Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

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Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting yoboi:


they think it's some sort of noise that windmills generate that attracts birds and bees...

So that's how you connected this to love bugs.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Ernesto at 5pm?
A) Yes
B) No


B.
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Gordon Lightfoot seems to be rising
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5885
Not sure if this was posted before but...

Greenland Ice Melt, Measured By NASA Satellites, Reaches Unprecedented Level
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Uh--what? Colony Collapse Disorder is due to one or more of a variety of factors--pesticide use, GMOs, a virus, a runaway predator. But one thing that is most definitely not causing the bees to go away is "flying into windmills and dying".

Here's a polite suggestion: turn off Fox and read a science book. It'll do you a lot of good...


Priceless! I laughed hard at this one. What dipstick would attribute bee population decline to wind turbines? LOL!
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Ernesto at 5pm?
A) Yes
B) No




mor elike 11pm if at all
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Ernesto at 5pm?
A) Yes
B) No

B.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's a funny thought, for sure. But the thing is, all that stored heat energy will be released come fall and winter. The question is, will it be released harnlessly and slowly over weeks or months? Or will all that power be quickly tapped by one or more intense superstorms such as the one that sank the fabled Edmund Fitzgerald?

We'll find out over the next six months...




will find out
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Great eyesight does not make intelligence
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5885
Ernesto at 5pm?
A) Yes
B) No
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Hurricane Chris:


98L:


Strikingly similar.
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Quoting yoboi:


they think it's some sort of noise that windmills generate that attracts birds and bees...


Seems to be color that plays a role in attracting insects, and therefore birds and bats that eat the insects.Link
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Widespread winds/hails reports across Triangle right now. I just saw 3 lightnings while making quick trip to local store. Winds is 20+ mph right now. No downpour yet.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8027
Quoting 69Viking:


I find it hard to believe that Eagles with extremely good eye sight are flying into windmills. If they can see and avoid power lines running all over the country how in the world can't they see those huge windmills???


They play a game of chicken. How close can you get to the blade without getting chopped off.

Chicken, haha.
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Quoting yoboi:


i hear ya windmills just compound the problem...
By 0.5% of total bird deaths.  That's not much compounding. 
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Quoting washingtonian115:
So how do you like your crow?.I personally liked mine fried with some A1 steak sauce topping.
Never ate a crow......But. I watched "Chopped" on the Food network yesterday.....They had "black" chicken.......I almost barfed up a water spout..
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5885
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Me too buddy!
from the discussion:
THIS WOULD
SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS GROWING UPSCALE INTO
AN MCS ACROSS LOWER MI INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WED EVENING/NIGHT.
PRIMARY RISK APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WIND...BUT LARGE HAIL AND A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
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.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Ok...so is Invest 98L being renumbered to 05L? I am gonna be eating crow for the blog update I wrote at 4 AM this morning...
So how do you like your crow?.I personally liked mine fried with some A1 steak sauce topping.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17071
Quoting yoboi:


the cell phones make them fly into windmills??? the article i am looking for did not say why they are flying into windmills...i am still looking


I find it hard to believe that Eagles with extremely good eye sight are flying into windmills. If they can see and avoid power lines running all over the country how in the world can't they see those huge windmills???
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Quoting yoboi:


the cell phones make them fly into windmills??? the article i am looking for did not say why they are flying into windmills...i am still looking


...all the evidence points to pesticides in bee colony collapse. It states is pretty clearly in the article I posted, but that's fine. Windmills have been shown to kill birds and bats, as well as attract insects by use of lighting, but they are not the cause of colony collapse.
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LOL Yobi. I watch Fox news often and it has nothing to do with me liking them. When my Father joined the Tea Party and started only watching Fox about four years ago, he changed into someone I no longer know. He blindly believes everything the Right feeds him and thinks modern scientists are dumb and don't have a clue about GW. When someone's mind and heart are hardened to the truths that surrounds them then they become virtually unreachable. So many won't even seek truth, it's far more cozy to have it fed to you by those seeking to distort the truth. He's never looked at the FACTS. And yet he tells me he knows far more than climate experts. (literally) Talk about a face palm. He is a very smart man, I am so confused by his skewed world view now.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting 69Viking:


I'll have to remember to give that a try, thanks!
I have a Jeep Wrangler that is square in front........Makes a better target for the connected love bugs.. What a way to go....
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5885
Quoting wxchaser97:
Just got back from getting a tooth pulled:(
I see we got 98L and a severe threat taking shape.
98L:


Severe threat tomorrow, Im in the 30% risk area!

Me too buddy!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
98L is likely Ernesto by now...
Looks pretty good right now.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Just got back from getting a tooth pulled:(
I see we got 98L and a severe threat taking shape.
98L:


Severe threat tomorrow, Im in the 30% risk area!


*Sigh* Nothing for me tomorrow other than surgery for wisdom teeth removal. Not even a chance of a thunderstorm to catch up with our average for rain on the year.

I already know what it is like to have teeth removed since my mouth is too small for all my teeth...

Maybe at the next update we'll see a TD for the pre-Ernesto.
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Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15649
Quoting Tazmanian:





if things be come toogeter this right we could be looking at a TS fourming overe the lakes with water temper this warm
That's a funny thought, for sure. But the thing is, all that stored heat energy will be released come fall and winter. The question is, will it be released harnlessly and slowly over weeks or months? Or will all that power be quickly tapped by one or more intense superstorms such as the one that sank the fabled Edmund Fitzgerald?

