Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

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Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Taking longer than usual.
Looks like it may dissapate.
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Quoting MahFL:


Vicente's impact in HK was only a TS not a major cyclone, so the less damage was to be expected. The Stock Market there though closed for a short while.


TS only was not the info that I got from HK but whatever
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012


A 1012 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ABOUT 90 NM OFF THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N17W. A WAVE AXIS WILL BE ADDED TO THIS
FEATURE AS MODEL AND SATELLITE DATA BECOME MORE CONCLUSIVE.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER
THE AREA FROM 6N-16N BETWEEN THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AND 28W.
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it out
40% on 98L nothing on E atl AOI
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Well they may have to in future seasons....


The only thing they could do is take into account SST anomalies and wind shear. I'm not sure what else they could do.
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Nothing too surprising.
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40% on 98L, no mention of EATL wave.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Some people are probably hitting their heads on the computer screen.Lol.

How did you know? :)
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40%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS IT
GRADUALLY LOSES FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS
AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32565
Some people are probably hitting their heads on the computer screen.Lol.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Taking longer than usual.
Maybe they're working off some old rust ;)
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8044
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Thank you...

It usually doesn't take this long for a rather anemic looking system.


Usually 1:45pm
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Thank you...

It usually doesn't take this long for a rather anemic looking system.
They are probably tied up more on the wording than assigning probabilities.
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Quoting jeffs713:

Because its not 2pm EDT yet.

they usually issue it before 2pm
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The NHC must be looking for more crayons.

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Quoting jeffs713:

Because its not 2pm EDT yet.


Thank you...

It usually doesn't take this long for sub-tropical system heading OTS.
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Taking longer than usual.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32565
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
TWO seems to be taking a long time.

prob trying to put a circle on E atl
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Quoting MississippiWx:


The main reason that I have a problem with these systems is that they are not factored into seasonal outlooks put out by NOAA, CSU, etc. However, these systems add to the number total and inflate them. At the end of this year, most likely an El Nino year, we could easily be above average in number of storms because of these hybrid frontal developments. Then, people will be calling for a busted forecast by the weather agencies for predicting a below average season. However, reality says that if you subtract 4 storms from the total, it takes it to a below average season numbers-wise. The scientists predict the tropical breeding grounds, not subtropical grounds in hybrid territory.
Well they may have to in future seasons....
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
TWO seems to be taking a long time.

Because its not 2pm EDT yet.
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50% on 98L and 10% for the African wave is my guess.

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Quoting Tribucanes:
First Atlantic major just around the corner? Wonder if the wave coming off Africa will develop quickly allowing it to curve NE out of harms way; or if it'll be very slow to develop and take the southern route and be a problem. Or will it only get an invest and not make it? Should start flying in here again, I'll go back into lurker mode and soak it all up. Love watching the development in the Pacific, but not nearly as much as tracking an Atlantic, Gulf, or Caribbean system. As much as I really hope against land falling systems, when they do happen it's edgy and I get engrossed in the details and possible implications. Always loved to track and learn about the weather and climate but after being engrossed by Katrina I really became a lover of tropical systems. Watched every moment of coverage of the aftermath of Katrina that I could. Coworker of mine here now in Wisconsin (he left after Katrina) was in a large tied down trailer very close to the coast. He gave me vivid details of the landfall, he was in the heart of Katrina's winds. He looked terrified still as he retold his story to me. Thought for sure he was going to die that night and he said he would never return to live by the coast again.
Any fool who stays in a trailer during any type of hurricane deserves to have the begeesus scared out of him. In fact, he is lucky to be alive. I hope he makes use of this second chance.
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i think 90E peak at 90% now it losing its ch
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Come on NHC. Give us the numbers!
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TWO seems to be taking a long time.
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Quoting allancalderini:
come this systems are fun to track now that we have nothing this is the only thing to look aside from the tropical wave near Africa.


The main reason that I have a problem with these systems is that they are not factored into seasonal outlooks put out by NOAA, CSU, etc. However, these systems add to the number total and inflate them. At the end of this year, most likely an El Nino year, we could easily be above average in number of storms because of these hybrid frontal developments. Then, people will be calling for a busted forecast by the weather agencies for predicting a below average season. However, reality says that if you subtract 4 storms from the total, it takes it to a below average season numbers-wise. The scientists predict the tropical breeding grounds, not subtropical grounds in hybrid territory.
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458. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Will the monthly checks cover any damages, because insurance is not going to to do so.

