Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

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Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NRN
PLAINS...UPR MS VLY...OH VLY AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

...MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
A COMPLEX CONVECTIVE FCST HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN
AND THERE WILL BE POTENTIALLY ONE OR MORE AREAS OF INTEREST THAT
DEVELOP AND REQUIRE VERY SHORT-TERM FINE-TUNING OF THE OTLK THROUGH
THIS EVE. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /ACUS11/ AND
CONVECTIVE WATCHES FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

FIRST CONCERN HAS REVOLVED AROUND THE LINEAR MCS LOCATED OVER SW OH
AT 16Z. STORMS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AS NEAR-SFC INFLOW IMPINGES ON
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL FROM THE WSW. PARCELS FEEDING THE MCS ARE
LIKELY CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. THE VERY MOIST
LLVL AIR MASS AND STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT EXTENDS ESE
INTO MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION/CAROLINAS. MEAN 850-500 MB
FLOW SUGGESTS THAT THE MCS WILL CONTINUE ESE THROUGH EXTREME SRN
OH/KY AND INTO SWRN VA AND UPSTATE NC/SC BY THIS EVE. SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH ANY
FORWARD-PROPAGATING BOWING STRUCTURES. ADDITIONALLY...INDIVIDUAL
CELLS ALONG THE TRAILING SW FRINGE OF THE MCS MAY POSE AN ISOLD
TORNADO RISK...PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS OF NRN KY GIVEN A DECENT
VEERING PROFILE BETWEEN SFC-3KM AMIDST A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. IN WAKE
OF THIS MCS...REGION ACROSS IND NWWD INTO THE UPR MS VLY WILL LIKELY
HAVE A BREAK IN SVR CONVECTION PROBABILITIES UNTIL LATER THIS
EVE/OVERNIGHT UNTIL WEAK WSW LLJ IMPINGES ON THE OUTFLOW/FRONT. ANY
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WOULD PRIMARILY BE A HAIL
THREAT...ALTHOUGH DMGG WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A MCS CAN
ORGANIZE ANYWHERE FROM PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY TO IND.

FARTHER N...VSB SATL IMAGERY SUGGESTS AIR MASS WAS COMPARATIVELY
MORE STABLE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE LEE TROUGH POSITION
FARTHER E THAN NORMAL...NAMELY FROM ERN MD TO ERN NC. EARLY MORNING
STORMS N OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE DID NOT PERSIST E OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND THIS HAS ADDED CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
THIS AFTN/EVE. IT IS LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH WITH POSSIBLE ADJUNCT ACTIVITY OVER THE UPR OH VLY/ALLEGHENY
MOUNTAINS THEN MOVING ACROSS NRN VA/ERN MD TO ERN NC BY LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE. REGION WILL RESIDE WITHIN A 40-50 KT WNW H5 WIND MAX WITH
0-6KM SHEAR MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF INITIAL SUPERCELL STORMS.
ACTIVITY WILL ATTAIN A GROWING COLD POOL WITH CONGLOMERATING STORMS
LIKELY PRODUCING DMGG WINDS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST OF MD/VA/NC
THROUGH THIS EVE.

...SE NEW ENGLAND...
CLOUD-FREE ZONES ALONG/SE OF THE SEWD MOVING CDFNT WERE BEGINNING TO
BE INITIATION AREAS FOR TSTMS ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE TO THE
MID-HUDSON VLY OF NY AT 16Z. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS HANG ON TO
THE MID-UPR 60S SFC DEW POINTS OVER SE NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTN
WITH STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER DRY ADVECTION RELEGATED TO AREAS FARTHER
SW IN NE PA/NEW YORK METRO. MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG AND WLY BULK SHEAR
OF 25-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCTD TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT AND
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DMGG WIND GUSTS/HAIL ACROSS SERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS EVE.

...NRN PLAINS...
VERTICALLY STACKED UPR LOW OVER CNTRL ALBERTA AT MID-DAY WILL MOVE
TO SRN SASKATCHEWAN BY TONIGHT. MODEST SPOKE OF VORTICITY EXTENDING
S OVER NWRN MT WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER MT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED CDFNT ARRIVING ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER BY 00Z. REMNANT
1007 MB LOW OVER SWRN SD WILL DRIFT NEWD THROUGH SRN SD WITH A
WRMFNT EXTENDING EWD INTO SRN MN.

