Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

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Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

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Hopefully slowly Baha, we'd miss ya. And with that, I'm really out. See you tomorrow Baha.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Was redeveloping about an hour ago. See ya'll in the morning. Have a great early morning.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting Tribucanes:
Baha what in the seven seas are you doing up??!! You've got to work shortly. :)
Couldn't sleep... shoulder's killing me....
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Quoting BahaHurican:
is convection redeveloping or dissipating?
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NASA's sighting of hot towers indicated Typhoon Vicente's rapid intensification
July 24, 2012


NASA's TRMM satellite captured rainfall data on Typhoon Vicente on July 23, 2012. Vicente had mostly light to moderate rainfall - seen in the yellow, green and blue areas, where rain was falling between 20 and 40 millimeters (.78 to 1.57 inches) per hour. However, some heavy rainfall (falling at 2 inches/50 mm per hour) and hot towering clouds (in red) were seen around the center of circulation. Credit: Credit: SSAI/NASA, Hal Pierce

Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones is still somewhat of a mystery to forecasters, but one marker that NASA scientists confirmed is when "hot towers" appear within a tropical cyclone as they did in Typhoon Vicente before it exploded in strength on July 23. Vicente made landfall in southern China on July 23.

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Gotta be up in five hours. NP
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
HHJ I've been punched in for too long.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Good Morning All From America's Left Coast! Is the night crew in?
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Baha what in the seven seas are you doing up??!! You've got to work shortly. :)
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
I tip my 40 to your memory WU as we used to be. I'm out, Peace!
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
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I can think of one thing it might ruin..........we may not have a planet suitable for human existence. But that, I guess, is what the next 10-20 years will determine in large part. Global Warming doesn't go up incrementally, it's like riding a one way escalator; it only goes up and you get there quickly.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
1572. Patrap
Climate Change Effects: Things Global Warming Just Might Ruin For Your Kids
Posted: 07/24/2012 11:45 pm


The continental U.S. has just experienced the hottest 12 month period in recorded history. The West is on fire. The Maldives are going underwater and California can expect a sea level rise of six inches in less than 20 years.

An increasing number of studies are making the connections between human activities, climate change and a rise in extreme weather events. While it is difficult to point to climate change as causing a single weather event without in-depth research, patterns are emerging.

Scientists warn that climate change will bring an increase in heat waves, droughts, floods and worsening storms. Not a rosy forecast for our future, let alone our children's future.

From chocolate to our favorite island getaways, a variety of studies suggest that many of the things and places that we most enjoy may be gone if we stay on this path. Below is a list of some of the things that may be changed or ruined for future generations based on suggested effects of climate change. There is an element of speculation in this list, as predictions are difficult to determine.

What do you think will be ruined for your kids due to climate change? Tweet us what #climatechangeruins for future generations, and we may include it in our slideshow below!
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Quoting Tribucanes:
NW Atlantic satellite shows a really strong center of circulation still. Thinking maybe 60-70% chance by morning if evolution continues as it has so far through the night.
It just need convection and persistence to have Ernesto out of it.
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Patrap the picture you posted with "never heard of him" was just priceless. Literally laughed for minutes. Wish you didn't take it down, because that was hilarious!
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting BahaHurican:
2001 was the first season I followed using a computer. My best memory of that season was watching Michelle get shredded as she crossed Cuba. By the time she passed south of us [well over us, really, since the eye was so huge] her eye was around 60 m in diameter. That was a freaky storm; prior to the arrival of the eye, we had torrential downpours, and our street was a river. After the eye passed, we got almost no more rain, but the wind was so strong that it basically blew the water off the street. By the time the wind had subsided, the street, which had been under 8-10 inches of water during the eye passage, was basically dry. I only can say things would have been much worse here if Michelle hadn't been moving so fast and simultaneously beginning a transition to extratropical. [Also Thank God for Cuba...]

I wonder where I put the photos I took...


tl;dr
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NW Atlantic satellite shows a really strong center of circulation still. Thinking maybe 60-70% chance by morning if evolution continues as it has so far through the night.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
1567. Patrap
98L Long Floater - Rainbow Color Imagery Loop
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Well if it's trying to re-fire convection now it's probably got a little better than 50/50 shot of making it. Would be nice to have a storm to opine on for TWC's fist day of ownership.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
1565. Patrap
98L WV

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If I hurt myself laughing Patrap you'll be hearing from my lawyer.
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today is the day we will know if 98L is destinied to become Ernesto or not.
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1562. Patrap
Never heard of Him.

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LOL Patrap, want to insert Walker in my response, but I'm guessing that's not going to be kosher anymore. :)
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1560. Patrap
Quoting Tribucanes:
Thanks Patrap but I'm in Wisconsin. :)


Sorry to hear that then.

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Wouldn't that be something? Had to refresh myself on what that actually is. Wouldn't that lessen our chances of a developing wave off of Africa?
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting Bluestorm5:
114 HR: Still something over Africa?