Major Insurer says it won't cover fracking

Mobius007 left an interesting comment at the bottom of the article -

"Hydraulic Fracturing

"Unlike in conventional gas reserves, the gas in the Marcellus is trapped and dispersed throughout the shale in tiny pores, and must be released in a process called hydraulic fracturing, or fracking. In each fracking, 2-9 million gallons of water mixed with sand and chemicals are forced through the well into the formation at high pressure to fracture, or crack, the shale. Roughly half the fracking fluid remains in the ground. The rest of it (1,000,000 to 4,000,000 gallons) comes up out of the well and is considered industrial waste and must be disposed of. Each well may be fracked up to ten times during its productive life. (2)

Water Usage
Fracking requires large quantities of fresh water. Fracking the Marcellus will require many billions of gallons of water over the next 15 years. This water can be withdrawn from lakes, rivers, streams, wetlands, ponds, and wells. Because the water becomes contaminated, it may never be returned to the watershed."

Hmm, what could go wrong???"

Drilling 101


Yes, foreign companies will come in and buy our mineral rights and then we get to pay the bills later.


This has hit home amongst my Southern MS kin. Everyone has bits of the old farm & the mineral rights, some have bought up more. Even great-granddaddy said the only real worth that land will ever have is the mineral rights. Generations later it's still in the middle of nowhere & not worth much an acre..really about hardly nothing in this real estate market. Add the pressures of the ailing stock market, screws of Big Ag (it's chicken county) & the weather extremes they've been dealing with...everyone is salivating to get the frackers on their land. We've been told too even if you don't do it to your piece the well will be shot anyways from the neighbors doing it.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 197 Comments: 38787
Hi, folks over there. I'm glad nobody died from Vicente last night ...

Here is my special, very detailed analysis for you in respect to our little mediterranean system, lol.



Sat Source

A new coc developed in the Adriatic sea, which is quite warm. Lot of rain to the North of the system.

Animation

Sea surface temperature Mediterranean sea


If nothing very decent will happen, this is going to be my last post on this. I see you absorbed in the upcoming wavetrain from Africa ... Suspense!
Good luck, as well as with the derecho.
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Also, connecting yesterday's reports which ends at 7 am and today's reports, this storm have traveled over 240 miles.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8044
Quoting MississippiWx:


True, but I think you and I both know this is going to become a tropical storm, not sub. However, this is not of "tropical" origins, therefore how could it be tropical? It is forming in the subtropical Atlantic. I think washingtonian made a good point a few posts up.

Because it feeds off warm waters that are found in the deep tropics and well as farther north, as wash stated.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32565
90E down to 60%.
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Quoting Grothar:
I wouldn't expect to see anything at 2 on the African wave just yet.

Agree Gro.The NHC might surprise us.Persistence is key.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 24 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
MPH.




90E down too 60%
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As I stated earlier, now thinking that my ancient house and ancient wiring had everything to do with the new bulbs burning out. And the fire starting at the base of the bulb. What I didn't re-wire was done by non-professionals too about thirty years earlier. Clears that up for me.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
I guess it is F5ing time
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 24 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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I wouldn't expect to see anything at 2 on the African wave just yet.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26958
To be classified as derecho, storm must travel *at least* 240 miles and to have widespread winds/hail damage reports. This storm have both.

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8044
Ernesto by 11pm tonight is my guess. Bold but I'm sticking with it!

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98L Floater
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow. I got one in my bedside lamp that I been using since... 07? 08? I put it in when I bought this new lamp... haven't changed it since. I dunno if brand or frequency of use makes any difference. I have been replacing the older bulbs as they go bad, and have only had to replace one of the new bulbs... maybe 2x so far...

Amazing difference in performance.



I havent bought a light bulb in years since I started using the new ones. I honestly cant remember but it must be 4-5 years since I spent money on a light bulb. I like the quality of light, they dont burn hot enough to ever possibly create any type of fire and I've noticed an impact on my finances - small, but then again every dollar counts.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:
FYI... for those discussing and inquiring about the compact fluorescent light bulb issues, the following information and perspective might be helpful.

It appears that a mechanism by which CFLs can lead to a fire have to do with the end of the CFL bulb's life cycle. This is in contrast to incandescent, which have some fire danger during their typical life cycle due to substantially larger amounts of waste heat. When the gas or coils in the CFL no longer function, the electrical parts still do, and it is hypothesized that the electrical charge left in the bulb could be a mechanism for overheating, bulb damage, and possible fire. This is the only mechanism for fire danger that I could find. I could find a few news articles indicating some CFLs made before 2009 were recalled due to potentially faulty bulb bases.

