Category 4 Typhoon Vicente hits China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

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Typhoon Vicente powered ashore about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Macao, China Monday at 19:30 UTC as a dangerous Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. The typhoon brought sustained winds of 58 mph with a peak wind gust of 83 mph to Hong Kong, and sustained winds of 55 mph with a peak wind gust of 76 mph to Macao. No deaths are being blamed on the typhoon, but 118 were injured, and the storm is dumping very heavy rains over Southeast China that will cause serious flooding.


Figure 1. Radar image of Vicente at landfall 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Hong Kong, China. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Figure 2. Firemen investigate the collapsed scaffolding caused by typhoon Vicente at a residential building in Hong Kong Tuesday, July 24, 2012. The strongest typhoon to hit Hong Kong in 13 years swirled into southern China as a tropical storm Tuesday, still potent enough for mainland authorities to order the evacuation of tens of thousands of people and warn residents of possible flooding. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

A hurricane forecasters' nightmare
Vicente was an example of a hurricane forecaster's nightmare. In six hours, Vicente strengthened from a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Even twelve hours before this remarkable burst of intensification, there was little indication that Vicente would undergo rapid intensification. It is very fortunate the the typhoon missed a direct hit on the heavily populated areas of Hong Kong and Macao, because there was no time to evacuate all the people who would have needed to leave for the impact of a Category 4 storm--particularly since the storm hit at night. If a similar type of storm were to affect a vulnerable area of the U.S. coast such as the Florida Keys, New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, or Tampa Bay, the death toll could easily be in the thousands. I have great hopes that the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), currently in year three of a ten-year effort aimed at improving hurricane intensity forecasts by 50%, will be able to give us tools to be able to predict rapid intensification events like Vicente's several days in advance. However, we are still many years from being able to predict such events, and the hurricane forecasters' nightmare storm is still a very real possibility.

Atlantic to get more active?
NHC is giving a disturbance along a frontal boundary 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression, but this system is not a threat to any land areas. Recent runs of both the GFS and NOGAPS models have predicted that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa late this week and early next week could show some development. These predictions have not been consistent, but we are getting towards the time of year when we need to start watching the tropical waves coming off of Africa.

Jeff Masters

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1034. LargoFl
Quoting Pocamocca:

Then, help me out. Since our buddies Rush, Sean, and Glenn weren't around as we know them today, was the gullible, educated populace duped once again for having the next ice age scare shoved down our throats 30 years ago....
ok your friggin gonna start the POLITICS which is strictly banned from here..again huh...........poof goodbye
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42116
Quoting LargoFl:
........................................wow look at the SIZE of these hailstones that fell from a storm up in Canada...boy Those would put a hurting on your car huh
Every time I look at one of these pics of hailstones I am glad we don't get them here much...
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1029. LargoFl
........................................wow look at the SIZE of these hailstones that fell from a storm up in Canada...boy Those would put a hurting on your car huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42116
new Severe Thunderstorm Warning for me!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


That's funny because all Global Warming is is politics. There is absolutely no real scientific proof behind global warming. It is a figment of Al Gore's imagination. BTW Al Gore wants to be known for inventing the internet, not global warming.


Scientific FACTS have driven 95-97% of the world's climmatologists to state unequivically that Global Warming is occurring and is primarily the result of human activities.

Disinformation campaigns and a gullible, poorly educated populace have led to the politicization of this issue. The politics of GW are being driven by the well-funded Denialists who have access to media outlets and personalities such as FOX News, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and Glenn Beck.
Member Since: May 2, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 180
Quoting BahaHurican:
Somebody was looking at the d-min as a sign it was written off...

If this gets named, that will mean 4/5 of the storms we've had so far had non tropical roots... IIRC
You got it, 4/5 storms if it develops, its only written off when the low is gone/ no more convection.
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Just a heads up, if I seem irratated its because Im in pain for the next couple days.
I wouldnt ignore 98L now and say its done, its just being affected by dmin.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
When was it ever done, still looking decent right now.
Somebody was looking at the d-min as a sign it was written off...

