Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

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Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, your numbers were high in the first place for an El Nino year...lol.
But for a reason... lol

Connected to the idea that el nino onset might not happen as quickly as expected...

Quoting washingtonian115:
The 5 p.m hasn't come out?.
Nothing until 8 p.m., unfortunately.

Quoting Pocamocca:

Trolled for giving an opinion on a news outlet?? Really? No, that's not trolling, buddy. That's just getting off topic.

I suppose though if he shared the same views as you, he wouldn't be a troll, right??...
Do you fish, dear? IIRC, trolling basically means running a bit of attractive bait through the water and seeing if a fish takes it... So I mean the verb, not the noun, I guess is another way to put it. I've known PDoug for a while... he's no troll.
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this was released 22 hours ago, here's a portion of the announcement..tomorrow we shall see what else is said.........................The Weather Channel Companies Acquire Weather Underground



The Weather Channel Companies (TWCC) today announced an agreement to acquire Weather Underground, a leading provider of Web based weather data. The transaction, terms of which were not disclosed, was announced by TWCC chairman and CEO David Kenny and Weather Underground president Alan Steremberg and is expected to close in several weeks.

"Everyone in the weather space is familiar with the strength of Weather Underground and its innovative method of presenting weather data. Weather Underground will add a great complementary, brand to our portfolio, a brand with a distinct, loyal, and active user base that will enable us to reach a unique segment of users," said Kenny. "Most importantly, this acquisition will grow the weather expertise that is central to everything we do and will result in better forecasts and weather data for users on all of our platforms."

"Becoming a part of The Weather Channel Companies will enable us to strengthen what our users love about wunderground.com, our apps and our blogs," said Steremberg. "We see this as a great opportunity to grow."

Weather Underground's popular site wunderground.com and its portfolio of mobile applications will continue to operate and its employees will become a part of TWCC, furthering the company's place as the leading provider of the most accurate weather data across all platforms serving consumers and business users. In addition, Weather Underground's San Francisco headquarters will become a regional office for TWCC. Blackstone Advisory Partners L.P. served as TWCC's financial advisor in the transaction and Kilpatrick Townsend & Stockton LLP acted as legal advisor. Weather Underground was advised by Digital Capital Advisors, LLC.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
Quoting jeffs713:

I'll get on that once I get my next door neighbor to clean out their above ground pond... I mean pool that is almost as green as my grass, and breeding legions of mosquitoes.

I really like the idea though, and it would be awesome for all involved once it gets going.


Get a bt tablet and heave it into the pool.

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3 More Big Irish Bankers arrested the last 24 hours.

24 July 2012

Sean FitzPatrick is third ex-Anglo Irish Bank executive to be arrested in 24 hours


Former Anglo Irish Bank chairman Sean FitzPatrick has been arrested at Dublin airport

Related Stories

Former bank executives in court

Profile: Anglo Irish Bank

Ex-boss of Irish bank arrested

The former head of Anglo Irish Bank, Sean FitzPatrick, has been arrested by Irish police in connection with alleged financial irregularities at the bank
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
Busiest day we've seen here in awhile.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This second wave is starting to look quite impressive.



98L is done I think... It probably was a TS earlier and may still be now but convection is diminishing fast so if they didn't name it earlier they won't do it now.

Edit: I see Gro beat me to post the wave train.


While everybody keeps their little finger on the F5 button for the NHC, I keep my on my globe. Don't feel bad. You've posted some good ones.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
It bad now!!
..be careful down there its a bad one.........................SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
510 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

FLC099-242130-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-120724T2130Z/
PALM BEACH FL-
510 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY...

AT 508 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR THE ACREAGE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI. OR YOU CAN
ALSO CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI DIRECTLY AT
305.229.4528 TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 2673 8037 2675 8037 2694 8026 2687 8008
2668 8021
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 212DEG 12KT 2675 8024

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Weather Channel has updated their seasonal outlook from 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes to 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.


They'll soon come around to my way of thinking. I'm sticking with my original numbers from April!
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I have a theory that the -PDO could be causing these cut-off developments in the Atlantic. The warmer than normal temperatures throughout the entire Atlantic have been common ever since the AMO went positive 20 or so years ago. If we look at the global SST anomalies, we see what happens during a -PDO. A very large, permanent ridge of high pressure sets up across the North-Central Pacific ocean. The large dome of high pressure causes mainly tranquil conditions across that area of the ocean, resulting in well above normal SSTs underneath.



Downstream from there, off the West Coast of North America, troughing is fairly persistent due to the near permanent ridge of high pressure upstream over the North-Central Pacific. Going further east, a large area of anomalous ridging sets up across the Central United States, which in turn promotes more toughing in the extreme Eastern part of the United States. With the persistent troughing along the Eastern United States coastline, you have more opportunities for the A/B high to move in and cause pieces of the trough to cutoff from the main flow. These cut-off pieces of energy then form into areas of low pressure that sometimes spin up into hybrid/tropical cyclones given the right upper level conditions.

