Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

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Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MississippiWx:


Sure. You and I have characteristics of an ape. Does that make us one? I don't think so...
BWAHAHAHA...
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting MississippiWx:


Sure. You and I have characteristics of an ape. Does that make us one? I don't think so...

It means we have characteristics of one. That's why they have subtropical classifications...for storms that contain both characteristics.
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MCS is starting to feed off of some more unstable parameters.

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Quoting aspectre:
231 RTSplayer As I've explained, due to the angle of incidence of sunlight at the poles, much of Greenland is required to melt before a "true" sea ice meltdown occurs.

And you are completely&utterly wrong. 'bout like saying that all the glaciers in America hafta melt before the ice in your BigGulp will.


No, it is not.

The fact is the extreme north pole is in total darkness for a far longer portion of the year than is the land mass of Greenland, which makes all the difference.


If I was wrong, then why are not the SST anomalies directly in the pole as high as that around Alaska and Greenland?

Approximately 80% of the net warming is actually not from the Greenhouse effect itself, but rather from second order positive albedo feedback, which is effected by latitude according to the same scale as the cosine of the angle of difference of the Sun light from the Normal.

Calculate the difference for that for the Pole vs 75n for the Summer, or for the pole vs 60N for the winter, and you will see an enormous difference.

Because of all this, the rate of melting directly at the pole hits a natural limit far earlier than that of ice 15 or 30 degrees away from the pole.

The rate of melting of sea ice should level off ni a few years, but the rate of melting of land ice will continue accelerated exponentially until it matches pass with a certain hyperbolic curve and approaches the same asymtote, however, the asymtote moves upward every year due to CO2 being added to the atmosphere.

Take Equinox, when the Sun is normal to the Equator.

Cosine of 60 = 0.5 (as comparing solar constant at 60N to the equator due to angle of incidence.)

Cosine 75 = 0.2588

Cosine 80 = 0.1736

Cosine 90 = 0 (though atmospheric lensing and twilight is a bit more than this).


Summer Solstice (using 22.5 degrees as the offset).

Cosine (60 - 22.5) = 0.7933

Cosine (80 - 22.5) = 0.5372


Winter Slistice (using +22.5 degrees as the offset).

Cosine (60 + 22.5) = 0.0262

cosine (80 + 22.5) = - 0.2164 (which is tilted totally away from the sun).



Of course, when you do this day by day, you will see obviously that the Greenland, Alaska, and Canadian land masses receive far more positive feedback due to snow pack melts and permanent glacier melts than the interior of arctic, which of course the SST anomaly maps all plainly show as well.




Note the abrupt cutoff near 80N, where in some locations the water is even below normal again, whereas between 60N and 80N it is very much above normal, almost everywhere, with some reasonable allowance for cloud cover or turbulence.


At any rate, the worst heating is occurring between 60N and 80N, which is exactly where you'd expect it to be if the primary driver of the warming is the second order albedo feedback.


The CO2 itself is relatively slow in producing warming, and the keeling curve is growing along a curve approximating the population growth curve, though lagging behind by about 15 to 20 years.

The albedo feedback on the other hand, can double every 5 to 10 years for regions with 1m thick average ice cover, and it grows exponentially until all ice is exhausted, although limited by the curvature of the Earth's surface as discussed at length above. This can be proven geometrically with a few minutes worth of consideration.
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If this were to be declared an Ernesto that would be the 5th time this year.All the storms so far would have skipped T.D status.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17482
Quoting washingtonian115:
That there deserves a 40% chance in my opinion.Looks really good.98L is trying to steal the show from the African wave.
I agree hope it becomes Ernesto I am going with 30% but 40 is also a possibility.
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HUGE Thunderstorm watch for Virginia, NC, Maryland, and DC. Tornado warnings is issued for area about 50 miles from DC.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8041
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They may not be completely tropical in nature but they have characteristics of such.


