Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

Share this Blog
40
+

Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 534 - 484

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33Blog Index

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11173


Most recent reports from that squall line. I'm not prepared to call it a derecho yet.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 95 Comments: 9808
If the NHC is going to name 98L, they might as well go ahead and do it. It's fairly obvious that it has a closed circulation, with convection that has persisted. The percentage is way too low. Hard to tell, but it appears to be its own entity at this point.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
531. CJ5
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes.


No, :facepalm:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nas a/2012/24jul_greenland/

My only question is, how can they call the Greenland ice sheet melt unprecedented when it happened 150 years ago?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
I gave up on that gulf system a long time ago...


i never was up with it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I gave up on that gulf system a long time ago...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
527. CJ5
Quoting Patrap:


er, dat aint da trend at'all.


You should read a tad more befo' spouting off nonsense


Extinction Today


Based on analysis of the fossil record, researchers estimate...SNIP


You posted nonsense. Extinction is always a possibility, GW or not.

As the planet warms people will adapt or die an equilibrium will be re-established and the planet will have new changes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Waltanater:
It would be cool if they can actually develop and use technology that would give a more exact percentage chance of development instead of just by 10's. Ex: 54% chance of development. Maybe some time in the near future they can use something like that.


This disturbance has a 99% chance of developing.

Then it doesn't. :)
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 95 Comments: 9808
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Preferably you would charge the batteries from solar cells on parking garages, parking lots and home garages. While these charging stations are not common now, all new construction should be able to incorporate the solar cells cheaper than a retrofit. Even the money spent on a retrofit could be recovered in a few years. The higher the cost of gasoline, the quicker your return on investment. Once the system is paid for your only cost will be for maintenance and the energy is free. You can even sell back any energy you do not use to the power company. Once they extend the range some of the all electric cars then I will be going to an all electric car.


In the US (probably elsewhere as well) the wind tends to blow harder at night. Demand is down at night. Most people park their cars at home at night.

Plug in at night when you're asleep. Charge using cheap wind-generated electricity.

Some people will likely charge at work/school if they don't have a place to plug in at night. They can use solar power.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This could put a monkey wrench into our drier forecast that the NWS said were supposed to have later this week.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Difference a day makes. Anything starts to get going in Gulf and NHC may really throw their hands up in frustration.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Btw, this is a borderline between squall line and derecho. A small derecho at the most. Nothing like June 29th storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:
This is interesting too.






Ahhh, our old friend. Still the same swirl?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

1972's Hurricane Betty:

I'm not saying that all frontal system would have went undetected.Just most of them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


It really doesn't. CAPE is one aspect of severe weather. There are at least 5 different parameters that you NEED in order to have a Derecho or be able to sustain one.

Shear is not too great and the unstable airmass will only be able to sustain convection instead of intensifying it.

There have been cases in the past few years where 9000j/kg^2 of CAPE was present and absolutley nothing happens.
Guess so... I'm a rookie at this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:


This has hit home amongst my Southern MS kin. Everyone has bits of the old farm & the mineral rights, some have bought up more. Even great-granddaddy said the only real worth that land will ever have is the mineral rights. Generations later it's still in the middle of nowhere & not worth much an acre..really about hardly nothing in this real estate market. Add the pressures of the ailing stock market, screws of Big Ag (it's chicken county) & the weather extremes they've been dealing with...everyone is salivating to get the frackers on their land. We've been told too even if you don't do it to your piece the well will be shot anyways from the neighbors doing it.


Sad
When the fresh water ant their or it gets contaimenated to the extream that it becomes useless all the money in the world wont help buy a drink to me fresh water is the most important resource we have cause with out it well you know the out come
As the super brains and all the high tech gadgets improve hopfully they can come up with a better way then waste our fresh water in extange for the dollor bill (jmo)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Think about all the frontal systems we had this year.I think 2 out of the four would have only been detected.Chris would have gone undetected and would this small creature due to it's small size.

1972's Hurricane Betty:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Frontal storms out in the open Atlantic were detected even several decades ago.
Think about all the frontal systems we had this year.I think 2 out of the four would have only been detected.Chris would have gone undetected and would this small creature due to it's small size.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is interesting too.




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
..yes they really got caught offguard


I think everyone did!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just asked @wxbrad. He is STRESSING that the whole North Carolina is under derecho threat. First wave in Charlotte/Raleigh is 4-5 pm, second wave 10 pm-12 am. It's going to be a long day for me...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am hoping 98L develops into Ernesto today is the day it need for becoming something.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
511. yoboi
Quoting RTSplayer:


No, it is not.

The fact is the extreme north pole is in total darkness for a far longer portion of the year than is the land mass of Greenland, which makes all the difference.


If I was wrong, then why are not the SST anomalies directly in the pole as high as that around Alaska and Greenland?

Approximately 80% of the net warming is actually not from the Greenhouse effect itself, but rather from second order positive albedo feedback, which is effected by latitude according to the same scale as the cosine of the angle of difference of the Sun light from the Normal.

Calculate the difference for that for the Pole vs 75n for the Summer, or for the pole vs 60N for the winter, and you will see an enormous difference.

Because of all this, the rate of melting directly at the pole hits a natural limit far earlier than that of ice 15 or 30 degrees away from the pole.

The rate of melting of sea ice should level off ni a few years, but the rate of melting of land ice will continue accelerated exponentially until it matches pass with a certain hyperbolic curve and approaches the same asymtote, however, the asymtote moves upward every year due to CO2 being added to the atmosphere.

Take Equinox, when the Sun is normal to the Equator.

Cosine of 60 = 0.5 (as comparing solar constant at 60N to the equator due to angle of incidence.)

Cosine 75 = 0.2588

Cosine 80 = 0.1736

Cosine 90 = 0 (though atmospheric lensing and twilight is a bit more than this).


