Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

Share this Blog
40
+

Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1534 - 1484

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33Blog Index

Quoting wxchaser97:
Good night Civicane. Wunder if 98L can make convection continue to increase.
Hope it can I really want that thing to be designate as Ernesto. I know it chances will be down at the next two but maybe they will be increase later.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3703
1533. Patrap
Fresca anyone?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1532. pcola57
Quoting Tribucanes:
Living the dream now then wxchaser97. Missed a busy, busy day here. Everyone got excited, then unexcited; then left. Fun none the less, lots of good banter today too. 37 minutes until WU as we know it is gone forever, maybe it'll be better; who knows. I for one am optimistic. Wondering how many will come to blog now from TWC. Fresh blood will be good for the blog. And if not, the vets here will have to crack the whip to keep order. Into the unknown we go. Very glad to be on a blog with such a quality cast though. People genuinely care for each other here. Hard, damn hard, to find a blog where that's the case. Thanks Jeff and all you awesome bloggers for a lot of enjoyment. (Yes I'm including those I ardently disagree with too.)


We have but a few short minutes to go and I for one want to say I appreciate your comment and hope that you continue your blogging with WU..
I have always been an anti-establishment guy..
So my hope is that the free voice that was WU continues to be so and if TWC gets kicked in the teeth sometimes,well thats just the way it is in my book..
They have their weakness too..
Hope they can take it...
'cause I'm not planning to change my blogging because of them..
Free thinking doesn't need boundries and I hope none are applied..
Dr. Masters has been generous with so many varied tops for the thinking people here..
I could rant on but gotta see what may come of all of this..
Let the transition begin..
I'll try to stay positive.. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Civicane49:
I'm out for the night.

Good night all.
Good night Civicane. Wunder if 98L can make convection continue to increase.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
1530. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The contrast between yesterday's 00Z GFS and today's..... is killing me. I'm done.. see you next year :) lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm out for the night.

Good night all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
2001 was the first season I followed using a computer. My best memory of that season was watching Michelle get shredded as she crossed Cuba. By the time she passed south of us [well over us, really, since the eye was so huge] her eye was around 60 m in diameter. That was a freaky storm; prior to the arrival of the eye, we had torrential downpours, and our street was a river. After the eye passed, we got almost no more rain, but the wind was so strong that it basically blew the water off the street. By the type the wind had subsided, the street, which had been under 8-10 inches of water during the eye passage, was basically dry. I only can say things would have been much worse here if Michelle hadn't been moving so fast and simultaneously beginning a transition to extratropical. [Also Thank God for Cuba...]

I wonder where I put the photos I took...
kind of the same with me, Gabrielle was a strong tropical storm borderline hurricane when it made landfall in Sarasota FL. and packed quite a punch, i was spending the night over at my cousins house and when I woke up in the morning the water in her pool was splashing out and the trees were really swaying, not to say I haven't been interested in the weather, since I have been passionate about the weather since I was a little boy and used to go outside when we had thunderstorms with frequent lightning or I would watch from my window. Before tracking the storms on the computer I would watch TWC and get updates from John Hope, Paul Goodloe, Dave Scwartz, Steve Lyons, Jeanetta Jones, Kristina Abernathy, Vivian Brown, Bob Stokes, Jeff Marrow, Mike Seidel just to name a few.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting allancalderini:
is 98L refiring convection or I am imagine it?

Just a little, will be interesting to see things in the morning.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Possibility of the second tropical like storm ever forming over the Great Lakes? Hurricane Huron #2 would have this blog on fire.
I wouldnt have to leave home to see a hurricane. That would be a sight to see and in the future it could happen.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
Looks to be trying to re-fire.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:


Nah... only joking... I got the link
Haha, ok. I just don't want to do anything wrong :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
is 98L refiring convection or I am imagine it?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3703
Quoting wxchaser97:
Seems like convection may be increasing alittle now
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/98L/imag ery/rb0.jpg
Click for loop


Only a little bit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Your a real trooper Baha!
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
1518. JLPR2
Quoting Tribucanes:
JLPR2 not missing much. Just WU officially becomes a part of TWC tomorrow. Blog here will remain the same I believe. When they cross-link the two we will be getting an expected onslaught of TWC crowd here. Should be fun and will shake things up. WU will remain unchanged for now. Just better toys for the WU experts to access.


Ha! I see.
A few days ago I deleted almost a hundred of my photos, I don't like the idea of TWC having rights over them. And from now on I will probably be a very infrequent Wu-photo uploader. :\
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Civicane49:


If it doesn't increase its convection by tomorrow morning, it'll likely won't get named.
Seems like convection may be increasing alittle now.
Click for loop
>
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
Possibility of the second tropical like storm ever forming over the Great Lakes? Hurricane Huron #2 would have this blog on fire.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
I just realized it's almost 1 a.m. my time... and I haven't gotten into bed yet.... at least I don't have to leave for work before 9 tomorrow... so I can get up at 5 a.m. and see what's going on... then get back into bed until 7:30... lol.

Anyway, I'm out more or less for the night. Enjoy the rest...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Storms refiring?

Anyhoo, doubt it'll get named anymore... it needed to keep the convection tonight.


