Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

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Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
New image here... Dare I say that's a cloud filled eye?



you dare not :)

it might be just clouds wrapping in a circle, not exactly an eye, or it could be an eye, but we'll see

judging by its weakness, im not sold on an eye yet
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Quoting jeffs713:


I wonder what the methane content of reindeer gas is. Anyone have some unverifiable, vague data they can provide that shows reindeer gas is a more potent greenhouse gas than say, horses or water buffalo?


After a simply easy yet meaningless Google search, I found some answers to your silly question:

Worldwide population estimates:
Reindeer 2.5 Million
Cattle 1.5 Billion
Pigs 1.0 Billion
Sheep 1.0 Billion

Reindeer are a mere 0.0713776% of that group of animals.

I'll let you go to Lapland to observe and measure the methane content when Reindeers flatulate. I'm sure it will be a welcome addition to the world's body of knowledge.
Member Since: May 2, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 180
Quoting StormTracker2K:


In 6 to 8 hours we will have Ernesto. You heard it here first.
hope we have it I am crossing my fingers.
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While the tropics are heating up, but before they reach a full boil, I thought I'd post these graphics dealing with Lake Superior. Sort of amazing, really...

Lake Superior

Lake Superior

Lake Superior

Lake Superior

Remember, this is Lake Superior we're talking about. You know, the northernmost of the Great Lakes, the Great White North and all that.

Ouch.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
New image here... Dare I say that's a cloud filled eye?


It is. You can see it on infrared imagery and a microwave pass showed a partial eyewall that has probably been fully constructed since that time.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


What are you talking about?

The data I used are known values from human consumption of energy and the heat of fusion of water-ice.

I even used the worst case scenario (regarding man's heat waste contribution) and it still falls woefully short.

It has nothing to do with any individual ship, not even ice breakers (as I once thought,) because the difference of one such ship isn't enough to matter in significant digits. Although an ice breaker actually is one of the worst individual contributors for obvious reasons, but that's because of the local albedo change it creates, and has little relevance to it's immediate energy consumption or heat waste.

Soot deposition varies by location and year, and is far more complicated than the issues discussed related to geometric laws. Again, not directly related to heat waste, since if we used a different form of energy we'd produce no soot. However soot is worse than no soot, and by quite a large margin in the worst case scenarios, and I assume it would have been worse per capita during the age of the wood and coal driven steam engines, and coal based home heaters and stoves of the 19th century than it is in the modern era, again, that's per capita, not in total.
As my dear hubby always says after I spend 15 minutes texting and correcting my errors, He says "HUH"?
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Quoting greentortuloni:


I suppose windmills are out? I saw a small windmill setup that powered the compressor taken out of a window unit AC. A bit jury rigged but it worked fine. Almost free AC though it relied on the tradewinds, so very location based.

LOL. I'd need a LOT more space than my suburban backyard to put in a windmill. (if I had enough space for a windmill, I'd just use the space for solar panels and shade gardening)
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have any one noted how unstable firefox have be come


if soo swich too chrome it wil work a lot better for you
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
Quoting MississippiWx:


Sorry to butt into this conversation, but I'm not sure where you live. However, every place I've been to in the US usually has the wind blow harder during the day. It makes sense because of the heat's effect on the pressure gradient. The wind hardly ever blows at night where I live unless we have a storm.


How about we use info from a non-climate change source? Balloon fliers work for you?

"A weather forecast for only two-hours, a time period that would include most hot-air balloon flights, might be expected to be reliable and routinely available from either government or private weather services.

Unfortunately this is not the case. Atmospheric conditions at times safest and most popular for hot-air ballooning are also among the most difficult to forecast, especially in the detail required. These are times when the boundary layer is undergoing physical changes from day-to-night or night-to-day. The most important result is the change in wind speed.

Even the most casual observer knows that wind near the ground is generally stronger in the daytime than at night.

This fact is illusrated by the data analyzed for Figure 1. They show the frequency of occurrence of wind speeds less than 10.5 mph (9.1 knots) at different times of day as measured at the Lansing, MI, airport, averaged for five July months, 1949-54.

During the night, from sunset to sunrise, the observed speeds averaged less than 10.5 mph about 90% of the time. After sunrise the frequencies decreased to nearly 50 % by midday, then increased back to about 90 % after sunset.

A few hundred feet above the surface the average diurnal pattern of wind speed is just the opposite of that near the ground. Lower speeds occur during the day and higher speeds during the night.

Figure 2 shows wind speeds, measured on a 1605-foot television tower near Oklahoma City, averaged for a year. The patterns indicate a distinct change from daytime maxima and nighttime minima at the lower levels to the opposite above about 300 feet.

This basic pattern is seen wherever appropriate measurements are made."


