Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

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Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

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834. washingtonian115
8:29 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
We won't see Ernesto by 5p.m.Because we would likely have a renumber by now.Maybe code red at 70-80% chance.It did develop at a pretty good clip.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17087
833. wxchaser97
8:29 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
Updated tracking map by me (NOT OFFICAL)
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
832. Patrap
8:28 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
It was 43 years early this morning that Apollo 11 Splashed down in the Pacific near the USS Hornet.









Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128661
831. Tribucanes
8:28 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
I've said my piece, no more politics for me today.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
830. Bluestorm5
8:28 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
Got to love politics...

Sarcasm Flag: ON
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8030
829. TropicalAnalystwx13
8:28 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 513
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
425 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 425 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO 60 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF NORFOLK
VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 509...WW 510...WW
511...WW 512...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AND ARE FORMING OVER SOUTHEAST VA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH CAPE VALUES AND SUFFICIENT WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN
THE STRONGER STORMS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.


...HART
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
828. jeffs713
8:27 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


maybe you are just what we need....

Nah, I just would stir it up more. Have to do work *and* school this afternoon.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5885
827. wxchaser97
8:27 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
It does look good though, hmmmmm...
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
826. kwgirl
8:27 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
Quoting Patrap:




Patrap, looks like the GOM might be trying to brew something? Thanks for posting that.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
825. GeorgiaStormz
8:27 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:
I go away for 30 minutes, and return to see the blog has gone into the crazy zone.

Maybe I came back too early?


maybe you are just what we need....
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
824. Tazmanian
8:26 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
keep the politics off the main blog plzs if you want too talk politics there other blogs too go too
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
823. PalmBeachWeather
8:25 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
Quoting Tribucanes:
Shooter wasn't inspired by the Tea Party for sure. Ever heard of Monarch Slaves? Put the Batman shooter's name in with monarch slaves and find the tip of what's really happening. I've been studying this for over a decade, this is no joke. I'm not a fan of the Left. (If it feels good do it agenda) I am personally disgusted by the moral decline of the West. I hold the Left mostly responsible for that. The Right though I feel is dangerous. They have brought us to the brink, they lie endlessly for agenda purposes, and have consolidated all real power in America away from the people.
I wasn't going to get into the gun laws, or the proposed gun laws.......BUT, I must say this......... "IF A BAD GUY WANTS A BIG GUN, LAWS ARE NOT GOING TO STOP HIM OR HER FROM GETTING A BIG GUN" ... Ok, That's all I have to say on that subject
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5888
822. Patrap
8:25 PM GMT on July 24, 2012




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128661
821. Bardeyes
8:24 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
Removed by poster.
Member Since: September 23, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
820. Bluestorm5
8:24 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
The worst of this storm missed us, but I still have 25 mph winds for 10 minutes gusting up to 45 mph.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8030
818. jeffs713
8:24 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
I go away for 30 minutes, and return to see the blog has gone into the crazy zone.

Maybe I came back too early?
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5885
817. wxchaser97
8:24 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


ill have to do that soon.
i really dont want to...
You dont really want to, just got one pulled and my right side of my mouth is numb.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
816. washingtonian115
8:24 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
Quoting Bardeyes:
Central plains -- no rain in 32 days it's its 103 out.  I was also referencing the impending FIXNews debate.
Is that PalmBeachWeather again?.Just leave him alone :).You fell for the bait.I would much rather have a storm to track like 98L than see destruction.Not to mention..stop all this political talk on a..WEATHER/GW BLOG!!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17087
815. kwgirl
8:24 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
You guys stop talking politics so I don't have to add to my list. Hot here in the Keys today, just to stay on topic.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
814. yoboi
8:24 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
how do ya post a youtube video on here??? found a video with bee killing an windmills.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2344
813. Tazmanian
8:24 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
Quoting Civicane49:


Agreed.




i wounder wish way per 91E would head looks too be going in too CA and up N
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812. ncstorm
8:24 PM GMT on July 24, 2012


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15669
811. Civicane49
8:23 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
Be back later.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
810. Patrap
8:23 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
The Guy who use to be President of the Weather Channel who disputed AGW left 7 years ago.



