Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

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Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting jeffs713:

I would LOVE to install solar, and my roof has a HUGE southern face, so it would be ideal for panels. I also have an excellent place to store the batteries needed (attic space above the garage, which is also where the breaker box is located). My house is getting a smart meter installed in the next month or two, so excess energy can go back towards the grid.

The catch is that the huge southern face is also at the front of my house, and the HOA (home owners association - also known as the subdivision gestapo) said no to installing panels. Said they would be an "eyesore" and "incompatible with the neighborhood's architecture".

Well, that and the fact that my wife and I don't have the $10-20k to drop on panels, since the state of Texas barely funded the program to assist with solar panels.


How about mounting a rack along your back yard fence? Over the pool pergola?

Prices are rapidly dropping. A 3k system might cost about $13k, based on US avg costs. After the 30% fed subsidy you're down to $9k. Or there are leasing programs.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


You fail to realize the magnitude of these changes over time scales of a few generations.

We are talking about a global extinction event of the scale possibly not seen since the Dinosaurs.


Food crops don't grow if the pollenating insects go extinct, though some of that may be offset through manual pollenation using robots or some such, but then again such mitigation requires even more energy use to perform.
..actually on the science front today, they said this extended heatwave is Great for the insects and they are multiplying rapidly, and the extreme heat is destroying the bacteria that kills insects
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Doesn't matter... It easily has TS strength so it's entirely possible it could be forming an eye... The only question is whether or not it's frontal.


This will go straight to Ernesto this evening an I even wouldn't rule out a minimal hurricane out of this before he enters cooler waters.
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Quoting CJ5:


You posted nonsense. Extinction is always a possibility, GW or not.

As the planet warms people will adapt or die an equilibrium will be re-established and the planet will have new changes.


You fail to realize the magnitude of these changes over time scales of a few generations.

We are talking about a global extinction event of the scale possibly not seen since the Dinosaurs.


Food crops don't grow if the pollenating insects go extinct, though some of that may be offset through manual pollenation using robots or some such, but then again such mitigation requires even more energy use to perform.
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
240 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

VAC003-079-113-137-139-165-540-241915-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0226.000000T0000Z-120724T1915Z/
ORANGE VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE VA-GREENE VA-
ALBEMARLE VA-MADISON VA-PAGE VA-
240 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT
FOR THE CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE...AND PAGE...MADISON...ALBEMARLE...
GREENE...ROCKINGHAM AND ORANGE COUNTIES...

AT 236 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED 5 MILES SOUTH OF
SHENANDOAH...OR 27 MILES NORTH OF SCOTT STADIUM...AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SWIFT RUN...
HANEYTOWN...
LYDIA...
MCMULLEN...
FLETCHER...
STANARDSVILLE...
AMICUS...
HOOD...
QUINQUE...
BURTONVILLE...
SHELBY...
NEWTOWN...
RUCKERSVILLE...
DAWSONVILLE...
ROCHELLE...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.
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Quoting Patrap:
I've had the new Bulbs for 4 years now, and only have replaced 2.

And they took out my old bulbs and replaced all of them for free.

I save about 10-13% on Avg since then with them

www.greenlightneworleans.org



I've been using nothing but CFLs for more than 15 years. (I'm off the grid and the extra they cost back then was well worth it.)

I've never had a CFL burn out. My oldest is slow to start up and dimmer than when I got it, but it still works.

BTW, incandescents drop in lumens faster than CFLS.

Most CFL failure seems to be when they are placed in a heat trapping lamp such as a ceiling can. That, and perhaps some poor quality brands.

LEDs will be the real solution. Prices are coming down quickly. When (if ever) my CFLs burn out I'll replace them with LEDs. Problem is, I've got a bunch of CFLs that I got for fifty cents each stored away....
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The GW activists have answers for everything.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm currently subsidizing the gov't with my light bill, and there are no solar conversion subsidies in place for me here. Solar thus is a win-win for me.

Pple really need to look at this on the basis of how they individually can make solar work for them. And the bottom line is, can u afford the conversion in the first place. The second line is, can you afford not to?