Sure. You and I have characteristics of an ape. Does that make us one? I don't think so...
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Not sure if there is a correlation between these frontal developments and climate change or what, but this is getting ridiculous. To me, there needs to be a separate category for these cold-core transitions as they are not truly tropical in nature. The conditions in the true tropical breeding grounds have been very hostile this year, but we could very easily be at storm #5 already. If this becomes Ernesto, 4 of 5 storms will have been from non-tropical origins.

One could argue that before the satellite area these storms were not picked up.Even 10 years ago this system would have gone undetected.Then again waters have been warmer further north.And that could be in part to the very warm winter we had.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17482
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


you don't know that each wave is diffrent any thing can happen at any time for all we know that low in the E atl could be a TD right now


Wrong,, the potential increases as we get into the deeper part of the CV season.


A TD?

Ok..you can go with dat.

But well, itsa WAVE for now aint it?
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First Atlantic major just around the corner? Wonder if the wave coming off Africa will develop quickly allowing it to curve NE out of harms way; or if it'll be very slow to develop and take the southern route and be a problem. Or will it only get an invest and not make it? Should start flying in here again, I'll go back into lurker mode and soak it all up. Love watching the development in the Pacific, but not nearly as much as tracking an Atlantic, Gulf, or Caribbean system. As much as I really hope against land falling systems, when they do happen it's edgy and I get engrossed in the details and possible implications. Always loved to track and learn about the weather and climate but after being engrossed by Katrina I really became a lover of tropical systems. Watched every moment of coverage of the aftermath of Katrina that I could. Coworker of mine here now in Wisconsin (he left after Katrina) was in a large tied down trailer very close to the coast. He gave me vivid details of the landfall, he was in the heart of Katrina's winds. He looked terrified still as he retold his story to me. Thought for sure he was going to die that night and he said he would never return to live by the coast again.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Not sure if there is a correlation between these frontal developments and climate change or what, but this is getting ridiculous. To me, there needs to be a separate category for these cold-core transitions as they are not truly tropical in nature. The conditions in the true tropical breeding grounds have been very hostile this year, but we could very easily be at storm #5 already. If this becomes Ernesto, 4 of 5 storms will have been from non-tropical origins.


They may not be completely tropical in nature but they have characteristics of such.
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Quoting Patrap:


I was speaking of this particular wave, not one in Late Aug or Sept.



you don't know that each wave is diffrent any thing can happen at any time for all we know that low in the E atl could be a TD right now
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FYI... for those discussing and inquiring about the compact fluorescent light bulb issues, the following information and perspective might be helpful.

It appears that a mechanism by which CFLs can lead to a fire have to do with the end of the CFL bulb's life cycle. This is in contrast to incandescent, which have some fire danger during their typical life cycle due to substantially larger amounts of waste heat. When the gas or coils in the CFL no longer function, the electrical parts still do, and it is hypothesized that the electrical charge left in the bulb could be a mechanism for overheating, bulb damage, and possible fire. This is the only mechanism for fire danger that I could find. I could find a few news articles indicating some CFLs made before 2009 were recalled due to potentially faulty bulb bases.

In context: As of Dec 2011, the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission had 34 reports of CFLs that emitted smoke or a burning odor; 4 reports of the CFLs catching fire. Statistics for CFL sales in 2009 indicate over 270,000,000 bulbs were purchased.

More research: Consumer Reports addressed the CFL burnout issue last year. They write: "In our labs, we'e tested 77 models of compact fluorescent lightbulbs over the last five years, for a combined 2,680,000 hours of light" and then "We've never seen a bulb create smoke or overheat enough at the end of its life to cause any noticeable physical damage to itself."

Follow-up: Standards were revised for CFLs sold in North America in 2009 by that pesky anti-free-market government that required some changes to the materials used in the base of the bulbs, in an attempt to further reduce the already-near-non-existent threat of fire.