Summer Solstice (using 22.5 degrees as the offset).

Cosine (60 - 22.5) = 0.7933

Cosine (80 - 22.5) = 0.5372


Winter Slistice (using +22.5 degrees as the offset).

Cosine (60 + 22.5) = 0.0262

cosine (80 + 22.5) = - 0.2164 (which is tilted totally away from the sun).



Of course, when you do this day by day, you will see obviously that the Greenland, Alaska, and Canadian land masses receive far more positive feedback due to snow pack melts and permanent glacier melts than the interior of arctic, which of course the SST anomaly maps all plainly show as well.




Note the abrupt cutoff near 80N, where in some locations the water is even below normal again, whereas between 60N and 80N it is very much above normal, almost everywhere, with some reasonable allowance for cloud cover or turbulence.


At any rate, the worst heating is occurring between 60N and 80N, which is exactly where you'd expect it to be if the primary driver of the warming is the second order albedo feedback.


The CO2 itself is relatively slow in producing warming, and the keeling curve is growing along a curve approximating the population growth curve, though lagging behind by about 15 to 20 years.

The albedo feedback on the other hand, can double every 5 to 10 years for regions with 1m thick average ice cover, and it grows exponentially until all ice is exhausted, although limited by the curvature of the Earth's surface as discussed at length above. This can be proven geometrically with a few minutes worth of consideration.



did ya factor in all the ships, planes and tractors that are there on a daily business......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Uh-oh... @wxbrad just posted the picture on facebook and it's showing that CAPE is OFF OF SCALE in North Carolina. This means this derecho will becomes a monster once it enters North Carolina.



Caption from @wxbrad: WOW!! Mid-Day CAPE values insane 5000j/kg


It really doesn't. CAPE is one aspect of severe weather. There are at least 5 different parameters that you NEED in order to have a Derecho or be able to sustain one.

Shear is not too great and the unstable airmass will only be able to sustain convection instead of intensifying it.

There have been cases in the past few years where 9000j/kg^2 of CAPE was present and absolutley nothing happens.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I was referring to..

"True, but I think you and I both know this is going to become a tropical storm, not sub."

Lol.


Ah. Well, see there, I told ya!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From 2 PM discussion of CV wave.


A 1012 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ABOUT 90 NM OFF THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N17W. A WAVE AXIS WILL BE ADDED TO THIS
FEATURE AS MODEL AND SATELLITE DATA BECOME MORE CONCLUSIVE.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER
THE AREA FROM 6N-16N BETWEEN THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AND 28W.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes.

Frontal storms out in the open Atlantic were detected even several decades ago.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Code orange: 40%
Still no mention of Tropical Wave.

If everything works out:
98L would become Ernesto
Wave of Interst #1 would become Florence
and Wave of Interst #2 would become Gordon

It probably wont workout flawlessly, but I can see the atlantic getting Ernesto and Florence out of the Three areas.

I think you are on the dot with that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


I hope you know that with you bolding it, my opinion remains unchanged. Lol.

I was referring to..

"True, but I think you and I both know this is going to become a tropical storm, not sub."

Lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok I say 60% or 70% for 98L at 8pm as well as 20% and numbering 99L in Eatl at 8pm
It would be cool if they can actually develop and use technology that would give a more exact percentage chance of development instead of just by 10's. Ex: 54% chance of development. Maybe some time in the near future they can use something like that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Was not a regular trailer as you would usually picture. Saw the picture of it. It was as long as a regular trailer but at least twice to three times as wide. Was made out of metal for it's outside and tied down very well with metal wiring and deep stakes on four sides. He agrees, it was very stupid to stay in it.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Really?
Yes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Really?

No.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
1. A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS IT
GRADUALLY LOSES FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS
AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.


I hope you know that with you bolding it, my opinion remains unchanged. Lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
One could argue that before the satellite area these storms were not picked up.Even 10 years ago this system would have gone undetected.Then again waters have been warmer further north.And that could be in part to the very warm winter we had.


Really?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
496. CJ5
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Sounds like an excuse I've heard from a addict.


No excuse, fact.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Uh-oh... @wxbrad just posted the picture on facebook and it's showing that CAPE is OFF OF SCALE in North Carolina. This means this derecho will becomes a monster once it enters North Carolina.



Caption from @wxbrad: WOW!! Mid-Day CAPE values insane 5000j/kg
They are all going to die!.J/K.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Articuno:
ilovehurricanes13 and Gro nailed it.
40% and no attention on the AOI
well not that there wasn't any mention of the AOI just not deserving of any percentages, it does have a low with it though, so now persistence is the key.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ok I say 60% or 70% for 98L at 8pm as well as 20% and numbering 99L in Eatl at 8pm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1. A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS IT
GRADUALLY LOSES FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS
AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Articuno:

How did you know? :)
They will definitely see "red" after that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Code orange: 40%
Still no mention of Tropical Wave.

If everything works out:
98L would become Ernesto
Wave of Interst #1 would become Florence
and Wave of Interst #2 would become Gordon

It probably wont workout flawlessly, but I can see the atlantic getting Ernesto and Florence out of the Three areas.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Maybe they're working off some old rust ;)
Extra long cafe-con-leche break!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
487. Skyepony (Mod)
Oceansat looks sickly or something..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ilovehurricanes13 and Gro nailed it.
40% and no attention on the AOI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Uh-oh... @wxbrad just posted the picture on facebook and it's showing that CAPE is OFF OF SCALE in North Carolina. This means this derecho will becomes a monster once it enters North Carolina.



Caption from @wxbrad: WOW!! Mid-Day CAPE values insane 5000j/kg
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Taking longer than usual.
Looks like it may dissapate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 534 - 484

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
76 °F
Scattered Clouds