Whoa, 'scuse us, we didn't know what would happen. We doubted it for a long time but we believe and because we care about the future of mankind as well as our kids we are now doing everything in our power to convert as fast as possibly to an oil free economy."

If BO was to say that, i would be their biggest fan. But given the evidence that is in, they are just lying.

I don't know to what end since anyone who can sink a shaft through the north sea or tunnel from miles away to hit a small target has the capability to read graphs and understand predictions. The only thing I can think of is macho culture + enourmous profit + get fired = lie.

I'm not ignoring the pressures these guys are under to conform. Seriosuly, I'm not. It's just that at some point the oil pollution has to stop.


Check out Forbes magazine or online, it's ramping up and foreign countries are now coming to our shores knowing it's right under us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
143. flsky
Quoting Chicklit:


Just a sprinkle 2K -- the vicious cells were west and just a teeny north of here.
But the winds came up, the sky got dark.
We caught the last fringe about 6 p.m. that's all.

Same here in Ponce Inlet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Daily tropical analysis.
Theres the map, are you going to do that the rest of the season, I really think it looks cool?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Daily tropical analysis.


This looks better than the NHC graphs and the TWC tropical outlook.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Deleted
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Daily tropical analysis.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Who?.Oh yeah-yeah that..oh yeah..forgot about it..

Now that we got a northern low that wants to be Ernesto and a couple good looking tropical waves the focus is coming back to the Atlantic.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
gee tons of moisture laden clouds rolling in from the gulf headed inland, skies look dark looking towards tampa, someone is going to get ALOT of rain later on..heads up stormtracker
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
and with that I telly sevalis

(I really am out of hair)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 184 - 134

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
26 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron