Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

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Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Neapolitan:
Sociological adaptation is a slow and arduous process; biological adaptation is even more slow and more arduous. Forcing rapid, large-scale adaptation on an organism generally works about as well as stepping on a child's party balloon as a way of forcing it to adapt to your weight.


Popping back in...

I disagree Nea. I think evolution can happen at an extremely rapid pace, within a few generations (though that won't be enough for us.)

Here is how it works: out of a million people born, a few have a body shape that allows them to keep cool, say big ears, extremely thin frame, whatever works. The rest of us die. Those few 'freaks' have a tendency to pass on that gene.

In a few generations, those lucky 100,000 or so can adapt more or less. The rest of us die. Of course, out of those 100,000, there has to be new adaptations to even higher temperatures and changes in diet. But some will probably survive:

The kock borthers with their store of faschist propaganda, and a few other dug in people will become the mole people. All we need is a time machine to tell how it ends.
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Quoting LargoFl:
..in my entire life I have never seen nor driven thru..something like that..must be awful


Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Is the storms in Ohio Valley a derecho? People have been predicting it since yesterday and the storm is looking like derecho with the storms moving so fast and leaving tons of people without power.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8032
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Has there ever been a subtropical storm in the Eastern Pacific?
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231 RTSplayer As I've explained, due to the angle of incidence of sunlight at the poles, much of Greenland is required to melt before a "true" sea ice meltdown occurs.

And you are completely&utterly wrong. 'bout like saying that all the glaciers in America hafta melt before the ice in your BigGulp will.
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Powerful summer thunderstorms roared across eastern Iowa into northern Illinois and northern Indiana Tuesday, downing trees and snapping power lines.

About 175,000 ComEd customers were without electrical power in the Chicago area and blinking traffic lights and debris on train tracks slowed the morning commute for thousands, a ComEd spokeswoman said. Downed trees and broken limbs were reported throughout the metropolitan region.

The fast-moving line of storms, called a derecho by meteorologists, was clocked at up to 55 mph and packed top winds reaching 70 mph north and south of Chicago, the Chicago Tribune said. Winds gusted at 61 mph at Midway Airport halting early morning flight operations. At least 35 flights were canceled at O'Hare International Airport, Accuweather.com said, and incoming flights were not permitted to land.

Golfball-size hail pelted Wellsville, Ohio.

Forecasters said high humidity would continue to fire strong storms as they barrel southeast into southern Ohio and northern Kentucky.

Hail and high winds were reported from thunderstorms in southwestern Pennsylvania and West Virginia.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Quoting Patrap:
Ranchers sell cattle as U.S. drought spreads
Published: Tuesday, July 24, 2012, 11:00 AM


Kansas cattleman Ken Grecian sold 20 pairs of cows and calves a few weeks after drought had sucked his pastures dry and no rain was in the forecast. He sold 20 more pairs Friday. Grecian spent years meticulously breeding his cows to improve the genetics in each generation, but with Kansas in one of the worst droughts seen in decades, he's struggling to find enough grazing to feed 300 cows, plus their calves. He hopes to get by with selling only a quarter of his herd, but there are no guarantees with the drought expected to linger through October.


Wouldn't it be nice if we could genetically engineer a "meat plant" which could be grown indoors in a greenhouse or hydroponics facility, and consequently be much less expensive; no vet costs, no broken legs or thrown calves, etc, more efficient in terms of energy converted directly to final food product, with no bones and no wasted energy from an animal moving around?!

Hey, they can splice an eel into a salmon, or a BT bacterial toxin gene into corn. They're also splicing human DNA into sugar cane crops for mass producing certain medical antibodies and other compounds, a fact of which most are probably not aware. Why not make beef from lettuce or some other plant?!