Personal experience with CFLs: I've used CFLs for years. I've yet to have a CFL burb out, nor have I noticed any damage to CFL bases. This discussion on the forum post was the first time I've ever heard about any damage or overheating of CFL bulbs, from anyone.

For more information and sourcing, search research done by consumer reports, and do a google news search for something like "CFL fire," taking particular care to discriminate sources wisely, avoiding politically-motivated think tank sites. In doing so, the answer seems to become much more clear and apparent - CFL bulbs are by far a better option. Just like the "omg electric cars catch fire!" claims we've heard before, this is a strawman/red herring argument. Gasoline powered-cars had risk of fire and explosion. Incandescent bulbs could cause fires. CFLs are probably safer - when comparing data correctly.
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After a freaking month of nothing, the tropics are finally starting to heat up!

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Quoting StormTracker2K:


The reason for that post was the September usually has lots of recurves and if Cape Verde is beginning now then August usually features weak troughs and ridging near the Mid Atlantic coast so this could be bad as we move into August.


OK
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I've had the new Bulbs for 4 years now, and only have replaced 2.

And they took out my old bulbs and replaced all of them for free.

I save about 10-13% on Avg since then with them

www.greenlightneworleans.org

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Not sure if there is a correlation between these frontal developments and climate change or what, but this is getting ridiculous. To me, there needs to be a separate category for these cold-core transitions as they are not truly tropical in nature. The conditions in the true tropical breeding grounds have been very hostile this year, but we could very easily be at storm #5 already. If this becomes Ernesto, 4 of 5 storms will have been from non-tropical origins.

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They seem to be developing at higher latitudes lately.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Not too shabby...



Ernesto by tonight or tomorrow from 98L.

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That there deserves a 40% chance in my opinion.Looks really good.98L is trying to steal the show from the African wave.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17482
CRAS model still showing a heavy rain event for the S.E. in 4 to 5 days..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21757
Quoting pottery:

Take it easy.
There is no Tropical Storm there, yet.


The reason for that post was the September usually has lots of recurves and if Cape Verde is beginning now then August usually features weak troughs and ridging near the Mid Atlantic coast so this could be bad as we move into August.

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


they only develop if you dont watch them
LOL oh yeah I'm all to familiar with that.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Why say "we" as that denotes inclusive.

I'm not in that group/camp thinking for sho.

: )

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Not too shabby...

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Quoting Patrap:
Hard to tell with any early wave what the synoptic pattern out 10-13 days will be.

We watch, we observe..we sing,

We dance.


..Wanna Whole lotta invest's


...spin for me storm, wanna be your weather man...
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Been using the new light bulbs for awhile now. Hate em, they don't last like they say they do. Majority I've used burn out in under three months. One started my lamp on fire. Now have a huge stock of the old ones.
Wow. I got one in my bedside lamp that I been using since... 07? 08? I put it in when I bought this new lamp... haven't changed it since. I dunno if brand or frequency of use makes any difference. I have been replacing the older bulbs as they go bad, and have only had to replace one of the new bulbs... maybe 2x so far...

Amazing difference in performance.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22575
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

not intirely true. I have seen where the NHC has labled an invest with waves and lows that came off of the coast 12-24 hours and NHC calls it invest so not really they will call it soon when they call it


I was speaking of this particular wave, not one in Late Aug or Sept.

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

not intirely true. I have seen where the NHC has labled an invest with waves and lows that came off of the coast 12-24 hours and NHC calls it invest so not really they will call it soon when they call it



I've seen TS right on the African coast before. Interesting 2 coming up for sure as we should have 2 circles.
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... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 145 PM EDT for Hardy...
Shenandoah and Rockingham counties...

At 120 PM EDT... a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Mathias... or 15 miles southeast of Moorefield... and
was moving southeast at 35 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Basye...
Orkney Springs...
Edinburg...
Mount Jackson...
Forestville...
Shenandoah Caverns...
Quicksburg...
Timberville...
Broadway...