LLVL AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY LWR/MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS AND MLCAPE
OF 1500-2000 J/KG WILL WRAP E/N OF THE CYCLONE CENTER THROUGH THIS
AFTN. HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL AID IN SEVERAL
POTENTIAL INITIATION ZONES. ONE WILL BE NEAR THE SFC LOW AND EWD
ALONG THE WRMFNT. ANOTHER WILL BE ALONG THE CDFNT FROM SRN
SASKATCHEWAN SWD TO ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER.

EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS IN COMBINATION WITH MDT
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DMGG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. AN ISOLD TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EARLY ACTIVITY VCNTY
THE SFC LOW/WRMFNT ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER.

..RACY/COHEN.. 07/24/2012

Hey TA! Do you think that 90E will still develop?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
181 AussieStorm Even if you buy a car that just runs on battery power, where does the power come from to recharge them. Is it coal or Natural Gas or Nuclear?

If every automobile were battery-powered, neither coal nor natural gas nor nuclear would be competitive with wind or solar.
The primary barrier to wind and solar is a mismatch between times of greatest production and times of greatest consumption.
Reuse of "worn out" automobile batteries by electric utilities would bridge that gap.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
281. CJ5
Quoting Patrap:
the world cannot stop using fossil fuels at this time


The Warming shall continue, unabated, with more Weather chaos to come.


Fresca?


...and living organism's will continue to adapt.


beer?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1.15" of rain fell in only 25 mins in Madeira, Ohio. Storms continue to press south.
Radar

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NRN
PLAINS...UPR MS VLY...OH VLY AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

...MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
A COMPLEX CONVECTIVE FCST HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN
AND THERE WILL BE POTENTIALLY ONE OR MORE AREAS OF INTEREST THAT
DEVELOP AND REQUIRE VERY SHORT-TERM FINE-TUNING OF THE OTLK THROUGH
THIS EVE. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /ACUS11/ AND
CONVECTIVE WATCHES FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

FIRST CONCERN HAS REVOLVED AROUND THE LINEAR MCS LOCATED OVER SW OH
AT 16Z. STORMS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AS NEAR-SFC INFLOW IMPINGES ON
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL FROM THE WSW. PARCELS FEEDING THE MCS ARE
LIKELY CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. THE VERY MOIST
LLVL AIR MASS AND STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT EXTENDS ESE
INTO MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION/CAROLINAS. MEAN 850-500 MB
FLOW SUGGESTS THAT THE MCS WILL CONTINUE ESE THROUGH EXTREME SRN
OH/KY AND INTO SWRN VA AND UPSTATE NC/SC BY THIS EVE. SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH ANY
FORWARD-PROPAGATING BOWING STRUCTURES. ADDITIONALLY...INDIVIDUAL
CELLS ALONG THE TRAILING SW FRINGE OF THE MCS MAY POSE AN ISOLD
TORNADO RISK...PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS OF NRN KY GIVEN A DECENT
VEERING PROFILE BETWEEN SFC-3KM AMIDST A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. IN WAKE
OF THIS MCS...REGION ACROSS IND NWWD INTO THE UPR MS VLY WILL LIKELY
HAVE A BREAK IN SVR CONVECTION PROBABILITIES UNTIL LATER THIS
EVE/OVERNIGHT UNTIL WEAK WSW LLJ IMPINGES ON THE OUTFLOW/FRONT. ANY
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WOULD PRIMARILY BE A HAIL
THREAT...ALTHOUGH DMGG WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A MCS CAN
ORGANIZE ANYWHERE FROM PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY TO IND.

FARTHER N...VSB SATL IMAGERY SUGGESTS AIR MASS WAS COMPARATIVELY
MORE STABLE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE LEE TROUGH POSITION
FARTHER E THAN NORMAL...NAMELY FROM ERN MD TO ERN NC. EARLY MORNING
STORMS N OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE DID NOT PERSIST E OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND THIS HAS ADDED CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
THIS AFTN/EVE. IT IS LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH WITH POSSIBLE ADJUNCT ACTIVITY OVER THE UPR OH VLY/ALLEGHENY
MOUNTAINS THEN MOVING ACROSS NRN VA/ERN MD TO ERN NC BY LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE. REGION WILL RESIDE WITHIN A 40-50 KT WNW H5 WIND MAX WITH
0-6KM SHEAR MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF INITIAL SUPERCELL STORMS.
ACTIVITY WILL ATTAIN A GROWING COLD POOL WITH CONGLOMERATING STORMS
LIKELY PRODUCING DMGG WINDS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST OF MD/VA/NC
THROUGH THIS EVE.