If I had a choice between BT corn and a "Meat Plant" I'd take the meat plant, because the BT corn is engineered from a gene that codes for insecticide poison.
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Here is the position of the jet stream near the Great Lakes today which helps explain how fast that squall line is moving along;

Link
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Quoting AussieStorm:

..in my entire life I have never seen nor driven thru..something like that..must be awful
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Quoting LargoFl:
Link..dust storm

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
101 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

PAZ065-066-241730-
LANCASTER PA-YORK PA-
101 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL YORK AND WEST CENTRAL
LANCASTER COUNTIES...

AT 1259 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR BAINBRIDGE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT MAYTOWN...COLUMBIA AND MOUNTVILLE.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-83 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 24 AND 29.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...STATE HIGHWAY
283...ROUTE 30...ROUTE 222.
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Link..dust storm
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Quoting AussieStorm:

There is a down side to to many people with solar panels.
Here in Sydney, power prices are going up even though more and more people are having solar panels installed, why? The Govt. subsidised them so in the end, if my neighbour got solar panels, i would end up paying for it in my power bill, even if it's 1cent.
Understood AS, I'm just saying that done collectively , what a major advance to help cut back on fossil fuel use. I'm not saying its the panacea for doing away with fossile fuel entirely, but it would be a major step in the right direction. It would need leadership to get us there, sort of like a JFK moment that got us on the moon. But I suspect the oil/gas industry would fight every step of the way, pollution and ecology be damned!
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Quoting ilovehurricanes13: post #294
cool, do you see that boundary movement arcing away from the wave? it ripples through a stable mass of cumulus.. neat!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
It's all ways good to wish right?.Lol.


Wishing gives you a false sense of safety.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys look like the tropics are preparing for war. should we? I think we should


That's what I've been saying all along..
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
hey guys look like the tropics are preparing for war. should we? I think we should
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AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather
Flash flooding is a big concern for southern WV, including Charleston, in the path of the derecho.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Quoting RTSplayer:


I don't think it's that bad at the moment.

CAPE is only potential energy.

There isn't a lot of vorticity in the region and the low is only a 1012mb low. Nothing like what you typically see in tornado outbreaks.

Max sustained wind is less than 50kts and max VIL is less than 50, plus the wind is actually dying down right now, at least according to the radar. So for the moment it should not be as bad as the previous events.


Aready a tornado warning issued for Mineral, Hampshire and Grant counties in WV this morning, although I think it's "merely" a severe storm warning at the present. Lots of juice to pull from... we may need a lot of Fresca this afternoon :)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 12Z GFS does not develop the first nor the second tropical wave.


i agree with it.
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Quoting RussianWinter:


Have you seen the high pressures?

Not this season. Peace time is over, time to prepare for war!
It's all ways good to wish right?.Lol.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
The models will flip flop around like that..It may have it next run.We just need something to track.Hopefully out to sea.


Have you seen the high pressures?

Not this season. Peace time is over, time to prepare for war!
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
Published on Jul 24, 2012 by AFP

More than 100 people are injured and trees are ripped from the ground as Typhoon Vicente lashes Hong Kong packing winds in excess of 140 kilometres (87 miles) an hour. Duration: 00:58

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@stormchasernick: Duke Energy reporting over 36,000 without power across Cincinnati.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
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Quoting HouGalv08:
Been to Europe recently? Solar panels seen all over the place, especially when I was in Germany, France , Italy. They are doing what WE should be doing over here in the U.S.A. Read an article recently that in the heat wave of 2008, Germany was selling EXCESS SOLAR GENERATED POWER to the French because thier Nuc facilities couldn't keep up with demand. We have to be willing to give up our polluting, huge gas hogs and make the switch!