I would LOVE to install solar, and my roof has a HUGE southern face, so it would be ideal for panels. I also have an excellent place to store the batteries needed (attic space above the garage, which is also where the breaker box is located). My house is getting a smart meter installed in the next month or two, so excess energy can go back towards the grid.

The catch is that the huge southern face is also at the front of my house, and the HOA (home owners association - also known as the subdivision gestapo) said no to installing panels. Said they would be an "eyesore" and "incompatible with the neighborhood's architecture".

Well, that and the fact that my wife and I don't have the $10-20k to drop on panels, since the state of Texas barely funded the program to assist with solar panels.

When my wife and I build our next house (in 10 years or so), I fully plan on building solar in as part of the design of the house. It just makes too much sense in an area such as Houston to have solar. Why pay $100-200 a month for electricity (mostly for AC) when you can get a large portion of your electricity for free when you need it most (summertime), and pay for your heating needs (natural gas) by selling surplus electricity back to the grid?
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Quoting jeffs713:

Um... its not even named yet.

Doesn't matter... It easily has TS strength so it's entirely possible it could be forming an eye... The only question is whether or not it's frontal.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Couple of strong storms popped up ahead of first squall line. One of them is going toward me.



Those are some dangerous storm firing on the Lee side of the Mountians.

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574. yoboi
Quoting jeffs713:


I wonder what the methane content of reindeer gas is. Anyone have some unverifiable, vague data they can provide that shows reindeer gas is a more potent greenhouse gas than say, horses or water buffalo?

As for the second part... An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.


did the reindeer graze fields in china or the usa before there trip back to the north pole???
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Couple of strong storms popped up ahead of first squall line. One of them is going toward me.

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572. yoboi
Quoting RTSplayer:


The amount of heat waste produced by man made machines is insignificant next to the total net annual forcing on the Earth.

In 2008 humanity used 474×10^18 J worth of energy. (See Kardashev Scale in Wikipedai).

If all of this was converted to heat waste and dumped directly into Ice it would melt 1400 cubic kilometers of 0c ice to 0c water, in theory, however in reality most of this is immediately re-radiated back into space.

Besides, the world wide net melting of ice is far more than 1400 cubic kilometers per year, by the time you count all other sources besides Greenland and sea ice: Canada, Alaska, Iceland, Scandinavia, the Himalayas, the Andes, nor certainly Antarctic glaciers and ice sheets, additionally most of this ice's natural temperature is far below 0C. Consider also that some land-ice melt is sequestered sinkholes, caves, and lakes below the actual glaciers.

I've done this math before, friend, and human heat waste directly contributes at most a few percent of the total net annual global ice melt. Not counting net annual warming of the liquid water and the atmosphere itself. It's really not even worth mentioning compared to the CO2 and the albedo stuff, except for the fact that much of our energy comes from CO2 producing fuels.


when you are doing your math do ya figure in the surface temp with the fallout of immediate dark carbon fiber that is now a dark surface translates more heat faster melt.....i would like to see the ship manifest for the yrs that you used to calculate or is this just a theory your using???
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Quoting jeffs713:

Um... its not even named yet.


It will be very soon. Expect Ernesto at 11pm if not sooner.

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12Z Euro strong Tropical wave moving WNW toward the Northern Antillies.

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Looks like an eyewall trying to form:



Um... its not even named yet.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Looks like an eyewall trying to form:


Looks like we'll have Ernesto by tonight. Maybe even as early as 5pm.
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I'm under Severe Thunderstorm Watch now.

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Quoting Astrometeor:
Thanks Civicane for the pic. Who thinks this will become Ernesto?
This will become a tropical storm IMO.Sorta looks like Chris did in the beginning stage.Would be something if this became a hurricane.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Yeah, and Santa's workshop, too. Don't forget that. All those elves and reindeer are the true driving force behind the observed changes in the Arctic. Claus must be stopped!!! :-\Gee. Wouldn't it just be smarter to maybe consider ways to stop doing the thing that's going to force those adaptations or deaths, rather than foolishly continue on hoping that we'll be able to save our future selves from what our current selves have done?


I wonder what the methane content of reindeer gas is. Anyone have some unverifiable, vague data they can provide that shows reindeer gas is a more potent greenhouse gas than say, horses or water buffalo?

