Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

Share this Blog
40
+

Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 784 - 734

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33Blog Index

Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Fox News is pure journalism compared to the rest of the liberal media. The spin is so bad on ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, etc. it is ridiculous.


They sure have you guys programmed well. You forgot to call us the liberal elite, however.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Plenty warm in the GOM, if something spins there long enough who knows. Getting some pretty good afternoon thunderstoms compliments of the spin here in NW Florida.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Convection has weakened some, but not much:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7948
Quoting BahaHurican:
I said it this a.m..... if the GFS is threatening the Bahamas with it, it's going to be Florence... lol

yeah I remember that you say the F were the worst and I say the M and P.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1572
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...ERN NC...FAR NERN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241946Z - 242115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE...AND FILL
IN OVER SERN VA...ERN NC AND PERHAPS NERN SC. A NEW WATCH IS LIKELY
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITHIN THE HOUR.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WLY SURGE INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG AN AXIS FROM RIC SWWD INTO CNTRL NC. VIGOROUS
STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER NC...WITH NEW
DEVELOPMENT NOW INTO SERN VA. STRONG INSTABILITY/HIGH
PWAT...SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/LONG LIVED SEVERE AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO A DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL THREAT WITH THESE STORMS UNTIL THEY EXIT THE COAST.

..JEWELL/HART.. 07/24/2012


our area at 4000 cape
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As expected, St. Louis has reached 105, the 10th day this year it's done so, tying the record for most days in a year at 105 or higher. The forecast calls for 107 tomorrow, but then there'll a brief one-week respite before such temps return.

Hot"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bardeyes:

Please....we need a storm to track...NOW...  Please weather goddess, help us down here
Bardeyes............Just curious..........Where do you live that you feel we need a storm?
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5932
Quoting Tribucanes:
Fox rules the ratings, misinformation rules the day, as we get further from truth; we get closer to collapse. Thanks Fox and affiliates!


Fox News is pure journalism compared to the rest of the liberal media. The spin is so bad on ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, etc. it is ridiculous.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wiki:

The Passenger Pigeon or Wild Pigeon (Ectopistes migratorius) was a bird that existed in North America until the early 20th century when it became extinct due to hunting and habitat destruction. The species lived in enormous migratory flocks.[2] One sighting in 1866 in southern Ontario was described as being 1 mile (1.61 kilometres) wide, 300 miles (483 kilometres) long, and taking 14 hours to pass a single point with number estimates in excess of 3.5 billion birds in the flock. That number, if accurate, would likely represent a large fraction of the entire population at the time.[3][A][4]

Some estimate that there were 3 billion to 5 billion Passenger Pigeons in the United States when Europeans arrived in North America.[B] Others argue that the species had not been common in the Pre-Columbian period, but their numbers grew when devastation of the American Indian population by European diseases led to reduced competition for food.[C]

The species went from being one of the most abundant birds in the world during the 19th century to extinction early in the 20th century.[5] At the time, Passenger Pigeons had one of the largest groups or flocks of any animal, second only to the Rocky Mountain locust.

Some reduction in numbers occurred because of habitat loss when the Europeans started settling further inland, especially as it was accompanied by mass deforestation and conversion of habitat to farming. The primary factor emerged when pigeon meat was commercialized as a cheap food for slaves and the poor in the 19th century, resulting in hunting on a massive and mechanized scale. There was a slow decline in their numbers between about 1800 and 1870, followed by a catastrophic decline between 1870 and 1890.[6] Martha, thought to be the world's last Passenger Pigeon, died on September 1, 1914, at the Cincinnati Zoo.