There is a down side to to many people with solar panels.
Here in Sydney, power prices are going up even though more and more people are having solar panels installed, why? The Govt. subsidised them so in the end, if my neighbour got solar panels, i would end up paying for it in my power bill, even if it's 1cent.
I forgot to mention. We now have the Carbon tax, which is added to the power bill, then the GST is added, so we are paying a tax on a tax. Don't ya just love a money grabbing Govt..
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
166 CapeFearRising: Weird. You must have gotten a bad batch somehow. I moved into my house in May of 2008 (I know, terrible timing, don't remind me) and haven't had to replace a single lightbulb except for the old round ones for the bathroom lights and the skinny old-fashioned chandelier bulbs.
The new CFL lightbulbs I put in are all going strong 4 years later.


Bad light switches. CFLs wear out from having to handle the high-power spikes caused by sparking.
Also, lightbulb-replacement CFLs specificly state that they should not be used in closed lamp-housings.
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@robmarcianoCNN: ComEd is reporting 182K w/out power in #Chicago area as of 9 AM CT from early morning storms.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Preferably you would charge the batteries from solar cells on parking garages, parking lots and home garages. While these charging stations are not common now, all new construction should be able to incorporate the solar cells cheaper than a retrofit. Even the money spent on a retrofit could be recovered in a few years. The higher the cost of gasoline, the quicker your return on investment. Once the system is paid for your only cost will be for maintenance and the energy is free. You can even sell back any energy you do not use to the power company. Once they extend the range some of the all electric cars then I will be going to an all electric car.
Been to Europe recently? Solar panels seen all over the place, especially when I was in Germany, France , Italy. They are doing what WE should be doing over here in the U.S.A. Read an article recently that in the heat wave of 2008, Germany was selling EXCESS SOLAR GENERATED POWER to the French because thier Nuc facilities couldn't keep up with demand. We have to be willing to give up our polluting, huge gas hogs and make the switch!
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Quoting ilovehurricanes13:

Has great rotation.
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Ranchers sell cattle as U.S. drought spreads
Published: Tuesday, July 24, 2012, 11:00 AM


Kansas cattleman Ken Grecian sold 20 pairs of cows and calves a few weeks after drought had sucked his pastures dry and no rain was in the forecast. He sold 20 more pairs Friday. Grecian spent years meticulously breeding his cows to improve the genetics in each generation, but with Kansas in one of the worst droughts seen in decades, he's struggling to find enough grazing to feed 300 cows, plus their calves. He hopes to get by with selling only a quarter of his herd, but there are no guarantees with the drought expected to linger through October.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 12Z GFS does not develop the first nor the second tropical wave.
The models will flip flop around like that..It may have it next run.We just need something to track.Hopefully out to sea.
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Quoting CJ5:


...and living organism's will continue to adapt.


beer?
Sociological adaptation is a slow and arduous process; biological adaptation is even more slow and more arduous. Forcing rapid, large-scale adaptation on an organism generally works about as well as stepping on a child's party balloon as a way of forcing it to adapt to your weight.
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The 12Z GFS does not develop the first nor the second tropical wave.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. It's running out of time to and hasn't made any strides to become better organized over the past 36 hours.

Thanks much!
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Unless you want to live in the dark, eat canned foods and drink hot water, and ride a bicycle for the rest of your life.
Let the extreamest do that.But I won't.I agree that there are other ways such as clean energy that we can use..I'm off of this subject.Now back to my impending doom.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Unless you want to live in the dark, eat canned foods and drink hot water, and ride a bicycle for the rest of your life.


I'm from Nawlin's, we eat nothing from a can I can assure you.

And I have 3 Bikes..


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Quoting CJ5:


...and living organism's will continue to adapt.


beer?


er, dat aint da trend at'all.


You should read a tad more befo' spouting off nonsense


Extinction Today


Based on analysis of the fossil record, researchers estimate that most species on Earth have an overall life span of about 10 million years. It's an ongoing cycle of plants, animals and microscopic organisms appearing in the fossil record, remaining for about 10 million years and disappearing. Most likely, this is the natural state of life on Earth, regardless of exactly what species are alive.