In context: As of Dec 2011, the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission had 34 reports of CFLs that emitted smoke or a burning odor; 4 reports of the CFLs catching fire. Statistics for CFL sales in 2009 indicate over 270,000,000 bulbs were purchased.

More research: Consumer Reports addressed the CFL burnout issue last year. They write: %u201CIn our labs, we%u2019ve tested 77 models of compact fluorescent lightbulbs over the last five years, for a combined 2,680,000 hours of light%u201D and then %u201CWe%u2019ve never seen a bulb create smoke or overheat enough at the end of its life to cause any noticeable physical damage to itself.%u201D

Follow-up: Standards were revised for CFLs sold in North America in 2009 by that pesky anti-free-market government that required some changes to the materials used in the base of the bulbs, in an attempt to further reduce the already-near-non-existent threat of fire.

Personal experience with CFLs: I've used CFLs for years. I've yet to have a CFL burb out, nor have I noticed any damage to CFL bases. This discussion on the forum post was the first time I've ever heard about any damage or overheating of CFL bulbs, from anyone.

For more information and sourcing, search research done by consumer reports, and do a google news search for something like "CFL fire," taking particular care to discriminate sources wisely, avoiding politically-motivated think tank sites. In doing so, the answer seems to become much more clear and apparent - CFL bulbs are by far a better option. Just like the "omg electric cars catch fire!" claims we've heard before, this is a strawman/red herring argument. Gasoline powered-cars had risk of fire and explosion. Incandescent bulbs could cause fires. CFLs are probably safer - when comparing data correctly.


I've had one CFL bulb show signs of electrical malfunction on the base. It was an old bulb bought around 2005-2006 from my old apartment, and was a *very* cheap off-brand. This is out of the 40-ish CFL bulbs spread around my house. And I've had two incandescent bulbs show signs of malfunction during my time in my house... one of which could have caused a major fire (it blew the fuse it was attached to, and actually smoked). And those two failures are out of the 3-4 incandescent bulbs in my house.

I vastly prefer CFL bulbs (especially the newer ones, and the ones that mimic natural light). They are safer, need less replacement, and the energy savings make them pay for themselves. LEDs are even cheaper, but the technology and cost is not quite there for general household use.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It means we have characteristics of one. That's why they have subtropical classifications...for storms that contain both characteristics.


True, but I think you and I both know this is going to become a tropical storm, not sub. However, this is not of "tropical" origins, therefore how could it be tropical? It is forming in the subtropical Atlantic. I think washingtonian made a good point a few posts up.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Not sure if there is a correlation between these frontal developments and climate change or what, but this is getting ridiculous. To me, there needs to be a separate category for these cold-core transitions as they are not truly tropical in nature. The conditions in the true tropical breeding grounds have been very hostile this year, but we could very easily be at storm #5 already. If this becomes Ernesto, 4 of 5 storms will have been from non-tropical origins.

come this systems are fun to track now that we have nothing this is the only thing to look aside from the tropical wave near Africa.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
If this were to be declared an Ernesto that would be the 5th time this year.All the storms so far would have skipped T.D status.
Usually with these frontal systems and homebrew storms they just skip it and go to T.S. status, while the systems that develop farther out in the Atlantic they start with T.D. At least that is how I have seen it called these last few years.
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Quoting Patrap:


Wrong,, the potential increases as we get into the deeper part of the CV season.


A TD?

Ok..you can go with dat.

But well, itsa WAVE for now aint it?

yes I agree the potential does go up as we go further

now I am saying that it could be by many things like how it looks and I am not saying it is

and it is not a wave it a low
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Quoting washingtonian115:
If this were to be declared an invest that would be the 5th time this year.All the storms so far would have skipped T.D status.
yeah and if it develop the Gfs would had been right when it was showing a storm developing near this area.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
One could argue that before the satellite area these storms were not picked up.Even 10 years ago this system would have gone undetected.Then again waters have been warmer further north.And that could be in part to the very warm winter we had.


You may be right about those warm water temps. If this is part of climate change, then it could become the norm. SST anomalies would back your claim...

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Quoting MississippiWx:


Sure. You and I have characteristics of an ape. Does that make us one? I don't think so...
BWAHAHAHA...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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