Link

(Bolding mine.)
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS IT
GRADUALLY LOSES FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS
AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Quoting yoboi:


when you are doing your math do ya figure in the surface temp with the fallout of immediate dark carbon fiber that is now a dark surface translates more heat faster melt.....i would like to see the ship manifest for the yrs that you used to calculate or is this just a theory your using???


What are you talking about?

The data I used are known values from human consumption of energy and the heat of fusion of water-ice.

I even used the worst case scenario (regarding man's heat waste contribution) and it still falls woefully short.

It has nothing to do with any individual ship, not even ice breakers (as I once thought,) because the difference of one such ship isn't enough to matter in significant digits. Although an ice breaker actually is one of the worst individual contributors for obvious reasons, but that's because of the local albedo change it creates, and has little relevance to it's immediate energy consumption or heat waste.

Soot deposition varies by location and year, and is far more complicated than the issues discussed related to geometric laws. Again, not directly related to heat waste, since if we used a different form of energy we'd produce no soot. However soot is worse than no soot, and by quite a large margin in the worst case scenarios, and I assume it would have been worse per capita during the age of the wood and coal driven steam engines, and coal based home heaters and stoves of the 19th century than it is in the modern era, again, that's per capita, not in total.
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Quoting jeffs713:

No, since the spiral banding doesn't match up to what you think is the "eye". Also, if storms were classified based on cloud structure alone, we would have hurricanes MUCH more often.

It doesn't matter if that's an eye or not, which it very well could be. 98L has sustained winds of tropical storm force... As long as its not frontal, then it's a tropical storm.
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Deleted
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
New image here... Dare I say that's a cloud filled eye?


Notice the new band to the north of the "eye". This thing is strengthening.
Anyways, I have to leave. I'll check back in the evening.
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Quoting jeffs713:

Can't do the back fence, since we have established trees along the back fence as a visual barrier, and they cast shade along a large part of the fence - the areas not shaded will have shade within the next 2-3 years from other trees growing. We don't have a pergola (yet), as it would be prohibitively expensive to build into the back of the house to satisfy building codes and the HOA (we're on a corner lot, which is also why we have all the trees).


I suppose windmills are out? I saw a small windmill setup that powered the compressor taken out of a window unit AC. A bit jury rigged but it worked fine. Almost free AC though it relied on the tradewinds, so very location based.
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Quoting jeffs713:

Ok, that one amused me. Good job with the creativity.
Is that for real?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
New image here... Dare I say that's a cloud filled eye?


No, since the spiral banding doesn't match up to what you think is the "eye". Also, if storms were classified based on cloud structure alone, we would have hurricanes MUCH more often.
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Quoting LargoFl:
..one to watch for


With SST's across the Gulf near 90 in some places could spell trouble if the conditions are right at the time.

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Quoting washingtonian115:
I confident Ernesto will form from in about the next few hours or so.I was referring to the African wave :).
Oh boy Florence? Watch out for the ladies :~P
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98L:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting StormTracker2K:
We could be measuring the rain in FEET across N FL & S GA if the Euro does indeed pull off a mischief in the NE Gulf and swings it NE toward N & S Carolina.

..one to watch for
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
New image here... Dare I say that's a cloud filled eye?

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Wind reports not coming in particularly fast with this line pushing into NC soon. Not producing widespread damage, but wondering if the late afternoon will strengthen this line quite a bit.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Uh--what? Colony Collapse Disorder is due to one or more of a variety of factors--pesticide use, GMOs, a virus, a runaway predator. But one thing that is most definitely not causing the bees to die is "flying into windmills and dying".

Here's a polite suggestion: turn off Fox and read a science book. It'll do you a lot of good...

Science is bad! Faux news told us that if we listen to what science says, they will take away all of our rights and guns, since scientists are all in a global conspiracy to gain more grant funding!
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


This will go straight to Ernesto this evening an I even wouldn't rule out a minimal hurricane out of this before he enters cooler waters.

Again, 98L is Chris Part 2. Ernesto will more than likely come out of this.
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Quoting yoboi:


there is a shortage of bees....and the reason the bees are in decline is due to flying into windmills and dying...so pollenating food will be down...trying to go green can cause damage with other things...
Uh--what? Colony Collapse Disorder is due to one or more of a variety of factors--pesticide use, GMOs, a virus, a runaway predator. But one thing that is most definitely not causing the bees to go away is "flying into windmills and dying".

Here's a polite suggestion: turn off Fox and read a science book. It'll do you a lot of good...
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We could be measuring the rain in FEET across N FL & S GA if the Euro does indeed pull off a mischief in the NE Gulf and swings it NE toward N & S Carolina.

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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Maybe something in the NE Gulf in 9 days per 12Z Euro. This seems to be FL's year for rain & storms.