We'll find out over the next six months...
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Quoting Civicane49:

Ok...so is Invest 98L being renumbered to 05L? I am gonna be eating crow for the blog update I wrote at 4 AM this morning...
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Love bugs are seasonal......... And they stink...I have been told to spray Pam on the front of the vehicle before a trip...And, I have been told that dryer sheets will remove the bugs later


I'll have to remember to give that a try, thanks!
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Quoting yoboi:
By Darryl Fears, Published: August 28, 2011The Washington Post Six birds found dead recently in Southern California’s Tehachapi Mountains were majestic golden eagles. But some bird watchers say that in an area where dozens of wind turbines slice the air they were also sitting ducks.

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is investigating to determine what killed the big raptors, and declined to divulge the conditions of the remains. But the likely cause of death is no mystery to wildlife biologists who say they were probably clipped by the blades of some of the 80 wind turbines at the three-year-old Pine Tree Wind Farm Project, operated by the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power.

159
Comments

Weigh InCorrections?Recommend Tweet Personal Post
.As the Obama administration pushes to develop enough wind power to provide 20 percent of America’s energy by 2030, some bird advocates worry that the grim discovery of the eagles this month will be a far more common occurrence.

Windmills kill nearly half a million birds a year, according to a Fish and Wildlife estimate. The American Bird Conservancy projected that the number could more than double in 20 years if the administration realizes its goal for wind power.

And cats kill up to a billion birds each year.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/roaming-cats-kill-billio n-birds-year-american-bird/story?id=13194701#.UA76 zaD-1R0

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Quoting jeffs713:

So will a strong stream of water at an oblique angle.
oblique?
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5885
98L is likely Ernesto by now...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17071
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Love bugs are seasonal......... And they stink...I have been told to spray Pam on the front of the vehicle before a trip...And, I have been told that dryer sheets will remove the bugs later

So will a strong stream of water at an oblique angle.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Read what I said again.

I didn't say today, but multiple generations.

The expectation of severe droughts or desertification is a problem for many insects because they require liquid water for their eggs or larva, or because they feed on other insects and small organisms who are in the same case.


You need to consider what type of insect and whether there are changes occurring with their prey or predators.

Also, it's not a good thing if destructive PEST insects such as ants, termites, or pine beetles are increasing.

Ever notice those black "Love Bug" insects are gone? I haven't seen one of those things in years. I think the Mosquito mitigation project for West Nile has had the added benefits of eliminating these creatures, but I wonder what else it's killing?


Come to NW Florida in May and then in the Fall around October, you'll find no shortage of the love bugs that's for sure. Take a road trip that time of year and the front of your vehicle is black and very difficult to get clean!
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Quoting yoboi:


come to louisiana in about a month and i will show ya where all the love bugs went...
Love bugs are seasonal......... And they stink...I have been told to spray Pam on the front of the vehicle before a trip...And, I have been told that dryer sheets will remove the bugs later
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5885
98L:

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Quoting RTSplayer:


Read what I said again.

I didn't say today, but multiple generations.

The expectation of severe droughts or desertification is a problem for many insects because they require liquid water for their eggs or larva, or because they feed on other insects and small organisms who are in the same case.


You need to consider what type of insect and whether there are changes occurring with their prey or predators.

Also, it's not a good thing if destructive PEST insects such as ants, termites, or pine beetles are increasing.

Ever notice those black "Love Bug" insects are gone? I haven't seen one of those things in years. I think the Mosquito mitigation project for West Nile has had the added benefits of eliminating these creatures, but I wonder what else it's killing?


So true, after the warm winter my local news stations were calling for an increase in number of bugs but I have hardly seen any. Bees, wasps, flies, ticks, and chiggers are all way down in my area. The moderate to extreme drought we had most likely played a factor. Only the spiders are doing okay and that is a slight surprise since they eat bugs. That means more outside time in the 90-95 degree heat for me- wooh!

I haven't see any "love bugs" either but then again I haven't seen mosquitos since early spring when we had that warm spell. I've hardly used bug spray this year, but that's a good thing.

On the ants and termites, it sounds like they are becoming more of a western problem as the pine beetle heads out there in lieu of the recent wildfires. In my area it seems they have all packed their bags and headed west, there isn't any remaining.
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AL982012 - INVEST

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery Loop

click image for Loop

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Quoting yoboi:



really the windmills are the cause, they are still studying why certain insects fly into windmills and die even birds are dying...i will let the experts decide why they are attracted to windmills....when they furnish the report i will send it to ya...


Here's an article from The New Yorker Link that discusses three major published studies relating colony collapse to pesticides, more precisely, a group of pesticides called neonicotinoids. Read up.

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Quoting RTSplayer:


Ever notice those black "Love Bug" insects are gone? I haven't seen one of those things in years. I think the Mosquito mitigation project for West Nile has had the added benefits of eliminating these creatures, but I wonder what else it's killing?

They moved to Texas. Drive on any major highway between cities, especially in September-October... just be sure to take your car to a car wash right after.
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Just got back from getting a tooth pulled:(
I see we got 98L and a severe threat taking shape.
98L:


Severe threat tomorrow, Im in the 30% risk area!
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Deleted
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.