...SE NEW ENGLAND...
CLOUD-FREE ZONES ALONG/SE OF THE SEWD MOVING CDFNT WERE BEGINNING TO
BE INITIATION AREAS FOR TSTMS ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE TO THE
MID-HUDSON VLY OF NY AT 16Z. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS HANG ON TO
THE MID-UPR 60S SFC DEW POINTS OVER SE NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTN
WITH STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER DRY ADVECTION RELEGATED TO AREAS FARTHER
SW IN NE PA/NEW YORK METRO. MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG AND WLY BULK SHEAR
OF 25-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCTD TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT AND
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DMGG WIND GUSTS/HAIL ACROSS SERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS EVE.

...NRN PLAINS...
VERTICALLY STACKED UPR LOW OVER CNTRL ALBERTA AT MID-DAY WILL MOVE
TO SRN SASKATCHEWAN BY TONIGHT. MODEST SPOKE OF VORTICITY EXTENDING
S OVER NWRN MT WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER MT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED CDFNT ARRIVING ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER BY 00Z. REMNANT
1007 MB LOW OVER SWRN SD WILL DRIFT NEWD THROUGH SRN SD WITH A
WRMFNT EXTENDING EWD INTO SRN MN.

LLVL AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY LWR/MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS AND MLCAPE
OF 1500-2000 J/KG WILL WRAP E/N OF THE CYCLONE CENTER THROUGH THIS
AFTN. HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL AID IN SEVERAL
POTENTIAL INITIATION ZONES. ONE WILL BE NEAR THE SFC LOW AND EWD
ALONG THE WRMFNT. ANOTHER WILL BE ALONG THE CDFNT FROM SRN
SASKATCHEWAN SWD TO ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER.

EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS IN COMBINATION WITH MDT
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DMGG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. AN ISOLD TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EARLY ACTIVITY VCNTY
THE SFC LOW/WRMFNT ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER.

..RACY/COHEN.. 07/24/2012
Why isn't this just all lovely :)..SARCASM FLAG ON.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
MDC001-WVC023-057-241630-
/O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0223.120724T1538Z-120724T1630Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1138 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN ALLEGANY COUNTY IN WESTERN MARYLAND...
MINERAL COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT

* AT 1133 AM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED 14 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WESTERNPORT...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PIEDMONT...
WESTERNPORT...
LONACONING...
KEYSER...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...MOVE INDOORS TO A
STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO
SO...REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Slightly off topic but hilarious!!!

Dirty Deeds: Iranian nuclear program hit by 'AC/DC virus'?


are we supposed to know this or is it another leak?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
..ok the heavy rain has started here, dark skies also, with some wind
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NRN
PLAINS...UPR MS VLY...OH VLY AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

...MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
A COMPLEX CONVECTIVE FCST HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN
AND THERE WILL BE POTENTIALLY ONE OR MORE AREAS OF INTEREST THAT
DEVELOP AND REQUIRE VERY SHORT-TERM FINE-TUNING OF THE OTLK THROUGH
THIS EVE. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /ACUS11/ AND
CONVECTIVE WATCHES FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

FIRST CONCERN HAS REVOLVED AROUND THE LINEAR MCS LOCATED OVER SW OH
AT 16Z. STORMS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AS NEAR-SFC INFLOW IMPINGES ON
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL FROM THE WSW. PARCELS FEEDING THE MCS ARE
LIKELY CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. THE VERY MOIST
LLVL AIR MASS AND STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT EXTENDS ESE
INTO MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION/CAROLINAS. MEAN 850-500 MB
FLOW SUGGESTS THAT THE MCS WILL CONTINUE ESE THROUGH EXTREME SRN
OH/KY AND INTO SWRN VA AND UPSTATE NC/SC BY THIS EVE. SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH ANY
FORWARD-PROPAGATING BOWING STRUCTURES. ADDITIONALLY...INDIVIDUAL
CELLS ALONG THE TRAILING SW FRINGE OF THE MCS MAY POSE AN ISOLD
TORNADO RISK...PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS OF NRN KY GIVEN A DECENT
VEERING PROFILE BETWEEN SFC-3KM AMIDST A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. IN WAKE
OF THIS MCS...REGION ACROSS IND NWWD INTO THE UPR MS VLY WILL LIKELY
HAVE A BREAK IN SVR CONVECTION PROBABILITIES UNTIL LATER THIS
EVE/OVERNIGHT UNTIL WEAK WSW LLJ IMPINGES ON THE OUTFLOW/FRONT. ANY
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WOULD PRIMARILY BE A HAIL
THREAT...ALTHOUGH DMGG WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A MCS CAN
ORGANIZE ANYWHERE FROM PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY TO IND.