This was Martha, the very last Passenger Pigeon.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26889
774. yoboi
Quoting PensacolaDoug:





FOX rules the ratings. MSNBC iand NBC are the two least accurate and spiteful and dishonest news orgs out there. However, ABC is trying to join them by trying to tie the massacre to the Tea Party.


that was sad that ABC did that right after the shootings...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2403

Quoting washingtonian115:
Lololol.We may soon.Just a few more hours.
Your lips to the goddess's ear.
Member Since: September 23, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
MDR is getting better suited to develop tropical waves from Africa.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting floridaboy14:
hate wasting names on this high latitude storms.hope they dont name this despite the fact it looks better than before. ernesto should be that wave off africa
I said it this a.m..... if the GFS is threatening the Bahamas with it, it's going to be Florence... lol

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:





FOX rules the ratings. MSNBC iand NBC are the two least accurate and spiteful and dishonest news orgs out there. However, ABC is trying to join them by trying to tie the massacre to the Tea Party.



Fox may rule the ratings, but their viewers are the least informed... Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Civicane49:





that is 3hrs old and olny update evere 3hrs your showing us nothing new


am not sure how this updates but this would be better too ues


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
Quoting Bardeyes:

Please....we need a storm to track...NOW...  Please weather goddess, help us down here
Lololol.We may soon.Just a few more hours.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17485
Quoting PensacolaDoug:





FOX rules the ratings. MSNBC iand NBC are the two least accurate and spiteful and dishonest news orgs out there. However, ABC is trying to join them by trying to tie the massacre to the Tea Party.


If CNN was smart, they would move to the center-right in order to take viewers from Fox News. There is no market for straight liberalism.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
766. yoboi
Quoting Tribucanes:
I think I have a half million birds in my backyard Yobi. :) I've seen my cats swat at bees too, if they're wiping out a billion birds a year; one only can imagine the sheer terror and death cats inflict on bees yearly. So now we know, windmills and cats are public enemy #1. Had to Yobi, but you bring up an interesting point. If it's sound that's drawing the bees up into the blades then that would be scientifically provable easily enough. Wouldn't be the reason for their collapse but could be yet one more obstacle the bees don't need. Wonder if there's a scientific article on the subject of bees being drawn to the sound.


i can take the jabs...i don't take anything personal i actually like debates i think pesticides are killing more bees than windmills based on differ articules...but i am still looking no true facts either way just yet..
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2403
Fox rules the ratings, misinformation rules the day, as we get further from truth; we get closer to collapse. Thanks Fox and affiliates!
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting floridaboy14:
hate wasting names on this high latitude storms.hope they dont name this despite the fact it looks better than before. ernesto should be that wave off africa
they name Danny of 2009 franklin gert and Jose of 2011 why not these one?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting PensacolaDoug:





FOX rules the ratings. MSNBC iand NBC are the two least accurate and spiteful and dishonest news orgs out there. However, ABC is trying to join them by trying to tie the massacre to the Tea Party.
Please....we need a storm to track...NOW...  Please weather goddess, help us down here
Member Since: September 23, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
Quoting floridaboy14:
hate wasting names on this high latitude storms.hope they dont name this despite the fact it looks better than before. ernesto should be that wave off africa

IKR. Don't mean to wishcast but High-Latitude storms get boring after a while.

Cape-Verde Storms > High-Latitude storms
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Ok...so is Invest 98L being renumbered to 05L? I am gonna be eating crow for the blog update I wrote at 4 AM this morning...
that is what is amazing about weather at one moment it looks like its dissipiting and the next that is a ts.weather is full of surprises , and that is what I like of it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
click on FRONTS and MSLP

Gulf Of Mexico - Visible Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
756. yoboi
Quoting RTSplayer:



And did they contrast this by how many birds die each year from acid rains, or toxic clouds from our existing power plants


as i read differ articles looks like more bees are thought to be killed by pesticides than wind mills....nothing is a fact with either one but by the amount of articules i would have to go with pesticides...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2403
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Or careless fishermen with their careless disposal of mono filament line? Ever see a turtle or a pelican entwined in fishing line.........So sad
Bringing it up
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5932
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Maybe yes, maybe no