However, live forms are dying out much faster today than they appear to at any point in the fossil record. As we discussed earlier, the background rate of extinction is somewhere between one and five species per year. But today, the extinction rate appears to be anywhere from 100 to 1,000 times greater than that [source: Holsinger]. Exact numbers are hard to pin down. No one knows exactly how many species are alive on Earth today. On top of that, it can be difficult to impossible to determine whether a plant or animal has died out. Even after exhaustive searches, researchers have declared some animals extinct only to find new specimens later.

The major cause of these extinctions isn't global warming or acid rain -- it's habitat loss. As the human population grows and more of the planet becomes industrialized, natural habitats for plants and animals disappear. As species that lived in these habitats die, the level of biodiversity decreases. The loss of plant and animal species can lead to everything from food shortages to poor soil quality. The loss of microscopic organisms can also play a role. For example, one theory about the Permian-Triassic extinction is that helpful marine bacteria became extinct, and the bacteria that flourished as a result produced hydrogen sulphide and caused acid rain.

Human behavior is also causing other ecosystem stresses, such as pollution, which could threaten species with extinction. Global changes,such as global warming, play a role in extinction as well. In theory, addressing these issues might slow the rate of extinction, but it's unclear how long it might take animal and plant populations to return to normal.
Regardless of whether a mass extinction is looming, researchers agree that the loss of biodiversity has a negative impact on ecosystems. To learn more about whether to expect a mass extinction in the near future, read Will we soon be extinct? If you'd like to know more about biodiversity, conservation and related topics, see the links on the next page.

WHO DECLARES EXTINCTION?

There's no worldwide body responsible for determining which life forms are extinct and which aren't. Often, the declaration that a species has become extinct comes after an exhaustive physical search by a particular research team. However, several groups track the conservation status[/b] of plants and animals. These groups rank animals according to whether they're threatened, endangered or apparently safe. One is the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN), which maintains the Red List of Threatened Species. On the 2007 red list, 16,306 species are listed as threatened with extinction.
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Quoting nigel20:

Hey TA! Do you think that 90E will still develop?

No. It's running out of time to and hasn't made any strides to become better organized over the past 36 hours.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
Quoting Patrap:
the world cannot stop using fossil fuels at this time


The Warming shall continue, unabated, with more Weather chaos to come.


Fresca?
Unless you want to live in the dark, eat canned foods and drink hot water, and ride a bicycle for the rest of your life.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Idk but it's hilarious. My dad was dying of laughter when he read that because he's a huge AC/DC fan and he's a web design guy too so it's right up his alley!


too bad the iranians probably couldnt understand it anyway
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Been busy at work and just saw your entry Dr. Particularly this part:

aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events,

I don't know that we will ever have a model that can predict an RI event several days in advance. They are getting better with the forecasts and some issues are obvious, such as a pending track over the Gulf Stream or a warm/pool or loop current eddy in the Gulf of Mexico (in terms of Atlantic season storms), but an unanticipated drop in sheer (or other short-term factor withing the organic domain of Mother Nature) is a tough nut to crack.

Best I can see, in terms of a possible RI scenario, is a forecast suggesting possible intensification over the Gulf Stream or loop current/eddy passage over the next 24 hours, etc.

In terms of the correlation between lightening and RI, the research suggests a real short 3-5 hour window between the increased lightening and the RI; not too much lead time and totally unpredictable if you ask me.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


are we supposed to know this or is it another leak?


Idk but it's hilarious. My dad was dying of laughter when he read that because he's a huge AC/DC fan and he's a web design guy too so it's right up his alley!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Quoting WxGeekVA:




I don't think it's that bad at the moment.

CAPE is only potential energy.

There isn't a lot of vorticity in the region and the low is only a 1012mb low. Nothing like what you typically see in tornado outbreaks.

Max sustained wind is less than 50kts and max VIL is less than 50, plus the wind is actually dying down right now, at least according to the radar. So for the moment it should not be as bad as the previous events.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.