Take cover now. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building and avoid windows. If outdoors or in a Mobile home or
vehicle... move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes in hilly or mountainous terrain are especially dangerous
because you may not be able to see or hear the tornado approach. Take
cover now.


Lat... Lon 3895 7889 3898 7882 3879 7848 3858 7880
time... Mot... loc 1723z 329deg 30kt 3886 7878
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504
WUUS51 KRLX 241727
SVRRLX
WVC035-039-053-079-087-241800-
/O.NEW.KRLX.SV.W.0137.120724T1727Z-120724T1800Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
127 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTH CENTRAL KANAWHA COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...
EAST CENTRAL MASON COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHEASTERN PUTNAM COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...
SOUTHWESTERN ROANE COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT

* AT 122 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11
MILES WEST OF KENNA...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RIPLEY...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
GIVEN...FAIRPLAIN...STATTS MILLS...LIBERTY AND KENTUCK..

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-77 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
113 AND 135 IN WEST VIRGINIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO FALL FROM THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...AND
WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES
AND SMALL STREAMS.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.



LAT...LON 3864 8140 3845 8155 3869 8198 3884 8185
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 303DEG 25KT 3871 8181



12

CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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Invest 98L:

Chris Part 2
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
You are now looking at Invest 98L, yes something to track!





they only develop if you dont watch them
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Quoting Patrap:
The NHC wont tag anything just off the African coast until they see it persist a few days.

The NAVY NRL declares invests, not the NHC.

not intirely true. I have seen where the NHC has labled an invest with waves and lows that came off of the coast 12-24 hours and NHC calls it invest so not really they will call it soon when they call it
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Invest 98L:
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Hard to tell with any early wave what the synoptic pattern out 10-13 days will be.

We watch, we observe..we sing,

We dance.


..Wanna Whole lotta invest's
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You are now looking at Invest 98L, yes something to track!



Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
The Nhc will look for consistency with 98L, as they did with Chris earlier on...
We could get Ernesto ... Briefly out of 98L though it wouldn't get above 60 mph.
The Tropical waves coming off of Africa are the main threat for MAJOR development of the next 7 days.
In about 10 minutes the TWO will be Issued:
My guess is...
40% for 98L
and 20% mention for Tropical wave off of Africa.
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98L appears to have developed a surface low rather quickly.

Could have a decent shot at becoming Ernesto.
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Quoting Patrap:
The 12Z NAM for today,



Keep me posted with that Pat- I'm under the second black dot from the top :) and hoping it moves further south. Not to wish it others... but we had ours already!

The new tornado warning is directly south of the town where I work, a derecho may or may be forming to hit this evening, and there is definately a new thunderstorm forming NE near Pittsburgh and moving south and east. Welcome to the new normal, WV!
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Quoting Patrap:
The NHC wont tag anything just off the African coast until they see it persist a few days.

The NAVY NRL declares invests, not the NHC.
Pat I personally think the NHC will wait another 12-24 hours before declaring it.

Articuno Yeah yeah yeah I've seen the sever weather statement..lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17482
Quoting Neapolitan:
Let the fun...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201207241720
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2012, DB, O, 2012072418, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982012
AL, 98, 2012072406, , BEST, 0, 350N, 560W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2012072412, , BEST, 0, 355N, 555W, 35, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2012072418, , BEST, 0, 360N, 550W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 30, 40, 40, 1013, 100, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


at least they numbered it right.
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Quoting Patrap:
The NHC wont tag anything just off the African coast until they see it persist a few days.

The NAVY NRL declares invests, not the NHC.


True but this one is very impressive. So we could have 99L over the next 24 hours. Either way this wave is going to make into the SE Bahamas by this time next week so for sure this is one to watch.

Not a good steering pattern based on the 12Z GFS. If this developes it moves into the SE US.

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Quoting StormTracker2K:


If have Cape Verde storms forming now then the month of August could be down right ugly for some along the US coastline.


Take it easy.
There is no Tropical Storm there, yet.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.