Again, this is just my theory. I could be dead wrong. However, when the PDO went negative, it seems like these sorts of "tropical" developments became increasingly common. Fire away.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10247
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
@wralweather

Strong winds continuing across Wayne county - just got word of a 62 mph wind gust at the Goldsboro airport right at 5pm.


Well, it's pretty windy here today in NC I guess.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8009
Cool!
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
On the Intracoastal.... Near College Park
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
98L is experiencing DMIN.

good lol cody you know how i feel about these systems :) and by the way my first predictions for the season on june 1st were 13-6-3 and i guess the weather channel stole my idea :)
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The style of the attacks and the planning and booby trapping of the apartment is very similar to the Dark Knight movie version of the Joker, while his costume was more like Ras Al Ghul, apparently.


actually he resembled the SWAT that would inevitably show up on the scene.
Except he messed it up
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Geez, my internet is freaking out this afternoon...

It'd been dropping the signal every few minutes since I got here...

:o(

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Quoting Pocamocca:


Ouch, look at Des Moines. I am at 93 down here in Tennessee...
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 100 Comments: 10277
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wellington Where are you??
On the Intracoastal.... Near College Park
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5863
98L is experiencing DMIN.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
Quoting Chapelhill:
Central NC was hit pretty hard with 60+ mph winds. I'm just in from cutting downed trees on the UNC campus. Looks like the warnings are posted well ahead of the storms as they move into Eastern NC due to the outflow wind threat.
I didn't get bad storms in JoCo, so I think I was spared. However, I did have 40.7 mph wind measurement. Can't imagines how strong the winds are in the actual storms.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8009
Wellington Where are you??
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
SFL.......Where are you? Looks bad to my west
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This second wave is starting to look quite impressive.



98L is done I think... It probably was a TS earlier and may still be now but convection is diminishing fast so if they didn't name it earlier they won't do it now.

Edit: I see Gro beat me to post the wave train.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
It bad now!!
SFL.......Where are you? Looks bad to my west
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5863
Doesn't look like much to me. :)

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It bad now!!
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Very strong thunderstorms in western Palm Beach county..... Looks like the Acreage and Jupiter Farms.......Be safe
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Weather Channel has updated their seasonal outlook from 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes to 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
not.good.added.a.major
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Central NC was hit pretty hard with 60+ mph winds. I'm just in from cutting downed trees on the UNC campus. Looks like the warnings are posted well ahead of the storms as they move into Eastern NC due to the outflow wind threat.
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$$
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
417 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

TXZ229>231-239>244-242130-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-WEBB-DUVAL-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-
SAN PATRICIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTULLA...CALLIHAM...CROSS...
LOMA ALTA...TILDEN...GEORGE WEST...THREE RIVERS...LAREDO...
FREER...BENAVIDES...SAN DIEGO...ALICE...ORANGE GROVE...
KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...PORTLAND...INGLESIDE...
ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...MATHIS
417 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 107 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...

THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
60S TO LOWER 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND
107 DEGREES TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...BRUSH COUNTRY
AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. RESIDENTS WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED
ARE URGED TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LIGHT
COLORED CLOTHING...AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT. YOUNG
CHILDREN AND PETS SHOULD NEVER BE LEFT UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES
UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING WARM OR
HOT WEATHER WHEN CAR INTERIORS CAN REACH LETHAL TEMPERATURES IN A
MATTER OF MINUTES.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Very strong thunderstorms in western Palm Beach county..... Looks like the Acreage and Jupiter Farms.......Be safe
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5863
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
338 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

LAZ030>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ201-215-216 -261-262-250000-
BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-
ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE RIDDER...OAKDALE...KINDER...
VILLE PLATTE...MAMOU...OPELOUSAS...EUNICE...LAKE CHARLES...
SULPHUR...JENNINGS...WELSH...LAKE ARTHUR...CROWLEY...RAYNE...
CHURCH POINT...LAFAYETTE...BREAUX BRIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE...
ABBEVILLE...KAPLAN...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...FRANKLIN...
PATTERSON...BERWICK...BAYOU VISTA...STEPHENSVILLE...HACKBERRY...
HOLLY BEACH...CAMERON...GRAND CHENIER...LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...
BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY...BUNA...
DEWEYVILLE
338 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE...

AT 3:30 PM...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS RECEIVED A COUPLE OF
REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY OF I-10 IN BEAUMONT
TEXAS.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE OVER THE AREA IS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN COOLED
BOUNDARIES...KNOWN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND THE SEABREEZE
COLLIDE.