If this gets named, that will mean 4/5 of the storms we've had so far had non tropical roots... IIRC
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Quoting BahaHurican:
May see something better about 3 a.m. I dont' think it's quite done just yet...
When was it ever done, still looking decent right now.
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Quoting Astrometeor:
If we have another heat wave I will be enjoying my half days during school. Nashville starts Aug. 1st.
I still don't understand why we get off now for extreme heat these days. I remember a couple years ago going to school and coming out at the end to find it easily 96. Now if it is forecasted to hit 95 we get out at noon. The only explanation is school buses don't have AC. That is true. Then I want to know why do we start school on Aug. 1st if the rest of the nation starts after labor day when the temperatures begin to cool. Just a rant from one who is confused about this issue.
They've started closing earlier here in June because of the heat... the students usually don't go back until the first week in Sept ... labor day, iOW... I always thought they made kids go back in August BECAUSE it was so hot...

Who knows...

As it is, I have a bad feeling we're going to lose a few school days in September in at least one part of the archipelago. Schools in the SE islands of the country were damaged by last year's hurricane Irene, but they opened on time.
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Not good!!!!! it going to get bad!!!
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98L:

On an unrelated note, I just got my Skywarn Spotter email just in time for 2 days of severe wx.
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1017. pcola57
Quoting OldLeatherneck:


The announcement was made 22 days ago......not 22 hours ago.

This blog spent the better part of two days discussing TWCs purchase of the Weather Underground.


And my friend I was abroad at the time..
The blog topic has changed quite a bit since then and a few tropical events in between..so to be honest with you I was responding to Post#983..
Thanks.. :)
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weathermanwannabe: The record number of named storms in the early part of the season skews the numbers so to speak
927 Pocamocca: How does it skew the numbers? Don't they count? They were part of this season, right?

Chart from blog2141page20comment968
Tropicsweatherpr:

Lessee 6 plus 8 plus 27 plus 34 plus 17 plus 5 equals 97
Which leaves 3% of the NamedStorms occurring outside of June thru November.
May is outside of June thru November. May's 3% consisted of 2 NamedStorms.
Since June's 6% is twice as much as the 3% in May, then June should have had 4 NamedStorms. June only had 2... leaving June 2 short of filling the average.
July's 8% is 8/3rds of May's 3%, so July should have had 8/3rds of 2 NamedStorms or 5&1/3rd NamedStorms. It's had none so far.

So here we are approaching the end of July, and 2012's AtlanticHurricaneSeason is already almost 7 NamedStorms short of following the average.
If that don' skew things up, I dunno what would.
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watching.three.atl.systems..cv&gulf.and.now.the.eas tern.carib....lots.to.watch.this.yr
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1013. Patrap
Are we being watched by Bain and Blackstone executive's in their Towers ?


I wonder if Al we will be a Lurker, or doing morning post's from your neck of the Woods ?


Vicente

RainbowTop Image


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SVR T'STRM WARNING for me too. :\

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND... BALTIMORE CITY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND... NORTHERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 522 PM EDT... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR COCKEYSVILLE... AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TOWSON... PARKVILLE... CARNEY... HOMELAND... WOODRING... WHITE MARSH... PERRY HALL... MORGAN STATE UNIVERSITY... ROSSVILLE... ROSEDALE...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH... PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS... LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
98L is experiencing DMIN.

May see something better about 3 a.m. I dont' think it's quite done just yet...

Quoting Grothar:


They'll soon come around to my way of thinking. I'm sticking with my original numbers from April!
What were they Gro?

Quoting LargoFl:
this was released 22 hours ago, here's a portion of the announcement..tomorrow we shall see what else is said.........................The Weather Channel Companies Acquire Weather Underground



The Weather Channel Companies (TWCC) today announced an agreement to acquire Weather Underground, a leading provider of Web based weather data. The transaction, terms of which were not disclosed, was announced by TWCC chairman and CEO David Kenny and Weather Underground president Alan Steremberg and is expected to close in several weeks.

