Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

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Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

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Big steps: CEO Helge Lund has led Statoil to international acquisitions, with a focus on the U.S. Shown here in Houston. Credit: Johannes Worsøe Berg
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Quoting washingtonian115:
While waiting for my impeding doom I'll tell you all this...Remember last year at one point when all the models dropped Irene?.And you know what she became later on and now her name is retired?.Yeah...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Irene...sh e.was.a.prime.timer..its.alittle.early.still.to.ex pect.it
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After a period of calm and boredom...

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Satellites See Unprecedented Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Melt





Yes, a few days ago an "unprecedented" surface melt sent a deluge of melt water through some areas and even appears to have destroyed a bridge. Obviously nothing like that had ever happened before, nor was ever forecast to happen, else the bridge would have been built at a higher elevation.


As I've explained, due to the angle of incidence of sunlight at the poles, much of Greenland is required to melt before a "true" sea ice meltdown occurs.

Perhaps I was a bit idealistic in my prior assessment (or pessimistic depending on your point of view,) but the general concept remains true.

The SST at the pole is only less than 1C above average, while the SST surrounding about the lower 2/3rds of Greenland's coastline are 5C to 8C above average in some places, which suggests that for this year, Greenland's ice cap should be melting several times faster than the Arctic Sea Ice, as measured by Volume.


In addition to the heat of fusion, the 0C melt water is cooling the SST, which means that the SST is in no way representative of the true excess heat budget in the region. Again, one must consider the heat of fusion of the ice, plus the heat budget required to re-heat the resulting 0C water back to the "above average temperatures".


Once a large chunk of the ice cap is totally melted, one might expect the SST in the region to run 15C or more above normal when it can no longer be offset by the heat of fusion or the heat of warming the melt water, since there will be no more ice or melt water to absorb the excess heat.

I suppose it may become possible for category 2 or 3 hurricanes to landfall in Greenland and Iceland in 50 to 100 years or so.
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Quoting LargoFl:




Check how you embed your images.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting washingtonian115:
While waiting for my impeding doom I'll tell you all this...Remember last year at one point when all the models dropped Irene?.And you know what she became later on and now her name is retired?.Yeah...
On top of that the models consistently showed a landfall between Tampa and SW FL. well we all know how that worked out.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh.Lol.You Floridians have the sea breeze to look forward to.We don't :(.
Yep after the campus tour a dark bluish cloud had formed to the northeast. Where I was standing the sun was shining sharp. On our way back on the I4 there was rain (blinding at times) all the way until we got to Tampa.
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While waiting for my impeding doom I'll tell you all this...Remember last year at one point when all the models dropped Irene?.And you know what she became later on and now her name is retired?.Yeah...
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The ongoing MCS is going to get another watch.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1564
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1043 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...FAR SRN OH...WRN/SRN WV...SWRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241543Z - 241645Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEW SVR TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED DOWNSTREAM OF
WW 508 WITHIN THE HOUR.

DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE WITH A HISTORY OF DMGG WIND GUSTS ACROSS
W-CNTRL OH AND ERN IND WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SEWD/SSEWD AT 60-65
MPH INTO A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH STRONG
DEEP SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY...THE FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WILL
POTENTIALLY OFFER A LONG-LIVED THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DMGG WIND GUSTS AS THE LINE CROSSES PARTS OF KY/WV/VA.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7961
Nice storm. The wind was pretty strong, probably gusting to about 60mph. It's also bringing some very welcomed rain.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
At what price? That sounds a little like Walter White boasting that he's once again the largest meth dealer in Albuquerque. Our addiction to fossil fuels is killing us as surely as a junkie's addiction with crystal is killing him.

Sad...


I caught the Breaking Bad reference...
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Quoting Neapolitan:
At what price? That sounds a little like Walter White boasting that he's once again the largest meth dealer in Albuquerque. Our addiction to fossil fuels is killing us as surely as a junkie's addiction with crystal is killing him.

Sad...


Until driven off the scale
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Again...feel free to check out my updated Atlantic blog post...now I have to go back to work...oh boy!
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Large area of 30% wind today
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7961
Owly Images

Wall of rain & high winds on I-75 @ Allen Rd webcam northeast of Cincinnati
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting RitaEvac:
America’s potential oil and gas growth is so great, predicts professor Amy Myers Jaffe of Rice University’s Baker Institute, that by the 2020s the capital of energy will likely have shifted back to the Western Hemisphere, where it was prior to the ascendancy of Middle Eastern mega-suppliers such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in the 1960s.
At what price? That sounds a little like Walter White boasting that he's once again the largest meth dealer in Albuquerque. Our addiction to fossil fuels is killing us as surely as a junkie's addiction with crystal is killing him.