John Coleman is an American TV weatherman noted, along with entrepreneur Frank Batten, for founding The Weather Channel. He presently works as an on-camera weather forecaster at KUSI-TV in San Diego but is no longer affiliated with The Weather Channel.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128661
807. Civicane49
8:22 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:



may be come 91E soon



but it looks likey it may not have marh time


Agreed.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
806. PalmBeachWeather
8:21 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


ill have to do that soon.
i really dont want to...
I had that done last month......It isn't too bad like it was 30 years ago
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5888
805. ncstorm
8:21 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
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804. blsealevel
8:20 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
This is an intresting artical who knew

Link
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
803. GeorgiaStormz
8:20 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
Quoting Astrometeor:


*Sigh* Nothing for me tomorrow other than surgery for wisdom teeth removal.


ill have to do that soon.
i really dont want to...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
802. BahaHurican
8:19 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
Quoting floridaboy14:
hate wasting names on this high latitude storms.hope they dont name this despite the fact it looks better than before. ernesto should be that wave off africa
I think we're okay with saying a high latitude name is wasted, but even 75 years ago those high latitude storms would have been right in the middle of the main shipping lane which provided transport between Europe and the US / Canada... therefore worthy of being named. It's all a matter of perspective...

I also think it's kinda funny that on Saturday we were desperate for an invest - any invest - and today we picking, choosing, and refusing... lol...

Quoting PensacolaDoug:





FOX rules the ratings. MSNBC iand NBC are the two least accurate and spiteful and dishonest news orgs out there. However, ABC is trying to join them by trying to tie the massacre to the Tea Party.
[sigh] Politics... u guys r so wrong... I'm here trying to break my addiction, and ya'll just keep enabling me...

Hmmm... any ties to the Tea Party has to have something to do with guns... and frankly, I don't think ANY political organization in the US can be said to have clean hands on that matter. If there's one issue that Americans should be able to agree on, it's that the general public do NOT need access to semi-automatic and automatic rifles... only thing anybody hunts with them is people. I still can't figure out how not being allowed to have one is an infringement of 2nd amendment rights...

See, I told u guys I'm a recovering politics junkie...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
Day 5 HPC 1012MB!!:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Civicane49:


I was beginning to notice that.



may be come 91E soon



but it looks likey it may not have marh time
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
Quoting PensacolaDoug:





FOX rules the ratings. MSNBC iand NBC are the two least accurate and spiteful and dishonest news orgs out there. However, ABC is trying to join them by trying to tie the massacre to the Tea Party.


nobody is neutral anymore.
msnbc doesnt even try to not spin the news someway or another far beyond what actually happened.
CNN is best IMO

but let me not get into that and get banned
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting Neapolitan:
As expected, St. Louis has reached 105, the 10th day this year it's done so, tying the record for most days in a year at 105 or higher. The forecast calls for 107 tomorrow, but then there'll a brief one-week respite before such temps return.

Hot"


Thunderstoms have cooled us off some but at 2:05 pm we hit 95 degrees today with 74% humidity, I'll take 105 and your 25% humidity over 95 with 74% humidity!
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Quoting Bardeyes:

And I was also referencing the impending FIXNews debate.
Explain please.I am lost with your post
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Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15669
Quoting Tazmanian:
this looks better then 90E




I was beginning to notice that.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
My weather station in backyard is saying 33 mph at peak from WSW. My handheld anemomenter is saying 40.7 mph.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8030
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


When ABC, CBS, etc. only try to make Obama look good aftert he (Obama) has destroyed this country, Fox does not need to convince me at all.
Myself...I never talk politics among friends or at work.......It never, ever, turns out well
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5888
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Bardeyes............Just curious..........Where do you live that you feel we need a storm?
Central plains -- no rain in 32 days it's its 103 out.  I was also referencing the impending FIXNews debate.
Member Since: September 23, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
this looks better then 90E


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Convection has weakened some, but not much:



Agreed.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Naga5000:


They sure have you guys programmed well. You forgot to call us the liberal elite, however.


When ABC, CBS, etc. only try to make Obama look good aftert he (Obama) has destroyed this country, Fox does not need to convince me at all.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Just got back from getting a tooth pulled:(
I see we got 98L and a severe threat taking shape.
98L:


Severe threat tomorrow, Im in the 30% risk area!


Oh wow, we haven't had a severe shading this area in a while. Bring the rain!!! (And hail I guess...)
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Quoting Naga5000:



Fox may rule the ratings, but their viewers are the least informed... Link


Did you look at the numbers? All of the numbers are within the poll's margin of error; therefore, the poll is not an accurate reflection of the level of education of the viewers. Besides, the difference between worst and first is so insignificant it does not matter.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Fox News is pure journalism compared to the rest of the liberal media. The spin is so bad on ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, etc. it is ridiculous.


They sure have you guys programmed well. You forgot to call us the liberal elite, however.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.