If convection continues and it detaches then it forms, so 11pm at the earliest.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7959
hate wasting names on this high latitude storms.hope they dont name this despite the fact it looks better than before. ernesto should be that wave off africa
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
98L 19:45 UTC Viz

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting 69Viking:


I find it hard to believe that Eagles with extremely good eye sight are flying into windmills. If they can see and avoid power lines running all over the country how in the world can't they see those huge windmills???
If the windmills are killing them it has to be because of some weird distortion in the wind field...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:



And did they contrast this by how many birds die each year from acid rains, or toxic clouds from our existing power plants
Or careless fishermen with their careless disposal of mon filament line? Ever see a turtle or a pelican entwined in fishing line.........So sad
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5932

Quoting RTSplayer:



And did they contrast this by how many birds die each year from acid rains, or toxic clouds from our existing power plants
Or lead poisoning in large raptors.  Oh...wait a minute.... 
Member Since: September 23, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
leftover.t.w.in.ne.gulf.is.stationary.maybe.tomorro w
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
98L:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
..Once I thought I saw you, in a crowded hazy bar, dancing on the light from star to star..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
744. yoboi
Quoting Naga5000:


Seems to be color that plays a role in attracting insects, and therefore birds and bats that eat the insects.Link


i am trying to see why eagles are also getting killed...
Quoting Naga5000:


Seems to be color that plays a role in attracting insects, and therefore birds and bats that eat the insects.Link

Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2403
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Ernesto at 5pm?
A) Yes
B) No


B
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Quoting yoboi:
By Darryl Fears, Published: August 28, 2011The Washington Post Six birds found dead recently in Southern California’s Tehachapi Mountains were majestic golden eagles. But some bird watchers say that in an area where dozens of wind turbines slice the air they were also sitting ducks.

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is investigating to determine what killed the big raptors, and declined to divulge the conditions of the remains. But the likely cause of death is no mystery to wildlife biologists who say they were probably clipped by the blades of some of the 80 wind turbines at the three-year-old Pine Tree Wind Farm Project, operated by the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power.

159
Comments

Weigh InCorrections?Recommend Tweet Personal Post
.As the Obama administration pushes to develop enough wind power to provide 20 percent of America’s energy by 2030, some bird advocates worry that the grim discovery of the eagles this month will be a far more common occurrence.

Windmills kill nearly half a million birds a year, according to a Fish and Wildlife estimate. The American Bird Conservancy projected that the number could more than double in 20 years if the administration realizes its goal for wind power.




And did they contrast this by how many birds die each year from acid rains, or toxic clouds from our existing power plants
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7959
Quoting wxchaser97:

B
maybe 11pm EDT
Maybe yes, maybe no
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5932
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Ernesto at 5pm?
A) Yes
B) No

B
maybe 11pm EDT
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7959

Quoting hurricanejunky:
Not sure if this was posted before but...

Greenland Ice Melt, Measured By NASA Satellites, Reaches Unprecedented Level
Faster and faster. 
Member Since: September 23, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
Quoting bappit:

So that's how you connected this to love bugs.
wondering also........Maybe Neil Young could help us out
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5932


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1572
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...ERN NC...FAR NERN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241946Z - 242115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE...AND FILL
IN OVER SERN VA...ERN NC AND PERHAPS NERN SC. A NEW WATCH IS LIKELY
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITHIN THE HOUR.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WLY SURGE INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG AN AXIS FROM RIC SWWD INTO CNTRL NC. VIGOROUS
STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER NC...WITH NEW
DEVELOPMENT NOW INTO SERN VA. STRONG INSTABILITY/HIGH
PWAT...SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/LONG LIVED SEVERE AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO A DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL THREAT WITH THESE STORMS UNTIL THEY EXIT THE COAST.

..JEWELL/HART.. 07/24/2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
734. yoboi
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Priceless! I laughed hard at this one. What dipstick would attribute bee population decline to wind turbines? LOL!


the same one that contributes it to bird decline..
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2403

Viewing: 784 - 734

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
38 °F
Partly Cloudy