Sad...
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................................almost here
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Not much at 90 hrs
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7961
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Nice developing surface low with the AEW.

Could get a 10-20% at 2pm. Doubt any significant development occurs within the next 96-120 hours. Might be able to redeem itself near the islands.




This will be mentioned in the 2pm update from the NHC as this wave is very strong and could be close to a TD right now.
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Quoting LargoFl:
.ok ty for that, good they do pay up


Monthly checks
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN MINERAL COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT

* AT 1150 AM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS OVER CENTRAL GARRETT COUNTY...OR 9 MILES WEST OF
WESTERNPORT...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KITZMILLER...
SULPHUR CITY...
EMORYVILLE...
MOUNT STORM...
MOUNT PISGAH...
ANTIOCH...
BISMARCK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES IN HILLY OR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS
BECAUSE YOU MAY NOT BE ABLE TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO APPROACH. TAKE
COVER NOW.

&&
..gee you folks be careful up there, this is going to be a severe storm
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
12z GFS very unimpressive so far... 84 hours:

wait around the 144 hr. mark that's when last nights run of the GFS was showing a potent system come off Africa and traversing the Atlantic intact.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting WxGeekVA:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN AND SRN PA...NRN VA...MD...ERN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241548Z - 241715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON.

DISCUSSION...DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
POCKETS OF HEATING AND MIXING. EARLY CELLS CROSSING FROM SWRN PA
INTO MD DID NOT PERSIST...BUT CIN WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS TO FORM WHICH COULD
TRACK FOR LONG DISTANCES ONCE DEVELOPED. THE CELL OVER FAR WRN MD
APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A HAIL THREAT.

OTHER CU OF INTEREST WERE ACROSS NERN OH NEAR THE COLD FRONT.
ADDITIONAL CELLS MAY FORM HERE AND TRACK SEWD WITH A HAIL AND WIND
THREAT.

..JEWELL/HART.. 07/24/2012


Sign..Round 4 it seems.
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SUPERCELLS TO FORM WHICH COULD
TRACK FOR LONG DISTANCES ONCE DEVELOPED


for a second i thought that said long track tornadoes.

whew.
I knew that wasnt happening today
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P.S...I might be eating crow for the statements I made on the Atlantic frontal low...I said it wouldn't become a tropical cyclone...we'll see...

It has just recently become impressive...the key thing to watch for is PERSISTENCE. Y'all know the NHC isn't going to upgrade it until t-storms persist for a while. With it forecast to accelerate NE quickly toward cooler waters....the t-storms may not persist....
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Quoting LargoFl:
..heard on the news last night that is not the case for florida, home prices are beginning to rise again


That's the news that is bought and paid for by corporate America
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Well if you live on land where they hit gold, that's called mineral rights, and yes they do get a check from Big Oil companies
.ok ty for that, good they do pay up
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN MINERAL COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT

* AT 1150 AM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS OVER CENTRAL GARRETT COUNTY...OR 9 MILES WEST OF
WESTERNPORT...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KITZMILLER...
SULPHUR CITY...
EMORYVILLE...
MOUNT STORM...
MOUNT PISGAH...
ANTIOCH...
BISMARCK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES IN HILLY OR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS
BECAUSE YOU MAY NOT BE ABLE TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO APPROACH. TAKE
COVER NOW.

&&
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Quoting Ameister12:
Aww yeah. :)

Just got some pictures of an amazing shelf cloud.
img src="">
wow thats some storm alright
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Aww yeah. :)

Just got some pictures of an amazing shelf cloud.
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Quoting LargoFl:
..gee and i'll bet all those profitting from the extraction could care less....did you folks in texas...get a monthly check from the oil companies? since the oil below texas..is Texans oil..every single texan


Well if you live on land where they hit gold, that's called mineral rights, and yes they do get a check from Big Oil companies
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Even if you buy a car that just runs on battery power, where does the power come from to recharge them. Is it coal or Natural Gas or Nuclear?


Ideally it would eventually be wind, solar, conventional hydro, tidal, and geothermal.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Oh no I meant I was travelling through the Orlando area on my way to Daytona. Yeah I'm sure the humidity is high up there during the summer because I have been to NYC during the summers and it is more awful and unbearable than FL. because your talking triple digits with the humidity. Nevertheless the humidity has been brutal and the sun blazes your skin down here.
Oh.Lol.You Floridians have the sea breeze to look forward to.We don't :(.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
No Good News For The U.S. Economy

Expect single-family housing prices to fall another 20% due to excess inventories. Homeownership rates will slide from foreclosures. Many people suffering from chronic unemployment and the inability to meet mortgage standards will simply give up on the idea of owning a home. So expect more underwater mortgages, more defaults and even less consumer spending.
..heard on the news last night that is not the case for florida, home prices are beginning to rise again
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The MCS in Ohio is not a Derecho.