As for the second part... An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I only saying this in terms of what occured last night when every minute or two,a new model graphic was posted of wave developing.
That was a dangerous looking track: a brush with the northern Leewards, US Virgin Islands, and PR.
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On the way to tieing the '34 record, StL @ 102 and rising. 10 days 105 or above. Should break it tomorrow. (tie it w/ July days alone tomorrow as well) Cue the Jackyl (When Will It Rain) & the CCR (Have You Ever Seen the Rain). A little wishcasting for the Midwest - one of these Verde wave's tracks into Gulf, big but sheared, gets tropical right before shore, brings lots of rain for S to mid TX, OK, MO, IL, IN. Can only hope - can't tell we're getting desperate can you!
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Thanks Civicane for the pic. Who thinks this will become Ernesto?
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Looks like an eyewall trying to form:


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Quoting yoboi:



did ya factor in all the ships, planes and tractors that are there on a daily business......


The amount of heat waste produced by man made machines is insignificant next to the total net annual forcing on the Earth.

In 2008 humanity used 474×10^18 J worth of energy. (See Kardashev Scale in Wikipedai).

If all of this was converted to heat waste and dumped directly into Ice it would melt 1400 cubic kilometers of 0c ice to 0c water, in theory, however in reality most of this is immediately re-radiated back into space.

Besides, the world wide net melting of ice is far more than 1400 cubic kilometers per year, by the time you count all other sources besides Greenland and sea ice: Canada, Alaska, Iceland, Scandinavia, the Himalayas, the Andes, nor certainly Antarctic glaciers and ice sheets, additionally most of this ice's natural temperature is far below 0C. Consider also that some land-ice melt is sequestered sinkholes, caves, and lakes below the actual glaciers.

I've done this math before, friend, and human heat waste directly contributes at most a few percent of the total net annual global ice melt. Not counting net annual warming of the liquid water and the atmosphere itself. It's really not even worth mentioning compared to the CO2 and the albedo stuff, except for the fact that much of our energy comes from CO2 producing fuels.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Civicane49:
That their is a cat 5.
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557. yoboi
Quoting BobWallace:


In the US (probably elsewhere as well) the wind tends to blow harder at night. Demand is down at night. Most people park their cars at home at night.

Plug in at night when you're asleep. Charge using cheap wind-generated electricity.

Some people will likely charge at work/school if they don't have a place to plug in at night. They can use solar power.


in the still of the night, nothing was stirring, not even a mouse....wind blows harder during day dude...
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"Stumble upon" wind map...just to ponder.. :)

Wind Map
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Quoting AussieStorm:

There is a down side to to many people with solar panels.
Here in Sydney, power prices are going up even though more and more people are having solar panels installed, why? The Govt. subsidised them so in the end, if my neighbour got solar panels, i would end up paying for it in my power bill, even if it's 1cent.
I forgot to mention. We now have the Carbon tax, which is added to the power bill, then the GST is added, so we are paying a tax on a tax. Don't ya just love a money grabbing Govt..
I'm currently subsidizing the gov't with my light bill, and there are no solar conversion subsidies in place for me here. Solar thus is a win-win for me.

Pple really need to look at this on the basis of how they individually can make solar work for them. And the bottom line is, can u afford the conversion in the first place. The second line is, can you afford not to?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22081
Ya, he wasn't any soft cookie either. Retired from the Army and a good ol' boy. Scared him so much he moved immediately and will never live near the coast again. Thought moving to Wisconsin seemed a little extreme, but if he really want away from bad canes; mission accomplished.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol.

CJ5 most would have went undetected.So face palm on that.


I only saying this in terms of what occured last night when every minute or two a new model graphic was posted of wave developing.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting BobWallace:


In the US (probably elsewhere as well) the wind tends to blow harder at night. Demand is down at night. Most people park their cars at home at night.

Plug in at night when you're asleep. Charge using cheap wind-generated electricity.

Some people will likely charge at work/school if they don't have a place to plug in at night. They can use solar power.