If it doesn't increase its convection by morning, it'll likely won't get named.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
JLPR2 not missing much. Just WU officially becomes a part of TWC tomorrow. Blog here will remain the same I believe. When they cross-link the two we will be getting an expected onslaught of TWC crowd here. Should be fun and will shake things up. WU will remain unchanged for now. Just better toys for the WU experts to access.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting Tribucanes:
What a sick high projected. Hope, really hope that's not how it pans out. Can you say heatwave returns to fry more crops over the majority of the US? (not that it ever really left) Not to mention if any of those waves form off of Africa, then with that high in place, we'd be looking at a Southern track which could easily mean US landfall. Heatwave possibly to intensify in the next 10-20 days then?
The whole US hopes not another heatwave but at the end of the run a trough over the great lakes with a 1007mb low.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
Looks like first wave being afected by SAL... 2nd one isn't...

Wait a minute... is she?



Water Vapor
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Civicane49:
98L:

Storms refiring?

Anyhoo, doubt it'll get named anymore... it needed to keep the convection tonight.

Quoting Bluestorm5:
172 HR:
This looks more like what we saw... wonder if this one fizzles or keeps going...

Quoting Bluestorm5:
252 HR: sorry for spamming the blog

All us lazy bloggers out here appreciate your hard work...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1508. txjac
Quoting Tribucanes:
What a sick high projected. Hope, really hope that's not how it pans out. Can you say heatwave returns to fry more crops over the majority of the US? (not that it ever really left) Not to mention if any of those waves form off of Africa, then with that high in place, we'd be looking at a Southern track which could easily mean US landfall. Heatwave possibly to intensify in the next 10-20 days then?


Let's hope not ...no more heat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What a sick high projected. Hope, really hope that's not how it pans out. Can you say heatwave returns to fry more crops over the majority of the US? (not that it ever really left) Not to mention if any of those waves form off of Africa, then with that high in place, we'd be looking at a Southern track which could easily mean US landfall. Heatwave possibly to intensify in the next 10-20 days then?
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Really nothing to note for rest of the run...
Just a high pressure that controls the Atlantic. This is not like yesterday with a hurricane headed for the US.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
Quoting Bluestorm5:


Being serious or sarcasm?


Nah... only joking... I got the link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Really nothing to note for rest of the run...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1503. JLPR2
Quoting Tribucanes:
Wonder if the influx of new bloggers will be an extreme number or just a few. TWC caters to the more casual weather fan, so I wouldn't be surprised if the new cast isn't an overwhelming number.


I know I am missing something here...

What's supposed to happen? :\
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Note a lot of the bad storms avoided the US. and in '96 most of the bad storms took a path north of the Caribbean with 3 making landfall on the east coast. I call these east coast storms "east coast bruisers" because of the large swath of coastline they impact.
2001 was the first season I followed using a computer. My best memory of that season was watching Michelle get shredded as she crossed Cuba. By the time she passed south of us [well over us, really, since the eye was so huge] her eye was around 60 m in diameter. That was a freaky storm; prior to the arrival of the eye, we had torrential downpours, and our street was a river. After the eye passed, we got almost no more rain, but the wind was so strong that it basically blew the water off the street. By the time the wind had subsided, the street, which had been under 8-10 inches of water during the eye passage, was basically dry. I only can say things would have been much worse here if Michelle hadn't been moving so fast and simultaneously beginning a transition to extratropical. [Also Thank God for Cuba...]

I wonder where I put the photos I took...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1501. wxmod
Satellites reveal sudden Greenland ice melt

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18978483http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18978483
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:


Man... I lost the sequence....

Would you start posting again from the begining?


Being serious or sarcasm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1498. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


Man... I lost the sequence....

Would you start posting again from the begining?



I just had to. XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wonder if the influx of new bloggers will be an extreme number or just a few. TWC caters to the more casual weather fan, so I wouldn't be surprised if the new cast isn't an overwhelming number.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
276 HR:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
150 HR:



Man... I lost the sequence....

Would you start posting again from the begining?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Doesnt look like much happens with this run except for the strong high.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
252 HR: sorry for spamming the blog

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So when is the run over?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tribucanes:
1479 comment Kori; I'm afraid to ask what the heck that is? :)


It's called a 'tire horse swing'. I saw it on QVC one day, so my aunt ordered it. The idea was to mount it to a tree and pretend you are riding a horse. The rubber on that thing was extremely thick. When I was coming down, my left eye connected with the left ear. I had to go the hospital and wear an eyepatch for a month. The doctor said my eye was literally scratched. Hurt to even open it. Even now, the optometrist I went to said that it's weaker relative to the other eye. I can't see out of it very well if I close my right eye.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
228 HR:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
204 HR:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
98L:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tribucanes:
Living the dream now then wxchaser97. Missed a busy, busy day here. Everyone got excited, then unexcited; then left. Fun none the less, lots of good banter today too. 37 minutes until WU as we know it is gone forever, maybe it'll be better; who knows. I for one am optimistic. Wondering how many will come to blog now from TWC. Fresh blood will be good for the blog. And if not, the vets here will have to crack the whip to keep order. Into the unknown we go. Very glad to be on a blog with such a quality cast though. People genuinely care for each other here. Hard, damn hard, to find a blog where that's the case. Thanks Jeff and all you awesome bloggers for a lot of enjoyment. (Yes I'm including those I ardently disagree with too.)
I was here this morning till 2:30am which explains the lack of sleep and I was in and out all day and early things were active.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I had a terrible toothache when I was a kid. Probably the only other comparable pain I endured was when I hit my left eye on one of these:


Ouch! I am still recovering from a broken right arm which hurt extremely bad. Ive had the brace off for 1 1/2 weeks now but I cant do everything I could do before the injury yet.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
192 HR: Just MAYBE we can get something out of this

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1479 comment Kori; I'm afraid to ask what the heck that is? :)
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1534 - 1484

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
48 °F
Overcast