There is certain criteria that must be met in order for it to be classified as one.

Could become one later though if it takes advantage of the parameters ahead of it.


" By definition, if the wind damage swath extends more than 240 miles (about 400 kilometers) and includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph (93 km/h) or greater along most of its length, then the event may be classified as a derecho. "

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12z GFS very unimpressive so far... 84 hours:

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My usual in-depth tropical update on my blog has been update today...check it out...

Note the time stamp is from very early this morning...so some things maybe a tad outdated....
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Anybody/Everbody in the DC area, watch likely

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN AND SRN PA...NRN VA...MD...ERN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241548Z - 241715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON.

DISCUSSION...DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
POCKETS OF HEATING AND MIXING. EARLY CELLS CROSSING FROM SWRN PA
INTO MD DID NOT PERSIST...BUT CIN WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS TO FORM WHICH COULD
TRACK FOR LONG DISTANCES ONCE DEVELOPED. THE CELL OVER FAR WRN MD
APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A HAIL THREAT.

OTHER CU OF INTEREST WERE ACROSS NERN OH NEAR THE COLD FRONT.
ADDITIONAL CELLS MAY FORM HERE AND TRACK SEWD WITH A HAIL AND WIND
THREAT.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7961
AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather
RT @accu_jesse: Be it Derecho, MCS, or Storm Cluster, it's dropped >50,000 lightning strikes from MN to OH
Link
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Quoting RitaEvac:


We know here in my area

..gee and i'll bet all those profitting from the extraction could care less....did you folks in texas...get a monthly check from the oil companies? since the oil below texas..is Texans oil..every single texan
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN AND SRN PA...NRN VA...MD...ERN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241548Z - 241715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON.

DISCUSSION...DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
POCKETS OF HEATING AND MIXING. EARLY CELLS CROSSING FROM SWRN PA
INTO MD DID NOT PERSIST...BUT CIN WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS TO FORM WHICH COULD
TRACK FOR LONG DISTANCES ONCE DEVELOPED. THE CELL OVER FAR WRN MD
APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A HAIL THREAT.

OTHER CU OF INTEREST WERE ACROSS NERN OH NEAR THE COLD FRONT.
ADDITIONAL CELLS MAY FORM HERE AND TRACK SEWD WITH A HAIL AND WIND
THREAT.

..JEWELL/HART.. 07/24/2012


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Quoting washingtonian115:
Did you like it?.The humidity yesterday was what we get here in D.C during the summer :).
Oh no I meant I was travelling through the Orlando area on my way to Daytona. Yeah I'm sure the humidity is high up there during the summer because I have been to NYC during the summers and it is more awful and unbearable than FL. because your talking triple digits with the humidity. Nevertheless the humidity has been brutal and the sun blazes your skin down here. UV is usually in the 10 range.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting AussieStorm:

Even if you buy a car that just runs on battery power, where does the power come from to recharge them. Is it coal or Natural Gas or Nuclear?
........great question here..I also wanted to know if they have to plug the car into a home outlet etc..and use household electric to charge up the car???..I have a hybrid,uses both gas and battery, MY battery recharges as i drive,have to tell you..the hybrid cars are Great on gas,amazing..im getting just over 46 mph CITY..and the car is 2 years old already..they will get better as time goes on I am sure
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Quoting LargoFl:
..we here in the US must remember One thing..as they pump the oil out of the ground, a void is created underground, and the earth on top sinks...if they keep on pumping the oil..sinkholes Everyone will know about, not just florida..Patrap might be able to say what has happened over in his area...............Here in the U.S., land subsidence induced by the large volume extraction of underground resources including oil and gas %u201Cis more common than most people realize,%u201D according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a government agency which collects, monitors, analyzes and provides scientific understanding about natural resource conditions, issues and problems. Flat coastal plains and wetlands near sea level are most at risk from this potential side effect.


We know here in my area

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Nice developing surface low with the AEW.

Could get a 10-20% at 2pm. Doubt any significant development occurs within the next 96-120 hours. Might be able to redeem itself near the islands.

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Looks decent for something that far up, does anyone think it could be named.

TS Franklin:
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Derecho just north of Cincinnati from Henry Margusity on Twitter:
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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