"Everyone in the weather space is familiar with the strength of Weather Underground and its innovative method of presenting weather data. Weather Underground will add a great complementary, brand to our portfolio, a brand with a distinct, loyal, and active user base that will enable us to reach a unique segment of users," said Kenny. "Most importantly, this acquisition will grow the weather expertise that is central to everything we do and will result in better forecasts and weather data for users on all of our platforms."

"Becoming a part of The Weather Channel Companies will enable us to strengthen what our users love about wunderground.com, our apps and our blogs," said Steremberg. "We see this as a great opportunity to grow."

Weather Underground's popular site wunderground.com and its portfolio of mobile applications will continue to operate and its employees will become a part of TWCC, furthering the company's place as the leading provider of the most accurate weather data across all platforms serving consumers and business users. In addition, Weather Underground's San Francisco headquarters will become a regional office for TWCC. Blackstone Advisory Partners L.P. served as TWCC's financial advisor in the transaction and Kilpatrick Townsend & Stockton LLP acted as legal advisor. Weather Underground was advised by Digital Capital Advisors, LLC.
Hmmm... first I'm seeing of a suggestion that it's the wx advisory side of Wunderground [i.e. the private market] that might be attracting TWC....

Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Not fair Baha. Trib bad mouthed Fox I just defended it. I don't troll.
I know... it's just that comment was the one that we just couldn't resist... like the perfect fly... lol REally didn't mean the "other" troll... I was thinking about fishing.
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If we have another heat wave I will be enjoying my half days during school. Nashville starts Aug. 1st.
I still don't understand why we get off now for extreme heat these days. I remember a couple years ago going to school and coming out at the end to find it easily 96. Now if it is forecasted to hit 95 we get out at noon. The only explanation is school buses don't have AC. That is true. Then I want to know why do we start school on Aug. 1st if the rest of the nation starts after labor day when the temperatures begin to cool. Just a rant from one who is confused about this issue.
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1009. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42116
Quoting LargoFl:
this was released 22 hours ago, here's a portion of the announcement..tomorrow we shall see what else is said.........................The Weather Channel Companies Acquire Weather Underground


The announcement was made 22 days ago......not 22 hours ago.

This blog spent the better part of two days discussing TWCs purchase of the Weather Underground.
Member Since: May 2, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 180
1007. LargoFl
Quoting pcola57:


I am patient..
We have a GREAT community as it is..
Some very solid bloggers and,IMO,some of the best thinking minds around...
..yes your so right there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42116
1006. LargoFl
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
FRESH-STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 68-82W THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS RUN FURTHER STRENGTHENS THE TRADES
ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY FRI HINTING AT MINIMAL
GALE FORCE. MAINTAINED ENE WINDS AT 30 KT MAX IN GRAPHIC PACKAGE
AS LATEST GFS REVERSED FROM A WEAKENING TO A STRENGTHENING TREND
AND OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE W
CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE WED MOVE W OF THE AREA EARLY FRI THU. A
SECOND WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 65W WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PORTION WED-THU...AND THE W CARIBBEAN FRI-SAT. A
TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE AREA WILL REACH ALONG 35W
FRI...ALONG 40W SAT...AND 45W SUN WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING LOW
PRES DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR AT ABOUT 12.5N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
WITH THE LOW TRACKING WNW REACHING NEAR ABOUT 14N45W SUN.

BLENDED GFS AND ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
..will these waves keep going straight or will they curve into florida and the gulf?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42116
1005. pcola57
Quoting LargoFl:
..lets see what happens and how many changes come down the pike, maybe..as doc said, he will remain in control and we stay as we are, with maybe more new posters coming in, which is good becuase maybe now we will get posters from other parts of the country that maybe we dont have now..lets wait and see