FARTHER N...VSB SATL IMAGERY SUGGESTS AIR MASS WAS COMPARATIVELY
MORE STABLE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE LEE TROUGH POSITION
FARTHER E THAN NORMAL...NAMELY FROM ERN MD TO ERN NC. EARLY MORNING
STORMS N OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE DID NOT PERSIST E OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND THIS HAS ADDED CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
THIS AFTN/EVE. IT IS LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH WITH POSSIBLE ADJUNCT ACTIVITY OVER THE UPR OH VLY/ALLEGHENY
MOUNTAINS THEN MOVING ACROSS NRN VA/ERN MD TO ERN NC BY LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE. REGION WILL RESIDE WITHIN A 40-50 KT WNW H5 WIND MAX WITH
0-6KM SHEAR MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF INITIAL SUPERCELL STORMS.
ACTIVITY WILL ATTAIN A GROWING COLD POOL WITH CONGLOMERATING STORMS
LIKELY PRODUCING DMGG WINDS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST OF MD/VA/NC
THROUGH THIS EVE.

...SE NEW ENGLAND...
CLOUD-FREE ZONES ALONG/SE OF THE SEWD MOVING CDFNT WERE BEGINNING TO
BE INITIATION AREAS FOR TSTMS ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE TO THE
MID-HUDSON VLY OF NY AT 16Z. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS HANG ON TO
THE MID-UPR 60S SFC DEW POINTS OVER SE NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTN
WITH STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER DRY ADVECTION RELEGATED TO AREAS FARTHER
SW IN NE PA/NEW YORK METRO. MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG AND WLY BULK SHEAR
OF 25-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCTD TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT AND
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DMGG WIND GUSTS/HAIL ACROSS SERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS EVE.

...NRN PLAINS...
VERTICALLY STACKED UPR LOW OVER CNTRL ALBERTA AT MID-DAY WILL MOVE
TO SRN SASKATCHEWAN BY TONIGHT. MODEST SPOKE OF VORTICITY EXTENDING
S OVER NWRN MT WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER MT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED CDFNT ARRIVING ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER BY 00Z. REMNANT
1007 MB LOW OVER SWRN SD WILL DRIFT NEWD THROUGH SRN SD WITH A
WRMFNT EXTENDING EWD INTO SRN MN.

LLVL AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY LWR/MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS AND MLCAPE
OF 1500-2000 J/KG WILL WRAP E/N OF THE CYCLONE CENTER THROUGH THIS
AFTN. HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL AID IN SEVERAL
POTENTIAL INITIATION ZONES. ONE WILL BE NEAR THE SFC LOW AND EWD
ALONG THE WRMFNT. ANOTHER WILL BE ALONG THE CDFNT FROM SRN
SASKATCHEWAN SWD TO ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER.

EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS IN COMBINATION WITH MDT
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DMGG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. AN ISOLD TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EARLY ACTIVITY VCNTY
THE SFC LOW/WRMFNT ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER.

..RACY/COHEN.. 07/24/2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30253
the world cannot stop using fossil fuels at this time


The Warming shall continue, unabated, with more Weather chaos to come.


Fresca?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1131 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

FLZ039-GMZ850-870-873-241645-
LEVY-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
1131 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

.NOW...
AN AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUED TO MOVE
INTO LEVY COUNTY FROM THE MARINE WATERS THAT EXTENDED OUT BEYOND 60
NM WEST OF CEDAR KEY...AND WEST OF SAINT PETERSBURG. MOVEMENT WAS
EAST NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...EXPECT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN OF UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR... WIND GUSTS TO
30 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IN AND NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD PRODUCE CHOPPY SEAS.

$$

RHEA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I don't wanna go through this crap again..(all though that's not the word I wanna use)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
269. CJ5
Quoting Neapolitan:
At what price? That sounds a little like Walter White boasting that he's once again the largest meth dealer in Albuquerque. Our addiction to fossil fuels is killing us as surely as a junkie's addiction with crystal is killing him.

Sad...


Unlike a junkie, the world cannot stop using fossil fuels at this time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

What program is that?

GREarth.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30253
LOL saw this on Reddit...



Gave me a good laugh, cause I'm one of those Facebook meteorologists!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Dr. Masters...Good morning everyone!