Sorry to butt into this conversation, but I'm not sure where you live. However, every place I've been to in the US usually has the wind blow harder during the day. It makes sense because of the heat's effect on the pressure gradient. The wind hardly ever blows at night where I live unless we have a storm.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10244
Reminds me of 92L

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Squall line over WV. It's moving too slow for it to be called derecho, IMO.


The mountains appear to be ripping it apart. The classic bow echo shape is disappearing.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Was not a regular trailer as you would usually picture. Saw the picture of it. It was as long as a regular trailer but at least twice to three times as wide. Was made out of metal for it's outside and tied down very well with metal wiring and deep stakes on four sides. He agrees, it was very stupid to stay in it.
I don't care how big it is, if it is made like all other trailers, there is no protection from flying objects. My trailer has been in place, tied down, since 1989. But when I did some repairs to the walls, the entire outer skin had many holes and tears in it. Only Wilma broke some windows. It is the flying objects you want to avoid in a trailer.
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Oh well. At least 98L is something to watch. It's kind of like that fake wrestling mess. You know it's fake and stupid, but you enjoy watching someone appear to be body slammed or knocked out with a chair. It's slightly entertaining until the real stuff happens.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10244
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I dont see model graphics being posted so I assume all the models turned away from development of wave.
Lol.

CJ5 most would have went undetected.So face palm on that.
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545. yoboi
Quoting Neapolitan:
Yeah, and Santa's workshop, too. Don't forget that. All those elves and reindeer are the true driving force behind the observed changes in the Arctic. Claus must be stopped!!! :-\Gee. Wouldn't it just be smarter to maybe consider ways to stop doing the thing that's going to force those adaptations or deaths, rather than foolishly continue on hoping that we'll be able to save our future selves from what our current selves have done?


lol santa that is a good one....
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544. yoboi
Quoting BobWallace:


In the US (probably elsewhere as well) the wind tends to blow harder at night. Demand is down at night. Most people park their cars at home at night.

Plug in at night when you're asleep. Charge using cheap wind-generated electricity.

Some people will likely charge at work/school if they don't have a place to plug in at night. They can use solar power.


the wind usually blows harder during the day.....
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Squall line over WV. It's moving too slow for it to be called derecho, IMO.



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Quoting biff4ugo:
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-n as a/2012/24jul_greenland/

My only question is, how can they call the Greenland ice sheet melt unprecedented when it happened 150 years ago?


It is unprecedented in the last 150 years. However there might have been a brief warm spell 150 years ago to cause a larger then average melting rate. Although there is something to be said to 300 years of the Industrial Age. I'll leave that to the blog and Dr. Masters however.
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I dont see model graphics being posted so I assume all the models turned away from development of wave.
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Quoting yoboi:



did ya factor in all the ships, planes and tractors that are there on a daily business......
Yeah, and Santa's workshop, too. Don't forget that. All those elves and reindeer are the true driving force behind the observed changes in the Arctic. Claus must be stopped!!! :-\
Quoting CJ5:


As the planet warms people will adapt or die an equilibrium will be re-established and the planet will have new changes.
Gee. Wouldn't it just be smarter to maybe consider ways to stop doing the thing that's going to force those adaptations or deaths, rather than foolishly continue on hoping that we'll be able to save our future selves from what our current selves have done?
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


nearly its own entity, but then they might wait a bit.
I say no naming till at least tomorrow


Which makes no sense because they implied in the TWO that it should meet its demise tomorrow when it reaches colder water. A truly tropical cyclone would most likely reach its demise then. However, these hybrid systems seem to keep on chugging. (see Chris this year)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10244
Quoting Astrometeor:


Most recent reports from that squall line. I'm not prepared to call it a derecho yet.
check yesterday's reports (the one in Chicago area) and connect it with today's reports. I am not sure about calling it derecho still, though.
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537. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Sounds like an excuse I've heard from a addict.


we all are addicted to it...
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Quoting MississippiWx:
If the NHC is going to name 98L, they might as well go ahead and do it. It's fairly obvious that it has a closed circulation, with convection that has persisted. The percentage is way too low. Hard to tell, but it appears to be its own entity at this point.



nearly its own entity, but then they might wait a bit.
I say no naming till at least tomorrow
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hey guys don't know if you guys see it but looks like 98L has an eye or is developing one look on rgb loop
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Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11317

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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