I am patient..
We have a GREAT community as it is..
Some very solid bloggers and,IMO,some of the best thinking minds around...
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We can't just simply blame the SST anomalies in the Atlantic for these high latitude systems. You can go back through the anomaly maps, and ever since the warm AMO started the North Atlantic has been warmer than normal from top to bottom. If these warmer anomalies were the cause, we would have something like this more often than just the last 3 or so years.
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MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
FRESH-STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 68-82W THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS RUN FURTHER STRENGTHENS THE TRADES
ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY FRI HINTING AT MINIMAL
GALE FORCE. MAINTAINED ENE WINDS AT 30 KT MAX IN GRAPHIC PACKAGE
AS LATEST GFS REVERSED FROM A WEAKENING TO A STRENGTHENING TREND
AND OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE W
CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE WED MOVE W OF THE AREA EARLY FRI THU. A
SECOND WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 65W WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PORTION WED-THU...AND THE W CARIBBEAN FRI-SAT. A
TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE AREA WILL REACH ALONG 35W
FRI...ALONG 40W SAT...AND 45W SUN WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING LOW
PRES DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR AT ABOUT 12.5N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
WITH THE LOW TRACKING WNW REACHING NEAR ABOUT 14N45W SUN.

BLENDED GFS AND ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
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1002. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
new Severe Thunderstorm Warning for me!!!!
..yes be careful.................Severe Thunderstorm Warning

until 6:00 p.m. Tuesday, July 24, 2012




Bulletin - Eas Activation Requested

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

National Weather Service Miami Fl

523 Pm Edt Tuesday Jul 24 2012



The National Weather Service In Miami Has Issued A



*Severe Thunderstorm Warning For

Northeastern Palm Beach County In South Florida.



*Until 600 Pm Edt



*At 522 Pm Edt National Weather Service Meteorologists Detected A

Severe Thunderstorm Capable Of Producing Damaging Winds In Excess

Of 60 Mph. This Storm Was Located 4 Miles Northeast Of Royal Palm

Beach And Moving Northeast At 20 Mph.



*The Storm Will Affect

Riviera Beach

Palm Beach Gardens

North Palm Beach

Juno Beach

And Surrounding Communities.



Precautionary/Preparedness Actions



Severe Thunderstorms Produce Damaging Winds In Excess Of 58 Mph And

Or Large Hail. Frequent To Excessive Lightning And Heavy Rainfall Is

Also Possible. If The Storm Approaches Your Location, Seek Shelter In

An Enclosed Building On The Lowest Floor And Stay Away From Windows.



Report Severe Weather Or Damage To The Nearest Law Enforcement Agency

Or Your County Emergency Management. They Will Relay Your Report To

The National Weather Service Forecast Office In Miami. Or You Can

Also Call The National Weather Service In Miami Directly At

305.229.4528 To Report Severe Weather.

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42116
Everyone stay safe from dangerous weather in your parts. See Yall Tomorrow.
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new Severe Thunderstorm Warning for me!!!!
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No biggie, I cant see that anyway. : )
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
2 to 3 inch of rain now wow!!!
..gee you guysd are going to get what we here in the tampa area got the other night..stay safe down there and dont go outside to look..alot of lightning with that cell ok
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42116
Quoting BahaHurican:
He's not just saying it... we were talking about the possibility of early season storms back in late March or early April, IIRC... several of the pple with higher forecast totals were thinking about that.



If some of you thought we would have 4 out of the first 5 named storms to be of non-tropical origin, then we have a pool of little Einsteins. Lol.
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Quoting pcola57:


We shall see.
I have my ignore button well greased..
My subscription is up in a couple of weeks and as much as I would hate to,I might just have to let it go if things here get out of hand.. :(
..lets see what happens and how many changes come down the pike, maybe..as doc said, he will remain in control and we stay as we are, with maybe more new posters coming in, which is good becuase maybe now we will get posters from other parts of the country that maybe we dont have now..lets wait and see
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42116
sorry Patrap, I hit minus instead of plus by accident! my bad!
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Somewhere back someone was posting stuff about wind turbines and bird deaths. A claim that wind turbines are killing half a million birds per year.

Just to set some context.

This paper pulls together all the published studies of bird kills. Raw kill numbers are not what we should look at, but at how many kills per unit (GWh) of electricity produced.

Fossil-fueled facilities are 17 times more dangerous to birds on a per GWh basis than wind power. Wind turbines may have killed about 7000 birds, but fossil-fueled stations killed 14.5 million and nuclear 327,000.