Daily SOI: 0.5
30 Day SOI: -1.8
90 Day SOI: -4.1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NWS in Wilmington, NC

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:40 AM TUESDAY...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON
THE 1200 NAM AND 0600 UTC GFS. INCREASED VALUES QUICKLY FROM
ISOLATED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS TO LIKELY BY 2100 UTC. THIS
MAY BE A BIT QUICK FOR THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
AN EXPECTED MCS...BUT TIMING REMAINS A BIT PROBLEMATIC. MORE
CONFIDENT ABOUT MCS MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 0000 AND 0600
UTC SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ON THIS GRADIENT. SPC CONTINUES
TO HAVE THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL. TIMING WILL ALLOW MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES TO
APPROACH 3K WITH 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASING WITH THE ENHANCED NORTHWEST
FLOW. IN SHORT...ALL ELEMENTS APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
HEAT ADVISORY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
ON TRACK...NO OTHER CHANGES.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

What program is that?

He's using GREarth.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
262. CJ5
Quoting LargoFl:
..gee and i'll bet all those profitting from the extraction could care less....did you folks in texas...get a monthly check from the oil companies? since the oil below texas..is Texans oil..every single texan


Yes. The Tx .gov and federal .gov get monthly checks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What program is that?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
The 12Z NAM for today,


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Usually SPC has updated their discussion before now and they havent..not a good sign..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ha, Gfs shows nadda guess it was teasing us last night
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
This is the image AussieStorm linked to in his post of CAPE over 5000:


Here are some clearer images.

SBCAPE:



MUCAPE:


MLCAPE:



Area with the highest tornado threat at the current time:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30253
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Quoting AussieStorm:

#Cincywx storm pic. Beyond ominous -
Severe Studios %u200F@severestudios

Very scary looking shelf cloud. Pretty much what I saw about thirty minutes ago.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
WOW!! Mid-Day CAPE values insane 5000j/kg+
Link

Oh wow! That's not good.
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Stronger high out over the Azores in 150 hrs! up 2 mb. from the 00z GFS run. I think the strength will make a difference as to if we get development or not. Actually judging by the looks of things the high bridges with the Bermuda high and no signs of a trough.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
On top of that the models consistently showed a landfall between Tampa and SW FL. well we all know how that worked out.


that should mean that it wont hit there, usually the first target never get hits ;) let's hope it stays that way!

btw...hello everyone!! back to lurking I go!
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Deleted
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
This is the image AussieStorm linked to in his post of CAPE over 5000:

Almost the entire state of VA is in the 5000=+ cape range.
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#Cincywx storm pic. Beyond ominous -
Severe Studios ‏@severestudios
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
Quoting AussieStorm:
WOW!! Mid-Day CAPE values insane 5000j/kg+
Link


May be 6000 in some isolated locations. After all, the scale stops at 5000 = the border of white and pink, but there is widespread white on the map.
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Another photo of Dr Masters blog.
Heads up!!!!!!!!!!

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
Norwegians battling Chinese and Koreans to invest in America, learning U.S. know-how and sharing it with the Russians. Welcome to the future of energy.
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This is the image AussieStorm linked to in his post of CAPE over 5000:

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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Come back to me when it's OVER 9000!!!!

Seriously though, not good...
We're in pink :(.That's the highest.
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I was supposed to be doing these everyday. Don't ask me what happened to that 'cause I don't know, lol.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30253
Quoting AussieStorm:
WOW!! Mid-Day CAPE values insane 5000j/kg+
Link


Come back to me when it's OVER 9000!!!!

Seriously though, not good...
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Quoting Neapolitan:
At what price? That sounds a little like Walter White boasting that he's once again the largest meth dealer in Albuquerque. Our addiction to fossil fuels is killing us as surely as a junkie's addiction with crystal is killing him.

Sad...


At least in the short term we wouldn't be funding muslim terrorists or caliphates any longer.


By the way, who are the "good guys" in Syria?

I can't tell, it seems the rebels are just as evil as the regime; robbing from civilians and such.

I figure we should employ the Free For All strategy and let both sides deplete one another. We can then replace the winners anyway if we don't like them.
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Slightly off topic but hilarious!!!

Dirty Deeds: Iranian nuclear program hit by 'AC/DC virus'?
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Link

this is the radar TWC is directing us to on G+ right now
i hate this radar, but i suppose non weather fanatics must love it
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WOW!! Mid-Day CAPE values insane 5000j/kg+
Link
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
Quoting WxGeekVA:
After a period of calm and boredom...

Seems like anything is possible now.
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Big steps: CEO Helge Lund has led Statoil to international acquisitions, with a focus on the U.S. Shown here in Houston. Credit: Johannes Worsøe Berg
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.