Saharan Thermal Low?
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Thanks a lot to you too Patrap, you've been one of the most informative here in my opinion. Skyepony is at the top too. Always great information and she never enters the political arena. Smart Lady. Too many here to name for me. You know who you are, thanks so much for kindness, respect, and your great knowledge. Pensacola Doug, if you feel as you feel, then stick to your guns. I can respect that. I don't fit any political mold here like so many of us. This is really like a family to me. I appreciate just being able to be here.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
1556. Patrap


Hurricane Preparation 2012
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A big shout out to Jeff Masters! He's been leading the charge against a hurricane of those who didn't want him to. What great posts, great insight, and great striving after truth. Who, in his position, answers almost all questions to him personally? A great and selfless man. I hope this gets forwarded to the morning crew. Didn't hear it said today, so I'll say it now; thank you so very very much Jeff!
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
1554. pcola57
Quoting Tribucanes:
The game may be chess, and we may be but pawns; but God's playing with all Queens.


Had to clean up that comment..a ban for 48 or so..not worth it right now.. :)
And your right God has it in Queen's(or spades depending on your game... :)
I'm gone for the night
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Checkmate coming.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
1552. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
well lets see how it goes

iam out for the night see ya all after 8 am
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
I, for one, welcome our new TWC overlords
You should welcome them with a meme.
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1550. pcola57
Quoting Tribucanes:
Waiting for TWC to post something on the blog welcoming us to the machine. Just had to get a Floyd song into the sentence; seeing how it's been one of the themes of the week.


Well put..
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1549. pcola57
Quoting Patrap:
To those new owners up in Bains and Blackstones Ivory tower.


A word of caution

,,please Handle us with care.

We family.

Been beat up and battered 'round
Been sent up, and I've been shot down
You're the best thing that we've ever found
Handle Us with care

Reputations changeable
Situations tolerable
Baby, you're adorable
Handle Us with care

I'm so tired of being lonely
I still have some love to give
Won't you show Us that you really care

Everybody's got somebody to lean on
Put your body next to our's, and dream on

I've been fobbed off, and we've been fooled
I've been robbed and ridiculed
In day care centers and night schools
Handle Us with care

Been stuck in airports, terrorized
Sent to meetings, hypnotized
Overexposed, commercialized
Handle Us with care

I'm so tired of being lonely
I still have some love to give
Won't you show Us that you really care

Everybody's got somebody to lean on
Put your body next to our's, and dream on

I've been uptight and made a mess
But I'll clean it up myself, I guess
Oh, the sweet smell of success
Handle Us with care











Traveling Wilbury's..Always made me smile..loved those guy's.. :)
Edit:(Well..gonna call it a rant well done now and edit out some things... :)
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1548. MrMixon
Beautiful storm just rolled over. I'll blow to the east and see if I can't get some of that rain out to the scorched plains...



See y'all on the other side.
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Good night everyone
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Still 40%
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 20
MPH AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS LATER TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Patrap, you've got more rhymes than a bottle's got soul.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Waiting for TWC to post something on the blog welcoming us to the machine. Just had to get a Floyd song into the sentence; seeing how it's been one of the themes of the week.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
1543. Patrap
To those new owners up in Bains and Blackstones Ivory towers.


A word of caution

,,please Handle us with care.

We family.

Been beat up and battered 'round
Been sent up, and I've been shot down
You're the best thing that we've ever found
Handle Us with care

Reputations changeable
Situations tolerable
Baby, you're adorable
Handle Us with care

I'm so tired of being lonely
I still have some love to give
Won't you show Us that you really care

Everybody's got somebody to lean on
Put your body next to our's, and dream on

I've been fobbed off, and we've been fooled
I've been robbed and ridiculed
In day care centers and night schools
Handle Us with care

Been stuck in airports, terrorized
Sent to meetings, hypnotized
Overexposed, commercialized
Handle Us with care

I'm so tired of being lonely
I still have some love to give
Won't you show Us that you really care

Everybody's got somebody to lean on
Put your body next to our's, and dream on

I've been uptight and made a mess
But I'll clean it up myself, I guess
Oh, the sweet smell of success
Handle Us with care









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Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
1540. Patrap
Just awoken from a 4 hour nap.

I'm preparing to write a new Entry for me own blog.

Or Not.

: )

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How's the night going for ya Patrap? Hope your well!
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
I haven't had cable now for nearing a decade. When I get the chance to watch cable it's often TWC. While I enjoy the nuts and bolts of climate and weather, their programming is pretty cool too for the CASUAL weather lover. Still would love to see them dedicate just one hour a day to the ins and outs of weather and climate. Late at night if need be, but like a master's course in meteorology and climatology. I get my information from all over the world. I consider myself lucky to not have cable most days.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
I, for one, welcome our new TWC overlords
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Quoting allancalderini:
Hope it can I really want that thing to be designate as Ernesto. I know it chances will be down at the next two but maybe they will be increase later.
Prolly, but you never know. Im staying up to see what they say and then I will go to bed. Sever threat over the Great lakes today with a wind, hail, and tornado threat.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
1535. pcola57
Quoting Patrap:
Fresca anyone?


To you very good health,sir..bottoms up.. :)
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Good night Civicane. Wunder if 98L can make convection continue to increase.
Hope it can I really want that thing to be designate as Ernesto. I know it chances will be down at the next two but maybe they will be increase later.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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