...

This article explores the threats that wind farms pose to birds and bats before briefly surveying the recent literature on avian mortality and summarizing some of the problems with it. Based on operating performance in the United States and Europe, this study offers an approximate calculation for the number of birds killed per kWh generated for wind electricity, fossil-fuel, and nuclear power systems.

The study estimates that wind farms and nuclear power stations are responsible each for between 0.3 and 0.4 fatalities per gigawatt-hour (GWh) of electricity while fossil-fueled power stations are responsible for about 5.2 fatalities per GWh. While this paper should be respected as a preliminary assessment, the estimate means that wind farms killed approximately seven thousand birds in the United States in 2006 but nuclear plants killed about 327,000 and fossil-fueled power plants 14.5 million. The paper concludes that further study is needed, but also that fossil-fueled power stations appear to pose a much greater threat to avian wildlife than wind and nuclear power technologies.


Link

Taller, slower spinning wind turbines (like we are now installing are less dangerous to birds).

BTW, about a billion birds each year die from colliding with windows. A billion is 2,000x larger than half a million.
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, yeah. I bet.

Seems like this is becoming the norm, so I may just have to like it. Something is causing these things to occur more frequently. I'm not sure we can totally blame it on SST anomalies either.
He's not just saying it... we were talking about the possibility of early season storms back in late March or early April, IIRC... several of the pple with higher forecast totals were thinking about that.

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Quoting Pocamocca:

You must be far East in the mountains???


Nope, I live in Nashville. Forecast calls for 97 for tomorrow, though. We have a heat advisory since the dewpoint is fairly high from our recent rains.
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Quoting LargoFl:
this was released 22 hours ago, here's a portion of the announcement..tomorrow we shall see what else is said.........................The Weather Channel Companies Acquire Weather Underground



The Weather Channel Companies (TWCC) today announced an agreement to acquire Weather Underground, a leading provider of Web based weather data. The transaction, terms of which were not disclosed, was announced by TWCC chairman and CEO David Kenny and Weather Underground president Alan Steremberg and is expected to close in several weeks.

"Everyone in the weather space is familiar with the strength of Weather Underground and its innovative method of presenting weather data. Weather Underground will add a great complementary, brand to our portfolio, a brand with a distinct, loyal, and active user base that will enable us to reach a unique segment of users," said Kenny. "Most importantly, this acquisition will grow the weather expertise that is central to everything we do and will result in better forecasts and weather data for users on all of our platforms."

"Becoming a part of The Weather Channel Companies will enable us to strengthen what our users love about wunderground.com, our apps and our blogs," said Steremberg. "We see this as a great opportunity to grow."

Weather Underground's popular site wunderground.com and its portfolio of mobile applications will continue to operate and its employees will become a part of TWCC, furthering the company's place as the leading provider of the most accurate weather data across all platforms serving consumers and business users. In addition, Weather Underground's San Francisco headquarters will become a regional office for TWCC. Blackstone Advisory Partners L.P. served as TWCC's financial advisor in the transaction and Kilpatrick Townsend & Stockton LLP acted as legal advisor. Weather Underground was advised by Digital Capital Advisors, LLC.


We shall see.
I have my ignore button well greased..
My subscription is up in a couple of weeks and as much as I would hate to,I might just have to let it go if things here get out of hand.. :(
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more coming!!
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2 to 3 inch of rain now wow!!!
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, your numbers were high in the first place for an El Nino year...lol.
But for a reason... lol

Connected to the idea that el nino onset might not happen as quickly as expected...

Quoting washingtonian115:
The 5 p.m hasn't come out?.
Nothing until 8 p.m., unfortunately.

Quoting Pocamocca:

Trolled for giving an opinion on a news outlet?? Really? No, that's not trolling, buddy. That's just getting off topic.

I suppose though if he shared the same views as you, he wouldn't be a troll, right??...
Do you fish, dear? IIRC, trolling basically means running a bit of attractive bait through the water and seeing if a fish takes it... So I mean the verb, not the noun, I guess is another way to put it. I've known PDoug for a while... he's no troll.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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