THESE TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE USUALLY SHORT-LIVED AND DO NOT
REACH THE GROUND. IF THE FUNNEL CLOUD BECOMES MORE SEVERE AND
REACHES THE GROUND...MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR...AND A TORNADO
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
FOR me!!! A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5:30PM EDT
..yes there is a warning out for there..be careful and stay safe ok
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Quoting Pocamocca:

How does it skew the numbers. Don't they count. They were part of this season, right?

You make a forecast, you stick to it. They aren't the only ones eating crow, I can assure you on that.


Yup of course they count but with a 1.7 storm average for the June/July period, if the earlier forecasts took that mean into account this year, then the might increase their initial forecast by 1-2 as well. That was my point.



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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nah, I just factored in two-three frontal storms. :D


Yeah, yeah. I bet.

Seems like this is becoming the norm, so I may just have to like it. Something is causing these things to occur more frequently. I'm not sure we can totally blame it on SST anomalies either.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10247
Quoting Grothar:


It's globe time 09!!
We're nearing that time of year again! :) Good to see you Gro.

Quoting MississippiWx:


Well look who it is, guys. It's about time you crawled out from under your rock again!
LMAO, I come from under the rock when the NHC whips out the crayons lol. Good to see you MissWX.
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FOR me!!! A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5:30PM EDT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
943. yoboi
Quoting jeffs713:

Don't eat the yellow snow, actually.

My point is... everyone starts with good intent, someone goes a little outside the box, then everyone adjusts. Then someone goes a little more outside the box, and it becomes a cascade of bad things that end in parents being called (the banhammer), and all of us not being allowed to play with the cool stuff.


gw is a hot topic both sides have passion with there views...I think DR M understands that, i am sure he's been in a few hot debates himself...he prob views it this way, atleast people are talking about it and with more an more people talking about chances are something will get done....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2335
Hopefully administration will be giving us an update on the rules of the road enforcement. I would really like to see them post that any political discussions between 8AM to 12PM will be removed and a 24hr given. And when any storm forms that could even possibly make landfall all political discussion is banned. Really hard to tell what is allowed and not here lately. Just hope they give us some clarity and consistency. Interestingly I've notice that the Left and Right here are just about the same in number, that's pretty cool. Love of weather and climate is one thing we can all agree on. Many of our best bloggers on both sides of the isles could be in trouble here if we don't dial it back. If WU started removing all political statements during the main part of the day and giving bans for each comment; then it would stop very quickly. I never just put political statements out there, I'm reactionary; I'll work on that.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
Quoting washingtonian115:
The 5 p.m hasn't come out?.


I think the 5:00 comes out at 8:00.
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

NYC027-242115-
/O.CON.KALY.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-120724T2115Z/
DUTCHESS NY-
445 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN DUTCHESS COUNTY...

AT 439 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR NORTH CLOVE...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF PAWLING...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
DOGTAIL CORNERS...BAKER CORNER AND HURD CORNERS BY 450 PM EDT...
QUAKER HILL BY 455 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV OR
ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY. GOV.

&&

LAT...LON 4159 7367 4167 7377 4184 7372 4178 7357
4175 7352 4162 7351 4153 7352 4152 7353
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 304DEG 31KT 4167 7357
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
While everyone is talkin bout the storms in the mid atlantic also some nasty storms in the middle of the country:
The National Weather Service in Glasgow has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
eastern Dawson County in northeast Montana...
northern Wibaux County in northeast Montana...
southern Richland County in northeast Montana...

* until 330 PM MDT.

* At 252 PM MDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail... and
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located near
Intake... or 17 miles northeast of Glendive... and moving northeast
at 25 mph.

* Locations in the warning include...
Savage

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

This is a dangerous storm. If you are in its path... prepare
immediately for damaging winds... destructive hail... and deadly cloud
to ground lightning. People outside should move to a shelter...
preferably inside a strong building but away from windows.


Lat... Lon 4758 10420 4724 10422 4719 10463 4737 10468
time... Mot... loc 2055z 240deg 20kt 4732 10451
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Quoting washingtonian115:
U MAD?.lol.Their is likely more to come this year.
I apologized washington...I spoke out of line ,and spoke too much........... sorry
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5863
Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, your numbers were high in the first place for an El Nino year...lol.

Nah, I just factored in two-three frontal storms. :D
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
Quoting Tazmanian:
guys keep the political crap off the main blog if you want too talk political there other blogs too go too all so you can start your own and you can talk about it has marh has you like but kee that crap off the main blog
starting tommorow it will be weather channel/wunderground taz and i bet there will be alot allowed that never was and admin will go the way of the dinosaurs and the weather channel will become the new admin and main control of things
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.