The pattern is the complete opposite this year from last year where FL. was dry and this year is wet.
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Quoting yoboi:


there is a shortage of bees....and the reason the bees are in decline is due to flying into windmills and dying...so pollenating food will be down...trying to go green can cause damage with other things...

Ok, that one amused me. Good job with the creativity.
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That's a heavy rainfall in this one. 2.4 inches according to WU radar.

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Quoting StormTracker2K:


In 6 to 8 hours we will have Ernesto. You heard it here first.
I confident Ernesto will form from in about the next few hours or so.I was referring to the African wave :).
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Oh My! Look at northern FL.

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Quoting BobWallace:


How about mounting a rack along your back yard fence? Over the pool pergola?

Prices are rapidly dropping. A 3k system might cost about $13k, based on US avg costs. After the 30% fed subsidy you're down to $9k. Or there are leasing programs.

Can't do the back fence, since we have established trees along the back fence as a visual barrier, and they cast shade along a large part of the fence - the areas not shaded will have shade within the next 2-3 years from other trees growing. We don't have a pergola (yet), as it would be prohibitively expensive to build into the back of the house to satisfy building codes and the HOA (we're on a corner lot, which is also why we have all the trees).
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I think it's no longer the small derecho... more like bad thunderstorm with gusty winds, but not on the scale of derecho.

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Teddy do you think something will eventually develop?


In 6 to 8 hours we will have Ernesto. You heard it here first.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Those are some dangerous storm firing on the Lee side of the Mountians.

Yesterday's storm was even nastier. I had to slow down to 20 mph on I-95 from 70 mph because there was so much water on the road and I couldn't see anything. It was a monsoon!
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Trough split developement in NE Gulf on Euro. This will cause some serious FL issues for western FL if the Euro pans out.

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COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
112 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

VIRGINIA PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND AND ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NAUTICAL MILES

ANZ635-250115-
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER FROM URBANNA TO WINDMILL POINT-
112 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

.THIS AFTERNOON...W WINDS 10 KT. WAVES 1 FOOT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING N 10 TO 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WAVES 1 FOOT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE
EVENING.
.WED...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EARLY IN THE MORNING...BECOMING 5 TO
10 KT BY MID MORNING...BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. WAVES 1 FOOT.
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FOOT.
.THU...SW WINDS 10 KT. WAVES 1 FOOT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WAVES 1 FOOT.
.FRI...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. WAVES 1 FOOT.
.SAT...NW WINDS 5 KT...BECOMING SW IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING NW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WAVES 1 FOOT.

WINDS AND WAVES HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
594. yoboi
Quoting BobWallace:


Isn't that fortunate for us all?

Ignorance, who needs that?


they meant ya have answers but might not be right answers...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
12z ECMWF, 12z GFS are both very unremarkable with development of any kind.


Compared with yesterday is a big change. Well,we keep waiting for the real season to start on August 15.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
12z ECMWF, 12z GFS are both very unremarkable with development of any kind.
Teddy do you think something will eventually develop?
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591. yoboi
Quoting RTSplayer:


You fail to realize the magnitude of these changes over time scales of a few generations.

We are talking about a global extinction event of the scale possibly not seen since the Dinosaurs.


Food crops don't grow if the pollenating insects go extinct, though some of that may be offset through manual pollenation using robots or some such, but then again such mitigation requires even more energy use to perform.


there is a shortage of bees....and the reason the bees are in decline is due to flying into windmills and dying...so pollenating food will be down...trying to go green can cause damage with other things...
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98L and tropical wave off Africa.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Maybe something in the NE Gulf in 9 days per 12Z Euro. This seems to be FL's year for rain & storms.

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Quoting jrweatherman:
The GW activists have answers for everything.


Isn't that fortunate for us all?

Ignorance, who needs that?
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12z ECMWF, 12z GFS are both very unremarkable with development of any kind.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
RIP 90E

EP, 90, 2012072418, , BEST, 0, 99N, 1178W, 25, 1009, LO

Winds down 5kts, pressure up 2mb.
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Quoting jeffs713:

I would LOVE to install solar, and my roof has a HUGE southern face, so it would be ideal for panels. I also have an excellent place to store the batteries needed (attic space above the garage, which is also where the breaker box is located). My house is getting a smart meter installed in the next month or two, so excess energy can go back towards the grid.

The catch is that the huge southern face is also at the front of my house, and the HOA (home owners association - also known as the subdivision gestapo) said no to installing panels. Said they would be an "eyesore" and "incompatible with the neighborhood's architecture".

Well, that and the fact that my wife and I don't have the $10-20k to drop on panels, since the state of Texas barely funded the program to assist with solar panels.


How about mounting a rack along your back yard fence? Over the pool pergola?

Prices are rapidly dropping. A 3k system might cost about $13k, based on US avg costs. After the 30% fed subsidy you're down to $9k. Or there are leasing programs.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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